On Newkirk are you basing it on an hour of practice that you saw because that is a little short sided.
Tremont Waters
- Thread starter Catfish_ Crazy
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Johnson's turnover percentage last season was 20.1% -- he turned the ball over 20% of the times that he touched the ball. The only other IU player having a higher TO% while playing more than 5 minutes per game was Juwan Morgan at 21.7%.
Out of high school?
Hulls
Dee Brown
Drew Neitzel
Trey Burke
Bryant McIntosh
Tim Frazier
E'Twaun Moore
That's just top of my head....
SEASON TEAM MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
2014-15 PITT 20.8 2.2-5.9 .377 0.6-2.1 .301 0.8-1.2 .667 1.3 2.7 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.4 5.9
2013-14 PITT 17.0 1.7-3.7 .463 0.6-1.5 .434 0.5-1.1 .447 1.2 1.7 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.8 4.6
Shot 30% from 3, 67% from the line, has less than 2 for TO/AST ratio....and he lost his starting position.
What do you see that makes him better than a back up?
Seems a little short sided.....
So a player can not improve and what he did in the past always indicates the future.
Past performance has no indication of future results?
I'll remember that next time I discuss the "direction of the program" lol
But past performance is usually a pretty good indicator of future results, don't you think? Not the only indicator, but a pretty reliable one, right? And, if you ignore past performance, as you're suggesting we do, aren't you just hoping he'll be better?
While I'll agree that PERHAPS Newkirk will be better (Crean's past history not withstanding), to think he'll be significantly better after what we saw Saturday is not realistic. He might make liars out of us, but until that happens I'm not sold on him - or any current IU guard - to have enough ball handling skills to be a competent PG in the offense Crean likes to run.
So what a player shows as a freshmen will be what he is like as a junior and senior that is just plain ridiculous.
I was using his sophomore stats...which were actually worse than his Freshman stats.
Look, I think he will be a solid and will help being a upper classman.
But I have my doubts that he will put up significantly better numbers as a junior at IU than his sophomore season at PITT.
And his numbers at PITT were very average.....and you have yet to answer my question...what do YOU expect from him?
That's double of his best at PITT.
For comparison, RJ averaged 8 pts, 3 assits, and 3 rebounds at game last year. So, Newkirk would be better than RJ last year....
If that happnes, IU is definitely a final four threat.....
BS
RJ got hurt first in the Iowa game - 2/3 way thru the season. His turnover rate didn't go south because of injury. He was just poor with the ball - despite not being a primary ball handler.
I believe RJ will have a very good season. I also believe, in the college game, that players can improve dramatically. Look at Denzel Valentine's stats his freshman and sophomore years which were bad and see what happened to him.
Johnson is my surprise All-Conf player this year.
Johnson is my surprise All-Conf player this year.
Ok... Let's look at this from a points per possession perspective. So out of 10 possessions where Johnson is handling the ball, 2 will be turnovers, so 0 on those. 4 are assists which means the team will have scored between 8 and 12 points. Let's say 1 of those is a 3 on average (a pretty conservative estimate), so 9 points out of those 6 possesions. If Robert Johnson scores just one basket on the remaining 4 possessions, that brings the total to 11 points on 10 possessions. So estimating very conservatively, the team averages 1.1 points per possession while RoJo is handling the ball. That is extremely efficient offense. So repeating that 20% TO rate ad infinitum as this board is prone to do is nonsense, like I said.
I would bet that Georgetown is promising starting right away where he will have to fight to be a starter at IU.
Why is that funny because we will have RJ, Newkirk, Jones and Green all at the guard position and I would bet the GT does not have that log jam at the guard position.
I don't think so. To me, that's just an excuse. This is something I expect to hear from Purdue fans on why they missed out on recruits, not us. Admit when you're beat and/or the kid just picked a different school he thought was a better fit. There are plenty of examples (recent) that show good players going to top schools and not starting right away. Waters isn't a one and done kid. Has to know he'll be fighting for time anywhere.
I remember him playing the point regularly. I agree I would like to get Waters.
Why do you think kids pick schools because early playing time is one of the big factors he picking a school. It is not an excuse but a reason for things to happen.
Sorry. It may happen sometimes, but I'm not saying this is a reason for Tremont to choose Georgetown. It is an excuse. It seems like a way to soften the blow of losing out on a recruit. Who cares why the kid didn't/won't pick IU. Just admit he didn't and move on. No need for excuses.
Why else who a kid pick GT over IU because it is not the campus or the arena you play in since GT plays in a NBA arena off campus. I also think the playing style would be an advantage for IU and I don't see GT having a better coach who develops many players for the NBA. Also I would think playing in the big ten would be an advantage over playing in the Big East.
Their is a ton of reasons kids pick schools or in our case don't pick a school. Something isn't right in our recruiting right now.
I'm not a Creaniac by any stretch of the imagination and I don't care if we get Waters or not. I'm sure he's a great player, but I could go awhile without another diminutive point guard. I don't think that he's even that close to 5'11. He reminded me more of Mugsy Bogues than Jason Gardner watching his mixtape.
I know that small guys can be fantastic players. One of my first favorite players was Monte Towe and I think he was about 5'6. Crean's teams just don't play strong enough team defense to have a tiny player on the floor. It's probably just me though, as I was mostly disappointed in Yogi's career.
