Tremont Waters

[T.M.P.]

My apologies if Johnson's 20.1% TO rate had already been posted. Nevertheless, the number shows that Johnson was one of the most TO prone on the team last season, and my reply was within the context of your post.

Shifting gears to your new target, Johnson's numbers don't indicate that he was getting 4 assists every 10 possessions. IU had 16 assists per 70 possessions last season. Rob's assist percentage was 20.5%, or 3.3 of those 16 team assists. His usage rate was 16.9% per 70 team possessions, or 11.9 individual possessions. 3.3/11.9 = 27.6% of his possessions ending with an assist. It's not a trivial task to then figure out how to split the remaining (10-(2.01+2.76)) 5.2 possessions into shots and passes.

For a meaningful measurement of individual player impact on offense, I think the appropriate metric is offensive rating (ORtg%). Here are actual offensive ratings from last season for IU regulars, ranked best to worst.
Zeisloft - 129.7
Bryant - 129.0
Ferrell - 125.6
Morgan - 120.5
Blackmon - 120.2
Bielfeldt - 117.8
Hartman - 115.9
Anunoby - 115.8
Johnson - 115.0
Williams - 109.7

Now you might observe Williams' low ORtg% and refute that this metric is a valid measure because anecdotally Williams was important to the offense last year. I would temper that notion with the fact that Williams' usage rating last season was a whopping 26.2% -- highest on the team, excluding JBJr. The sheer volume of Williams' touches gave him more chances to impact the offense.

Not arguing but need to point something out.

fwiw - stats show what they were intended to show. That stat was created to show efficiency, not productivity, nor impact. It does well in that manner. But, to show how much impact a player had - it needs multiplied by the usage factor (much like you're doing) or simply use a PER. (though it has defensive stats also) ... Some players don't have the gifts to use extensive possessions and a spot up shooter like NZ is a great example.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Why is that funny because we will have RJ, Newkirk, Jones and Green all at the guard position and I would bet the GT does not have that log jam at the guard position.

I would bet you're absolutely right, Scott - GT doesn't have a logjam of players LIKE RJ, Newkirk, Jones & Green.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

I pretty sure I read somewhere that UNC has gotten two commitments from players under 150

Link?

 

[IUINSB]

Tas cool it about slamming a recruit you sound like a little sissy. If kids are going to play at this level they better be able to take some critic. Nobody has slammed a recruit. Toughen up.

But don't you dare slam the coach.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

But don't you dare slam the coach.

Ok . . . <sob> . . . I'm sorry . . .

 

[Frosty83]

That's wishful, biased thinking right there

Who is your favorite college team?

 

[kkott]

I doubt too many good point guards wanted to play behind Yogi.

That's an excuse plain and simple. Good players want to play with other good players, and once Yogi was an upperclassmen, it's the coaches duty to have a backup in place. UNC had 3 top 100 PG's on their roster last year, 2of which were McD's: Marcus Paige, Nate Britt and Joel Berry and another backup that played for them in previous years: Stillman White.

How come other top flight programs can do it, but there are always excuses at IU? Guys don't want to play behind or good players, the in-state recruits we have all want to go out of state and not play for the in-state school nowadays, our top rated recruits don't like the color orange.... OK, I added the last one, but still: Stop with the excuses!

 

[schmib]

My apologies if Johnson's 20.1% TO rate had already been posted. Nevertheless, the number shows that Johnson was one of the most TO prone on the team last season, and my reply was within the context of your post.

Shifting gears to your new target, Johnson's numbers don't indicate that he was getting 4 assists every 10 possessions. IU had 16 assists per 70 possessions last season. Rob's assist percentage was 20.5%, or 3.3 of those 16 team assists. His usage rate was 16.9% per 70 team possessions, or 11.9 individual possessions. 3.3/11.9 = 27.6% of his possessions ending with an assist. It's not a trivial task to then figure out how to split the remaining (10-(2.01+2.76)) 5.2 possessions into shots and passes.

