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Israel under attack from Hamas

Sounds like the reports of an explosion in Tehran were false. Looks like the only thing happening in Tehran is celebration.

Guess we'll have to wait a few hours, but I'd bet money that this ends with a dull thud. Israel's defenses are likely to intercept most if not all of the drones, and Iran is only going to embarrass themselves. Israel's counterresponse is going to be much more damaging than Iran's.
 
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Israel thinks they are killing 2 civilians for every 1 combatant killed, at least at the outset. They also estimated about 30k Hamas fighters were in Gaza when this started. assuming fighters have more access to safe areas than families, it's tough to say.


I also think of the so-called "terrorist math" during this. the US, from its own experiences, surely has this in mind when demanding more Israeli discretion.

"In 2009, General Stanley McChrystal pushed the conversation in that direction. He pointed to the counterintuitive aspects of terror recruiting. Calling it "COIN Mathematics," he laid out his argument. "Let us say that there are 10 [insurgents] in a certain area. Following a military operation, two are killed. How many insurgents are left? Traditional mathematics would say that eight would be left, but there may only be two, because six of the living eight may have said, 'This business of insurgency is becoming dangerous so I am going to do something else.' There are more likely to be as many as 20, because each one you killed has a brother, father, son and friends, who do not necessarily think that they were killed because they were doing something wrong. It does not matter you killed them. Suddenly, then, there may be 20, making the calculus of military operations very different."
Late last year I read About Face about Col David Hackworth. Hackworth was being fast tracked until he said the quiet part to the press, we were fighting Vietnam wrong and would lose. The book reports Hackworth saying often that the worst tools in COIN warfare are planes and artillery because both create more insurgents than they kill.

Hackworth was allegedly the basis for Duvall's character in Apocalypse Now. I don't know what Israel knows that he didn't, but his analysis is pretty much what COIN experts today repeat.
 
Who knows as to the complete veracity of this but it is a little more comprehensive than most articles I've read this morning:

Iran is kind of like the Maltese that always gets in my Bernese mountain baby’s face when we go for a walk.

Nipping at your heels. Until you have to smack them.
 
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Intersectional, identitarian social-justice folks (read: woke) already won here in the U.S. The day after October 7th, despite what you note, we had thousands marching in the streets against Israel, some outright supporting Hamas.

But there's nothing to worry about. Just some GOP-created bogeyman.
You sound like some others. None of that has anything to do with those supporting Palestine. It’s much more than that and much deeper. There are lots of Muslims in the US for one thing. This has been going on for centuries and so have the alignments.
 
That is very stupid.
You really want to start a nuclear war?
C'mon Dan...
No, that's the point - I don't want a nuclear war. I don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons. They're near to having them and that scares me - a lot.
 
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Who knows as to the complete veracity of this but it is a little more comprehensive than most articles I've read this morning:

You know, I think, at some point, Iran will run low on munitions and money to support their proxies. This may have been their last blast, knowing full well we and the Israelis can knock them out of the sky.

Iran knows they're in no danger of attack by Israel or the US if they just stop the terrorism and violence. They've probably run through a lot of money and their proxies may be getting tired of getting the snot knocked out of them.

My prediction - for what it's worth - is that this whole thing is going to wind down soon. They've already accomplished a lot of what they want by basically making Iraq their puppet state and being able to export their oil. They're not going to destroy Israel and they know it. Hamas is in the process of being destroyed. Hezbollah knows they're next if they try anything.

If Iran is smart, they'll take their money off the table and go home.
 
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Don't want to brag, but I told y'all so.


Just a complete faceplant by Iran. Makes their whole "This is over now" bit extra stupid. I won't blame Israel for retaliating, but at this point, Israel could back off, and say, "You know what? Yeah, this is over" and still look like the winner.
 
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Don't want to brag, but I told y'all so.


Just a complete faceplant by Iran. Makes their whole "This is over now" bit extra stupid. I won't blame Israel for retaliating, but at this point, Israel could back off, and say, "You know what? Yeah, this is over" and still look like the winner.
I think they didn't want to hit anything. Slow moving drones from that far? I think they did something for internal consumption, we struck them, while hoping to prevent any retaliation.
 
Don't you think if Israel were capable of destroying Iran's nuclear production, they'd have already done it?
Right. It's too far ....

The Iraq mission taxed the limits of the F-16 at the time, it was gutted to make it lighter and they had to fly low to the ground to avoid AD. Range has been improved for most US made planes using conformal tanks and air defense has also improved ... It would be tough to get anything other than stealth in there or maybe a huge missile barrage?

IAF getting the F-35 changes the game a bit but .. it's still too far away without refueling at least once . It could be done, maybe? If anyone could pull it off it would be the IAF.

They would probably need a B-2/B-21 or equivalent... Or go full stupid and send a nuke.
 
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