I don't think it's just getting the talent, or coaching the x's and o's that guy's moving up struggle with, I think it's just the totality of the job: dealing with the added scrutiny, ADs/admins, media commitments, and the recruiting. Maybe NIL does change the equation a bit, but it's also just 1 more factor they have to master... quickly. And, everyone else has NIL too, so it's competitive. Neither UNC or MSU got the bigs they were seeking this past year. UL and UK struggled (both were reportedly on their 3rd+ candidates) with getting proven guys, because 1) there aren't that many out there, and 2) they're getting locked in with buyouts and seem less inclined to move when they can build a competitive program where they are. No one would've ever considered staying at an Auburn or Alabama if UL and UK came calling... but they did. You're also covering a ton of ground with the programs you mention, and what I see that a lot of those programs did was get Assts from established programs, where they've already seen all the demands they'll deal with. And, let's not annoint guys too soon. Nova may be looking for a new coach in the next year or 2 and UL, UK and UM while impressive so far, are all in their first year, so they still have a lot to prove. As much as UK fans like Pope, that won't go far if he's not getting to E8s or better in the next 2-3 years.
I've said all along that I think our best chance of getting another great program coach is finding someone as an up and comer, but I think it's crazy to think there are dozens of those guys out there who are viable candidates. Again I ask: how do you explain how badly we've done with the last 5 guys if there are that many great candidates out there every year. Finding the right coach and fit is tough to do, and those guys aren't out there by the dozens.
IU's coaching hire failures...
Davis...no search, caved and chose the guy that the players all wanted...no previous coaching experience. This one isn't an applicable comp to what Dolson will do, and how he'll approach this search.
Sampson... search, chose a great coach, just didn't have the foresight to not take a risk on a guy with past issues. This one is applicable...different, very different, set of issues...but as I've said many times, this is why I'd stay away from guys like Beard, Golden, Jans, and probably Wade. But they sure found a damn good basketball coach in that search.
Crean... search...but completely different scenario to what we're facing now. IU was a complete dumpster fire, with the prospect of no returning players, and no NIL or Portal dynamics to help them. Whoever took over that job, was literally building from scratch, and had to do it with freshmen. Taking all that in to account, Crean was probably actually a really good choice. In a few years, he had IU "back" to being one of the best programs in the country. He just wasn't a guy that was ever going to keep IU at or near the top. And we didn't move on quickly enough...and because of that, missed out on a couple good candidates.
Archie... search... this one is the one that challenges my assertion, and backs up yours. But, Archie inherited a decent amount of players, and didn't have NIL or the Portal to help him react and build a roster that fit his own style...AND he was facing the height of the IU Bill of Rights "constraints" when it came to rebuilding his roster. The good thing, Dolson reacted more quickly on this one than previous Admins likely would have.
Woodson... no lengthy search...by all accounts, Dolson locked in on Stevens. And when Stevens didn't happen, there wasn't a working list of viable coaches he had been vetting, interviewing, etc... So Woodson backfilled, and then was fasttracked, and the decision was made. And then...even Woodson didn't have the full power of NIL and Portal, in his first couple years, to build the roster how he saw fit. He focused mainly on bringing everyone back, and chased HS and transfer talent late in the process.
The ONLY coaching search that really in any way is a comp to what is going on right now, is Archie's. That wasn't Dolson. And again, the coaching dynamics these days couldn't be more different than they were 8 years ago. Hell, even access to personality cues is easier than it was back then with social media, Youtube, etc...
This is the first time Dolson will have completed a full, comprehensive search. And this time around, he'll have NIL, Portal, many more recent examples of non P4 guys having success at P4 schools...
You're wrong on this one. Just like there are literally hundreds more impactful players available, every year now, for IU, or any school to change its fortunes quickly... There are more coaches available too that have the skills and personalities to do it...and that now have the resources.