For a meaningful measurement of individual player impact on offense, I think the appropriate metric is offensive rating (ORtg%). Here are actual offensive ratings from last season for IU regulars, ranked best to worst.
Zeisloft - 129.7
Bryant - 129.0
Ferrell - 125.6
Morgan - 120.5
Blackmon - 120.2
Bielfeldt - 117.8
Hartman - 115.9
Anunoby - 115.8
Johnson - 115.0
Williams - 109.7

Now you might observe Williams' low ORtg% and refute that this metric is a valid measure because anecdotally Williams was important to the offense last year. I would temper that notion with the fact that Williams' usage rating last season was a whopping 26.2% -- highest on the team, excluding JBJr. The sheer volume of Williams' touches gave him more chances to impact the offense.

If his turnover rate is 20%, and he has nearly twice as many assists as he does turnovers, then he assists on nearly 40% of his possessions. This is apples to apples.

 

[schmib]

Blue teams win more than red teams. This is proven. So does it mean that if a red team changes uniform colors that they'll win more? And again, an assisted basket is worth how much more than an unassisted?

Until you can prove without doubt, which you can't, that an assisted basket is worth more, it's not, then your argument is just fan driven silliness and you have no understanding of basketball analytics or how they are used. Maybe read Oliver's book so your position is not one born of ignorance? Or not ..

It's a stylistic stat made for ignorant fans that has no real mathematical value. An assisted basket = 2 or 3 points. An unassisted basket = 2 or 3 points. There's no difference.

It's the reason every basketball analyst gauges assist percentage as a stylistic stat and a by product of team philosophy and not individual competency. Your example of assist ratio is not how they are formulated.

They don't care how many assists a player has. Because it doesn't matter. The better metric is how many assists a team has and more importantly where they are coming from. This shows their stylistic tendencies. They don't do this just to make you look ignorant. There's good reasoning for it.

Yes passing matters, because bad passes result in TO's. Yes winning teams probably have more assists because they make more baskets and less TO's. But what you posted means nothing. Now if you would have used an SOS weighted pace neutral assist ratio vs SOS weighted winning percentage it might mean something but you didn't. Because you don't understand analytics.

Regardless, his assist ratio is fine. The problem is his TO percentage which is a far better gauge of PG proficiency and winning and RJ's has been too high to not question. Look at Bronson Koening, is he an effective PG? His assist ratio is low. His TO ratio is exceptional.

and fwiw I will take Oliver's, Hollinger's, Pomeroy's and every NBA coach currently coaching and what they say about assists over your ideas. Maybe if you wrote a book on analytics or created a site that almost every teams uses I might take you seriously. But, until you do, I'll just view you as someone that doesn't understand which stats are valid.

If assists are "a stylistic stat made for ignorant fans that have no real mathematical value" why are so many teams switching to small ball, a style that emphasizes ball movement with lots of assists? This is a metric based decision. Guess who the top 2 teams in the NBA were last year in A:TO ratio? The Warriors and the Spurs. Guess who had the best records?
Of the 6 teams in the Big Ten last year who finished at 12-6 or better, 4 were in the top 6 in assists (Maryland was 7th). The 4 worst teams in the big as far as A:TO were PSU, Nebraska, OSU, and Rutgers, all of whom were terrible. If you claim assists don't have meaning you're the one who's ignorant.
Edit: OSU wasn't terrible, but they weren't very good.

 

[fpeaugh]

Who is your favorite college team?

I've lived in Indiana most of my life, graduated from IU, been a lifelong fan and had season tickets for over 30 years until I just couldn't take it any longer a couple years ago. So I'd say IU is probably my favorite team.

But unlike many on here I can remain somewhat objective when talking about my teams.

 

[T.M.P.]

If assists are "a stylistic stat made for ignorant fans that have no real mathematical value" why are so many teams switching to small ball, a style that emphasizes ball movement with lots of assists? This is a metric based decision. Guess who the top 2 teams in the NBA were last year in A:TO ratio? The Warriors and the Spurs. Guess who had the best records?
Of the 6 teams in the Big Ten last year who finished at 12-6 or better, 4 were in the top 6 in assists (Maryland was 7th). The 4 worst teams in the big as far as A:TO were PSU, Nebraska, OSU, and Rutgers, all of whom were terrible. If you claim assists don't have meaning you're the one who's ignorant.
Edit: OSU wasn't terrible, but they weren't very good.

