Israel under attack from Hamas
- Thread starter JamieDimonsBalls
- Start date
Marv, I'm not rewarding anyone. That's just ridiculous. I was drawing a comparison between WWII atrocities and those of 10/7.For Germany, you are rewarding them for trying to make killing efficient. They made many concentration camp internees write letters to those not yet sent saying how wonderful it was and how well treated they were. That was to make it easier to capture them later, if everyone fled and hid it would be far harder.
I am less familiar with Japan but they published a story about two officers having a contest to see who could behead 100 Chinese with their sword faster.
The Japanese Press
Read an excerpt of a story published in the Japanese press about two Japanese soldiers' brutal actions in China.www.facinghistory.org
But yes, for the most part they downplayed Nanking and Korea. Largely I suspect for the same reason as the Germans. Trying to fight the whole world means hopefully doing it one at a time.
You are in some kind of pissing match with CoH about which is worse. It doesn't matter which is worse, but the brazenness of 10/7 ought to be so abhorrent that it sets it as unique in modern history.
I was in that match because he was so into saying that 10/7 was obviously worse and anyone who thinks otherwise is antisemitic. Somewhere here I said I would have NO complaints in saying both are equally savage and hateful.
I didn't mean rewarding in any way other than if you discount Germany for not videoing what they did, meaning they aren't as bad, that is discounting them for wanting to make it easier to kill people. That's why they had people write letters home about how wonderful it was, they wanted to make it easier to get to them later. I don't think that makes them less cruel, mean, or hateful. It just makes them more efficient. I am not sure a more efficient killer is less hateful.
Oh well, clearly this isn't something leading to any agreement so I'm tapping out. It is all horrible, I don't see any way to grade one as clearly worse than another (assuming we don't use scale). They are horrible.
OK, I get what you're saying. I don't think the posts on this board are the results of anti-Semitism (edit: except for Jimbo), but I certainly think it's a big part of the national discussion.
And when we try to say "well, WWII was just as bad", it's almost like "Well, it's not that bad because it's happened before".
I like him. I’ve posted about him before.
I’m uncomfortable with the no free will concept though
It is tough, but I heard a physicist explain it once in terms of Einstein's block universe and between that and where I am in Sapolski's book it is getting hard to think it is wrong.
If Einstein is right, everything has already happened.
Sapolski is right. I just don't like it. No one really does. I think he admits that it's built into us to think we have agency.
..... after another one of their terrorist commanders was blown up.
Biden finally grew a pair, it appears. Glad it finally happened after over 120 attacks on our troops.
doesn’t matter. All he’s got to do is hit the button that posts the tweet. Just like that. Voila. Takes no thinking or talent.
What’s the deal with this? Should I be pissed or just GOP disinformation?
It would fit with Palestine not being an ethnic group that is separate from all their other neighbors in the region. What it does fit is that up until the British mandate they were always just members of a greater Empire who saw people moving back and forth across the same areas because at the time they were all "Ottoman" (or any of the former Muslim Empires to control the region). Then one day when it became politically useful to do so, they created a new identity for themselves. You can't expect that new identity to be verifiably different from most of your other Arabic Influenced/Islamic neighbors in the region because you really aren't any different from them.
She is trying to get 23 and me to conform to her worldview and it won't happen because that "Levantine" she would probably like to claim as "Palestinian" is going to be found all over Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and likely parts of Iraq as well because people in an empire are transient. It would be like a Floridian 150 years from now seeing all these Midwestern markers in their DNA and saying, "This can't be right. We are Floridians for generations." Yeah, but there is a thing called human migration....
And genetically speaking, a lot of Israelis are Eastern European. So what? National identity can't be defined by genetic, precisely for the reasons you mentioned, among others.
Agree. I think we both agree the woman is making a stupid request. The reason the Jews have Eastern European markers is because that is where many of them ended up after their long ago ancestors were expelled from Judea.
You're intentionally ignoring my point? The claim that Palestinians are really just Egyptians and Jordanians also can't be backed up by the genetics. Nationality and ethnicity are socio-linguistic identities. Trying to find a scientific basis for them is always wrong, no matter what side of an argument you're on.
