The Serious Election Day Thread

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

As per usual, we will dedicate one thread for dispassionate election night analysis, without political disagreement or policy debate. Didn't try to change minds in this thread, just discuss what's happening.

I'll start where we always start: which early results are you looking at to give you an idea the direction things might be going?

 

[Cortez88]

Gotta be NC and GA right? GA precounts mail and early votes.

 

[IUclover]

Hamilton County in Indiana was on the radar for the 538 podcast.. not for Indiana of course but an indicator for other states/areas.

 

[UncleMark]

Beat me to it.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

As per usual, we will dedicate one thread for dispassionate election night analysis, without political disagreement or policy debate. Didn't try to change minds in this thread, just discuss what's happening.

I'll start where we always start: which early results are you looking at to give you an idea the direction things might be going?

Hamilton County. Biden did far better there than Clinton and mirrored results around the nation, suburbs did much better for Ds. In purple states, they went blue. If Harris equals Biden in Hamilton, it may be a sign she will do well in suburbs/exburbs nationwide. She needs to at least equal Biden.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Hamilton County in Indiana was on the radar for the 538 podcast.. not for Indiana of course but an indicator for other states/areas.

Wow, I hadn't even seen that. I'd rather use my lucky guess on lottery numbers...

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

This area of Ohio isn’t so enthusiastic for Trump this time around. My wife reports the yard sign count after her walks and Harris signs outnumber Trump signs every time and she has several different routes of about two miles. That’s what I see when I’m out too. That’s completely opposite 2020. He’ll still win Ohio, but lower enthusiasm may be a bad sign for Trump if that’s the case across the country.

 

[UncleMark]

Gotta be NC and GA right? GA precounts mail and early votes.

Agreed. Snag either of those and Harris is in great shape. Big Trump wins in those will be bad news.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Less mail. Different rules. Faster machines. Might get an answer sooner

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

Agreed. Snag either of those and Harris is in great shape. Big Trump wins in those will be bad news.

If Harris wins both its probably game over for Trump. Even winning GA is a very good sign for Harris.

 

[twenty02]

NH and VA both close early. The margins there will start to give a feel

 

[Digressions]

This area of Ohio isn’t so enthusiastic for Trump this time around. My wife reports the yard sign count after her walks and Harris signs outnumber Trump signs every time and she has several different routes of about two miles. That’s what I see when I’m out too. That’s completely opposite 2020. He’ll still win Ohio, but lower enthusiasm may be a bad sign for Trump if that’s the case across the country.

On that note, any predictions on voter turnout? Trump got 63m in '16 and 74m in '20. 60% vs 66% nationwide respectively.

 

[OpenWheels]

For now until returns posted I'm just watching the betting markets. Trump up from -160 to -180 on Bet365 in the last 30 minutes.

I tried using 538 on reddit, but it's so dominated by one side who are saying Pennsylvania turnout is huge for Dems in the purple counties, meaning swing counties going Harris' way. That may be very true, but there's no way to trust the source.

There used to be a great mostly text only election site with county by county votes reported. I can't find it now. Used to be my favorite to see early returns of key counties and know what the end would be. I'll watch this thread I guess.
,

 

[Harry Hondo]

Hamilton County in Indiana was on the radar for the 538 podcast.. not for Indiana of course but an indicator for other states/areas.

Saw news piece the other day on Door county in Wisconsin. They have gone with the winner of the last 6 presidential elections and it's definitely a gauge to how Wisconsin will go. In the piece they tried to find one person who actually voted for the winner of the last 6 elections, but couldn't find one.

 

[Hank Reardon]

If Harris wins both its probably game over for Trump. Even winning GA is a very good sign for Harris.

Yeah, if Harris wins Georgia I'd say that's a pretty good sign she's going to win comfortably. This might be all but over early.

 

[mrhighlife]

Gotta be NC and GA right? GA precounts mail and early votes.

But they can't announce anything until the polls close? Or is there a set time they can start reporting results?

 

[snarlcakes]

I would love to participate in this thread, but I am a child and not capable of remaining serious or not talking shit. Cheers.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I'm would love to participate in this thread, but I am a child and not capable of remaining serious or not talking shit. Cheers.

I’ve had to pull back two attacks already

 

[Cortez88]

But they can't announce anything until the polls close? Or is there a set time they can start reporting results?

I believe they still have to wait until polls close, but numbers start pouring out quickly. Whereas PA law requires mail in and early vote be counted last which draws out the process.

 

[UncleMark]

This morning a coworker asked me how I voted. This guy is a 60something openly racist homophobic redneck shitkicker. I told him Harris, expecting some pushback. Instead he said "Good man. That Trump is fvcking crazy."

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

Beat me to it.

TWSS

 

[UncleMark]

I believe they still have to wait until polls close, but numbers start pouring out quickly. Whereas PA law requires mail in and early vote be counted last which draws out the process.

Indiana polls close at 6:00 7:00 Look for the call around 6:05 7:05.

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

Sounds like turnout has been massive, especially in GA and PA. It might be a route. rout?

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

They are quoting 40-45 minutes at my polling place. This is a first ever experience for me.

 

[Cortez88]

I’m also interested in the demographic numbers. Seeing pictures of long lines of younger people voting, but that is a group that doesn’t usually vote.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I've been keeping up with the Florida returns, since they publish ballots cast by partisan registration in real time.

No surprise that Trump seems well-positioned to win there. But, depending on how the NPA ballots come out, it looks like he could get a double-digit margin. He only won it by 3.5% in 2020, so that would be quite a jump up if that's how it plays out.