Read a book ... seriously.

 

[Baller23Boogie]

Link?

If hes talking about players out of the top 150, they currently have 3 players committed outside of 150.

https://northcarolina.rivals.com/commitments/basketball/

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

If hes talking about players out of the top 150, they currently have 3 players committed outside of 150.

https://northcarolina.rivals.com/commitments/basketball/

Thanks for the link.
Roy has a tough sell right now until the academic scandal is settled - yet still is getting a 5 Star in Felton, the nephew of Raymond. Imagine Crean's recruiting if he had an academic scandal hanging over him for two years?

 

[Hoosier in Tokyo]

I don't know where this fits in the discussion, but I do understand the campaign put forth to either open the eyes of fellow Hoosiers to coaching mediocrity or to limit and cap the potential of any team's past present and future under Crean. I get all this. Nobody actually thinks he's the greatest coach but the support is there. Why?

Even if Crean's contract is 10 million a year returning the same results up until now, I'd support him. It's irrelevant what the remuneration of his contract is because I'm not the one paying and neither are taxpayers in the great State of Indiana per everyone here.

He has the support of many simply because he is the coach at IU. If we were looking for a replacement, it'd be different, but there are those who'll back Knight, Davis, and Crean, simply because they are the coach. It's not any loyalty to anyone person but just the program at a particular point in time.

 

[Frosty83]

I don't know where this fits in the discussion, but I do understand the campaign put forth to either open the eyes of fellow Hoosiers to coaching mediocrity or to limit and cap the potential of any team's past present and future under Crean. I get all this. Nobody actually thinks he's the greatest coach but the support is there. Why?

Even if Crean's contract is 10 million a year returning the same results up until now, I'd support him. It's irrelevant what the remuneration of his contract is because I'm not the one paying and neither are taxpayers in the great State of Indiana per everyone here.

He has the support of many simply because he is the coach at IU. If we were looking for a replacement, it'd be different, but there are those who'll back Knight, Davis, and Crean, simply because they are the coach. It's not any loyalty to anyone person but just the program at a particular point in time.

Unfortunately this is the America we live in. It's okay to ignore the American flag, or have no respect for the President of the US. Regardless of our personal feelings we used to support what the positions represented and respected the people who were there without looking to find faults. All positions of authority are now being attacked.
Police, Schools, Leaders etc... TC is just the local victim in Indiana for people who are not happy.

 

[CradleofBasketball]

Unfortunately this is the America we live in. It's okay to ignore the American flag, or have no respect for the President of the US. Regardless of our personal feelings we used to support what the positions represented and respected the people who were there without looking to find faults. All positions of authority are now being attacked.
Police, Schools, Leaders etc... TC is just the local victim in Indiana for people who are not happy.

Your hyperbole here is terrific. TC is no victim. He signed up for a tough job and he's being very well compensated. IMO, it's quite sensational to suggest that observations made about IU defense, ball handling, recruiting, mental preparation, or something else are somehow analog to disrespecting Old Glory and the POTUS. Those observations are also not symptomatic of some devious character assassination attempt. They're just observations -- many of them valid.

 

[Frosty83]

I would add there are many good things coming from the IU basketball team under the coach as well. These truths do not get mentioned nearly as much because of the large contingent that like to complain almost incessantly.

I don't believe many of us on here are defending Crean as much as we see someone getting picked on and its our nature to say "that's enough".

 

[JonesIndiana]

I've lived in Indiana most of my life, graduated from IU, been a lifelong fan and had season tickets for over 30 years until I just couldn't take it any longer a couple years ago. So I'd say IU is probably my favorite team.

But unlike many on here I can remain somewhat objective when talking about my teams.

Let me get this straight, you continued to pay for tickets up until a few years ago, and THEN got rid of them. That's some fan, and great timing. LOL

 

[JonesIndiana]

I can assure you there will never be another extension. I guarantee you that.

You have no idea, and certainly nothing you can guarantee. Sell it to someone else. You have a coin flip chance of being right, that is all. Not one iota more.

