I don’t doubt that they passed that law. I don’t dispute it. As I said, when I registered in all 5 different states I had to show that I was a US citizen. So now I’m registered. So when I show up to vote and all the information I give them regarding birth date, address etc and it matches what the election worker has in their book, why would I need to show id? Seems pretty logical that republicans are just attempting to suppress the democratic vote. Look at the laws passed since 2020. Georgia for instance passed a law that you can be arrested for giving water to people waiting in line. Seriously?? Voter suppression at its best.
Polymarket
- Thread starter snarlcakes
- Start date
He's wrong, of course. However, my general belief about the 2020 Big Lie and January 6th is that anybody whose vote is going to be affected by those issues are already sealed up.
That's why I've never understood why Democrats keep pounding away on January 6th. I don't think anybody who hasn't already come into the Democratic fold on the basis of that event in the 4 years since it happened is going to suddenly do so now.
But maybe I'm wrong.
In my view I it seems like pubs just continue to pander to and bolster the base. They’ve already bought tickets. Get off that and try to find a way to convince newbies to come.
Oh Lord. Did you see turnout in Georgia after that law had gone into effect? And the results? Georgia has two Democratic Senators.
I'll say this much: if the aim of that law was to suppress votes (and specifically Democratic votes), it failed miserably.
Also, if there were a bunch of people walking around who are registered to vote, who wanted to vote, who made an attempt to vote, but were unable to vote for lack of a Photo ID, I'm pretty sure we'd have a running list of their names and stories. Have you noticed that we don't know who any of these people are? If there have been instances of it happening, they're awfully isolated.
Oh, I agree. It's the flip side of what I said about the Dems continuing to pound it. When I say that everybody motivated by the outcome and aftermath of the 2020 election is already committed, I meant for both parties.
Neither party is going to win many, if any, undecided votes by harping on 2020.
Both of them seem to have this comfort zone they stay in and don't do anything (or at least not much that's discernable) to bring anyone over to their side. 2 hogs enjoying their respective muddy wallows.
Rewatching the video, I can believe that Biden said "By the way...she's not as strong as me" and that Obama responded by nodding and saying "That's true."
This video starts right about the time I think Biden may have said this. As the old NFL spots said "You Make the Call!"
So do you expect Obama to slam Biden to his face and say she's got better numbers than you do? Even though by every metric she does?
There's this false narrative out there that Obama and Harris don't "like" each other, but she was one of the first people to go all in on his 2008 candidacy when she was just the AG of CA and he was largely unknown......Here is a FB post from her in 2019 dicussing her reunion with Glen, the resident of a nursing home she first met in Iowa while canvassing for Obama way back in 2008...
You realize that when she was in the freezing cold of Iowa in Jan/Feb 2008 she wasn't getting paid and probably would have preferred to be in CA sunshine? / Yet she went to Iowa to work for a relatively unknown BO. And people believe they don't like each other?
I don’t doubt he signed such a law. The point is pretty simple. See if you can follow this. I have to show proof of citizenship when I register to vote. I do so. Now I’m registered. They also get my address. Now I go to vote. I give them my name and address. They tell me it matches what I gave them a year ago when I registered. Why would I need to show an id? Everything matches. Oh and what if I don’t have my id because the state confiscated it when I got my DUI? Which by the way I’ve never had one. Just a for instance. I don’t need to jump through any more hoops unless the Republican Party is afraid I’ll vote democrat and they can’t have that now can they? They fear losing their grip on power so they put as many as possible obstacles in the way. And they know which ones will impact likely democratic voters. They are never to insure fraud doesn’t happen because it doesn’t happen in any way that would change time election outcome. The AP checked over 300 precincts in 6 battleground states that Biden won in 2020. 473 cases of voter fraud. Biden won those states by a combined 311,000 votes. I know facts are difficult for the followers of the dancing Orange Orangutan.
No, I wouldn't expect Obama to be anything but civil and agreeable to Biden. But I don't think Obama's response (if, in fact, the lip-reading transcript is accurate) is the story here. I think the story is Biden's first comment.
BTW, wasn't there a classic Seinfeld episode that involved a lip reader?
Haven’t they learned anything from the euros. Every time a player tried to get Messi to jump sides they all cover their mouths
Cosmic it’s available to U.S. citizens and extremely easy to place a wager. You’re getting crappy information on it.
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I don’t think the 2016 example holds merit. Do you know the amounts of money wagers in 2016? I assume the amount is much lower than it is today. There are also a lot more people who own crypto and familiar with it today than 2016. I trust Polymarket more than any singular polling company.I generally agree that betting markets should be taken with a grain of salt. They're only a spot measure of sentiment about who's going to win. And that's all they are. Trump supporters are touting them, naturally, because they're trending (slightly) towards a Trump win. But...
