Russia-Ukraine war has begun

[IUCrazy2]

I don't think Ukraine can take back what they lost. Ukraine has the Napoleon and Hitler problem, there are a many more Russians than Ukrainians. Defense produces better kill ratios, along with some well timed counter strikes.

I am not sure Putin cares about losses, and so far we see no evidence the Russian people do. If no one cares if they lose 500,000 more, why would he stop.

Even with our aid I am not sure Ukraine can hold out. Without aid, it will be faster and much less of Russia's military destroyed.

Russia cracked the guerilla warfare nut in Chechnya. I am not sure we won't see massive Ukrainian deaths when it falls. Numbers to rival WW2 conquests.

I don't think they can take and hold the whole country. However, if you say that even with our aid they are doomed, then I would consider that a black hole of money and material. I wouldn't drop anything more on them if it is hopeless either way. The Russians have already been bled at this point, they pose no real conventional threat to NATO. If it is hopeless for Ukraine to win, you are sacrificing them for next to nothing now. The equipment we are sending them is far more advanced than the Russian junk it is being used to blow up and that isn't even discussing the people being fed to the grinder.

I think they have a chance to hold the lines where they are if they remain on defense. I don't think they can mount an effective enough offense to change the current front lines much. So I think there is still value in making them a tough nut to crack. If they are doomed, it is kind of sadistic to ask them to keep killing themselves to blow up Russian junk that really poses no threat to NATO.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I don't think they can take and hold the whole country. However, if you say that even with our aid they are doomed, then I would consider that a black hole of money and material. I wouldn't drop anything more on them if it is hopeless either way. The Russians have already been bled at this point, they pose no real conventional threat to NATO. If it is hopeless for Ukraine to win, you are sacrificing them for next to nothing now. The equipment we are sending them is far more advanced than the Russian junk it is being used to blow up and that isn't even discussing the people being fed to the grinder.

I think they have a chance to hold the lines where they are if they remain on defense. I don't think they can mount an effective enough offense to change the current front lines much. So I think there is still value in making them a tough nut to crack. If they are doomed, it is kind of sadistic to ask them to keep killing themselves to blow up Russian junk that really poses no threat to NATO.

Doomed, if Russia truly cares not what the cost is. If they do, then they aren't.

If America were attacked and looked like had no chance of winning, I don't think that would stop a whole lot of Americans. It didn't stop Britain after Dunkirk. It didn't stop us in the Revolution.

If Russia wants Ukraine, make it clear we will supply them as long as they want. Let Putin use that in his cost/benefit analysis. If Ukraine has decided it has bled enough, they can surrender. It should be up to them when that point comes.

 

[manichi]

I don't think they can take and hold the whole country. However, if you say that even with our aid they are doomed, then I would consider that a black hole of money and material. I wouldn't drop anything more on them if it is hopeless either way. The Russians have already been bled at this point, they pose no real conventional threat to NATO. If it is hopeless for Ukraine to win, you are sacrificing them for next to nothing now. The equipment we are sending them is far more advanced than the Russian junk it is being used to blow up and that isn't even discussing the people being fed to the grinder.

I think they have a chance to hold the lines where they are if they remain on defense. I don't think they can mount an effective enough offense to change the current front lines much. So I think there is still value in making them a tough nut to crack. If they are doomed, it is kind of sadistic to ask them to keep killing themselves to blow up Russian junk that really poses no threat to NATO.

I don't think we have to ask them to keep fighting. they are fighting just to have any say at all in how their country will look and be governed after this. sadly, Ukraine is fighting for what amounts to be line items in an inevitable agreement that will ultimately favor Russia. Cynically, it's still a great deal for us. we're spending pennies compared to Russia and their whole war machine is engaged, sapping resources and people. we should be right there supporting them for as long as they can hold out. Their noble cause is our discounted way to eff with Russia. win-win.