 

[fpeaugh]

Let me get this straight, you continued to pay for tickets up until a few years ago, and THEN got rid of them. That's some fan, and great timing. LOL

Yes. I saw a lot of great years. Have never regretted giving them up once. I don't plan to go back until Crean is gone. Luckily that's not far away.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

I would add there are many good things coming from the IU basketball team under the coach as well. These truths do not get mentioned nearly as much because of the large contingent that like to complain almost incessantly.

I don't believe many of us on here are defending Crean as much as we see someone getting picked on and its our nature to say "that's enough".

Crean has done a magnificent job with academics since he took over. He really has put "student" back into the term student-athlete that was missing under the prior regime.

Management of the program, discipline, in-game coaching and recruiting (all of which he is being paid handsomely) are all legitimate complaints.

 

[JonesIndiana]

Yes. I saw a lot of great years. Have never regretted giving them up once. I don't plan to go back until Crean is gone. Luckily that's not far away.

Until then you will just complain on a message board? What a life. Studies show miserable, bitter people live shorter lives. To each their own. Here's to your misery and IU's success, regardless who the coach is.

 

[Hoosier in Tokyo]

Unfortunately this is the America we live in. It's okay to ignore the American flag, or have no respect for the President of the US. Regardless of our personal feelings we used to support what the positions represented and respected the people who were there without looking to find faults. All positions of authority are now being attacked.
Police, Schools, Leaders etc... TC is just the local victim in Indiana for people who are not happy.

I agree. Once the person to lead our country is decided this November you have to get behind the person to back the country.

The support we have now depends on whether someone likes the way defense is played if at all, the recruits being recruited, the number of games played post season, the type of games played pre-conference. All valid points.

But everyone is different and there's mutual respect for those with higher expectations of the program; that is until people start to morally harass each other.

 

[fpeaugh]

Until then you will just complain on a message board? What a life. Studies show miserable, bitter people live shorter lives. To each their own. Here's to your misery and IU's success, regardless who the coach is.

I'm certainly not a miserable, bitter person. I just found better things to do for now.

 

[Hoosier in Tokyo]

I'm certainly not a miserable, bitter person. I just found better things to do for now.

You said you'd support Crean if we beat Kentucky then after the UNC loss you reverted back. What has happened over the summer up until now to make you feel further apart from the program? You seem to be more dissatisfied than in March.

 

[IU Scott]

Yes. I saw a lot of great years. Have never regretted giving them up once. I don't plan to go back until Crean is gone. Luckily that's not far away.

And hopefully they don't let you get tickets then because you jumped ship when things went bad.

 

[Kern County]

And hopefully they don't let you get tickets then because you jumped ship when things went bad.

How many years have you had season tickets?

 

[IU Scott]

How many years have you had season tickets?

Being a single parent of two I can't afford them but I never miss a game on tv. I also go to some games when they play in Indy but you don't have to go to games to be a big fan. I have seen season ticket holders a Colts games that couldn't tell you anything about the sport. Just because you have season tickets does not make you a better fan.

I just think if you had season tickets and gave them up just because of the coach I would not let you have the tickets back when or if they changed the coach. If I were in charge I would think I would want loyal fans being season ticket holders and not fair weather fans. It is like being a Cubs fans for years I would not like seeing all of these bandwagon fans jumping on board the last couple of years just because they are winning.

 

[IU Scott]

Being a single parent of two I can't afford them but I never miss a game on tv. I also go to some games when they play in Indy but you don't have to go to games to be a big fan. I have seen season ticket holders a Colts games that couldn't tell you anything about the sport. Just because you have season tickets does not make you a better fan.

I just think if you had season tickets and gave them up just because of the coach I would not let you have the tickets back when or if they changed the coach. If I were in charge I would think I would want loyal fans being season ticket holders and not fair weather fans. It is like being a Cubs fans for years I would not like seeing all of these bandwagon fans jumping on board the last couple of years just because they are winning.

Also i bought my daughter season tickets to football and basketball season since she is a freshmen at IU this year.

 

[Kern County]

Being a single parent of two I can't afford them but I never miss a game on tv. I also go to some games when they play in Indy but you don't have to go to games to be a big fan. I have seen season ticket holders a Colts games that couldn't tell you anything about the sport. Just because you have season tickets does not make you a better fan.

