I think he'll "figure it out enough" to get another year after this year. I think with a solid NCAA appearance this year, whether he makes the 2nd weekend or not, wins the B10 or not, he'll be retained. And then I think he'll be able to bring back a decent core again from guys like Rice, Carlyle, Tucker, Newton, Cupps, etc... And he'll have the NIL backing to go fill the rest with impactful guys.
For many, that will feel good as it will be an improvement on this past season, and there will be some stability and optimism with the roster for the next season. But we won't end up being really any closer to getting back up in to the pre 1995 Indiana Basketball situation/status. And I don't think it's going to take a homerun, Stevens like candidate to get us back there, with our NIL capacities.
My support for Woodson, or lack thereof, is based much more on how they play, than the overall results. But if I had to put any results thresholds for my support in retaining him...Top 2-3 in the conference, and truly contending for the top spot. And then a good showing the NCAA. To me, that likely means winning at least 1 game, and not getting blown out in whatever round they lose in. If they battle down the stretch, and end up finishing 3rd in the B10, get a 4/5 seed in the NCAA tournament, lose a closely contested 2nd round game to a 4/5 seed, that's probably good enough. Especially if they show more consistency in effort and execution.