Will Professor Lichtman be correct again in 2024?

[cosmickid]

As he makes clear in this video, Prof Lichtman is not yet ready to make a prediciton between Trump/Biden. I know he's been mentioned once or twice and people may have a general idea how he uses his keys to predict Preesidential elections. But this video session goes into great detail about how his keys came to be and exactly what he evaluates...

This video is a little long, and won't be for everyone. I personally found it extemely enlightening. And spolier alert I didn't know the other guy was his son until at least half way thru. But because of that relationship the video has a lot more personal insight and imho he opens up a lot more than with other hosts I have seen him appear with. I also liked the color code chart that they use to illustrate exactly where each of the 13 keys stands presently...

It doesn't seem like any personal bias or preference enters in. Just an objective application he's used every election since Reagan's re-election in '84 and how he measures each key.

 

[Bowlmania]

As he makes clear in this video, Prof Lichtman is not yet ready to make a prediciton between Trump/Biden. I know he's been mentioned once or twice and people may have a general idea how he uses his keys to predict Preesidential elections. But this video session goes into great detail about how his keys came to be and exactly what he evaluates...

This video is a little long, and won't be for everyone. I personally found it extemely enlightening. And spolier alert I didn't know the other guy was his son until at least half way thru. But because of that relationship the video has a lot more personal insight and imho he opens up a lot more than with other hosts I have seen him appear with. I also liked the color code chart that they use to illustrate exactly where each of the 13 keys stands presently...

It doesn't seem like any personal bias or preference enters in. Just an objective application he's used every election since Reagan's re-election in '84 and how he measures each key.

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Forget the polls and the pundits. This guy is the man. He's been wrong only once in 40 years and, even then (Gore/Bush), he wasn't really wrong.

I didn't watch the entire video but my impression is that, while he's not quite ready to make his official prediction, things are looking good for the incumbent.

 

[bailey777]

Forget the polls and the pundits. This guy is the man. He's been wrong only once in 40 years and, even then (Gore/Bush), he wasn't really wrong.

I didn't watch the entire video but my impression is that, while he's not quite ready to make his official prediction, things are looking good for the incumbent.

in your eyes obviously they would be and i hope you remain arrogant. That will make it even sweeter when biden losses.

 

[hoot1]

Forget the polls and the pundits. This guy is the man. He's been wrong only once in 40 years and, even then (Gore/Bush), he wasn't really wrong.

I didn't watch the entire video but my impression is that, while he's not quite ready to make his official prediction, things are looking good for the incumbent.

Allan Lichtman has an amazing prediction record using his 13 key responses by voters as to whether an incumbent will be reelected.

Are Lichtman's method and ability to quantify qualitative data pure genius, or has he just been lucky?

Put me down on the side of just been lucky.