Would losses by Mich St. and O$U today help our chances (provided we make it to BIG final)?
- Thread starter jughaid
- Start date
I think we want MSU to win. Beating Purdue would improve their ranking and probably also ours as a result. Plus we have a much better chance at squeaking into an auto bid with Purdue out of it.
OSU, on the other hand, I think I'd prefer them to lose. They aren't ranked high enough to help us if we beat them on Saturday, like Illinois, and they aren't currently so much worse than Illinois that our chances of getting an auto bud go up a bunch if they eliminate Illinois.
OSU, on the other hand, I think I'd prefer them to lose. They aren't ranked high enough to help us if we beat them on Saturday, like Illinois, and they aren't currently so much worse than Illinois that our chances of getting an auto bud go up a bunch if they eliminate Illinois.
I'm not sure it matters. From what I'm hearing, which I've been saying for over a month, our only path is to win the damn thing, so not sure it matters who we play. But, I don't think there's much of a chance we beat Purdue, so them losing helps. If we play them, I'd tell everybody to take it at Edey constantly and try and get him in foul trouble. That's about the only way I could see us beating them.
if it comes down to the NET rankings, then nope.
My son, who watches a lot of the Vegas/odds sites, texted me last night and said that one of the sites now gives us a 55% chance of making the tourney if we beat Neb tonight. Told him that seems too generous, I really thought we had to make it to Sunday to have a legitimate argument. And since I still don't think this team has any chance of getting out of the first weekend of the tourney, it doesn't matter as much to me as it should.
My son, who watches a lot of the Vegas/odds sites, texted me last night and said that one of the sites now gives us a 55% chance of making the tourney if we beat Neb tonight. Told him that seems too generous, I really thought we had to make it to Sunday to have a legitimate argument. And since I still don't think this team has any chance of getting out of the first weekend of the tourney, it doesn't matter as much to me as it should.
after what I saw from the refs last night, I wouldn't count on that happening.
btw, I didn't realize former B1G ref Bo Boroski had retired. Anyone who wants to kill 10 minutes, go check out his Twit/X feed....guy is an absolute freaken tool, and obviously NOT a fan of IU. As time goes by, Ted Valentine suddenly doesn't seem so bad. Can't believe I just wrote that.
Need OSU to lose. Beating IL is monumental if we lose Sunday.
I didn't necessarily think IU looked very good last night...
I guess a neutral court helps..But Trey not playing will become a glaring missing piece..
I guess a neutral court helps..But Trey not playing will become a glaring missing piece..
IU needs to win out imo to make any chance of a bid! I think a couple losses last night though did help Indiana State possibly secure their way in, so it may not just be that shitty team up north being the only Indiana team making it in!
I don’t see how MSU can beat Purdue. MSU is a very average team. I think the best hope is for IU is to get to play Illinois and beat them and hope it’s enough. First, though, IU has a tough challenge tonight.
I'm hearing the opposite as it pertains to ISU. They're out. Probably deservedly after their 2-game losing streak to shitty teams in February.
no, we don't have the resume. were it just a bad record with some quality wins ... i'll go you one further ... big 10 only gets 5 this year solid, everybody else is waiting except the BTT winner of those it applies to. League is bad top to bottom, it will be a big mid-major type year
B1G will get at least six (PUR, ILL, NEB, NW, WIS and MSU), and probably seven if OSU beats ILL.
Sparty, Wisconsin, Illinois & Indiana are the winners we need today.
Sparty over Wisconsin, Iu over Illinois
IU vs Sparty for the big would be our best chance IMHO.
Dave Revsine is the first talking head to start mentioning us as getting onto the bubble, but I take that with a grain of salt given that part of his job is to pimp for Big Ten teams.
they slapped us by 20+ twice for a reason. They are a terrible match up for our roster. And if Gallo's out...that match up gets even worse. If we make it to Sunday and still hanging on to tourney hopes, a 30 pt beat down on CBS is the last thing we need.
yeah his opinion on the subject is nice, thanks Dave. But has zero impact with the committee.
I don't think we need to worry about the tourney bubble unless we're still alive tomorrow morning. If we are...then game on, we have a chance to be in the discussion.