I
I just wish rational people would come together and denounce the use of ancestral heritage in current political and moral debates. It’s stupid. And yet, both the Jews and the Palestinians do it.
Yep. My personal test told me that years ago. Unless of course you are a Senator from Massachusetts.
U.S. (and others) policy towards the Middle East reinforces using ancestral heritage to solve the problem. Blinken reiterated that in the last couple of months.
That would be ideal. At the moment I'm setting my sights lower with pseudo-scientific justifications for it.
I think there are justifications, but they are 100% cultural-emotional. If you are looking for scientific or pseudo scientific, you’ll never find it.
In the ME, there is too many inconsistencies in ancestry, we need to just go with practicality. This is why I’m now firmly in the one state solution camp. I’ve picked a side.
No, for this specific girl she had genetic markers with people who came from Egypt and the "Levant" generally. She is pissed that there isn't a "Palestinian" identified marker and that is because no such thing exists. There doesn't appear to be a Syrian, Jordanian, or Lebanese marker either because they are all Levantine.
Egyptian markers and Levantine markers don't exist, either. It's all determined by how the testing company decides to categorize people. None of it is inherently meaningful.
It is meaningful to the extent that I have markers that are going to be shared by a bunch of people in England and Germany because a bunch of my ancestors came from those areas.
It has some value but I don't think it can be used to claim ownership of something in the here and now.
Yes, but do you identify as English or German? Can I come along and say American isn't a real identity, because we are all really just a mix of English and German (and Irish and Italian)? No, that would be stupid. It's equally stupid to claim genetics show Palestinian isn't a real ethnic or national identity.
These are simply not questions for genetics to answer. The people who thought genetics could answer those questions are not the kinds of people we want to emulate.
Cultural-emotional? Yes, people — as a hard rule — tend to be emotionally attached to their cultures.
What the hell is an inconsistency in ancestry in this context?
ME has been the crossroads of the world for humans since before Homo sapiens left Africa. It’s spawned or been engulfed by untold numbers of nations and peoples. It’s never going to fit into your simplistic worldview. You’ll never dumb it down that much. Can’t be done.
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You're taking the wrong lesson out of this. The two state solution is the practical one. There are two communities there, like it or not.
One side has repeatedly rejected that two state solution. That has been the case since before the creation of modern Israel and it remains the case to this day. And that rejection has always been to their detriment.
I still remain unconvinced it is the practical solution given the current attitudes of one of the parties (a video example of which I posted above). I still haven't seen a convincing argument that it would work without the complete overhaul of the Palestinians entire cultural belief system.
The Palestinians rejected that deal because they thought they would someday get all of their land back. They honestly thought Israel would eventually fall. Early on, much of the world did. Their wants have changed as the reality has changed.
You can’t externally overhaul a cultural belief system unless you deny its practice. That’s a never ending road to try to walk down. Best you can do is work to relieve the stressors.
Sorry, that was sloppy of me. I was speaking only in the context of this insane debate about DNA. CO.H tried to draw some really strange connection between what I said about DNA and his conclusion that the one-state solution is the right outcome, and that just doesn't follow. Quite the opposite.
There might be good reasons why the two-state solution is untenable, but the genetic makeup of Palestinian Arabs isn't one of them.
Paradox: If there is no free will, there's really no good reason for you to be bothered by it, and yet you don't really have any choice in the matter.
