It will absolutely be close. And, keeping with a theme from the “vibes” I’m picking up…
Back in June/July, Trumpers seemed certain Trump was destined for victory as Biden seemed to be showing so many signs of confusion and diminishment.
They get Biden out and Kamala Harris injects enthusiasm and renewal in Dem hopes. Then, for August and September, it was the Dems who seemed to think they were headed to victory as Harris pretty quickly jumped into a consistent polling lead on the surge of that energy.
You can find polling that gives Trump a lead in some or most of the battleground states. You can find polling that gives Harris a lead in the “Blue Wall” states.
Despite this, because Trump has closed the gap of Harris’ early lead, it’s the Trumpers who seem confident again and the Dems who seem wary.
The best read I have on the data right now is that it’s a dead heat. And I really wouldn’t ascribe too much value either to betting market odds (Hillary was at $0.81 on election day 2016) or to early voting data.
But what you can count on is that partisans of both tribes will be touting any nugget of data that suggests their candidate is best positioned to win…and more or less discounting or disregarding any other data that suggests they aren’t.