If Nebraska beats us by 15 again tonight, then all this chatter is fools gold.
We have two big problems when it comes to playing our way on to the bubble.
1. Our NET. Even if it isn't a central decision for enough of the committee members, to get us in to serious consideration...our is soooo bad, it will have a big impact at some point in the discussions.
2. We're not doing all this in a vacuum. There are many other bubble teams jockeying for position as well. And the last few days have not been kind, at all, to teams on the bottom end of the bubble trying to play their way in. A number of teams like Providence, NC State, St Johns, Virginia...are all winning, and/or have huge wins over highly ranked teams in the last couple days. They're ahead of IU, and so far, doing more to build their resume. Not good for IU. Also...Colorado State beat Nevada last night, that's a bid steal. And Duquesne beat Dayton last night as well, another bid steal. There are a few of those every year, but in a year when IU needs to draw an inside straight on the turn and the river, you can't have obvious bid stealers like those two.
I get the pull on our part to keep open an at large bid as a possibility. But it just isn't going to happen. Even if we thump Nebraska by 30, and Illinois by 30, it isn't going to happen.
We need to win the BTT to get in. So my take is we want OSU to beat Illinois, and Purdue to lose before Sunday. That's our actual best chance to win the BTT...so its our best chance to get in to the NCAA.
1. Our NET. Even if it isn't a central decision for enough of the committee members, to get us in to serious consideration...our is soooo bad, it will have a big impact at some point in the discussions.
2. We're not doing all this in a vacuum. There are many other bubble teams jockeying for position as well. And the last few days have not been kind, at all, to teams on the bottom end of the bubble trying to play their way in. A number of teams like Providence, NC State, St Johns, Virginia...are all winning, and/or have huge wins over highly ranked teams in the last couple days. They're ahead of IU, and so far, doing more to build their resume. Not good for IU. Also...Colorado State beat Nevada last night, that's a bid steal. And Duquesne beat Dayton last night as well, another bid steal. There are a few of those every year, but in a year when IU needs to draw an inside straight on the turn and the river, you can't have obvious bid stealers like those two.
I get the pull on our part to keep open an at large bid as a possibility. But it just isn't going to happen. Even if we thump Nebraska by 30, and Illinois by 30, it isn't going to happen.
We need to win the BTT to get in. So my take is we want OSU to beat Illinois, and Purdue to lose before Sunday. That's our actual best chance to win the BTT...so its our best chance to get in to the NCAA.
I think that we have to get to Saturday to have a shot. I think if we make it to championship, we get an at large. Have to beat Nebraska first. After watching our defense last night, I don't have a high level of confidence that happens. I think it's more likely that Nebraska beats by close to 20 after us being within 8-12 most of the game by and just blows it open the final 6-8 minutes of the game. This, in my opinion, is a more likely outcome than IU winning the game. I hope I am wrong and IU wins the game by any margin. Just need to score 1 more point than they do!
Hope you're right. Hope it ends up a moot point with a BTT championship.
But I just don't seen it. Too much "bad bubble activity", and too deep a NET hole to climb out of.
he may have seen this number before Nevada lost...some of the mid major upsets are going to result in less at large bids available for teams like IU. We screwed our chances before New Years when we screwed our NET. And the bad home loss to Penn State (our only Q3 loss) hurt real bad.
But I've said in a few threads...bid or no bid...doesn't anyone really see us getting out of the first weekend of the tourney?
If we got in as an 11/12 seed...maybe...anything higher than 11, I don't see it.
Sounds counter intuitive, but the question was about getting out of the first weekend. 10-12 seed, the first round matchups will likely be similar in difficulty.
2nd game is where it gets dicey. When I look at the likely 2 seeds (2nd round matchup for 10 seed), I don't see us beating any of them. Start looking at 3 and 4 seeds, there are some teams I think we could play with.
I don’t think anyone in their right mind can say that they see us getting out of the first weekend, but I’m sure most would prefer to still be in rather than not.
I agree with you. 0% at-large. But Colorado State was NET of 37 before they beat Nevada and now they are 31 and Nevada dropped from 30-34. So I'm not sure that's a bid stealer.
