4% growth looking more like a reality. Link

[VanPastorMan]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/tru...rue-as-americans-spend-tax-bill-proceeds.html
Notice this is CNBC and not Fox. Just saying. Now let me ask you folks a question. Are you happy about this? Are you happy that our economy is growing at a rate where we were told would not happen again? Obama said those days were over. Also with the unemployment rate at record lows, does this make you happy? Tell me why or why not.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Not answering your question, but here's an interesting chart that describes why the business cycle is longer

 

[iu_a_att]

Seems like a good report. We should party like its 2014!

 

[Marvin the Martian]

The usual problem remains, wages are not keeping up. We are also not necessarily spending tax cut money.:

Many have dipped into savings. The U.S. saving rate slipped to 3.1 percent in the first three months of the year, down from 3.9 percent a year earlier.​

 

[hoot1]

One quarter of 4% which follows a 2% quarter doesn't make for a permanent trend.

I still think a 3% long term rate is the best we can do with government deficits driving up interest rates. The higher interest rates then off setting some of the potential gains associated with the lower taxes.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

One quarter of 4% which follows a 2% quarter doesn't make for a permanent trend.

I still think a 3% long term rate is the best we can do with government deficits driving up interest rates. The higher interest rates then off setting some of the potential gains associated with the lower taxes.

Huh? Government deficits are driving up interest rates or the Fed's tightening is? If it were deficits, you couldn't explain 2015, Japan, etc.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

One nonpartisan thing everyone can get excited about...

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Seems like a good report. We should party like its 2014!

I realize it's impossible for people on the left to admit it, but this is quite impressive given where we are in economic cycle.

 

[iu_a_att]

I realize it's impossible for people on the left to admit it, but this is quite impressive given where we are in economic cycle.

Well I would be delighted to be impressed but I am no expert. May I respectfully ask you to explain what impresses you about the growth?

First, we just had a truly massive stimulus package in the form of tax cuts. The Republican stimulus package comes out at cost of $1.5 trillion dollars. The Obama stimulus was just over half that. Are you surprised that massive stimulus produces economic activity?

Perhaps the growth exceeds economist's projections for the impact at this point in the business cycle? But your chart above suggests that growth was relatively anemic during the Obama years following such a massive recession compared to previous recessions. Is that a surprise given the relatively small stimulus that followed the 2008 recession combined with the massive cuts in governmental expenditures that occurred particularly at the state levels. Are we really surprised at the slower than expected recovery that took place during the Obama administration? Wouldn't it make sense that there is more room for growth now as a consequence of the growth the Republican congress and Republican governors together with an administration overly worried about budget deficits blocked the last 6 years?

I think we should be impressed that government stimulus programs work as well as they do. The conservative economists told us they wouldn't work because investors would take account of the effect of stimulus on exploding government deficits that would inevitably limit growth. They seem to have been wrong. Budget deficits just don't seem to matter I guess.

By way of analogy. We have just learned that sea levels are rising faster than expected. Are you impressed? Well, once we know that 3 trillion tons of ice have melted in Antarctica in the last 25 years the sea level rise makes a good deal more sense. I guess we might be impressed at the magnitude of melting but not, given that melting, at the subsequent rise in sea levels. Fortunately, as Keynes noted, in the long run we are all dead.

 

[hoosboot]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/tru...rue-as-americans-spend-tax-bill-proceeds.html
Notice this is CNBC and not Fox. Just saying. Now let me ask you folks a question. Are you happy about this? Are you happy that our economy is growing at a rate where we were told would not happen again? Obama said those days were over. Also with the unemployment rate at record lows, does this make you happy? Tell me why or why not.

I'd answer your question, but you never respond to questions other people have, so it seems like a waste of time. Sad!

 

[twenty02]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/tru...rue-as-americans-spend-tax-bill-proceeds.html
Notice this is CNBC and not Fox. Just saying. Now let me ask you folks a question. Are you happy about this? Are you happy that our economy is growing at a rate where we were told would not happen again? Obama said those days were over. Also with the unemployment rate at record lows, does this make you happy? Tell me why or why not.

You claimed last week that we were already at 4% (even 5%!!) growth. I proved you wrong again and again. You crawled into your hole, as usual, and never replied.

Now you are back at it again with estimates of the future, rather than real hard data of what has existed.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?..._term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog

 

[twenty02]

Huh? Government deficits are driving up interest rates or the Fed's tightening is? If it were deficits, you couldn't explain 2015, Japan, etc.