I know that small guys can be fantastic players. One of my first favorite players was Monte Towe and I think he was about 5'6. Crean's teams just don't play strong enough team defense to have a tiny player on the floor. It's probably just me though, as I was mostly disappointed in Yogi's career.
I believe there needs to be someone on the court that can lead the offense and someone that can penetrate into the lane. They don't have to be the same player.
I see Morgan as a Jeff Newton type player that can be a great complimentary player to someone like Bryant the way Newton was to Jeffries. I always felt Newton didn't get the credit he deserved in 2002. OG has so much potential and it was clear from the practice that he is aggressive and going to be on the floor a lot this year. I've seen him ranked #15 in the NBA draft and on other watch lists for post season awards. He did this playing limited minutes last year.
Different position.
Because a pg who turns it over 1 OF 5 possessions is a huge weakness to overcome. It needs to be under 15 percent. Lower is much better. Assists are severely overrated. They are a zero value arbitrary stat rewarded by scorekeepers. Stylistic and made for fans. Also having that high of a to and very low fta shows he's ineffective as a lead ball handler. He could of course improve and most likely will but his history warrants concern.
We've been over this. There is a measurable correlation between assists and winning. It's not "just for fans." The last time you said this, I provided you with a peer-reviewed academic study saying as much yet you still deny it. Passing ability is a very important part of the game.
I agree. Morgan has the ability to become a nice compliment to the other bigs and a 4 year role player. That's a great thing for the program, but it doesn't make him one of the best sophomores in college basketball which is what I was replying to.
I also agree on OG. He has big upside this year and going forward. I hope I'm wrong but I think some people are putting too great of expectations on him for this coming year. At the end of last year he was still very unpolished and had a lot of things to work on. No doubt he'll be better, but all conference as some are predicting? I don't see it...this year. Obviously I hope I'm wrong on the timeline of his development. Improving to a guy who can create on his own and average something like 10 and 5 would be a great improvement IMO.
The top 10 teams don't miss where they are landing zero top 100 recruits. I don't see U.K., UNC, Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, etc..missing on all their top recruits.
We have a top 100 player in Smith. We might get Wilkes. UK, Duke, KU and UNC are in a different league recruiting. Not many teams keep pace with them recruiting year after year.
I pretty sure I read somewhere that UNC has gotten two commitments from players under 150
Blue teams win more than red teams. This is proven. So does it mean that if a red team changes uniform colors that they'll win more? And again, an assisted basket is worth how much more than an unassisted?
Until you can prove without doubt, which you can't, that an assisted basket is worth more, it's not, then your argument is just fan driven silliness and you have no understanding of basketball analytics or how they are used. Maybe read Oliver's book so your position is not one born of ignorance? Or not ..
It's a stylistic stat made for ignorant fans that has no real mathematical value. An assisted basket = 2 or 3 points. An unassisted basket = 2 or 3 points. There's no difference.
It's the reason every basketball analyst gauges assist percentage as a stylistic stat and a by product of team philosophy and not individual competency. Your example of assist ratio is not how they are formulated.
They don't care how many assists a player has. Because it doesn't matter. The better metric is how many assists a team has and more importantly where they are coming from. This shows their stylistic tendencies. They don't do this just to make you look ignorant. There's good reasoning for it.
Yes passing matters, because bad passes result in TO's. Yes winning teams probably have more assists because they make more baskets and less TO's. But what you posted means nothing. Now if you would have used an SOS weighted pace neutral assist ratio vs SOS weighted winning percentage it might mean something but you didn't. Because you don't understand analytics.
Regardless, his assist ratio is fine. The problem is his TO percentage which is a far better gauge of PG proficiency and winning and RJ's has been too high to not question. Look at Bronson Koening, is he an effective PG? His assist ratio is low. His TO ratio is exceptional.
and fwiw I will take Oliver's, Hollinger's, Pomeroy's and every NBA coach currently coaching and what they say about assists over your ideas. Maybe if you wrote a book on analytics or created a site that almost every teams uses I might take you seriously. But, until you do, I'll just view you as someone that doesn't understand which stats are valid.
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My apologies if Johnson's 20.1% TO rate had already been posted. Nevertheless, the number shows that Johnson was one of the most TO prone on the team last season, and my reply was within the context of your post.
Shifting gears to your new target, Johnson's numbers don't indicate that he was getting 4 assists every 10 possessions. IU had 16 assists per 70 possessions last season. Rob's assist percentage was 20.5%, or 3.3 of those 16 team assists. His usage rate was 16.9% per 70 team possessions, or 11.9 individual possessions. 3.3/11.9 = 27.6% of his possessions ending with an assist. It's not a trivial task to then figure out how to split the remaining (10-(2.01+2.76)) 5.2 possessions into shots and passes.
For a meaningful measurement of individual player impact on offense, I think the appropriate metric is offensive rating (ORtg%). Here are actual offensive ratings from last season for IU regulars, ranked best to worst.
Zeisloft - 129.7
Bryant - 129.0
Ferrell - 125.6
Morgan - 120.5
Blackmon - 120.2
Bielfeldt - 117.8
Hartman - 115.9
Anunoby - 115.8
Johnson - 115.0
Williams - 109.7
Now you might observe Williams' low ORtg% and refute that this metric is a valid measure because anecdotally Williams was important to the offense last year. I would temper that notion with the fact that Williams' usage rating last season was a whopping 26.2% -- highest on the team, excluding JBJr. The sheer volume of Williams' touches gave him more chances to impact the offense.
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