A less moderated Russia take
- Thread starter Marvin the Martian
- Start date
I would discuss with anybody Biden’s missteps that increased the likelihood of Putin’s invasion and Biden’s conspicuous timidity that cost lives, ruined others, and led to a protracted conflict.
The funniest/saddest/most pathetic statements by any US President in recent memory is “America is Back!” and “Nobody F*cks with a Biden.” Putin saw weakness and indecision and Iran saw an open road to do what it wants.
The only thing Biden has done with his baby Ukrainian steps is to suck our treasury of needed funds, depleted our military if needed supplies and ammunition, and contributed to the misery of millions.
Some people just live in a fantasy land don't they? I just saw it will take 12 years to restock the javelins we sent to them. China is loving every minute of it and if Biden were not in office the war would not even being going on maybe more importantly Brittany Griner wouldnt be in prison.
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
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I think it's worth noting that Putin took Crimea when Obama was President then invaded Ukraine when Biden was President. We'd be foolish to think Putin didn't factor in the likely U.S. response into his decisions. Yet he did nothing in Ukraine of this magnitude when Trump was there. Why? It's clearly not just "Trump strong, Obama/Biden weak" thinking. But what else went into that and do we really think it's just coincidence?
I submit that it's two things: (1) Putin thought Trump genuinely wasn't a threat to Russia or extending NATO; and (2) Trump was unpredictable enough it wasn't worth it to test him.
CoH, what specifically do you think that Biden's administration did, once taking office or in the campaign, to trigger Putin to think invading Ukraine would be met without severe U.S. response? (And let's remember: this isn't just Biden alone making decisions--he has a whole team of advisors at the State Dept. and in the military advising him).
I dont think it was thinking Trump was unpredictable I think he knew he would have taken swift actions and not stood for it.
There is another factor, Russia had tried hard to become impervious to the western sanctions after Crimea showed their vulnerability. Some of the timing was due to when they felt they were ready.
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
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I get that, but doesn't that mean he was predicting that Trump's administration would sanction him if he invaded Ukraine?
First, I'm not sure Trump would have done that.
Second, the very fact Putin was thinking that was a real possibility disproves the whole notion that Trump was compromised by the Russians, doesn't it?
I mean, if you're Putin and you just invaded Crimea in 2014, and now Trump is in office and you control him, aren't you taking the rest of Ukraine right then--in 2017-19--so that your puppet won't come down too hard on you and can help convince the European community of the same (by say, agreeing to continue to fund NATO or not make a big stink about it)?
I think Putin realized it was the one tool in the West arsenal. He expected a quick campaign, so all we could do are sanctions. Whether he thought Trump would do it was irrelevant, he wanted to be prepared just in case. He probably did not expect Obama to do it. Lesson learned.
My thinking was that it's probably related to #1. I thought he was always planning on invading Ukraine, but was waiting to gamble on the US election, because he felt that NATO's weakest point would be shortly after Trump's reelection. After Trump lost, he had reassess whether or not to do it, he said, "Eff it, let's go anyway."
At least that's what I used to think. But then I realized that such thinking makes this entirely a proxy Russia-NATO war and makes Ukraine irrelevant. I don't think that's the case, although I still think it's related to your first point. Now, I think it's more likely that Putin acted when he did to forestall what he saw as the possibility that NATO and Ukraine would gradually be forming a stronger relationship. How much of that is to do with Trump losing, I don't know. Could have to do with changes in policy and leadership in various European countries, as well. Or he could have simply been reading Ukraine's own progress and overtures to the West. But I do think that it's more likely Ukraine's relationship to the West than the leadership of the U.S. that bears directly on his thinking.
There is a panoply of big and small things. Among them:
- Afghanistan bungle.
- Blinkens meek US apology for slavery and discrimination at his very first confrontation with a powerful adversary.
- Reversing US oil dominance
- Nordstream permission
- Using Putin as our Agent with the JCPOA negotiations
- being obsessed with an Iran deal
- Eliminating Iranian (a close Russian ally)maximum pressure sanctions
- Siding with Iran‘s position on Trump killing qasem. Soleimani
- Sending signals to Iran to wait out Trump for more favorable treatment
The Biden administration has ruled out the transfer of fighter jets to Ukrainebecause it would be a “high risk” step that could ratchet up tensions with Russia, the Pentagon said Wednesday.
