Inflation

[snarlcakes]

A lot of the people who said Covid spending wasn't going to be inflationary are now saying tariffs will be inflationary. They're going to be wrong again. There will be a one time price adjustment for some goods and services, but tariffs won't be inflationary overall. There isn't any new money being printed. The problem will be slowing growth and a bad recession, which is deflationary. Prices will drop. Powell is behind the curve again and needs to cut in May.

 

[WhyisIUBBcursed]

A lot of the people who said Covid spending wasn't going to be inflationary are now saying tariffs will be inflationary. They're going to be wrong again. There will be a one time price adjustment for some goods and services, but tariffs won't be inflationary overall. There isn't any new money being printed. The problem will be slowing growth and a bad recession, which is deflationary. Prices will drop. Powell is behind the curve again and needs to cut in May.

Great. Prices will drop and nobody will have any $$ left to spend on the cheap goods. And yes. Covid free handouts were dumb as hell also

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

A lot of the people who said Covid spending wasn't going to be inflationary are now saying tariffs will be inflationary. They're going to be wrong again. There will be a one time price adjustment for some goods and services, but tariffs won't be inflationary overall. There isn't any new money being printed. The problem will be slowing growth and a bad recession, which is deflationary. Prices will drop. Powell is behind the curve again and needs to cut in May.

Were these the people who also thought the Fed controlled fiscal policy? Asking for a friend...

But, in all seriousness, you are probably right and wrong. I agree that much of the inflation is going to be in the near term, followed by a drop in aggregate demand, which is deflationary. I would expect prices to rise on a Micro (think specific products or companies) level.

The complications occur when considering timing and other context. Supply chain dislocation may create inflation in the medium-term and potentially long run, but it depends. Given these are constantly changing, some are blanket, some have exclusions and the communication of such tariff policy has been horrendous, we don't really know and companies are behind the proverbial eight ball when it comes to knowing how to react.

Lastly, questioning the timing of reducing aggregate demand during a period when government spending is expected to reduce significantly is poor policy implementation. You can certainly agree with each stance and also acknowledge that the execution of the current economic strategy is nothing short of a shit show.

 

[Indyhorn]

If you can recall 1974 stagflation you know what’s coming. Stable genius uhm not

 

[snarlcakes]

Were these the people who also thought the Fed controlled fiscal policy? Asking for a friend...

But, in all seriousness, you are probably right and wrong. I agree that much of the inflation is going to be in the near term, followed by a drop in aggregate demand, which is deflationary. I would expect prices to rise on a Micro (think specific products or companies) level.

The complications occur when considering timing and other context. Supply chain dislocation may create inflation in the medium-term and potentially long run, but it depends. Given these are constantly changing, some are blanket, some have exclusions and the communication of such tariff policy has been horrendous, we don't really know and companies are behind the proverbial eight ball when it comes to knowing how to react.

Yeah, we're not going to agree on this. CPI is dropping under 2% if Trump doesn't do a complete 180. Truflation has dropped to 1.3%. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon.

Lastly, questioning the timing of reducing aggregate demand during a period when government spending is expected to reduce significantly is poor policy implementation. You can certainly agree with each stance and also acknowledge that the execution of the current economic strategy is nothing short of a shit show.

I agree on execution. Unless, he gets the entire world to drop all tariffs, there wasn't any need for all this nonsense. If he wants tariffs, slap 10% on countries and be done with it.