And my last point is probably the most important. I've said for a while this race looks a lot like 1980. Reagan and Carter were about tied until the first week of October before the wheels came off for Jimmy. That's what is happening now.
Harris vs. Trump 2024
- Thread starter Aloha Hoosier
- Start date
One thing I'd add to this is that I get the impression a lot of people assume that Trump will outperform his polls -- as he did in both 2016 and 2020. I can see why people think that. It's always easier to expect that something that has happened before will happen again than to expect that something that hasn't happened before will happen for the first time.
I don't have any views on what to expect from polling error. It certainly has happened in the past that the Democratic candidate (most recently, Obama in 2012) outperformed his polls.
But I just think we have to go with the data we have to work with now. There will be some error, of course -- but we don't know how much and we also don't know which candidate will outperform it.
Very strange indeed. Republicans are going balls to the wall in PA and seem to have mostly written off NV. Musk has been and will be living in PA for the next month.
The Economist had an article this week about the Republican efforts to turn out the Amish vote. 90% vote R, but only about 10% vote. PA has 90,000 of them.
Last edited:
Dream Teamersssssssssas mount up…. @stollcpa Musk needs you in Pennsylvania.
This is a much better barometer than any poll. Biden's victory was what 80k there? Well we just cut that by 15k in one week. Wow.
And don’t forget our own there will be blood pastor runs one of the largest congregations in pa
I am pretty sure the polls you linked had a Trump victory, how did those turn out?
In the forecasting models?
I looked up 538's. They had the R Senate at 59-41. That's actually a pretty narrow split for something like this.
It's like saying that a sports team has a 59% chance of winning a contest. That gives the other team a 41% chance -- which is hardly a bad chance. As it turned out, the Dems kept the Senate majority....which means that one of the 41/100 scenarios that had them doing so came to fruition.
I don't think this should make anybody lose faith in them. I just think people need to understand what they are and aren't.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he outperformed again. I think Trump will win because Biden was an awful President and his policies negatively impacted a lot of people in swing states. He has a chance to win the popular vote.
I don't blame them for writing off NV. The juice just isn't worth the squeeze there.
I think the Rs are operating off the (unsafe?) assumption that he is going to win the "Red Wall" states of AZ, GA, and NC. These are purple states that, for presidential elections, probably tilt a little more red than blue. I'm not sure I'd be so quick to assume that -- especially in Georgia.
If he does win those, then it really just comes down to picking off one of the "Blue Wall" states of MI, PA, and WI. I'm actually kind of surprised they aren't focusing more on WI than PA. But there's probably some belief -- with registration data tending the R direction, etc. -- that Pennsylvania is trending towards its neighbor of Ohio, while Wisconsin is trending towards its neighbor of Minnesota.
But Wisconsin was the closer of the two in 2020. I think the margin ended up around 0.6%
Yabbut....
As I said, the one model I looked up only had the Rs winning 59 of 100 scenarios. That may sound like a lot, but it's actually pretty close to tossup range. The House model had the Rs winning around 80 of 100 scenarios. And that ended up happening.
Anyone comparing a midterm to a Presidential election especially with Trump on the ticket should never be taken seriously on any topic ever again. But yes, the Republican party will be in serious trouble starting in 2026 and every other election going forward unless they change and quick.
Yeah my go-to guys are Bailey77 and Dbm. Not surprising I guess. Particularly when considering my financial guy is a Boogerballer, a vending driver, and snarl, a bitcoiner
I wonder how much money it would take to establish 20,000 Wisconsin residencies for 20,000 disaffected Illinoisans living near the WI border for this election?
And my house has a chance of being demolished by a meteorite.
No, I know that's something that could conceivably happen. But it's a longshot, IMO. The margins of victory for Dems in populous blue states has been big -- and even bigger during the Trump era.
Hillary Clinton won her states by a net total of 3.2 million more votes than Trump won his states.
Joe Biden won his states by 8M more votes than Trump won his states.
Notwithstanding any change in the total size of the electorate, I feel like it's safe to assume that Harris' winning margins in blue states, less Trump's winning margins in red states, will come somewhere between those two numbers. And that gives her a huge advantage in the popular vote -- a metric of no tangible consequence.
I've pondered these kinds of questions before. If I was wanting to game the electoral college, this is how I'd do it. But if one party or candidate can do it, the other one can, too. It seems like it would be really hard to do something like this, and even harder to do it quietly and timely.
I will defer to your expertise and first-hand experience on the issue of somebody not being taken seriously.
I have no idea if Trump will outperform his polls or not but if the theory is that the reason for it is that people don’t want to admit to voting for Trump, then it stands to reason that that could happen again. Especially with the way he’s been demonized in the past few years.
Anecdotally, it seems to me that coming out as a Trump supporter seems to be losing a lot of it's stigma.