Russia does pose a real conventional threat to NATO. they keep regaining ground in Eastern Europe, something NATO was organized to prevent. our sanctions aren't as crippling as we'd like and they still have plenty of close, capable partners in the world. they still have a big population and plenty of oil to sell. and who is to say a more Ukraine-passive party doesn't win in our next elections? no reason to think they couldn't rebuild to pre-war abilities within 3 to 5 years and that's proven to be enough to chip away the west-leaning countries that border them.

russia is the kind of country that may lose 80% of the battles but still ends up winning a war. keeps happening.

 

[manichi]

Doomed, if Russia truly cares not what the cost is. If they do, then they aren't.

If America were attacked and looked like had no chance of winning, I don't think that would stop a whole lot of Americans. It didn't stop Britain after Dunkirk. It didn't stop us in the Revolution.

If Russia wants Ukraine, make it clear we will supply them as long as they want. Let Putin use that in his cost/benefit analysis. If Ukraine has decided it has bled enough, they can surrender. It should be up to them when that point comes.

hmmm - will be interesting to see how this plays out after our elections. A wild guess but I could see them stopping the war if Biden is re-elected, cutting their losses, being happy to have pushed Ukraine so far away from the West but continuing the war if Trump is elected, knowing even better terms may be in reach.

 

[Spartans9312]

Doomed, if Russia truly cares not what the cost is. If they do, then they aren't.

If America were attacked and looked like had no chance of winning, I don't think that would stop a whole lot of Americans. It didn't stop Britain after Dunkirk. It didn't stop us in the Revolution.

If Russia wants Ukraine, make it clear we will supply them as long as they want. Let Putin use that in his cost/benefit analysis. If Ukraine has decided it has bled enough, they can surrender. It should be up to them when that point comes.

Russia’s objective is to take the whole of historic Donbas before Putin’s “election” in March.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Russia’s objective is to take the whole of historic Donbas before Putin’s “election” in March.

I don't know that is their total objective. Recall the opening of the war, they seized the airport in the Kyiv suburbs. A strange move if Donbas was their only objective. It could have been a feint, but I don't know that Russia expected a serious defense by Ukraine. If they thought it would be a cakewalk, why risk an elite unit on a feint?

 

[Spartans9312]

I don't know that is their total objective. Recall the opening of the war, they seized the airport in the Kyiv suburbs. A strange move if Donbas was their only objective. It could have been a feint, but I don't know that Russia expected a serious defense by Ukraine. If they thought it would be a cakewalk, why risk an elite unit on a feint?

I was speaking in the now…

They will continue to attack all along the line of contact from Kupiansk-Kreminna in the north to Avdiivka in the south

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I was speaking in the now…

They will continue to attack all along the line of contact from Kupiansk-Kreminna in the north to Avdiivka in the south

Yes, I agree that is their short term goal. I am not sure they would be satisfied with that as the end, or they would have it out before the world as their peace settlement.

When we talk about the areas Russia has taken, they are the most mineral rich in Europe. Iron, lithium, coal. Those who want Ukraine to sign whatever deal Putin offers, if he ever does, Ukraine would have reasons not to want to give up their resources. We have reasons not to teach dictators they can take whatever they want.

Though if a dictator wants to seize Texas, maybe we should sign a treaty immediately accepting it? With the pluck we are showing in Ukraine, I am not sure we wouldn't.

 

[Spartans9312]

Yes, I agree that is their short term goal. I am not sure they would be satisfied with that as the end, or they would have it out before the world as their peace settlement.

When we talk about the areas Russia has taken, they are the most mineral rich in Europe. Iron, lithium, coal. Those who want Ukraine to sign whatever deal Putin offers, if he ever does, Ukraine would have reasons not to want to give up their resources. We have reasons not to teach dictators they can take whatever they want.

Though if a dictator wants to seize Texas, maybe we should sign a treaty immediately accepting it? With the pluck we are showing in Ukraine, I am not sure we wouldn't.

Were we asleep at the beginning (when Russia originally invaded Crimea and Donetsk, Luhansk?

I think right now, we need to be able to understand what they are doing. Predicting if you will.

