you have way more confidence in the ability for a guy to make that big leap to a P4 school and win quickly. Way more. But, if you're granting that Schertz would likely be successful, that explains why you think there are a ton of guys out there who would succeed, and we just disagree about that. Same question to you: how do you explain our Admin being so inept to have hired 5 (not counting DD) consecutive guys who weren't successful in the long haul, if there are tons of good candidates out there every year?
I've explained this multiple times now...and obviously its just my theory.
You, and many others, are still using conventional wisdom. Gotta have connections to recruit, gotta have time to build and develop, need experience coaching and managing elite level players...etc... Some of that probably still applies. But I don't think its nearly as important as it used to be. Does everyone think UK, Louisville, Arizona, Villanova, Duke...ALL of them, would have opted for an unproven P4 guy in the last couple years if having a proven P4 guy was THAT big of a deal? The common comment, especially with UK and UL last year, was that they "couldn't" get proven guys...hmmmm....Kentucky just couldn't get a more proven guy? And if it is true, that none of those schools could get someone more proven...then why are we even discussing any of the more proven guys?
No...the reality is, I suspect...that AD's are wising up to the fact that there are dozens upon dozens of good, smart, forward thinking coaches out there, that are learning to hustle, that are learning to compete with the big boys with less, that are developing and losing players to bigger schools every year and still winning...and realizing that particular preparation is as impactful, if not more impactful than some coaches like Chris Beard, or Dana Altman, or Mark Few...that's been at the P4 table for years now, and because of that just "know what its like" to coach at the P4 level.
And that having someone like that, increases the likelihood that he'll be more adaptive, and more capable of changing and improving as these NIL/Portal dynamics continue to evolve and change.
Ben McCollum...he dominated D2 for over a decade...domination that really no other active coach has ever shown or had, at any level. Then he took a job at a D1 school. The previous coach took Drake's best player with him. Other Drake players left to go other places as well. McCollum comes in to Drake with a handful of his D2 kids, who are now obviously showing they would have been very capable D1 players...and he's thriving. His current Drake team would be competitive in this year's B10. Probably wouldn't win it, but would be competitive, middle of the pack maybe, type team. They have the same NET ranking as IU, essentially, but have a coach that's proven he'll win most games that he's "in".
If he were to be the choice...He comes to IU, brings Stirtz, Banks, and a couple others with him. He keeps 3-4 guys from the current roster. He gets the incoming frosh to stick to their commitment. And then he goes, and with resources and accessibility he's never had before, he finds 4 high end guys in the portal that fit his program. You don't think that his team next year would be successful??
That's just McCollum...Byington (who would have 1 year of SEC experience), he could bring more talent with him...Schertz has a couple key guys with eligibility left...