Could be... But on Lunardi, Nevada was a 5ish seed before that game, and CSU was a 10 seed. Had Nevada won that game, CSU is the exact type of team that could be leap frogged by a team like IU making a hard charge at the end. Nevada is much more insulated. They're a lock.
Anyway...too many of these similar situations playing out it seems. There are too many teams IU would have to leap frog, and too many of them are playing their way IN, instead of OUT, right now.
Beat Nebraska and Illinois both by 30 and our NET will jump at least 25 spots if not more. And KenPom will move up significantly as well. Cincinnati beat a depleted Kansas team by 22 the other night and jumped 10 spots in the NET overnight.
I got 2 tickets to the Moon to sell if your still dreaming!
Ohio State is a team that most of the talking heads now agree is squarely on the bubble and maybe in with a win today against Illinois. A refresher on Ohio State's resume:
3-6 Q1, 3-5 Q2 with a Q3 loss
Indiana's resume to date:
3-8 Q1, 6-4 Q2 with a Q3 loss
Not to mention the most important stat, Indiana 2-0 against the Buckeyes this year.
3-6 Q1, 3-5 Q2 with a Q3 loss
Indiana's resume to date:
3-8 Q1, 6-4 Q2 with a Q3 loss
Not to mention the most important stat, Indiana 2-0 against the Buckeyes this year.
Work on your grammar first before going home to your fat and miserable wife. I'd take the two from you but don't want to ruin your escape.
short term, yeah sure.
Long term, that locks CMW in longer....is that good? I really don't know how to feel about all that. Feels like 2001-2002 and CMD.
If Woody gets us into the tourney 3 yrs straight, he's not leaving next year no matter how shitty the season turns.
Just thinking big picture, which is very frustrating when it comes to IU bball.
Again, not really. Its not just Q wins without context.
OSU's Q1 wins are much better than IU's.
OSU has HIGH Q1 wins over top 10 teams in PU and Bama. IU has zero top 20 Q1 wins.
The Q3 losses are different as well. Ironically, OSU's Q3 loss was against IU by 3. IU's Q3 loss was a 15 point blowout loss at home to PSU.
OSU blown out 4 times. IU blown out 8 times.
OSU handled their cupcakes while IU barely beat ours.
So, again. IU has no signature wins. IU has 8 blowout losses including a Q3 blowout at home. IU struggled to beat their cupcakes.
This is why IU's numbers are terrible across the board and why teams like OSU/MSU (who both had mediocre seasons) are much better. Those teams have signature wins, less blowout losses and they stomped their cupcakes.
You're trying too hard....again.
All you're doing is reinforcing how flawed the NET rating system has become. When two teams with similar resumes are that far apart it's a problem especially when Team A beat Team B TWICE head to head. Ohio State lost to 8-24 Michigan...enough said.
Please tell me you don't think OSU beating the likes of Merrimack and New Orleans by 30+ points should trump the fact that IU beat OSU TWICE.
I'm not trying anything. I'm stating facts, period.
The NET isn't meant to be an IU fanboy criteria. All systems have flaws, thats obvious, but its what we have.
There is NO metric system that favors IU this year. NET, Kenpom, BPI, Torvik, etc etc all rate IU terribly. Why? I just detailed why. You don't like it? Thats fine, but its reality.
When the questions you are asking are "what can we do to make a system rate this IU team better" instead of "what does/did this IU need to do to be rated better" you're asking the wrong questions.
I agree with everything you said except I think I might want IU to face ILL than OSU right now. OSU is on a heater at present. Either way, IU will have to beat 3 good (or playing well) teams on 3 consecutive days to make the NCAAT. IU hasn’t done that all year long, but then they hadn’t won 5 consecutive conference games all year long until recently.
You're justifying a completely flawed system partially based on efficiency. Efficiency isn't the end be all tool the committee uses. That doesn't make me a "fanboy" in any regard.
IU has a very similar resume as it pertains to quality wins/losses to Michigan State and a better resume than Ohio State. And IU is 3-0 against both those teams. It's ok to call out a flawed system when it arises. I am doing as such. There's no way MSU should be viewed as 70 spots higher than Indiana all things considered and I don't give a hoot what metric you decide to use. Actual game results should count for something.
Similar threads
