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Russia-Ukraine war has begun

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These numbers are astounding…

Russian opposition outlet Proekt reported on February 22 that the Russian government has subjected at least 116,000 Russians to criminal and administrative charges since the start of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fourth term in office in 2018.[26] Proekt reported that Russian authorities pursued criminal charges against 11,442 people for politically motivated charges, including extremism, justifying terrorism, discrediting the Russian military, and spreading “fake” information about Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2018-2023.[27] Proekt noted that Russian authorities brought administrative charges against an additional 105,000 people for charges related to speech, conscience, and assembly, including at protests.[28] Proekt reported that Russian authorities initiated 5,829 cases for crimes against the state in this time period, including espionage, disclosure of state secrets, cooperation with foreign organizations, and for refusing to participate in the war in Ukraine.[29] Proekt’s partner organization Agenstvo Novosti noted that Russian authorities have tried 329 people for disclosing state secrets since 2018, more than the Soviet Union did during the entirety of the Cold War.[30] Proekt reported that Russian authorities have tried over 13,000 people under criminal statues introduced due to the war in Ukraine, including spreading fake information and discrediting the Russian military, including roughly 4,500 military personnel punished for new articles related to conduct in the military or on the battlefield.[31] Proekt reported that Russian authorities have pursued over 600,000 cases for insubordination against, insulting, and violence against Russian government officials and over 159,000 cases for violating pandemic restrictions in this timeframe.[32] While it is likely that some and even many of these cases are legitimate, the Kremlin has increasingly weaponized the Russian criminal justice system to crack down on domestic dissent against the war and Putin’s autocratic rule to consolidate control over domestic Russian society.[33] Proekt noted that the number of political repression-related cases initiated has sharply increased since 2022 and that many of the cases are dubious, either due to officials’ obfuscation of the criminal case itself or because they are prosecutions of a fake or overblown crime to cover up another misdeed.[34]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-22-2024
 
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TomEric4756 said:
These numbers are astounding…

Russian opposition outlet Proekt reported on February 22 that the Russian government has subjected at least 116,000 Russians to criminal and administrative charges since the start of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fourth term in office in 2018.[26] Proekt reported that Russian authorities pursued criminal charges against 11,442 people for politically motivated charges, including extremism, justifying terrorism, discrediting the Russian military, and spreading “fake” information about Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2018-2023.[27] Proekt noted that Russian authorities brought administrative charges against an additional 105,000 people for charges related to speech, conscience, and assembly, including at protests.[28] Proekt reported that Russian authorities initiated 5,829 cases for crimes against the state in this time period, including espionage, disclosure of state secrets, cooperation with foreign organizations, and for refusing to participate in the war in Ukraine.[29] Proekt’s partner organization Agenstvo Novosti noted that Russian authorities have tried 329 people for disclosing state secrets since 2018, more than the Soviet Union did during the entirety of the Cold War.[30] Proekt reported that Russian authorities have tried over 13,000 people under criminal statues introduced due to the war in Ukraine, including spreading fake information and discrediting the Russian military, including roughly 4,500 military personnel punished for new articles related to conduct in the military or on the battlefield.[31] Proekt reported that Russian authorities have pursued over 600,000 cases for insubordination against, insulting, and violence against Russian government officials and over 159,000 cases for violating pandemic restrictions in this timeframe.[32] While it is likely that some and even many of these cases are legitimate, the Kremlin has increasingly weaponized the Russian criminal justice system to crack down on domestic dissent against the war and Putin’s autocratic rule to consolidate control over domestic Russian society.[33] Proekt noted that the number of political repression-related cases initiated has sharply increased since 2022 and that many of the cases are dubious, either due to officials’ obfuscation of the criminal case itself or because they are prosecutions of a fake or overblown crime to cover up another misdeed.[34]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-22-2024
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Having 1,000+ die per day in their SMO in Ukraine, and continually kicking the dog at home, as your info suggest. I have to think that the day Russia starts to melt down from within gets closer everyday. I suspect this foretells that the implosion will be quite spectacular and I'm ok with that.
 
I found this interesting. I keep seeing these fundraisers for trucks. Having the electronic warfare pods included are a real bonus.