The Ukrainians will not repeat the mistake of Bakhmut; they will yield ground to preserve men and equipment

 

[IUCrazy2]

I don't know that is their total objective. Recall the opening of the war, they seized the airport in the Kyiv suburbs. A strange move if Donbas was their only objective. It could have been a feint, but I don't know that Russia expected a serious defense by Ukraine. If they thought it would be a cakewalk, why risk an elite unit on a feint?

It was an attempt to position for a decapitation strike on the government. Get rid of Zelensky and replace him with a Ukrainian government more palatable to Russia and then declare victory that they had removed the "Western backed Nazis" from Ukraine.

I think they know they would have trouble taking and holding all of Ukraine. They are doing the typical Russia thing of grabbing buffers and putting puppets in place on their border to protect against the ever present "evil West" that wants to attack them. They think the next Napoleon and Hitler are always on the horizon.

 

[NewGuyToTheBoard]

Does anyone here oppose a negotiated settlement? But as I just asked, if Putin knows he can take all of Ukraine on Jan 20, 2025 at the latest, what incentive does he have to negotiate?

The idea that Trump is going to hand over Ukraine is a figment of your imagination.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

The idea that Trump is going to hand over Ukraine is a figment of your imagination.

Where has Trump ever said he supports funding? Find me a quote.

 

[NewGuyToTheBoard]

Where has Trump ever said he supports funding? Find me a quote.

Has he said that he doesn’t? He’s said he’s not willing to let Putin take Kyiv, that much is for sure.

So your belief is unfounded. Likely your preconceived notions of Trump caused you to overlook those statements and draw poor conclusions.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Has he said that he doesn’t? He’s said he’s not willing to let Putin take Kyiv, that much is for sure.

So your belief is unfounded. Likely your preconceived notions of Trump caused you to overlook those statements and draw poor conclusions.

Look at the Trump wing of the party. The "Freedom" caucus overwhelmingly opposes it. Do you think Trump's son disagrees with Trump.

Trumpworld takes aim at Republicans who supported Ukraine aid push

Senate Republicans who voted to advance aid for Ukraine last week are taking heavy incoming from allies of former President Trump, who are calling them out publicly and threatening primary challeng…

www.google.com

 

[NewGuyToTheBoard]

Look at the Trump wing of the party. The "Freedom" caucus overwhelmingly opposes it. Do you think Trump's son disagrees with Trump.

Trumpworld takes aim at Republicans who supported Ukraine aid push

Senate Republicans who voted to advance aid for Ukraine last week are taking heavy incoming from allies of former President Trump, who are calling them out publicly and threatening primary challeng…

www.google.com

Ultimately Trump decides what he wants to do, and the “Trump wing” falls in line.

My biggest reservation about a 2nd Trump term is that he actually allowed himself to be talked out of some very poor impulses at times.

Trump has a lot of good impulses but they need to be refined and checked when necessary.

I worry about an administration full
of sycophants, but I think I likely overestimate that potential problem. Trump would likely leverage the threat of increased funding and more advanced weaponry in order to get Putin to freeze the lines of control and create a buffer zone.

Something it appears Biden has been unwilling to do up until now.

 

[DANC]

Look at the Trump wing of the party. The "Freedom" caucus overwhelmingly opposes it. Do you think Trump's son disagrees with Trump.

Trumpworld takes aim at Republicans who supported Ukraine aid push

Senate Republicans who voted to advance aid for Ukraine last week are taking heavy incoming from allies of former President Trump, who are calling them out publicly and threatening primary challeng…

www.google.com

lmao Marvin, that's like saying the Squad is the Biden wing of the Democrat Party.

Democrats are constantly engaged in wild speculation of what Trump 'might' do when nothing in his past performance in the Presidency suggests it. He didn't cave to Russia then and he won't in the future.

Don Jr. is in the business of fund raising. He can say whatever he wants - he's not in a decision making capacity.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

Russian BMP greases one of their scooby doo vans, and then a 2nd one rubs it in, instead of going around. F troop couldn't make this up.

