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Russia-Ukraine war has begun

Sope Creek said:
Would that implicate NATO obligations?
Click to expand...
NATO is a defensive treaty.

Poland moved 1000 troops to the border... 1 battalion. That ain't shit, and only Russian propaganda is making this out to be a big deal.

It's nothing but sensationalized fear mongering from someone who is grossly misinformed about .. almost everything.
 
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Sope Creek said:
Would that implicate NATO obligations?
Click to expand...
Ok so I have been investigating.
NATO, as others have commented, is a defensive agreement..... Unless there are powerful pissed off people in any of the member countries that jut don't care.
As I am learning, we can all do any damn thing we want, once. IT's NOT a war crime the first time. No matter, it may cost us some extra carbon emission, but it's ok for people to die, on the other side, the first time.
Asked and answered!
 
Joe_Hoopsier said:
Ok so I have been investigating.
NATO, as others have commented, is a defensive agreement..... Unless there are powerful pissed off people in any of the member countries that jut don't care.
As I am learning, we can all do any damn thing we want, once. IT's NOT a war crime the first time. No matter, it may cost us some extra carbon emission, but it's ok for people to die, on the other side, the first time.
Asked and answered!
Click to expand...
1. Wagner Coup was fake
2. Poland is not getting invaded by Russia
3. Suwalki Gap is overblown
 
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Has anyone donated to the war effort? If so, which side did you donate to and how much?
I'm considering it but obviously question if the $$ will get to the intended need.
 
TheOriginalHappyGoat said:
Ukraine bombs base housing supersonic bombers.

www.theguardian.com

Ukraine drone strike reportedly destroys Russian supersonic bomber

TU-22M3 – used extensively in missile strikes on Ukraine – seen burning in images shared on social media
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
Nice.

We will have to watch tactics the Ukrainians are using for our own countermeasures. The Russians obviously aren't on our level but there are some low cost things that Ukraine is doing that could be used by other foes against our technology advantage (to a degree).
 
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IUCrazy2 said:
Nice.

We will have to watch tactics the Ukrainians are using for our own countermeasures. The Russians obviously aren't on our level but there are some low cost things that Ukraine is doing that could be used by other foes against our technology advantage (to a degree).
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Military planners are taking note.

I keep seeing incremental progress by Ukraine. But, as one tweeter mentioned, the longer this war goes on, Ukraine is continuing to get more modern weapons and the Ruskies are stuck with the technology they've got and they are having trouble upgrading, and supplying what they've got, with the embargos. It's ironic that a war of attrition may actually help the Ukrainians.

Then there's this: https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/europe/netherlands-denmark-f-16-fighter-jets-ukraine-intl/index.html

I read somewhere else that Ukrainian pilots will be getting live training by Greece. I think they're are already getting simulator training in the US.
 
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Sope Creek said:
I think Putin will take out Prigozhin . . . too much history of him retaliating to ignore. So Prigozhin is as good as dead, IMO.

Putin will survive for a while . . . but he's been hurt politically. His star is trending down. He might last 5 more years in power . . . but he's as good as gone now, a lame duck.

The real question is who will take over Russia after Putin is gone. One thing I'm certain of . . . it won't be Prigozhin. Lukashenko as a kingmaker? Or is he tainted by the Prigozhin deal? I dunno . . . .

One thing that's been bothering me is that Prigozhin's soldiers might have been barking at him for the meat grinder they've been in. That may be why Prigozhin began his "coup" - as a concession to Wagner Group folks - and when Putin agreed to a cessation of hostilities - in Russia - Prigozhin had little choice but to take the deal offered. My guess is that he knows he's at the end of his line anyway - Putin appears as good as done, and Prigozhin is a product of Putin. The Wagner Group soldiers were ready to revolt against Prigozhin anyway - which put Prigozhin between a rock and a hard place. He made the best of a bad lot by tossing the whole Wagner Group shebang to Putin.

Putin is just playing out the string . . . .
Click to expand...
Me thinks he ded or playing ded

www.foxnews.com

Russian Wagner Group warlord Prigozhin among dead on plane that crashed, killing 10, officials say

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the exiled founder of Russia's Wagner Group, was killed in a plane crash near Moscow that left 10 dead, state media reported.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
 
BadWakeboarder said:
Me thinks he ded or playing ded

www.foxnews.com

Russian Wagner Group warlord Prigozhin among dead on plane that crashed, killing 10, officials say

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the exiled founder of Russia's Wagner Group, was killed in a plane crash near Moscow that left 10 dead, state media reported.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
Click to expand...
Ex-Ambassador McFaul is saying it was Prighozin's private plane, and TASS is saying it was "shot down accidentally", 30 minutes into a flight from Moscow to St Pete...