Really? The thing that ratchets up tensions is Biden’s indecision and lack of spine. Just about everything Biden does signals lack of bold and decisive actions. The only thing Biden does is spend our money and throwing our economy into inflation and recession, which is exactly up Putin’s alley as he is selling oil and gas for lots of cash while he and his OPEC buddies give us the finger.
Edit: Importantly, Biden’s Mig fiasco (and refusal to provide HIMARS) was at the time Biden was heavily invested in the Iranian deal. He needed Putin’s help for that.
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I think that’s a fair and accurate long term issue. But it does not address the question of why Putin’s sudden invasion preparations began almost upon Biden taking office. Putin then gaslighted the issue. I think the Biden administration got played. Part of the reason is Iran.
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
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I'm really not educated in this. Can you connect the dots more?
How do Iran/U.S. relations play into Russia's decision to invade Ukraine?
Are you generally saying Putin read Biden as being weak given the way he's acted in other foreign policy issues to the extent Putin read (correctly) that the U.S. really wouldn't involve itself in the war? In response to Marvin, do you think he read Biden as not willing to sanction or that he had saved enough to weather any Biden sanctions?
You have previously argued that Biden's actions precipitated Putin's response. That is inconsistent with the idea that Putin suddenly began preparations as soon as Biden took office, before he had time to, you know, act.
Russia was our agent in Iranian negotiations. Biden signaled that the JCPOA was a high priority. If I’m Putin, I’m thinking Biden would be lenient with me.
Biden pulled his punches on Russian sanctions. He provided an energy loophole thinking that high energy prices would be a political problem. He did the same for some other Russian finance and infrastructure regarding energy. Energy has become the currency of an effective foreign policy.
I think I’ve always argued that Biden increased the odds of the Russian invasion. There is no way to know about how much of a cause. By the time Biden moved in, his ideas were pretty clear. Those ideas, I think taken together, gave Putin a measure confidence we would be fairly passive. Russia has their intelligence agencies and Biden analysts just like we have. Biden’s very first actions were to pull American energy out of the picture.
You gave a list of things Biden did as President to enable Putin. Then you said Putin prepared to invade the moment Biden took office. Those thoughts are incompatible.
Some points on Putin's prep since Crimea:
www.nytimes.com
Again, only Putin knows if he would have done anything. But some people exhibit BDS in suggesting it is ONLY because of Biden. For example, they blame Biden for Iranian drones. The Iranian drone program has been in existence for a very long time, they employed unmanned aerial vehicles in the Iraq War. Why didn't any other administration stop Iran from having a drone program?
A fair-minded person says that there is virtually nothing ANY president could do to stop Iranian drones. If we had Washington, Jefferson, and Lincoln, Iran would have drones and Iran would use them to help virtually their only ally. But the crazies will crazy on the subject.
Since 2015, Russia, by diverting oil and gas revenue, has expanded its currency reserves to a staggering $631 billion, equivalent to a third of Russia’s entire economy. It is the fourth-largest such reserve in the world, among the largest of any petrostate’s.
And Mr. Putin, by paring down expenses, has kept overall debts to under two-thirds of his currency reserves.
Crucially, the once-dominant dollar now accounts for only 16 percent of Russia’s currency reserves, which Moscow has replaced with euros, China’s renminbi, and gold.
Russia has also restructured corporate debts in the country to be in rubles rather than dollars, for example.
At the same time, Russia has shifted some trade to Asia. And, after 2014, when Russia imposed trade restrictions on European cheese as a retaliation for sanctions, Moscow replaced lost imports with homegrown alternatives.
Putin, Facing Sanction Threats, Has Been Saving for This Day (Published 2022)
Since paying the price for annexing Crimea in 2014, Russia has tried to make its economy sanctions-proof, hoarding currency to insulate the country.
So he was working hard at preparing all through Trump's term. Would he have done this under Trump? I do not know and I am absolutely sure no one else here knows. Some reasons he may have include:- He is old, may not have time to outwait
- He invested heavily in nationalism for this reason and may have hoped Trump would act like India and Brazil
- He couldn't hoard cash forever
- Western nations are trying to use LESS oil and gas, not more. A tech breakthrough in batteries, for example, and he loses a key weapon.
A fair-minded person says that there is virtually nothing ANY president could do to stop Iranian drones. If we had Washington, Jefferson, and Lincoln, Iran would have drones and Iran would use them to help virtually their only ally. But the crazies will crazy on the subject.
The build up of forces near Ukraine did not begin until March/April of 2021. The Russians set about making themselves more sanctions proof after the reaction to their annexation of Crimea.