New content from ISW today…
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-5-2024
An end to Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip will not on its own stop Iranian escalation because Iran’s effort to expel the United States from the region and decrease US influence transcends the war. Iran and its partners are using the Israel-Hamas War as a rhetorical cover to pursue their strategic objectives of decreasing US influence in the region by escalating against the United States politically and militarily.[5] Iran and its proxies are using a two-pronged political and military approach to evict US forces from Iraq, for example.[6] This is one step in Iran’s larger goal to expel the United States from the entire Middle East.[7] The attacks in the Bab al Mandeb demonstrate that Iran and its Houthi partner could shut down both the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al Mandeb—a long-held aspiration for both parties that is independent of the Israel-Hamas War.[8]
The United States cannot ignore Iranian and Iranian proxy escalations in the Middle East out of the desire to avoid being drawn into a regional “quagmire.”[9] Iranian-backed attacks in the Red Sea threaten vital shipping lanes and are already affecting global trade. The Iranian-backed Houthi movement has forced global shipping giants to divert shipping away from the Bab al Mandeb.[10] Thirty-three percent of global shipping transits the Bab al Mandeb, meaning that Houthi attacks in the Bab al Mandeb generate global effects that cannot be ignored.[11] Iran’s campaign to expel US forces from Iraq would have dire implications for the defeat of ISIS, for example, an organization that remains committed to attacking the US homeland and retains considerable capability to do so. The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would benefit ISIS by preventing US support to the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). The ISF still faces deficiencies in intelligence, logistics, and fire support.[12] The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would also require the US to end operations in Syria because US forces in Syria rely on Iraqi bases for their logistics and other support. CTP-ISW continues to assess that ISIS would likely resurge within 12-24 months in Syria without a US force presence and then threaten Iraq.[13]
The commercial shipping looks like a Houthi win (thus far) given … Gen Jack Keane thinks the sources of these attacks need to be eliminated.
The shipping company Maersk announced on January 5 that it would divert its ships around the Cape of Good Hope for the foreseeable future.[74] Maersk cited security risks, which is a reference to Houthi attacks that have repeatedly targeted the company’s ships.[75] The company paused shipping through the Red Sea on January 2 after it briefly restarted the route on December 24, when the US established Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial traffic through the Red Sea.[76] Maersk alone accounts for roughly 17 percent of global shipping.[77]
India’s Defense Ministry said that it would provide protective escorts for Indian container ships in the Red Sea on January 05.[78] An Iranian one-way drone damaged a commercial vessel off the coast of India on December 23.[79] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the attack was likely part of Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s efforts to signal their capability and willingness to attack maritime targets beyond just the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.[80] Houthi drones also struck an Indian-flagged Saibaba in the Bab al Mandeb strait on December 23.[81]
Iranian officials and state media are emphasizing a longstanding regime narrative that the United States created ISIS to blame the United States and Israel for the January 3 terrorist attack in Kerman City, Iran. Two members of the Afghan branch of the Islamic State—named Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)—detonated suicide vests during a ceremony on January 3, 2024, commemorating IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani’s death in a US airstrike in 2020.[59] ISKP claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement on January 4.[60] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency claimed that Israel “ordered” ISKP to claim responsibility for the attack to “escape the consequences” of committing the attack.[61] Tasnim further claimed that Mossad wrote the statement that ISKP released on January 4. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami similarly claimed that ISIS fighters can only act as “agents” of the United States and Israel during a funeral ceremony for the victims of the attack in Kerman City on January 5.[62] The Iranian regime's claim that the United States created ISIS long precedes the Kerman terrorist attack. Regime officials have claimed repeatedly in recent years that the United formed, trained, and provided funding to ISIS to sow instability in the region and harm Iran.[63]
I found these lines bizarre … and more detail than US Network news …
The Iranian Intelligence Ministry announced on January 5 that security forces arrested 11 individuals in six provinces in connection to the January 3 terrorist attack.[64] The ministry confirmed that suicide bombers carried out the attack and revealed that one of the bombers was a Tajik national who had traveled from abroad to conduct the attack.
Ebrahim Raisi administration officials continued to discuss the January 3 terrorist attack with their foreign counterparts on January 4 and 5. President Raisi discussed the attack with his Turkmen and Serbian counterparts in separate phone calls on January 4.[65] Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the attack in separate phone calls with his Qatari, Sri Lankan, Syrian, and Turkish counterparts on January 4 and 5.[66] Abdollahian emphasized the need for regional countries to cooperate to combat terrorism.