 
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BadWakeboarder said:
Me thinks he ded or playing ded

www.foxnews.com

Russian Wagner Group warlord Prigozhin among dead on plane that crashed, killing 10, officials say

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the exiled founder of Russia's Wagner Group, was killed in a plane crash near Moscow that left 10 dead, state media reported.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
Click to expand...

il_570xN.1358515487_76fu.jpg
 
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ISW’s take …
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23-2023

Putin almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane. Elements of the Russian military, especially Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, would be extremely unlikely to execute Prigozhin without Putin’s order. The entirety of the Russian political and security sphere likely viewed Prigozhin’s continued survival following Wagner’s rebellion as at Putin’s discretion. ISW will make further assessments based on the assumption that Putin ordered Prigozhin’s assassination unless evidence to the contrary emerges. ISW’s previous standing assessment that Putin was unlikely to kill Prigozhin for fear of angering Wagner personnel has thus been invalidated.[20]

Putin may have concluded that he had sufficiently separated Prigozhin from Wagner and could kill him without turning Prigozhin into a martyr for the remaining Wagner personnel. Some Wagner commanders recently appeared to betray Wagner for the Russian MoD-affiliated Redut PMC, suggesting that the Kremlin’s and Russian MoD’s efforts to separate Wagner elements from those loyal to Prigozhin were partially succeeding.[21] Increasing reports of Wagner’s financial issues and corresponding reports of Wagner personnel leaving the group due to decreased payments and opportunities to deploy may have resulted in Prigozhin losing favor among the Wagner rank-in-file.[22] The Russian MoD has been setting conditions to replace the Wagner Group with MoD-affiliated PMCs, and Russian sources have claimed that these PMCs are attempting to recruit current and former Wagner personnel.[23] Putin may have decided that Wagner personnel had reached a point where they were sufficiently more interested in payments and deployments with these new PMCS than their continued loyalty to Prigozhin and that he could safely kill Prigozhin.

Alternatively, Putin may have decided that Prigozhin had crossed a pre-established redline with his efforts to retain Wagner’s access to operations in Africa. Putin, Prigozhin, and Lukashenko may have included an agreement in the deal that ended Wagner’s rebellion that required Prigozhin to limit his and Wagner's media presence and/or curtail Wagner's operations in Africa. Prigozhin’s August 21 video claiming that Wagner is expanding its presence in Africa and subsequent uptick in Wagner recruitment advertisements may have crossed a pre-established redline if Prigozhin had agreed to silence himself.[24] Prigozhin’s alleged repeated attempts to prevent the Russian MoD from completely replacing the Wagner contingent in Africa may have also crossed a pre-established redline restricting Wagner’s African operations. Putin may have decided that Prigozhin had violated enough aspects or all of the pre-established deal.

The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to deflect overt responsibility for Prigozhin’s assassination away from Putin and the Russian military. Rosaviatsiya created a special commission to investigate the technical condition of the crashed aircraft, the meteorological conditions on the flight route, and the dispatch services and ground radio equipment.[35] The Russian Investigative Committee has initiated a criminal case on the charge of violating the rules of traffic safety and operation of air transport.[36] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger noted that the Investigative Committee may choose the “erroneous” launch of air defense systems as the main version of the event given the claimed Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow.[37] A Russian insider source claimed that the crash will likely be framed as a terrorist act that occurred onboard, and Russian State Duma Deputy Yevgeniy Popov already echoed this narrative in the Russian information space.[38] A Wagner-affiliated channel criticized Russian state TV channels for failing to mention the crash during the evening news cycle.[39]

The wider Russian information space refrained from commenting on the reasons behind the crash, with only a few sources tying the incident to the Kremlin and/or the Russian MoD. Many sources observed that the crash occurred exactly two months after the start of Prigozhin’s rebellion.[40] Several insider sources claimed that the incident indicated that Putin “has something to be afraid of” and speculated that Putin’s system (likely referring to his regime) is undergoing a new wave of changes.[41] Some milbloggers claimed that Prigozhin’s assassination will have “catastrophic consequences” and that this incident is a lesson that one must always continue going until the end – implying that Prigozhin should have continued his march on Moscow.[42] Most milbloggers refused to comment on Prigozhin’s death, citing a lack of available official information.[43] ISW will resume its coverage of milblogger reactions on August 24.
 
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jet812 said:
Bomb snuck or planted on board.
Click to expand...
That actually sounds more plausible than a SAM, where the unit commander needs to get command authority.
A barometric triggered device wouldn’t be hard to build. And comes with more plausible deniability.
 
TomEric4756 said:
That actually sounds more plausible than a SAM, where the unit commander needs to get command authority.
A barometric triggered device wouldn’t be hard to build. And comes with more plausible deniability.
Click to expand...
Also allows for rumors that it was a false flag and Prigozhin is alive. Assuming Moscow finds such rumors useful.
 
Interesting video report of Russians fighting for Ukraine.

www.pbs.org

Inside the controversial group of Russian dissidents fighting with Ukraine against Putin

Ukraine is working with many international fighters in its battle against Russia. A group of Russian dissidents made headlines in May with cross-border raids from Ukraine into Russia. But the group’s white nationalist politics feeds into Putin’s propaganda that Ukraine is dominated by the far...
www.pbs.org www.pbs.org
 
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TheOriginalHappyGoat said:
Also allows for rumors that it was a false flag and Prigozhin is alive. Assuming Moscow finds such rumors useful.
Click to expand...

lots of cheaper ways to assassinate someone, with a lot less collateral damage and a lot more proof of death.

absent Prig publicly shows up alive somewhere sometime, we'll never have the slightest idea if he was on that plane or not.
 
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