I don't think any of us can say with 100% certainty what the cause was for going when they did, but if we are using the build up of cash reserves as an example of an early preparation, it could just as easily be argued that was a contingency plan to be more sanction resistant to the West over anything in the future.
I think I could make a compelling argument that this was Biden screwing up, that is was a long term plan, and/or that Putin's health mixed with his ambitions to be a historical figure are what led to when the invasion occurred. In all likelihood, it is probably like baking a cake where all of the ingredients (and some I did not mention) went into the cake.
The list of things included two he did or happened before he was POTUS.
In any event, Biden was a well-known quantity. His promises made during the campaign made him also highly predictable. I didn’t mention and we don’t know much about the millions Russians paid to the Biden family. It would be nice if some smart investigative reporters would look at that.
Most likely there were several factors involved. We'd have to be inside Putin's head to really know for sure.
*Note: You should edit "Biden family" to read "Biden crime family" to stay consistent with your brethren.
One item minimally discussed that I believe has a much higher influence than you are probably giving credit to:
Putin is dying.
We know it. He knows it.
The difference is, he has probably known about it for over two years now. Heck, he might have even known about it for longer than that, but we also know that A) Covid and B) China giving a stern warning that nothing was to happen until after the Olympics, likely delayed things.
So it wouldn't have mattered if Biden or Trump was in office right now, Putin was going in. Because it is literally the last thing he is going to do.
Putin is dying.
We know it. He knows it.
The difference is, he has probably known about it for over two years now. Heck, he might have even known about it for longer than that, but we also know that A) Covid and B) China giving a stern warning that nothing was to happen until after the Olympics, likely delayed things.
So it wouldn't have mattered if Biden or Trump was in office right now, Putin was going in. Because it is literally the last thing he is going to do.
I read some about this. I always put it in the rumor category. Is there substance?
Putin suggests this is a long term objective of unification of Ukraine and Russia. I think it is more mercenary in that Russia needs better access to the Black Sea. That seemingly has not worked out as planned. The invasion buildup in the first weeks of Biden’s term is not a coincidence. One thing I neglected to mention above was that Biden said a “minor incursion“ would not be a big deal. There are lots of factors suggesting an opportunistic Putin took advantage of demonstrable Biden indecision and timidity. The Biden Administration (as did many) thought Putin would finish off the war in weeks. IIRC the US talked about helping Zelenskyy escape. Only when Russian incompetence became clear did we get aggressive. Now the Iranians are involved. Ugh.
There's ALOT of signs. Put it this way, there is at least as much out there as Biden suffering dementia. Take that for what you will.
I see Representative Gosar has decided to tell the progressive caucus, "Hold my beer". He has invited Putin and Zelensky to Arizona for peace negotiations with him, Gosar, as moderator.
kjzz.org
Gosar wants Arizona to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine
A U.S. congressman thinks Russia and Ukraine can agree to peace if their presidents come talk things over in Arizona.An advocacy group started by former Republicans says Paul Gosar is among conservatives who are pro-Vladimir Putin.Gosar sent a letter this week to the Russian and Ukrainian...
kjzz.org
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
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So he very well might be pro-Putin.I see Representative Gosar has decided to tell the progressive caucus, "Hold my beer". He has invited Putin and Zelensky to Arizona for peace negotiations with him, Gosar, as moderator.
Gosar wants Arizona to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine
A U.S. congressman thinks Russia and Ukraine can agree to peace if their presidents come talk things over in Arizona.An advocacy group started by former Republicans says Paul Gosar is among conservatives who are pro-Vladimir Putin.Gosar sent a letter this week to the Russian and Ukrainian...
I am not.
I think the notion of Russia and Ukraine talking about peace is a good idea. Not that they are going to do it with this guy.
I wish they would talk. I think the progressives were wrong, we cannot negotiate for Ukraine. This guy is wrong because he flat out should not be involved
A neutral party, the UN, India, someone can serve as mediator. But it cannot happen in the US, and it cannot be some joker.
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Yeah, and there were, and are, plenty of Americans who admired Mao and Castro.
So what?
We could drown Putin in his own oil if we'd just turn our energy companies loose.
The only thing holding us back from doing so is Biden.
It was Biden's weakness that got us into this situation. After Putin saw the non-response from the US under Obama/Biden, he figured he could invade Ukraine in its entirety under Biden.
And if his military was worth a shit, he would have. Despite our support for Ukraine, we are johnny-come-lately.
Biden is just following what his generals tell him. Biden knows not to make his own decisions and so far it's working out for everybody but Russia and Putin.