 

[DANC]

Russian BMP greases one of their scooby doo vans, and then a 2nd one rubs it in, instead of going around. F troop couldn't make this up.

View embedded media

That left a big grease spot!

Kudos on the F Troop reference. A vastly underrated show!

 

[Marvin the Martian]

lmao Marvin, that's like saying the Squad is the Biden wing of the Democrat Party.

Democrats are constantly engaged in wild speculation of what Trump 'might' do when nothing in his past performance in the Presidency suggests it. He didn't cave to Russia then and he won't in the future.

Don Jr. is in the business of fund raising. He can say whatever he wants - he's not in a decision making capacity.

Do you think Trump might blame Ukraine for Biden getting elected? He made the call, he wanted an investigation, he hinted about funding, and Ukraine did not do it. Seems to me if he wants retribution on those he feels did him wrong, Ukraine would be on that list.

 

[DANC]

Do you think Trump might blame Ukraine for Biden getting elected? He made the call, he wanted an investigation, he hinted about funding, and Ukraine did not do it. Seems to me if he wants retribution on those he feels did him wrong, Ukraine would be on that list.

Eh, I'm not seeing it, but that's treading toward politics, which isn't supposed to be discussed here.

 

[anon_mya1phvcpf5x4]

Ultimately Trump decides what he wants to do, and the “Trump wing” falls in line.

My biggest reservation about a 2nd Trump term is that he actually allowed himself to be talked out of some very poor impulses at times.

Trump has a lot of good impulses but they need to be refined and checked when necessary.

I worry about an administration full
of sycophants, but I think I likely overestimate that potential problem. Trump would likely leverage the threat of increased funding and more advanced weaponry in order to get Putin to freeze the lines of control and create a buffer zone.

Something it appears Biden has been unwilling to do up until now.

Biden has been trying to get more funding for Ukraine You can't blame him with a straight face when Republicans are the ones blocking it under orders from Trump.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Eh, I'm not seeing it, but that's treading toward politics, which isn't supposed to be discussed here.

Good point. I will just say that we know Ukraine is losing ground and troops right now because they are short of ammunition. A word from Trump supporting aid to Ukraine would go a long way to getting the votes for said aid. Since no word has come to gather support, at a minimum it isn't of major importance to him. Without artillery shells, Ukraine will be in far worse condition come January 20, 2025, even if he is inclined to help.

 

[DANC]

Good point. I will just say that we know Ukraine is losing ground and troops right now because they are short of ammunition. A word from Trump supporting aid to Ukraine would go a long way to getting the votes for said aid. Since no word has come to gather support, at a minimum it isn't of major importance to him. Without artillery shells, Ukraine will be in far worse condition come January 20, 2025, even if he is inclined to help.

Well, your attempt to blame Trump for Ukraine's demise is ludicrous, imo. Trump's military buildup of Ukrainian forces prior to Biden being elected is the only reason Ukraine is still in existence.

Trump has promised to end the war - he hasn't said how. He said the same thing about Afghanistan and we went 18 months without a US serviceman's death after Trump struck back when a prior agreement fell apart with the death of a US contractor. Biden screwed up the final withdrawal, but that's not on Trump.

If Trump came out now either way for Ukraine support, he would lose all negotiating leverage when he does become President. That's something anyone who doesn't understand Trump doesn't get - he knows it's not in the nation's interest to tip our hand in negotiations.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Well, your attempt to blame Trump for Ukraine's demise is ludicrous, imo. Trump's military buildup of Ukrainian forces prior to Biden being elected is the only reason Ukraine is still in existence.

Trump has promised to end the war - he hasn't said how. He said the same thing about Afghanistan and we went 18 months without a US serviceman's death after Trump struck back when a prior agreement fell apart with the death of a US contractor. Biden screwed up the final withdrawal, but that's not on Trump.

If Trump came out now either way for Ukraine support, he would lose all negotiating leverage when he does become President. That's something anyone who doesn't understand Trump doesn't get - he knows it's not in the nation's interest to tip our hand in negotiations.

