I'm pretty sure that the Biden campaign would love for Team Trump to waste the meager funds they have on a frivilous attempt to "win" New York. Meanwhile both AZ and now Nevada will have ballot measures to protect abortion access on the Nov ballot. Btw, abortion rights was a huge factor in the former Santos dsitrict (NY-3) switching from + Trump in 2020, to +7 Suozzi and the Dems in the 2023 special election.
That's just one of Trump's problems. The 2020 Trump state with the smallest margin (NC) just nominated a looney tunes for Governor on the GOP ticket. That means Trump will have to rely on ticket splitting in a state where the 2023 margin was less than 1%, and Robinson's anti abortion (and everything else) stance will further drive Dem turnout. Again more $$ Trump will have to invest into a state where he thought he could basically avoid doing so...
And the Ohio Senate race will be costly for the GOP as Sherrod Brown, already a formidable incumbent, has a huge fundraising advantage over wacky Bernie.Again ticket splitting could be an issue and Bernie's support for a National 15 week abortion ban may not play well in a state where the recent measure to protect abortion rights garnered nearly 57% support and passed by 14%...I'm not prediciting Biden will win Ohio, but Bernie's nomination makes it rougher for Trump to win.He's going to again have to invest funds he really doesn't have...