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Harris vs. Trump 2024

I would add to this that, if Kamala Harris loses this election, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see something similar happen to the Democrats. It's easy to forget that Bernie Sanders seemed to have a very real lead in the primary just 4 years ago. It wasn't until South Carolina (the 4th contest) that James Clyburn consolidated support around Joe Biden.

Here's how Biden had fared in the first 3 contests:

Iowa (caucus) - Biden came in 4th behind Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren -- with 13.7% of votes cast.
New Hampshire (primary) - Biden came in 5th behind Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren -- with 8.4%.
Nevada (caucus) - Biden came in 2nd behind Sanders -- with 18.9% of votes cast.

And then he won 48% of the vote in South Carolina (Bernie was 2nd with 19.8%), mostly at the expense of the non-Sanders candidates.

Sanders continued performing well throughout the rest of the contests, although it soon became apparent that Biden would win the nomination. All told, Sanders got 26% of the votes nationwide.

Now, I'm not equating Trump to Sanders. But I would compare them in the sense that he would also represent a significant departure from the Dem party's norm. And I think Clyburn's action (along with actions by the DNC in 2016 to boost Hillary against Sanders) shows that the Dem PTBs realize this, too.

Could Dems be in store for their own "Tea Party" type uprising if Harris goes on to lose this election? If she wins, I think it's probably a moot question.
I think the analog to the Tea Party was the Sanders wing of the Dems. The Tea Party seems to have morphed or given rise to MAGA, and Sanders gave rise to today's progressives.

But in 2020, she went way, way left. So why would the progressives rise up--wouldn't it be the more moderate wing?
 
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I think the analog to the Tea Party was the Sanders wing of the Dems. The Tea Party seems to have morphed or given rise to MAGA, and Sanders gave rise to today's progressives.

But in 2020, she went way, way left. So why would the progressives rise up--wouldn't it be the more moderate wing?

I’m not sure it matters. The point is that they’ll be wrestling for the soul of the party.

And I can imagine progressives being miffed about her abandoning her progressive positions.
 
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Fetterman had the benefit of running against Dr. Oz -- who was on that list of terrible Republican statewide candidates.

If Republican primary voters had nominated David McCormick, instead of just slavishly doing what Donald Trump told them to do, it would've been a very different race.

I don't know if McCormick is going to knock off Bob Casey. He's an underdog, but he has a fighting chance. And Casey is a 2-term incumbent, and the son and namesake of a popular former governor.

We can't say for sure he would've beaten Fetterman, of course. But I think he at least would've run stronger than Oz.
Because Trump is on the ballot. Only reason. Oz gave everyone Mitt Romney vibes.
 
I’m not sure it matters. The point is that they’ll be wrestling for the soul of the party.

And I can imagine progressives being miffed about her abandoning her progressive positions.
Could be. I just don’t know if they can overcome the part of the party that just wants to win. That’s how Biden got the nod in 20 and it’s why she’s there now bc of Biden’s mental decline.
 
@TheOriginalHappyGoat got it right

The fact that they say it's especially driven by negative responses from Republicans might help explain why this election is so close. The opposing party always says they are worse off, so big deal. If I were Harris I'd be very concerned with how Democrats respond to this question. Very easy to lose motivation when you don't feel you are getting a return on your vote.
 
It’s all a show. The politicians saying it don’t believe it. But many of their followers do.


Schumer and Trump do go way, way back. Trump started supporting his campaigns in the 70s.

But I agree that a lot of politics is kayfabe - which is why it’s so apropos that the candidates are touting dueling endorsements from pro wrestlers.
 
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The fact that they say it's especially driven by negative responses from Republicans might help explain why this election is so close. The opposing party always says they are worse off, so big deal. If I were Harris I'd be very concerned with how Democrats respond to this question. Very easy to lose motivation when you don't feel you are getting a return on your vote.

To me, it’s the other supporting pieces. Economic confidence is low, job optimism is low…
 
Final from Atlas. They nailed 2020 and 2022.

Anybody that predicts Trump to win the popular vote is not playing with a full deck...

If you want to claim that Atlas was most accurate in 2020, I'll accept it. But if you're going to claim they were the most accurate for 2022 and didn't undervalue Dems, I'll need some receipts...



In the PA Senate I couldn't find an Atlas Poll, but Marist had Fetterman +6. In fact it seems Atlas basically quit polling in Oct, except for GA Senate. So I'm not exactly sure what they "nailed"?...

Meanwhile heading into Nov 9, Marist was on fire.. In addition to Fetterman ahead comfortably they showed Warnock ready to force a runoff, as well as Kelly winning by 4 and Cortez-Masto winning in a huge upset as well.

The reason I bring up Marist is because they nailed key races in 2022 and their poll this week shows Harris up 5.

 
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Anybody that predicts Trump to win the popular vote is not playing with a full deck...

If you want to claim that Atlas was most accurate in 2020, I'll accept it. But if you're going to claim they were the most accurate for 2022 and didn't undervalue Dems, I'll need some receipts...



In the PA Senate I couldn't find an Atlas Poll, but Marist had Fetterman +6. In fact it seems Atlas basically quit polling in Oct, except for GA Senate. So I'm not exactly sure what they "nailed"?...

Meanwhile heading into Nov 9, Marist was on fire.. In addition to Fetterman ahead comfortably they showed Warnock ready to force a runoff, as well as Kelly winning by 4 and Cortez-Masto winning in a huge upset as well.

The reason I bring up Marist is because they nailed key races in 2022 and their poll this week shows Harris up 5.

DBM read a post that said they "nailed" it, so he repeated it. That's all this is. He has no understanding whatsoever of polling.
 
I know that this Darth Vader guy is, according to the FAKE NEWS, on the "dark side". He's OK with genocide, blowing up planets, killing younglings, etc

but I am just not sure what this Princess Leia person really stands for.

I suspect that drink prices at the Mos Eisley spaceport cantina might go up. Crab legs too.
 
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Democrats believe keeping any and every person who has ever lived in the state, living or dead, u.s. citizen or not, is necessary because you don’t want to create “obstacles to voting”

Don’t be gaslit by these ****ing people. They do want to degrade election integrity. It’s clear as day,
The DOJ suit against Youngkin/VA is downright comical. Also tells you they know VA is very tight.

 
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No discussion about the size of Arnold Palmer's dick? Seems like Trump is covering all of the big issues that Americans care about.
 
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