 
JamieDimonsBalls said:
What a thread…

Ready the replies from the author.

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There were things over the weekend indicating the Ukrainians are running out of soldiers as well. The Ukrainians are strategically withdrawing (at best) at the moment and the Russians have these stories. Seems like this is just WW1 level warfare where neither has much ability to drastically change the front lines and they are just throwing people into the grinder.
 
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IUCrazy2 said:
There were things over the weekend indicating the Ukrainians are running out of soldiers as well. The Ukrainians are strategically withdrawing (at best) at the moment and the Russians have these stories. Seems like this is just WW1 level warfare where neither has much ability to drastically change the front lines and they are just throwing people into the grinder.
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I think the Russians broke through and nearly encircled a large group, which prompted the withdrawal and retreat. It's quite a stalemate of sorts, but I'm sure the Ukranians, which were already outnumbered, are struggling.
 
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mohoosier said:
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Ugh. The index fund conspiracy. “Black Rock” isn’t coordinating some mass conspiracy to sell off Ukraine, through its “puppet” companies like Boeing, et al, through manipulating Russia and the U.S. to go to war. This isn’t a Bond movie.

Boeing has a larger market cap than Black Rock, by the way. Add in all those other companies RFK Jr mentions and it’s simply preposterous. He is either ignorant of how fund managers work or intentionally lying.
 
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IUCrazy2 said:
There were things over the weekend indicating the Ukrainians are running out of soldiers as well. The Ukrainians are strategically withdrawing (at best) at the moment and the Russians have these stories. Seems like this is just WW1 level warfare where neither has much ability to drastically change the front lines and they are just throwing people into the grinder.
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Or the Ukes could be playing rope-a-dope. Giving up some land in exchange so the Russians will continue to be ground up and then strike back when F16s and longer-range artillery come online.

Or they may have shipments of arms coming from other NATO countries that aren't being reported. I find it hard to believe the delivery of arms has just stopped since the US isn't providing their past support. European countries are still pledged to provide arms.

The farther away the Russians are from their main line of defense means their supply lines can be hit.

No doubt they're in a WWI type situation, though.
 
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BradStevens said:
Ugh. The index fund conspiracy. “Black Rock” isn’t coordinating some mass conspiracy to sell off Ukraine, through its “puppet” companies like Boeing, et al, through manipulating Russia and the U.S. to go to war. This isn’t a Bond movie.

Boeing has a larger market cap than Black Rock, by the way. Add in all those other companies RFK Jr mentions and it’s simply preposterous. He is either ignorant of how fund managers work or intentionally lying.
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Debate this man. And yes, for you left of center he mentions the Pubs as complicit as much as he does Dems, so it’s safe traveling.
 
mohoosier said:
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Debate this man. And yes, for you left of center he mentions the Pubs as complicit as much as he does Dems, so it’s safe traveling.
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MacGregor is cashing in very well, considering he never rose above the rank of Lt. Colonel.

He was predicting a Russian blitzkrieg on day one and that Ukrainians would be quickly conquered. Yet people still give this blowhard any credence.
 
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DANC said:
MacGregor is cashing in very well, considering he never rose above the rank of Lt. Colonel.

He was predicting a Russian blitzkrieg on day one and that Ukrainians would be quickly conquered. Yet people still give this blowhard any credence.
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He may be a blowhard but I think it is a good idea to have a realistic grasp on the situation. The Ukrainians have been losing ground and there are rumblings that they are having manpower issues. They are inflating inflicted Russian losses. Any decision to provide support and/or work with them to continue to fight has to have an endgame that is based on reality.

Do we think the endgame is for them to retake the territory they have lost? If the likelihood of that occurring is slim to none, we could get a negotiated settlement, continue to integrate Ukraine into Western military doctrine and weaponry, and not pull them into NATO, but still meet our goals vis a vis Russia's aggressiveness and expansion are tendencies of late.

They helped bleed the Russians but we are getting to the point where they are starting to bleed us of weapons stockpiles that put our security more at risk.
 
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IUCrazy2 said:
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He may be a blowhard but I think it is a good idea to have a realistic grasp on the situation. The Ukrainians have been losing ground and there are rumblings that they are having manpower issues. They are inflating inflicted Russian losses. Any decision to provide support and/or work with them to continue to fight has to have an endgame that is based on reality.