Iranian state media is downplaying the connection between Afghanistan and the January 3 terrorist attack. IRGC-affiliated media highlighted that 12 of the victims of the terrorist attack were Afghan nationals and claimed that Iran and Afghanistan share a “blood bond” and “shared grief.”[67] IRGC-affiliated media also described Iran and Afghanistan as “not two nations, but one nation.” Iranian state media previously accused anti-regime outlets of trying to stoke tension between Iran and its neighbors by claiming that one of the suicide bombers in the January 3 attack was a Pakistani national who previously attempted to carry out an attack in Afghanistan.[68]
And a new map … X are brigades (XX is a division)
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/NATO_Military_Map_Symbols#Infantry_Units
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-5-2024
An end to Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip will not on its own stop Iranian escalation because Iran’s effort to expel the United States from the region and decrease US influence transcends the war. Iran and its partners are using the Israel-Hamas War as a rhetorical cover to pursue their strategic objectives of decreasing US influence in the region by escalating against the United States politically and militarily.[5] Iran and its proxies are using a two-pronged political and military approach to evict US forces from Iraq, for example.[6] This is one step in Iran’s larger goal to expel the United States from the entire Middle East.[7] The attacks in the Bab al Mandeb demonstrate that Iran and its Houthi partner could shut down both the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al Mandeb—a long-held aspiration for both parties that is independent of the Israel-Hamas War.[8]
The United States cannot ignore Iranian and Iranian proxy escalations in the Middle East out of the desire to avoid being drawn into a regional “quagmire.”[9] Iranian-backed attacks in the Red Sea threaten vital shipping lanes and are already affecting global trade. The Iranian-backed Houthi movement has forced global shipping giants to divert shipping away from the Bab al Mandeb.[10] Thirty-three percent of global shipping transits the Bab al Mandeb, meaning that Houthi attacks in the Bab al Mandeb generate global effects that cannot be ignored.[11] Iran’s campaign to expel US forces from Iraq would have dire implications for the defeat of ISIS, for example, an organization that remains committed to attacking the US homeland and retains considerable capability to do so. The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would benefit ISIS by preventing US support to the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). The ISF still faces deficiencies in intelligence, logistics, and fire support.[12] The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would also require the US to end operations in Syria because US forces in Syria rely on Iraqi bases for their logistics and other support. CTP-ISW continues to assess that ISIS would likely resurge within 12-24 months in Syria without a US force presence and then threaten Iraq.[13]
The commercial shipping looks like a Houthi win (thus far) given … Gen Jack Keane thinks the sources of these attacks need to be eliminated.
The shipping company Maersk announced on January 5 that it would divert its ships around the Cape of Good Hope for the foreseeable future.[74] Maersk cited security risks, which is a reference to Houthi attacks that have repeatedly targeted the company’s ships.[75] The company paused shipping through the Red Sea on January 2 after it briefly restarted the route on December 24, when the US established Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial traffic through the Red Sea.[76] Maersk alone accounts for roughly 17 percent of global shipping.[77]
India’s Defense Ministry said that it would provide protective escorts for Indian container ships in the Red Sea on January 05.[78] An Iranian one-way drone damaged a commercial vessel off the coast of India on December 23.[79] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the attack was likely part of Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s efforts to signal their capability and willingness to attack maritime targets beyond just the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.[80] Houthi drones also struck an Indian-flagged Saibaba in the Bab al Mandeb strait on December 23.[81]
Iranian officials and state media are emphasizing a longstanding regime narrative that the United States created ISIS to blame the United States and Israel for the January 3 terrorist attack in Kerman City, Iran. Two members of the Afghan branch of the Islamic State—named Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)—detonated suicide vests during a ceremony on January 3, 2024, commemorating IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani’s death in a US airstrike in 2020.[59] ISKP claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement on January 4.[60] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency claimed that Israel “ordered” ISKP to claim responsibility for the attack to “escape the consequences” of committing the attack.[61] Tasnim further claimed that Mossad wrote the statement that ISKP released on January 4. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami similarly claimed that ISIS fighters can only act as “agents” of the United States and Israel during a funeral ceremony for the victims of the attack in Kerman City on January 5.[62] The Iranian regime's claim that the United States created ISIS long precedes the Kerman terrorist attack. Regime officials have claimed repeatedly in recent years that the United formed, trained, and provided funding to ISIS to sow instability in the region and harm Iran.[63]
I found these lines bizarre … and more detail than US Network news …
The Iranian Intelligence Ministry announced on January 5 that security forces arrested 11 individuals in six provinces in connection to the January 3 terrorist attack.[64] The ministry confirmed that suicide bombers carried out the attack and revealed that one of the bombers was a Tajik national who had traveled from abroad to conduct the attack.
