Harris vs. Trump 2024
- By cosmickid
- The Water Cooler
- 1931 Replies
I'm genuinely curious...And the early numbers out of NC, GA, AZ, NV, etc have been disastrous for Dems. PA looking excellent.
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Explain to me why these PA numbers are noteworthy?
GOP 12,900
Dem 8500
So +4400 GOP ballot requests to subtract from the current Dem lead of 1,063,834- 546,298 in ballot requests? And gaining 2.2% on the 578,883- 253,765 the Dems have in ballots returned?
It's an OK day for the GOP, but both parties have had the ability to request/return ballots for the same numbers of days and somehow the Dems have managed to more than double the % of the returned vote at 63% -27.6%. Most Dem early vote analysts felt the Pubs would be doing better at this point due to their partial endorsement of Early mail votes. So I think Dems are content with where the PA early vote numbers are...
Also this doesn't take into account unaffiliated voters, who imho will skew younger and Dem. The gender disparity in returned ballots is pretty pronouced with females leading in ballots returned 531,794- 440,801. So overall women have returned more ballots than registered GOP voters have.Of course some of these women are Trump voters, but female registration numbers in PA have skyrocketed following Harris entry into the race, esp in the immdeiate aftermath of the Taylor Swift (who happens to be from PA) endorsement...
Since Pubs are exceeding their 2020 early vote numbers it will be interesting to see how much canibalization of their election day vote is occurring among these early voters? Anecdotally you hear a lot of MAGA voters interviewed who say they are voting early this year to try and keep Dem early vote differential down. But early voting was only around 20% of the electorate in 2020, so it's not a state where the majority of Democrats are going to just vote early. Esp in Philly and Pittsburgh...
Edit- On possible cannibalization... Just informed that 40% of the PA males voting GOP by mail so far cast their vote on election day in 2020...