Do we think the endgame is for them to retake the territory they have lost? If the likelihood of that occurring is slim to none, we could get a negotiated settlement, continue to integrate Ukraine into Western military doctrine and weaponry, and not pull them into NATO, but still meet our goals vis a vis Russia's aggressiveness and expansion are tendencies of late.

They helped bleed the Russians but we are getting to the point where they are starting to bleed us of weapons stockpiles that put our security more at risk.
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How is OSINTDefender any more knowledgeable than any Joe Blow who reads news reports? He's certainly not on the ground in Ukraine (I read - don't remember where - that he's an ex-US Air Force veteran).

All these reports have to be taken with a grain of salt.

I don't think Macgregor has a realistic grasp on the situation at all. He's been wrong since the war began. Why is he suddenly the voice of reason now?
 
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IUCrazy2 said:
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He may be a blowhard but I think it is a good idea to have a realistic grasp on the situation. The Ukrainians have been losing ground and there are rumblings that they are having manpower issues. They are inflating inflicted Russian losses. Any decision to provide support and/or work with them to continue to fight has to have an endgame that is based on reality.

Do we think the endgame is for them to retake the territory they have lost? If the likelihood of that occurring is slim to none, we could get a negotiated settlement, continue to integrate Ukraine into Western military doctrine and weaponry, and not pull them into NATO, but still meet our goals vis a vis Russia's aggressiveness and expansion are tendencies of late.

They helped bleed the Russians but we are getting to the point where they are starting to bleed us of weapons stockpiles that put our security more at risk.
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This is boosting our capacity to make weapons systems and munitions and that’s a good thing. Our ability to surge has essentially disappeared over the years and the timelines from orders to deliveries have become ridiculously and dangerously long. The Russian war against Ukraine is forcing a change on that which is beneficial to us.
 
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DANC said:
How is OSINTDefender any more knowledgeable than any Joe Blow who reads news reports? He's certainly not on the ground in Ukraine (I read - don't remember where - that he's an ex-US Air Force veteran).

All these reports have to be taken with a grain of salt.

I don't think Macgregor has a realistic grasp on the situation at all. He's been wrong since the war began. Why is he suddenly the voice of reason now?
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I don't think MacGregor is the voice of reason. I think that some of you guys are being too dismissive of data that doesn't comport with your desired outcome. I want the Russians to lose. It would be great if the Ukrainians took that equipment we gave them and ran them right out of the country. That doesn't appear to be happening. After their last attempted offensive they are now losing ground. It isn't just OSINT that is saying, "Hey wait, we seem to be getting some bad returns" from Ukraine, there are other voices. Whoever runs that account has been fairly pro-Ukraine though, so seeing that kind of negativity there should give pause.

I also want to point to Macron and his stupidity this past week. I do not want US boots on the ground fighting for Ukraine. We are getting to a WW1 type of situation where more and more powers could be drawn into a regional conflict because of secondary alliances. I don't want our NATO European allies picking fights that they will expect us to be the cavalry in.

So I ask, what is the endgame in Ukraine for the U.S.?
 
Aloha Hoosier said:
This is boosting our capacity to make weapons systems and munitions and that’s a good thing. Our ability to surge has essentially disappeared over the years and the timelines from orders to deliveries have become ridiculously and dangerously long. The Russian war against Ukraine is forcing a change on that which is beneficial to us.
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Agreed, however that lesson is already learned at this point. My question is whether we have reached the point where a negotiated settlement to stop hostilities is the better course of action.
 
IUCrazy2 said:
Agreed, however that lesson is already learned at this point. My question is whether we have reached the point where a negotiated settlement to stop hostilities is the better course of action.
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Not yet. We need to resupply Ukraine, let them do more significant damage to Russia’s military and Putin, then negotiate from a position of strength. I happen to know that we have serious weapons systems ready to ship soon as Congress approves the funding. This will be a serious blow to Russia. I blame my own party for this failure.
 