Ebrahim Raisi administration officials continued to discuss the January 3 terrorist attack with their foreign counterparts on January 4 and 5. President Raisi discussed the attack with his Turkmen and Serbian counterparts in separate phone calls on January 4.[65] Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the attack in separate phone calls with his Qatari, Sri Lankan, Syrian, and Turkish counterparts on January 4 and 5.[66] Abdollahian emphasized the need for regional countries to cooperate to combat terrorism.
Iranian state media is downplaying the connection between Afghanistan and the January 3 terrorist attack. IRGC-affiliated media highlighted that 12 of the victims of the terrorist attack were Afghan nationals and claimed that Iran and Afghanistan share a “blood bond” and “shared grief.”[67] IRGC-affiliated media also described Iran and Afghanistan as “not two nations, but one nation.” Iranian state media previously accused anti-regime outlets of trying to stoke tension between Iran and its neighbors by claiming that one of the suicide bombers in the January 3 attack was a Pakistani national who previously attempted to carry out an attack in Afghanistan.[68]
And a new map … X are brigades (XX is a division)
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/NATO_Military_Map_Symbols#Infantry_Units
New content from ISW today…
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-5-2024
An end to Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip will not on its own stop Iranian escalation because Iran’s effort to expel the United States from the region and decrease US influence transcends the war. Iran and its partners are using the Israel-Hamas War as a rhetorical cover to pursue their strategic objectives of decreasing US influence in the region by escalating against the United States politically and militarily.[5] Iran and its proxies are using a two-pronged political and military approach to evict US forces from Iraq, for example.[6] This is one step in Iran’s larger goal to expel the United States from the entire Middle East.[7] The attacks in the Bab al Mandeb demonstrate that Iran and its Houthi partner could shut down both the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al Mandeb—a long-held aspiration for both parties that is independent of the Israel-Hamas War.[8]
The United States cannot ignore Iranian and Iranian proxy escalations in the Middle East out of the desire to avoid being drawn into a regional “quagmire.”[9] Iranian-backed attacks in the Red Sea threaten vital shipping lanes and are already affecting global trade. The Iranian-backed Houthi movement has forced global shipping giants to divert shipping away from the Bab al Mandeb.[10] Thirty-three percent of global shipping transits the Bab al Mandeb, meaning that Houthi attacks in the Bab al Mandeb generate global effects that cannot be ignored.[11] Iran’s campaign to expel US forces from Iraq would have dire implications for the defeat of ISIS, for example, an organization that remains committed to attacking the US homeland and retains considerable capability to do so. The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would benefit ISIS by preventing US support to the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). The ISF still faces deficiencies in intelligence, logistics, and fire support.[12] The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would also require the US to end operations in Syria because US forces in Syria rely on Iraqi bases for their logistics and other support. CTP-ISW continues to assess that ISIS would likely resurge within 12-24 months in Syria without a US force presence and then threaten Iraq.[13]
The commercial shipping looks like a Houthi win (thus far) given … Gen Jack Keane thinks the sources of these attacks need to be eliminated. I think the Iranian frigates need to be invited to leave … regardless.