Seems to me it's a combo....long-term rates are moving up too. Aren't new Treasury issues peaking again?..and it becomes even clearer that we have long-term fiscal problems with no end in sight.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Only a leftist would call a tax cut “Stimulus”. It’s my friggin money douche.

Do not pay any of your money for taxes and see what happens. If it is your money, you certainly have that right, no?

 

[twenty02]

Only a leftist would call a tax cut “Stimulus”. It’s my friggin money douche.

That's ridiculously dumb. Fiscal stimulus by economic definition includes tax cuts.....That's not a left, right or center position.....it's a basic fact.

 

[iu_a_att]

Only a leftist would call a tax cut “Stimulus”. It’s my friggin money douche.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stimulus_(economics)

Everyone who has ever taken an economics class would call a tax cut a fiscal stimulus.

If Congress simultaneously cut 1.5 trillion of spending then we would not call it a stimulus.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

If Congress simultaneously cut 1.5 trillion of spending then we would not call it a stimulus

Right, but this congress cut taxes and spent a whole lot more. Of course the economy will grow, until/unless inflation hits.

 

[twenty02]

Right, but this congress cut taxes and spent a whole lot more. Of course the economy will grow, until/unless inflation hits.

We've had huge fiscal stimulus...large tax cut combined with a large spending increase. At a time of full employment.

Derp.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

We've had huge fiscal stimulus...large tax cut combined with a large spending increase. At a time of full employment.

Derp.

Not exactly keynesian in timing. These are the same people that demanded belt tightening in the great recession. The right answers often do not stand out, the clearly wrong ones do.

 

[Bruce1]

You're such a douche. Of course this is good [temporary] news. What's your point?

The point is that many on this board said this was a fantasy that would never occur. and those people are going to have to eat some crow over it.

 

[twenty02]

The point is that many on this board said this was a fantasy that would never occur. and those people are going to have to eat some crow over it.

WTF ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

NOTHING has changed from the long-term trend lines. 1Q was at 2.0%. There was expected to be some bounce back in 2Q.....but nothing to indicate a long term change in the trend.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Seems to me it's a combo....long-term rates are moving up too. Aren't new Treasury issues peaking again?..and it becomes even clearer that we have long-term fiscal problems with no end in sight.

10 year is only yielding under 3%. That is not indicative of fiscal problems.

And again, if the markets cared about this at all, you wouldn't see JGB's at 70 bps for the 30-year. To me, it's insanity, but what do we know?

 

[iu_a_att]

10 year is only yielding under 3%. That is not indicative of fiscal problems.

And again, if the markets cared about this at all, you wouldn't see JGB's at 70 bps for the 30-year. To me, it's insanity, but what do we know?

The absence of any inflationary effects is the most interesting part of all this. Is it because wages are NOT rising?

 

[37Hoosier]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/tru...rue-as-americans-spend-tax-bill-proceeds.html
Notice this is CNBC and not Fox. Just saying. Now let me ask you folks a question. Are you happy about this? Are you happy that our economy is growing at a rate where we were told would not happen again? Obama said those days were over. Also with the unemployment rate at record lows, does this make you happy? Tell me why or why not.

Well, I believe most people are ok when the economy does ok. I would say that short term growth numbers does not a trend make though. I do not recall Obama saying "those days are over" and the economy was doing well and recovering from a near total breakdown under his watch, which I was also ok with. What is your point? I would say the current congress is totally fiscally irresponsible and running up massive deficits that one day will come home to bite us on the ass. Cutting taxes and increasing spending dramatically...some day it all has to be paid for, so the jury is out in my opinion as I don't run my life based on soft quarterly numbers & call it a win.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

The absence of any inflationary effects is the most interesting part of all this. Is it because wages are NOT rising?

I believe I linked a story above that inflation is higher than wage growth. So what happens if we finally get wage growth?

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Only a leftist would call a tax cut “Stimulus”. It’s my friggin money douche.

Well, it’s basic English, my friend.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

The absence of any inflationary effects is the most interesting part of all this. Is it because wages are NOT rising?

What are you asking in reference to?

 

[twenty02]

10 year is only yielding under 3%. That is not indicative of fiscal problems.

And again, if the markets cared about this at all, you wouldn't see JGB's at 70 bps for the 30-year. To me, it's insanity, but what do we know?

No, you are right...only thing that really matters to LT yields is inflation. You could argue that current fiscal (and trade) policies are more inflationary than the prior admin. 10 yr went from 1.8 to 3.0 since the election.

 

[iu_a_att]

What are you asking in reference to?