Agree with what you said above. My loyalist comment was referring to the normalizing of talking about Arnie's junk at a rally.
For the record, I think Trump has done what he has need to. He has this in the bag.
Probably bc Harris and walz are that goofy. If they had a decent candidate on the other side it’d be harder to support trump
They used to call these "shy Trump voters." I'd suspect that they're becoming less common over time -- but the fact is that Trump outperformed his polls by more in 2020 than he did in 2016. I'd hesitate to use N=2 to suggest any sort of trend. But it is the case that this happened.
Anyway, you could turn out to be right. It certainly seems that the swing-state futures market participants are expecting Trump to outperform his polls -- because prices on those markets aren't warranted by the actual polling data we have.
I’d still put my money on Harris. She’s got way more money to spend too. I think trump’s path is narrower
Could probably dig up enough in Lake County to swing that bitch for the foreseeable future. Wisconsin should be a red state. Culturally it definitely is.
I think there are shy voters on both sides reflecting the fact we have two terrible choices. No one in their right mind can be proud voting for either of these two.
I'll vote Kamala, but no way in hell would I put her sign in my yard or even really talk about it.
There are definitely shy Trump voters. The big issue though is that much of Trump's base, the rural white working class voter, is very difficult to reach. So in Wisconsin, instead of polling enough of those voters they will just poll more white voters in Madison, Green Bay, Milwaukee, etc when they vote completely differently.
Same reason NC hasn't been polled correctly in over a decade. They can't reach the people in Appalachia.
There is also the fact that Harris hasn’t played every card in her deck yet, either.
I fully expect something derogatory to be released about Trump or Vance in the next week or so. Could be the long rumored Trump saying the N word on tape.
This morning on Polymarket the odds of Trump winning the popular vote was practically the same as Harris winning the election.And my house has a chance of being demolished by a meteorite.
No, I know that's something that could conceivably happen. But it's a longshot, IMO. The margins of victory for Dems in populous blue states has been big -- and even bigger during the Trump era.
Hillary Clinton won her states by a net total of 3.2 million more votes than Trump won his states.
Joe Biden won his states by 8M more votes than Trump won his states.
Notwithstanding any change in the total size of the electorate, I feel like it's safe to assume that Harris' winning margins in blue states, less Trump's winning margins in red states, will come somewhere between those two numbers. And that gives her a huge advantage in the popular vote -- a metric of no tangible consequence.
I've already made this point at the WC, but it's worth making again.
I wasn't active here last year. But I started saying in the summer of 2023 or so that the influential Democrats (primarily the Obamas, the Clintons, Pelosi, and Schumer) should get to work ASAP on getting Joe Biden out of the race. He was already demonstrating bad signs and it seemed a very reasonable guess that those would only get worse with time. It can be surprising how quickly those symptoms can progress. And that's exactly what they did.
In retrospect, it was smart to schedule that debate in June. But it was still too late, really -- not to change candidates, but to change to the best candidate in the best way.
If you looked carefully enough, you could find some smart Dems pushing back on this by saying that the party would be better served by not having a divisive primary where a Bernie-like candidate could once again perform well enough to cause a rift. And I think there was something to be said for that.
But the flip side is: that means they have to hitch their wagons to Kamala Harris....who, when she was a regular candidate herself and despite a pretty nice money haul, didn't even make it to the first primary contest in Iowa before dropping out. It would be like Republicans maneuvering in a way that forced them to go with Gov. Scott Walker.
I don't know if a candidate like Shapiro or Whitmer would've won the nomination in a regular primary. We can only speculate. But I do suspect that, if Dems had nominated either one of these, they'd stand better chances to win than Harris currently does.
I feel ya, BCC. It's depressing -- because I know for a fact that this country has gobs of really smart and talented leaders.
Anyway, I'm voting for a guy who isn't eligible, who barely speaks English, who is a little wacky himself, and who has a hairstyle that is oddly reminiscent of Wolverine. He won't win and he couldn't serve if he did. But I'm completely at peace with it. I've found it liberating to not feel compelled to carry the water for Donald Trump just because I'm a Republican and he's....well....taken ownership of the Republican Party.
Is it legal for Americans to participate in that? If so, bet against that. And bet big.
He probably won't even win all of his states by a sum total of as much as Harris will win just California. Biden won it by 5 million votes. Trump won every single state he won last election by a total of 3.2 million votes.
Roe was a headwind for the GOP and people were still fairly flush with cash at that point from stimmys in 20 & 21. Compared to today where that money is gone and people are just stuck with high prices (the hang over). Also, the negative impacts from immigration has affected more people now than they did in 22. To quote my liberal buddy , “I thought it was just Fox News being dumbasses. Where did all the people come from? I’m voting for Trump”.
Last edited:
