How long until China invades Taiwan?
- Thread starter Hoopsdoc1978
- Start date
Taiwan has excellent equipment. They also have 4 subs, not a lot against China but enough to scare any amphibious commander to death.
I don't have any more idea than anyone else what the US plan is for Taiwan, but I predict we have a couple. And I suspect they agree on the following points.
US airpower will be flown to keep evacuation corridors open to evacuate US diplomats, families, and citizens. Liberally sprinkled into that group will be Taiwanese scientists, engineers, and their families. High-tech plants will be wired to detonate before capture or surrender.
So the question becomes, what does China want? If it is Taiwan's economy, an invasion isn't likely to yield much. Anything of value will be destroyed in combat, intentionally destroyed, or whisked away. The Russians seized one of the largest steelworks in the world last week, nothing is left. They aren't even going to try to rebuild it.
On the other hand, if China feels slighted about Taiwan and wants to restore it because of pride, none of that matters. I don't want China to take it, but I also know if Britain had guaranteed an independent Virginia in 1865 the rest of the US would still not be amused. So if China decides that losing 100,000 men is worth the loss of honor Taiwan represents, none of the above matters.
At the moment I think the economic reality is the driver. If China starts to have problems at home and wants a war to distract, I suspect she will move against Taiwan.
Interesting that Taiwan hasn't always been Chinese territory. It was self-governing prior to China and a colony of the Netherlands until the end of the 17th Century.
China ceded the island to Japan in the late 1800s and didn't get it back until 1945 and then the Nationalists took it over after they fled the mainland.
It's sort of like Russia's claim on Ukraine.
Taiwan | History, Flag, Map, Capital, Population, & Facts | Britannica
Taiwan is an island in the western Pacific Ocean that lies roughly 100 miles (160 km) off the coast of southeastern China. Taipei, in the north, is the seat of government of the Republic of China (ROC; Nationalist China).
www.britannica.com
That's good. I would want around 1,500 of them. Overkill? Maybe, but I would want the point to be clear. It is going to rain antiahipping missiles on your invasion force the minute you come in range.They have an aggressive anti-ship plan. 400 of our Harpoons in addition to their own systems.
Taiwan Unveils Two-Phase Anti-Ship Missile Deployment Plan
Taiwan plans to establish anti-ship missile squadrons across the territory against a potential Chinese navy invasion.www.google.com
Thanks for the history, didn't know that.Interesting that Taiwan hasn't always been Chinese territory. It was self-governing prior to China and a colony of the Netherlands until the end of the 17th Century.
China ceded the island to Japan in the late 1800s and didn't get it back until 1945 and then the Nationalists took it over after they fled the mainland.
It's sort of like Russia's claim on Ukraine.
Taiwan | History, Flag, Map, Capital, Population, & Facts | Britannica
Taiwan is an island in the western Pacific Ocean that lies roughly 100 miles (160 km) off the coast of southeastern China. Taipei, in the north, is the seat of government of the Republic of China (ROC; Nationalist China).
ok, so what's the plan?
i fail to see how anyone can invade a modern country by sea anymore, let alone a place like Taiwan.
with today's weapons technology, seems like all ships that venture within range are pretty much man made reefs waiting to happen.
i fail to see how anyone can invade a modern country by sea anymore, let alone a place like Taiwan.
with today's weapons technology, seems like all ships that venture within range are pretty much man made reefs waiting to happen.
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I'm be okay with lobbed missiles as it means steady pressure that's kept Nk from actually starting something big is actually working. as it is, NK goes through a cycle of almost getting to the negotiating table and seeming normal, then doing something crazy as shit, and then getting something out of it. and it's a success story. lol. I'd be more worried about NK feeling emboldened by a populist prez in the US and trying something truly crazy in the spirit of might makes right or some crap. then becoming a failed state. then S. Korea and China are bumping against each other as a huge refugee crisis unfolds and shit gets serious fast.
The only reason China will want Taiwan back now is if people make it into a geopolitical situation of either the US makes it a loss of face or I dare you to do it scenarios.
The Chinese know its way too difficult to invade Taiwan -- the costs to both sides will make it untenable.
On the other hand, the Chinese know that the US is unlikely to send boots on the ground over Taiwan. Christ... the Chinese and Taiwanese speak the same language. Culturally, Taiwan is more Chinese than Hawaii is American.
Taiwan is just a political football used to antagonise all sides both domestic and foreign.
It's China's stated goal to unite Taiwan with the mainland.
We need to listen to our enemies when they say they're going to do something. Even Ukranians didn't believe Russia would invade.
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