Hillary Clinton's futures were trading above $0.80 on Election Day 2016. And look how that turned out. All that it meant was that most people who were participating in those markets thought she would win -- which isn't surprising. Most people everywhere expected her to win.
But, FWIW, Polymarket isn't the only betting market showing the race at 60% expectation of a Trump victory. Pretty much all of them are. But that's likely to change between now and Election Day -- and it could very easily change in Harris' favor.
Where is it in my post that I said he didn’t? It’s now the law. End of story. Now please prove the 2020 fraud. You guys always avoid the actual facts. Im done responding to a cultist that doesn’t provide facts to disprove my post.
It’s hard for me because I don’t know how to post links! But the world is flat!
I saw that first thing this morning without any context and was dying. Even funnier now with all the "lip reading experts" weighing in on what they were talking about.
I wonder why.
Thing is…there’s nothing to “trust”. Assuming the operators of a futures market aren’t monkeying with the numbers (and I’m not alleging they are), it’s just a measure of bettor sentiment.
So I trust them too: to have prices that reflect the sentiment of their participants. And even that may involve some bias based on preference rather than expectation.
But, for the most part, it’s just people trying to make money based on who they expect will win elections.
I don’t know how much money was put in them in 2016. But the lesson from that is that these aren’t reliable predictors. Rather, they are reliable reflections of sentiment. And the vast majority of people expected Clinton to win in 2016.
That combined with the glance by Obama immediately after makes the video.
If it swings back to Harris, I think she will win. My opinion on Polymarkets isn’t going to change, unless it’s way off in November.I wonder why.
I’d still rather have sentiment that is coming from a market where people have skin in the game than a pollster.
I disgaree with your conclusion. You’re comparing apples to oranges with 2016 to 2024. Do you own any crypto? It’s night and day difference between 2016 and now. I think it will hold up well against all the pollsters this year.
So that’s your answer to the massive fraud claims? I don’t know either how to post links but I do know how to find the facts. The Dancing Orange Orangutan and his sycophants are setting the stage for violence if he loses because once again he says he can only lose if dems cheat. Another lie he had to be called out on yesterday was that his threats about assessing a 200% tariff on John Deere if they move any of their business to Mexico. John Deere issued a statement yesterday say that was absolutely not true. Your leader says he’s looking out for the farmer who many are already having difficulty purchasing new equipment. So how does a 200% tariff make it easier for the farmer? The tariff is a direct tax on the end buyerand Mexico isn’t going to pay it just like they didn’t pay a dime for his wall.
Again shows what a serial liar he is and how he doesn’t understand basic economics.
Isn’t it amazing how he leads in every poll you dumb asses post. Just setting it up for his call for violence if he loses. But I guess you in the cult are too blind to see it. Thou shall have no other God before thee. Commandment number 1.
As I’ve said, one thing we can all count on during election season is that hardcore tribalists (like dbm…and you) will loudly tout anything that suggests their candidate is winning…and will ignore, downplay, or reject anything that suggests the other candidate is winning.
This used to just be relegated to paid political operatives called “spin doctors.” But today, anybody can be a spin doctor. And the candidates don’t even have to pay for it!
As I believe most of us are aware that with the death of lan lines and the rise of social media....polls are nothing like they used to be as far as accuracy and participation.
Most online polls are 'Opt in' meaning you have to verify and Opt in which is why it tends to be dominated by the extremes of both tribes who are excited to participate in a political poll.
Cynically it seems as if both sides are learning how to craft strategic narratives from polls vs being aware of the info.
One side wants to convince their side is guaranteed victory so they can efficiently radicalize the base with disbelief if the actual votes go against them.
The other side wants to scare their voters into prioritizing voting based on polls that say the race is close or they are losing. That fear is believed to be used to help insure a stronger turnout.
JFC, Murt. We are talking DJT and dbm, no other type of connection is possible.
I’m going to give you only one warning, quit disrespecting President Trump..
No where in any post have I said my candidate is winning. I’ve said that polls mean absolutely nothing and gave examples of how wrong they were in the last 2 presidential elections. I said if he loses he’s setting it up just as he did in 2020. He can only lose if the dems cheat. Then he’ll calll out the neo Nazi’s and his other blind followers to fight like hell to take the country back. Same playbook. And if he wins he said he’d use the military to round up the enemy within which is anyone who didn’t support him and journalists who may write an unfavorable article about him. Let it sink in. He wants to use the military against American citizens. Posse Comitatus prevents that in this country.
You know what? I'll bet cash money he totally made that shit up out of thin air.