Great, so Ukraine will not suffer irreversible setbacks in the meantime. You've been in the military, how successful would your units have been without ammo?

 

[DANC]

Great, so Ukraine will not suffer irreversible setbacks in the meantime. You've been in the military, how successful would your units have been without ammo?

Great, so Ukraine will not suffer irreversible setbacks in the meantime. You've been in the military, how successful would your units have been without ammo?

The Ukrainian military is not the US military.

Why do you discount what the rest of Europe is sending Ukraine. They're not being cut off, as is depicted. The Ukrainians are smart - they are going to blame any setbacks on lack of supplies in order to get more and more.

I'm 100% for continued aid to Ukraine, but I'm also 100% for our border control - both are in our national interests, but border control is more immediate. Get that fixed - act on HR2 - and Republicans will be glad to continue funding to Ukraine.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

Great, so Ukraine will not suffer irreversible setbacks in the meantime. You've been in the military, how successful would your units have been without ammo?

I saw that Euro is close to shipping 1 million arty shells to Ukraine. Sounded as it could be within days or at least in the very near future.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

The Ukrainian military is not the US military.

Why do you discount what the rest of Europe is sending Ukraine. They're not being cut off, as is depicted. The Ukrainians are smart - they are going to blame any setbacks on lack of supplies in order to get more and more.

I'm 100% for continued aid to Ukraine, but I'm also 100% for our border control - both are in our national interests, but border control is more immediate. Get that fixed - act on HR2 - and Republicans will be glad to continue funding to Ukraine.

Europe can provide some, Europe has a very small defense industrial base. Even with the US supplying all it can, Russia will have a big artillery advantage.

Too little, too late? Ukraine’s backers lose ground in the ammo race

Russia's advantage in artillery ammunitions is unlikely to spur more frontline gains, but it will give Moscow some breathing space, one analyst said.

www.defensenews.com

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/01/03/global_conflicts_expose_dire_us_munitions_shortage_1002444.html#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20military%20is,Russia%20with%20no%20foreseeable%20end.

So both Europe and the US is critically low on artillery. We need to produce more, a lot more. That takes money.

As to closing the border, why is HB2 the be all and end all? There has been a negotiated Senate deal and a negotiated House deal. Neither is allowed to see the light of day, it is HB2 or nothing. I don't think Democrats are any more likely to give all in to HB2 then the Republicans would be to give the Democrats everything they want on any other bill. There has to be a negotiation. There has been 2, and neither are allowed up for a vote.

 

[DANC]

Europe can provide some, Europe has a very small defense industrial base. Even with the US supplying all it can, Russia will have a big artillery advantage.

Too little, too late? Ukraine’s backers lose ground in the ammo race

Russia's advantage in artillery ammunitions is unlikely to spur more frontline gains, but it will give Moscow some breathing space, one analyst said.

www.defensenews.com

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/01/03/global_conflicts_expose_dire_us_munitions_shortage_1002444.html#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20military%20is,Russia%20with%20no%20foreseeable%20end.

So both Europe and the US is critically low on artillery. We need to produce more, a lot more. That takes money.

As to closing the border, why is HB2 the be all and end all? There has been a negotiated Senate deal and a negotiated House deal. Neither is allowed to see the light of day, it is HB2 or nothing. I don't think Democrats are any more likely to give all in to HB2 then the Republicans would be to give the Democrats everything they want on any other bill. There has to be a negotiation. There has been 2, and neither are allowed up for a vote.

HR2 is a bill that is just focused on the border. It's not tied to anything else. The Senate bill is tied in with other funding.

Deal with the border first, as even Democrats now say is needed, and the Ukrainian funding will be practically automatic.

One of the positive impacts of the Ukrainian war is that the US defense industry is ramping up to where it should. We have realized how woefully unprepared we are to restock our military in a major conflict.