The shipping company Maersk announced on January 5 that it would divert its ships around the Cape of Good Hope for the foreseeable future.[74] Maersk cited security risks, which is a reference to Houthi attacks that have repeatedly targeted the company’s ships.[75] The company paused shipping through the Red Sea on January 2 after it briefly restarted the route on December 24, when the US established Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial traffic through the Red Sea.[76] Maersk alone accounts for roughly 17 percent of global shipping.[77]
India’s Defense Ministry said that it would provide protective escorts for Indian container ships in the Red Sea on January 05.[78] An Iranian one-way drone damaged a commercial vessel off the coast of India on December 23.[79] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the attack was likely part of Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s efforts to signal their capability and willingness to attack maritime targets beyond just the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.[80] Houthi drones also struck an Indian-flagged Saibaba in the Bab al Mandeb strait on December 23.[81]
Iranian officials and state media are emphasizing a longstanding regime narrative that the United States created ISIS to blame the United States and Israel for the January 3 terrorist attack in Kerman City, Iran. Two members of the Afghan branch of the Islamic State—named Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)—detonated suicide vests during a ceremony on January 3, 2024, commemorating IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani’s death in a US airstrike in 2020.[59] ISKP claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement on January 4.[60] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency claimed that Israel “ordered” ISKP to claim responsibility for the attack to “escape the consequences” of committing the attack.[61] Tasnim further claimed that Mossad wrote the statement that ISKP released on January 4. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami similarly claimed that ISIS fighters can only act as “agents” of the United States and Israel during a funeral ceremony for the victims of the attack in Kerman City on January 5.[62] The Iranian regime's claim that the United States created ISIS long precedes the Kerman terrorist attack. Regime officials have claimed repeatedly in recent years that the United formed, trained, and provided funding to ISIS to sow instability in the region and harm Iran.[63]
I found these lines bizarre … and more detail than US Network news …
The Iranian Intelligence Ministry announced on January 5 that security forces arrested 11 individuals in six provinces in connection to the January 3 terrorist attack.[64] The ministry confirmed that suicide bombers carried out the attack and revealed that one of the bombers was a Tajik national who had traveled from abroad to conduct the attack.
Ebrahim Raisi administration officials continued to discuss the January 3 terrorist attack with their foreign counterparts on January 4 and 5. President Raisi discussed the attack with his Turkmen and Serbian counterparts in separate phone calls on January 4.[65] Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the attack in separate phone calls with his Qatari, Sri Lankan, Syrian, and Turkish counterparts on January 4 and 5.[66] Abdollahian emphasized the need for regional countries to cooperate to combat terrorism.
Iranian state media is downplaying the connection between Afghanistan and the January 3 terrorist attack. IRGC-affiliated media highlighted that 12 of the victims of the terrorist attack were Afghan nationals and claimed that Iran and Afghanistan share a “blood bond” and “shared grief.”[67] IRGC-affiliated media also described Iran and Afghanistan as “not two nations, but one nation.” Iranian state media previously accused anti-regime outlets of trying to stoke tension between Iran and its neighbors by claiming that one of the suicide bombers in the January 3 attack was a Pakistani national who previously attempted to carry out an attack in Afghanistan.[68]
And a new map … X are brigades (XX is a division)
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-5-2024
An end to Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip will not on its own stop Iranian escalation because Iran’s effort to expel the United States from the region and decrease US influence transcends the war. Iran and its partners are using the Israel-Hamas War as a rhetorical cover to pursue their strategic objectives of decreasing US influence in the region by escalating against the United States politically and militarily.[5] Iran and its proxies are using a two-pronged political and military approach to evict US forces from Iraq, for example.[6] This is one step in Iran’s larger goal to expel the United States from the entire Middle East.[7] The attacks in the Bab al Mandeb demonstrate that Iran and its Houthi partner could shut down both the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al Mandeb—a long-held aspiration for both parties that is independent of the Israel-Hamas War.[8]
The United States cannot ignore Iranian and Iranian proxy escalations in the Middle East out of the desire to avoid being drawn into a regional “quagmire.”[9] Iranian-backed attacks in the Red Sea threaten vital shipping lanes and are already affecting global trade. The Iranian-backed Houthi movement has forced global shipping giants to divert shipping away from the Bab al Mandeb.[10] Thirty-three percent of global shipping transits the Bab al Mandeb, meaning that Houthi attacks in the Bab al Mandeb generate global effects that cannot be ignored.[11] Iran’s campaign to expel US forces from Iraq would have dire implications for the defeat of ISIS, for example, an organization that remains committed to attacking the US homeland and retains considerable capability to do so. The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would benefit ISIS by preventing US support to the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). The ISF still faces deficiencies in intelligence, logistics, and fire support.[12] The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would also require the US to end operations in Syria because US forces in Syria rely on Iraqi bases for their logistics and other support. CTP-ISW continues to assess that ISIS would likely resurge within 12-24 months in Syria without a US force presence and then threaten Iraq.[13]
The commercial shipping looks like a Houthi win (thus far) given … Gen Jack Keane thinks the sources of these attacks need to be eliminated. I think the Iranian frigates need to be invited to leave … regardless.
