I’ve reached a similar conclusion via a similar thought experiment: What if tOSU beat IU and PSU, all 3 teams finished 11-1, and then tOSU beat Oregon in the B1G championship game? In that scenario the B1G would have 4 teams with only 1 loss iirc. Do all 4 get into the playoffs?
I’m not sure they do. First, I don’t see 4 B1G teams getting in unless 4 SEC teams do too, regardless of their losses. If Notre Dame gets in, plus a G5 rep like Boise, that would leave only 2 spots for the ACC and Big 12, and they’d be screaming bloody murder (as would a possibly undefeated service academy).
In this scenario I suspect that at least 3 ACC/Big 12 teams get in and IU, as the presumably lowest rated B1G 10 team, might be on the proverbial bubble. Even more so than a “national brand” SEC team with 2 losses, as unfair as that might be.
I know some people will say “no way they would leave IU out” but I’m not sure about that. What if an SEC team with 2 losses is rated higher than IU? What if both Miami and Clemson finish with 1 loss each? What if Iowa State or BYU finishes undefeated and the other finishes with 1 loss?
A lot of folks seemed to think that expanding the playoff to 12 teams would help to avoid situations like the one with an undefeated Florida State, but the cynic in me felt that the opposite would be more likely: instead of one team getting shafted by a 4 team bracket, 2 or even 3 teams could get shafted by a 12 team bracket.
IMO as long as they were going to expand from 4 to 12, they might as well have just expanded all the way to 16 with no 1st round byes. IIRC the FCS playoff includes 24 teams, so logistics aren’t a big issue.