I just think if you had season tickets and gave them up just because of the coach I would not let you have the tickets back when or if they changed the coach. If I were in charge I would think I would want loyal fans being season ticket holders and not fair weather fans. It is like being a Cubs fans for years I would not like seeing all of these bandwagon fans jumping on board the last couple of years just because they are winning.

So, you've never been a season ticket holder but you're critical of someone who held season tickets for many years? In other words, you're critical of someone who did something you weren't willing to do.

Your hypocrisies are many.

 

[IU Scott]

So, you've never been a season ticket holder but you're critical of someone who held season tickets for many years? In other words, you're critical of someone who did something you weren't willing to do.

Your hypocrisies are many.

If I could afford them I would bye them and never let them go. Also my daughter as a student has season tickets for both football and basketball.

 

[Paterfamilias]

Being a single parent of two I can't afford them but I never miss a game on tv. I also go to some games when they play in Indy but you don't have to go to games to be a big fan. I have seen season ticket holders a Colts games that couldn't tell you anything about the sport. Just because you have season tickets does not make you a better fan.

I just think if you had season tickets and gave them up just because of the coach I would not let you have the tickets back when or if they changed the coach. If I were in charge I would think I would want loyal fans being season ticket holders and not fair weather fans. It is like being a Cubs fans for years I would not like seeing all of these bandwagon fans jumping on board the last couple of years just because they are winning.

Thomas Jefferson once said that "Dissent is the highest form of patriotism"

Here is the definition of patriotism:
noun
1. devoted love, support, and defense of one's country; national loyalty.

So Thomas Jefferson would view the dissent of fpeaugh and others as a higher form of support than that of the "true fans"

 

[Kern County]

If I could afford them I would bye them and never let them go. Also my daughter as a student has season tickets for both football and basketball.

I'm sure plenty of people have to stretch financially to be able to have them, so any excuse regarding affordability really is empty (if you're going to be a critic, as you've chosen to be).

 

[IU Scott]

Thomas Jefferson once said that "Dissent is the highest form of patriotism"

Here is the definition of patriotism:
noun
1. devoted love, support, and defense of one's country; national loyalty.

So Thomas Jefferson would view the dissent of fpeaugh and others as a higher form of support than that of the "true fans"

I would think people in the athletic department want to see people who is loyal to the program and not people who gives up on the program when things goes bad.

 

[hondo314]

I would think people in the athletic department want to see people who is loyal to the program and not people who gives up on the program when things goes bad.

give up? so far IU fan has mostly been showing up (to games and posting boards) and complaining. you are confusing disinterest with dissatisfaction.

 

[Kern County]

I would think people in the athletic department want to see people who is loyal to the program and not people who gives up on the program when things goes bad.

IU has clearly stated policies regarding season ticket availability and what one must do to obtain them (or, in the case of basketball, obtain them someday).

 

[Paterfamilias]

I would think people in the athletic department want to see people who is loyal to the program and not people who gives up on the program when things goes bad.

Kings, Queens, Emperors and Presidents all prefer blind loyalty, but that's not necessarily what is best for the Kingdom.

 

[IU Scott]

give up? so far IU fan has mostly been showing up (to games and posting boards) and complaining. you are confusing disinterest with dissatisfaction.

So are you saying that giving up you season tickets is not giving up on the program.

 

[IU Scott]

Kings, Queens, Emperors and Presidents all prefer blind loyalty, but that's not necessarily what is best for the Kingdom.

If you want to give up your tickets that is fine but i would never give them back to that person.

 

[fpeaugh]

You said you'd support Crean if we beat Kentucky then after the UNC loss you reverted back. What has happened over the summer up until now to make you feel further apart from the program? You seem to be more dissatisfied than in March.

Largely the failures in recruiting since then. Missing on 3-4 big 2017 in state recruits thus far and not really landing any difference makers. We haven't capitalized on any of last year's momentum...if you want to call it that.

And I never said I'd support Crean with a UK win. I said I'd lay off the criticism for awhile, which I did. But the failures in recruiting are deeply concerning for me.