As of now, they've counted 10,101,177 ballots (includes early and Election Day). Here's how the ballots work out by party ID:

Rep - 4,375,106 (43.31%)
Dem - 3,217,511 (31.85%)
NPA - 2,251,705 (22.29%)

The NPA estimate they have is about 56R-44D. So they're forecasting a 10.82% Trump advantage for the state.

Not a surprising outcome, but it would be a few ticks higher than the 8% lead Trump has in the RCP average. Notably, it's also about 9% behind DeSantis' margin of victory in 2022.

 

[Cortez88]

I've been keeping up with the Florida returns, since they publish ballots cast by partisan registration in real time.

No surprise that Trump seems well-positioned to win there. But, depending on how the NPA ballots come out, it looks like he could get a double-digit margin. He only won it by 3.5% in 2020, so that would be quite a jump up if that's how it plays out.

As of now, they've counted 10,101,177 ballots (includes early and Election Day). Here's how the ballots work out by party ID:

Rep - 4,375,106 (43.31%)
Dem - 3,217,511 (31.85%)
NPA - 2,251,705 (22.29%)

The NPA estimate they have is about 56R-44D. So they're forecasting a 10.82% Trump advantage for the state.

Not a surprising outcome, but it would be a few ticks higher than the 8% lead Trump has in the RCP average. Notably, it's also about 9% behind DeSantis' margin of victory in 2022.

Yeah, not surprising really. FL is turning into the Rs CA. I don’t think the Ds put resources into the state this round. It’s a deep red state now and I don’t think that is changing anytime soon.

 

[mrhighlife]

I live in as about as rural area as one could here in NWI. Heavy heavy Trump area in 2016 and 2020. Long lines to vote in both 2016 and 2020. Trump signs all over my neighborhood those years. This year?.. I waited about 30 seconds (not minutes. SECONDS) for a booth to open. Zero Trump signs in my neighborhood and 2 Harris signs. Not sure it means anything but maybe?

 

[OpenWheels]

Back in the 70s my area was hugely Democrat. Rural, lot of small farmers. Changed away from Dems over the decades since. Farms mostly gone now, lot more houses, no big complexes though. Still rural. I see a bunch of Trump signs. Far fewer Harris. Seems about the same as the Biden Trump election. Although a relative who moved from Philly is so used to that liberal area she's afraid to put out her Harris signs so she gave them to somebody who now has double. Might be a few more Harris/Democrat signs than four years ago.

 

[UncleMark]

They are quoting 40-45 minutes at my polling place. This is a first ever experience for me.

MSNBC live in Philly near the Temple campus. Two hour wait.

 

[BCCHoosier]

I live in as about as rural area as one could here in NWI. Heavy heavy Trump area in 2016 and 2020. Long lines to vote in both 2016 and 2020. Trump signs all over my neighborhood those years. This year?.. I waited about 30 seconds (not minutes. SECONDS) for a booth to open. Zero Trump signs in my neighborhood and 2 Harris signs. Not sure it means anything but maybe?

I think in states where it is a forgone conclusion it is less important. I live in rural Illinois in heavy Trump country. Really hard to read anything into turnout. Every down ballot was a Republican and Kamala will obviously win the state for President.

Other than one school board procedural item, there was no tangible reason to vote.

 

[UncleMark]

Other than one school board procedural item, there was no tangible reason to vote.

I did my civic duty, but it will make no difference. Pubs will win all the national races and all the state races, and all the local races are Dem unopposed. All the at-large races only had enough candidates for the openings, so no one loses. I scratched on all those, just on principle. I did vote to boot all the judges, again just on principle.

 

[BradStevens]

I would love to participate in this thread, but I am a child and not capable of remaining serious or not talking shit. Cheers.

This is going to be the most boring thread on the board for a while. See you guys in the Octagon.

 

[mcmurtry66]

just saw an interview of a senior in high school, girl, say she voted for harris. well it was my first time and all my friends were voting so i wanted to vote. jaded but fcking hell thse 18 year olds don't have a clue. it's too young. i wouldn't mind seeing voting age be 25 to be honest

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

just saw an interview of a senior in high school, girl, say she voted for harris. well it was my first time and all my friends were voting so i wanted to vote. jaded but fcking hell thse 18 year olds don't have a clue. it's too young. i wouldn't mind seeing voting age be 25 to be honest

It be willing to raise it to 25, as long as we also set a max voting age of 64. That gives everyone 40 years to influence the direction of the country before you sit back and just ride it out.

 

[mcmurtry66]

It be willing to raise it to 25, as long as we also set a max voting age of 64. That gives everyone 40 years to influence the direction of the country before you sit back and just ride it out.

I like it

 

[Hank Reardon]

It be willing to raise it to 25, as long as we also set a max voting age of 64. That gives everyone 40 years to influence the direction of the country before you sit back and just ride it out.

The only downside to that is you'd have to leave the country if you were over 65 as anyone under that would support picking every last scrap from your bones. Politicians would gladly bleed you dry and toss the carcass to the "voting" ages. You'd just be a wallet to be raided.

 

[IUINSB]

Indiana polls close at 6:00. Look for the call around 6:05.

That long?

 

[mcmurtry66]

damnnnnnnn early exit polls. 43 percent dissatsified with the way things are going in the us and 29 percent angry! Holy Shit!!! 7 enthusiastic and 19 satisfied. wow.

 

[IUINSB]

It be willing to raise it to 25, as long as we also set a max voting age of 64. That gives everyone 40 years to influence the direction of the country before you sit back and just ride it out.

**** that! My SS would be gone in seconds. God damn Whippersnapper.
What say you, Uncle Mark?