The fact there seems to be little inflation despite massive deficit spending increase

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

No, you are right...only thing that really matters to LT yields is inflation. You could argue that current fiscal (and trade) policies are more inflationary than the prior admin. 10 yr went from 1.8 to 3.0 since the election.

No question these are more inflationary policies, but I just don't know that most of that jump in yields is as attributable to fiscal policy compared to Fed Funds targeting changes.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

The fact there seems to be little inflation despite massive deficit spending increase

Isn't it too early to tell? Some of that tax benefit is being spread into next year.

But clearly inflation is moving higher.

 

[twenty02]

No question these are more inflationary policies, but I just don't know that most of that jump in yields is as attributable to fiscal policy compared to Fed Funds targeting changes.

Well yield curve definitely has flattened considerably.....the spreads between short/long term yields are now lowest since 2007. Now there is some concern the curve may invert by this fall.....which, as you know, is a recession predictor (though lagging....so targeting 2019 or more likely 2020).

This dovetails with Bernanke's recent remarks....saying the economy is headed "off the cliff".

https://www.investopedia.com/news/ben-bernanke-economy-headed-cliff/


May be a little dramatic....but I think it's certainly time to start moving a bit defensive and start a bit of deleveraging.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Well yield curve definitely has flattened considerably.....the spreads between short/long term yields are now lowest since 2007. Now there is some concern the curve may invert by this fall.....which, as you know, is a recession predictor (though lagging....so targeting 2019 or more likely 2020).

This dovetails with Bernanke's recent remarks....saying the economy is headed "off the cliff".

https://www.investopedia.com/news/ben-bernanke-economy-headed-cliff/


May be a little dramatic....but I think it's certainly time to start moving a bit defensive and start a bit of deleveraging.

Timing is everything. I am keeping a close eye on the steepness (or lack thereof).

 

[VanPastorMan]

One quarter of 4% which follows a 2% quarter doesn't make for a permanent trend.

I still think a 3% long term rate is the best we can do with government deficits driving up interest rates. The higher interest rates then off setting some of the potential gains associated with the lower taxes.

Did we raise interest rates recently? I was unaware of it. Isn't the reason they raise interest rates because they want to slow down the money supply so inflation doesn't go haywire?

 

[VanPastorMan]

Seems like a good report. We should party like its 2014!

The usual problem remains, wages are not keeping up. We are also not necessarily spending tax cut money.:

Many have dipped into savings. The U.S. saving rate slipped to 3.1 percent in the first three months of the year, down from 3.9 percent a year earlier.​

So you are saying the American people don't trust the news yet? Why would that be? I know I speak from the right, but it looks like the press is ignoring this good news. Do you think that if the numbers keep getting better for let's say 6 months or so the American people will start to spend?

 

[VanPastorMan]

Well, I believe most people are ok when the economy does ok. I would say that short term growth numbers does not a trend make though. I do not recall Obama saying "those days are over" and the economy was doing well and recovering from a near total breakdown under his watch, which I was also ok with. What is your point? I would say the current congress is totally fiscally irresponsible and running up massive deficits that one day will come home to bite us on the ass. Cutting taxes and increasing spending dramatically...some day it all has to be paid for, so the jury is out in my opinion as I don't run my life based on soft quarterly numbers & call it a win.

Here is one article where economic issues are discussed. When Obama spoke about the economy I believe he was speaking about the stimulus not working as much as he thought. https://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/11/07/obama-warns-of-new-normal-for-economy/

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Did we raise interest rates recently?

Wut?

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Tax cut = artificial tempory growth

why would you characterize it as artificial or temporary?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

why would you characterize it as artificial or temporary?

If the deficit projections are accurate we will eventually need to raise taxes or cut spending or more probably both. Given how large both may have to be, it certainly will be a drag on the economy

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

If the deficit projections are accurate we will eventually need to raise taxes or cut spending or more probably both. Given how large both may have to be, it certainly will be a drag on the economy

That's not what was said.

 

[37Hoosier]

Here is one article where economic issues are discussed. When Obama spoke about the economy I believe he was speaking about the stimulus not working as much as he thought. https://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/11/07/obama-warns-of-new-normal-for-economy/

So what? Again, what’s your point? Short term numbers are not a trend. It is a fact you will overlook virtually any lie, action, and rationalize and lie to others to support this buffoon so you have zero credibility. I guess if the economy does well it helps u con money out the gullible that show up to hear your nonsense. Great welfare scam for you I suppose, live off of others while you condem others who might need help.