 

[manichi]

Well, your attempt to blame Trump for Ukraine's demise is ludicrous, imo. Trump's military buildup of Ukrainian forces prior to Biden being elected is the only reason Ukraine is still in existence.

Trump has promised to end the war - he hasn't said how. He said the same thing about Afghanistan and we went 18 months without a US serviceman's death after Trump struck back when a prior agreement fell apart with the death of a US contractor. Biden screwed up the final withdrawal, but that's not on Trump.

If Trump came out now either way for Ukraine support, he would lose all negotiating leverage when he does become President. That's something anyone who doesn't understand Trump doesn't get - he knows it's not in the nation's interest to tip our hand in negotiations.

why do we keep doing this? Trump also made some crazy choices in Afghanistan, releasing prisoners who had killed and then would go on to kill more US service people. Frankly, both Trump and Biden were going to look bad as we exited. That's what retreat looks like.

the part about not tipping your hand in negotiations doesn't really apply to global conflicts, at least not to the PR aspect of it. considering the coordination and leadership necessary amongst many nations, clear support is a requirement. you set achievable goals, align partners, execute. it's not like buying property or negotiating branding contracts.

man, this thread avoided politics for so long, yet here we are. the other guy is the worst, my guy is Churchill. we get it. sheesh. it's one thing to speculate how the next president might react but your reply isn't that and ya know it...

 

[NewGuyToTheBoard]

why do we keep doing this? Trump also made some crazy choices in Afghanistan, releasing prisoners who had killed and then would go on to kill more US service people. Frankly, both Trump and Biden were going to look bad as we exited. That's what retreat looks like.

the part about not tipping your hand in negotiations doesn't really apply to global conflicts, at least not to the PR aspect of it. considering the coordination and leadership necessary amongst many nations, clear support is a requirement. you set achievable goals, align partners, execute. it's not like buying property or negotiating branding contracts.

man, this thread avoided politics for so long, yet here we are. the other guy is the worst, my guy is Churchill. we get it. sheesh. it's one thing to speculate how the next president might react but your reply isn't that and ya know it. lol

You don’t think the evacuation could have been done in a less poorly planned manner?

Hooey my friend.

 

[manichi]

You don’t think the evacuation could have been done in a less poorly planned manner?

Hooey my friend.

no, 20 years in and we still didn't have enough control to secure a clean exit. that is what happens when you don't win and then leave. did Biden eff up? sure, but those situations are rife with eff ups. them the facts. same would have been said for trump, who only effed up in the lead up to the exit...

 

[NewGuyToTheBoard]

no, 20 years in and we still didn't have enough control to secure a clean exit. that is what happens when you don't win and then leave. did Biden eff up? sure, but those situations are rife with eff ups. them the facts. same would have been said for trump, who only effed up in the lead up to the exit...

What about a slower draw down out of Bagram where you don’t pull the rug out in the Afghani military until the very end?

Seems simple enough.

 

[manichi]

What about a slower draw down out of Bagram where you don’t pull the rug out in the Afghani military until the very end?

Seems simple enough.

probably agree. doesn't mean the other guy would have done better. in the run up to our exit, he actually proved he could do some fatally dumb stuff too. again, broader point: getting your people and gear out of a country you don't control is a shit show. always.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Manichi is right about one thing: this isn't the thread for this. Starting another Afghanistan thread to argue about who is to blame for what over there.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

Whoa.... Breaking news...

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Whoa.... Breaking news...

View embedded media

They are not going to stop attacking that thing.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

They are not going to stop attacking that thing.

Fingers crossed that you are correct. It'll take some really large well placed explosives to do much damage that can't be repaired quickly. But it needs to come down.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Fingers crossed that you are correct. It'll take some really large well placed explosives to do much damage that can't be repaired quickly. But it needs to come down.

Taking it down is a big ask. But putting it temporarily out of commission regularly is a great repeatable symbolic achievement.

 

[DANC]

Whoa.... Breaking news...

View embedded media

Putin will throw another fit

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

Putin will throw another fit

ummmm Think he'll threaten Nukes or..............? What's his other option?