You wouldn't think that if you actually read the bill. As we explained in great detail at the time.
Polymarket
- Thread starter snarlcakes
- Start date
Excuse me, but could you please tell us when dbm is scheduled to post his next "breakthrough" poll showing Trump winning?
They made a decent move in Trump's direction. Harris's lead in the popular vote also dropped to 61% for a little while and Republicans chances of sweeping increased to 40%. It's going to be interesting to see how predictive these markets are or are not in November.
It's obvious you guys are staggering your meaningless "polls" to exaggerate Trump's support.
It’s not a poll, it’s a betting market. Harris has good odds if you like her to win. Jump on it.
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Yep. Rarely wrong. Sandyhook faked. If I was one of the parents of a child killed I would have gladly spent the rest of my life in jail to get the chance to hear him beg for his life. Then I’d execute him. He’s a piece of s** t.
Trump’s campaign is pushing fake polls to encourage turnout, as is the Harris campaign and media allies. Harris should win this going away.
The only concern is her campaign staff making the same mistakes Hillary’s did by trying to out Republican the Republicans. Why she is doing these boring events with Liz Cheney and Brett Bauer, instead of daily rallies in college towns to excite all the new young voters is beyond me.
The only concern is her campaign staff making the same mistakes Hillary’s did by trying to out Republican the Republicans. Why she is doing these boring events with Liz Cheney and Brett Bauer, instead of daily rallies in college towns to excite all the new young voters is beyond me.
I got all the bullet points - and think they basically ruined both the bill and its chances with the emergency authority triggers.
If the Senate authors of that bill had actually wanted to force House Republicans to show their cards and put Trump on the defensive, they should either have just moved the bill which had already passed the House or done this bill without requiring the encounter thresholds to trigger the “emergency authorities”. Just make them the normal default policy, with the goal (unattainable though it is) being zero encounters between POEs.
Doing what they did made it easy for House Republicans to decline it - without denting Trump’s advantage on the issue even slightly.
Ron Brownstein appeared on the Hacks on Tap podcast with Axelrod and Mike Murphy and kind of touched on this.
They made a lot of good points about what she is and isn’t doing and what she should and shouldn’t be doing. But the one that resonated with me the most is that she’s not really projecting a clear and concise closing argument (contra Trump who is going with the “they/them” ad and, of course, hammering immigration).
Instead, they see her as being transactional with this or that group that she’s lagging her target performance with (thus the Breakfast Club appearance and the possible Rogan appearance) - which necessitates narrow, tailored messaging.
Good Lord, man. I’m certainly no Alex Jones fan. But do you think fantasizing about murdering him is a good way to declare your presence on the higher moral ground?
What he said about Sandy Hook was cruel, crass, and heartless - in addition to being twisted and bizarre. But responding to his words by expressing a dark fantasy is pretty obviously a bit much. Maybe if it was directed at Lanza?
I said nothing about Alex Jones and wasn't referring to him. Not sure where you got Alex Jones or Sandyhook from.
You guys are gonna claim fraud at this point on any result but a historic landslide for Trump, aren’t you?
Prepare to be disappointed then, because this election will be close.
Prepare to be disappointed then, because this election will be close.
It will absolutely be close. And, keeping with a theme from the “vibes” I’m picking up…
Back in June/July, Trumpers seemed certain Trump was destined for victory as Biden seemed to be showing so many signs of confusion and diminishment.
They get Biden out and Kamala Harris injects enthusiasm and renewal in Dem hopes. Then, for August and September, it was the Dems who seemed to think they were headed to victory as Harris pretty quickly jumped into a consistent polling lead on the surge of that energy.
You can find polling that gives Trump a lead in some or most of the battleground states. You can find polling that gives Harris a lead in the “Blue Wall” states.
Despite this, because Trump has closed the gap of Harris’ early lead, it’s the Trumpers who seem confident again and the Dems who seem wary.
The best read I have on the data right now is that it’s a dead heat. And I really wouldn’t ascribe too much value either to betting market odds (Hillary was at $0.81 on election day 2016) or to early voting data.
But what you can count on is that partisans of both tribes will be touting any nugget of data that suggests their candidate is best positioned to win…and more or less discounting or disregarding any other data that suggests they aren’t.
I’m storming the capital on November 6th if he gets cheated again 🤣
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What data out there suggests Harris will win? Asking honestly. And don't give me something like the just released NPR Marist poll which uses a D+7 sample in a likely R+1 electorate or a Morning Consult poll. Those actually look very good for Trump.
Well, here’s one. And there are others. Keep in mind that most of the election modelers (like The Economist, etal) are still seeing Harris as a slight favorite….somewhere around 55-45.
That’s subject to change, of course. And I do think it’s right that the numbers have moved in Trump’s favor over the past couple weeks. The trend favors him at this point (and now is when you’d want to have it favoring you…like a horse on the homestretch).
But I really believe it will (a) be close, and (b) could go either way.
Nope. Those are more garbage polls that have already been dissected. The Economist and NYT always drastically overstate the Dems support. And the PA poll is complete trash. It's really Trump+4 when weighted correctly. Maybe find a poll or 2 that were accurate in 2016 or 2020 and now show Harris up. Good luck.
Of course - one ironclad rule of tribalism is that any poll that shows something other than what a tribalist wants to see is discounted, disregarded, “garbage”.
There’s really only one poll that matters. I’m not saying that Trump isn’t going to win. But I am saying that the growing confidence his supporters are getting seems a little overcooked and premature.
Why would you believe that a poll that drastically overstated Dem support in 16 and 20 won't do so now when they are using the exact same methodology?
More evidence from this morning.
And here are the most accurate pollsters in Michigan and where they have the race today.
And here are the most accurate pollsters in Michigan and where they have the race today.
This is what I'm talking about Crazed. Compare the poll to the same poll at the same time and we can talk. I'm all for accurate data even if doesn't reflect the narrative I want. Give me truth before propaganda.
I agree it’s a toss up. The sentiment has recently shifted in Trump’s direction. Anecdotal, but I was talking to a buddy over the weekend who hates Trump. All, he ever did was b#tch about how stupid he was in 16 and 20. Out of the nowhere he said he’s voting for Trump. He’s a teacher and the school he’s at has had a large influx of immigrants. His classes are getting into the 30s with several students who don’t speak any English in them. I was still shocked he’s voting for him.
Have you noticed that the people you refer to and cite all tend to view everything through a lens of the data favoring Trump?
It’s not hard to find other self-proclaimed election data analysts who do the same thing…except they have a lens that favors Harris. Simon Rosenberg is one. I’m sure you’ll say he’s full of it. And I’m sure that Harris supporters would say that Rich Baris and others who pump Trump is full of it.
So, you may not think that you’re passing along spin. But, if that’s the case, it’s probably because you’re unaware that spin is what’s being fed to you.
There are honest brokers out there who aren’t invested in any specific narrative. Steve Kornacki is one of them. Dave Wasserman. Amy Walter.
Those are the kinds of people who should be listened to. They aren’t cheerleaders for or against anybody.
There is a strain of these morons who are basically turning anything traditionally male into the definition of fascism. Next thing you know, one of these idiots is going to opine that sports are fascist, too.
Oh wait:
Sports Are Facist
I started saying it as a joke. But over time, it has become part of my moral code.
www.theodysseyonline.com
(yes it's a random internet post from 2016. But I'd bet that Joy Reid et al. would snap that up if it turned out most CFB or NFL fans voted Trump, for example).