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Aloha Hoosier said:
Not yet. We need to resupply Ukraine, let them do more significant damage to Russia’s military and Putin, then negotiate from a position of strength. I happen to know that we have serious weapons systems ready to ship soon as Congress approves the funding. This will be a serious blow to Russia. I blame my own party for this failure.
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Farv is some sort of commie. He’s laughing at supporting Ukraine against the invading Russians.
 
Aloha Hoosier said:
Not yet. We need to resupply Ukraine, let them do more significant damage to Russia’s military and Putin, then negotiate from a position of strength. I happen to know that we have serious weapons systems ready to ship soon as Congress approves the funding. This will be a serious blow to Russia. I blame my own party for this failure.
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It seems to me a guaranteed 10 year funding would force Putin to the table. He believes that, at the absolute latest, Jan 20 of next year Ukraine's funding dries up. He has nothing much to lose by waiting, he doesn't care about his people dying.

Many times people on here have argued strongly against any sort of date deadlines as it gives the enemy hope. If that Jan 20, 2025 deadline didn't exist I think Russia would be far more likely to negotiate.

Or maybe all those people complaining when a president would say, "we will be out by..." we're just shoveling BS then, or now, as the 2 arguments are greatly inconsistent with one another.

Militarily the best we, Ukraine, and Russia, should hope for is a negotiated settlement that leaves Russia with most of what it has. But if Putin knows Jan 20, 2025 he can take it all, why wouldn't he wait?
 
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IUCrazy2 said:
Agreed, however that lesson is already learned at this point. My question is whether we have reached the point where a negotiated settlement to stop hostilities is the better course of action.
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Does anyone here oppose a negotiated settlement? But as I just asked, if Putin knows he can take all of Ukraine on Jan 20, 2025 at the latest, what incentive does he have to negotiate?
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
Does anyone here oppose a negotiated settlement? But as I just asked, if Putin knows he can take all of Ukraine on Jan 20, 2025 at the latest, what incentive does he have to negotiate?
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I oppose it, all while knowing that in reality I should agree to it. I do agree with Aloha that we need to help Ukraine drag Russia down a lot further, bleed them dry until there is the (hopefully) inevitable collapse of Russia.
Self admittedly that this is mostly emotion driven, not reality.
 
Marvin the Martian said:
Does anyone here oppose a negotiated settlement? But as I just asked, if Putin knows he can take all of Ukraine on Jan 20, 2025 at the latest, what incentive does he have to negotiate?
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I don't think he can take all of it. The incentive to negotiate is to stop taking the losses for them too. You can keep pumping stuff in there while you talk.

I don't think the Ukrainians can take back those regions head on. I would encourage them to negotiate and then have a separatist movement that continues to bleed the Russian forces there internally. To dissuade Putin we continue to integrate Ukraine into the Western sphere of influence with weapons, tactics, and economic inducements. I don't think I would ever vote to allow them in NATO though.
 
Joe_Hoopsier said:
I oppose it, all while knowing that in reality I should agree to it. I do agree with Aloha that we need to help Ukraine drag Russia down a lot further, bleed them dry until there is the (hopefully) inevitable collapse of Russia.
Self admittedly that this is mostly emotion driven, not reality.
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Russia completely collapsing is a worse situation than the current one.
 
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IUCrazy2 said:
I don't think he can take all of it. The incentive to negotiate is to stop taking the losses for them too. You can keep pumping stuff in there while you talk.

I don't think the Ukrainians can take back those regions head on. I would encourage them to negotiate and then have a separatist movement that continues to bleed the Russian forces there internally. To dissuade Putin we continue to integrate Ukraine into the Western sphere of influence with weapons, tactics, and economic inducements. I don't think I would ever vote to allow them in NATO though.
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I don't think Ukraine can take back what they lost. Ukraine has the Napoleon and Hitler problem, there are a many more Russians than Ukrainians. Defense produces better kill ratios, along with some well timed counter strikes.

I am not sure Putin cares about losses, and so far we see no evidence the Russian people do. If no one cares if they lose 500,000 more, why would he stop.

Even with our aid I am not sure Ukraine can hold out. Without aid, it will be faster and much less of Russia's military destroyed.

Russia cracked the guerilla warfare nut in Chechnya. I am not sure we won't see massive Ukrainian deaths when it falls. Numbers to rival WW2 conquests.
 
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