The shipping company Maersk announced on January 5 that it would divert its ships around the Cape of Good Hope for the foreseeable future.[74] Maersk cited security risks, which is a reference to Houthi attacks that have repeatedly targeted the company’s ships.[75] The company paused shipping through the Red Sea on January 2 after it briefly restarted the route on December 24, when the US established Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial traffic through the Red Sea.[76] Maersk alone accounts for roughly 17 percent of global shipping.[77]
India’s Defense Ministry said that it would provide protective escorts for Indian container ships in the Red Sea on January 05.[78] An Iranian one-way drone damaged a commercial vessel off the coast of India on December 23.[79] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the attack was likely part of Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s efforts to signal their capability and willingness to attack maritime targets beyond just the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.[80] Houthi drones also struck an Indian-flagged Saibaba in the Bab al Mandeb strait on December 23.[81]
Iranian officials and state media are emphasizing a longstanding regime narrative that the United States created ISIS to blame the United States and Israel for the January 3 terrorist attack in Kerman City, Iran. Two members of the Afghan branch of the Islamic State—named Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)—detonated suicide vests during a ceremony on January 3, 2024, commemorating IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani’s death in a US airstrike in 2020.[59] ISKP claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement on January 4.[60] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency claimed that Israel “ordered” ISKP to claim responsibility for the attack to “escape the consequences” of committing the attack.[61] Tasnim further claimed that Mossad wrote the statement that ISKP released on January 4. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami similarly claimed that ISIS fighters can only act as “agents” of the United States and Israel during a funeral ceremony for the victims of the attack in Kerman City on January 5.[62] The Iranian regime's claim that the United States created ISIS long precedes the Kerman terrorist attack. Regime officials have claimed repeatedly in recent years that the United formed, trained, and provided funding to ISIS to sow instability in the region and harm Iran.[63]
I found these lines bizarre … and more detail than US Network news …
The Iranian Intelligence Ministry announced on January 5 that security forces arrested 11 individuals in six provinces in connection to the January 3 terrorist attack.[64] The ministry confirmed that suicide bombers carried out the attack and revealed that one of the bombers was a Tajik national who had traveled from abroad to conduct the attack.
Ebrahim Raisi administration officials continued to discuss the January 3 terrorist attack with their foreign counterparts on January 4 and 5. President Raisi discussed the attack with his Turkmen and Serbian counterparts in separate phone calls on January 4.[65] Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the attack in separate phone calls with his Qatari, Sri Lankan, Syrian, and Turkish counterparts on January 4 and 5.[66] Abdollahian emphasized the need for regional countries to cooperate to combat terrorism.
Iranian state media is downplaying the connection between Afghanistan and the January 3 terrorist attack. IRGC-affiliated media highlighted that 12 of the victims of the terrorist attack were Afghan nationals and claimed that Iran and Afghanistan share a “blood bond” and “shared grief.”[67] IRGC-affiliated media also described Iran and Afghanistan as “not two nations, but one nation.” Iranian state media previously accused anti-regime outlets of trying to stoke tension between Iran and its neighbors by claiming that one of the suicide bombers in the January 3 attack was a Pakistani national who previously attempted to carry out an attack in Afghanistan.[68]
And a new map … X are brigades (XX is a division)
Israel is assassinating whoever it wants, wherever it wants right now
