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Polls - - a week out

Dems feel increasingly bullish about PA, both in terms of early vote as well as ED prospects.

First off despite increased efforts and turnout from GOP registered voters, Dems still lead 941,000--547,000 in terms of votes cast by registered Dems vs registered Pubs. So nearly a 400,000 vote lead.

But beyond just the raw numbers, Dems are pretty happy with the composition of the early vote...

With the already demonstrated generation gap in the early vote in PA (Women lead by 13%), as well as the generation gap that shows up in actual polling it's reasonable to assume that some of the registered female repubs who voted early by mail so far are voting for Harris. And of the GOP mail votes that have been cast they are overwhelmingly coming from areas where Haley did very well in the Primary. For reference PA has a closed Primary and Haley got over 130,000 votes in PA despite the Primary occurring 7 weeks after she left the race.

We won't know how Haley voters split until after the election. But a significant number of GOP voters who cast mail ballots in 2020 actually voted for Biden. So it's pretty reasonable to assume a number of these early votes cast by Haley supporters are voting for Harris. But we won't find out till the votes are counted...

Also fully 93% of the early GOP vote comes from 2020 voters. Which means they aren't doing a good job of turning out new or lower propensity voters. Of that 547,000 votes returned early by the GOP, 47% come from voters who voted on ED in 2020.

On the other hand of the 940,000 votes returned by Dems only 12% come from people who voted on election day in 2020. That means the Dems total includes a combination of both mail voters from 2020, as well as New or non-2020 voters...

Voter registration in Nevada is down to +8755 D. On Sept. 30th the gap was just short of 19k for the Ds. I don’t have a number for GOP voters now registered in Nevada. It was 574,270 on Sept 30th. I have this idea that pushing early voting (this is what the Ds have done so well since 2004) actually increases that party’s overall vote. It looks like to be that the GOP could have added 15,000 new voters since Oct 1st and since they are doing so during early voting it’s an actual vote. I was wrong about cannibalizing the vote in the past. I think we could seeing +500,000 GOP votes cast this year and the GOP is shy of 370,000 cast right now. There is a lot more potential GOP votes out there for IPEV (today), mail in ballots and EV.
Have the returned numbers from Clark Co been updated yet. As of last night they were still lagging significantly behind...
 
Dems feel increasingly bullish about PA, both in terms of early vote as well as ED prospects.

First off despite increased efforts and turnout from GOP registered voters, Dems still lead 941,000--547,000 in terms of votes cast by registered Dems vs registered Pubs. So nearly a 400,000 vote lead.

But beyond just the raw numbers, Dems are pretty happy with the composition of the early vote...

With the already demonstrated generation gap in the early vote in PA (Women lead by 13%), as well as the generation gap that shows up in actual polling it's reasonable to assume that some of the registered female repubs who voted early by mail so far are voting for Harris. And of the GOP mail votes that have been cast they are overwhelmingly coming from areas where Haley did very well in the Primary. For reference PA has a closed Primary and Haley got over 130,000 votes in PA despite the Primary occurring 7 weeks after she left the race.

We won't know how Haley voters split until after the election. But a significant number of GOP voters who cast mail ballots in 2020 actually voted for Biden. So it's pretty reasonable to assume a number of these early votes cast by Haley supporters are voting for Harris. But we won't find out till the votes are counted...

Also fully 93% of the early GOP vote comes from 2020 voters. Which means they aren't doing a good job of turning out new or lower propensity voters. Of that 547,000 votes returned early by the GOP, 47% come from voters who voted on ED in 2020.

On the other hand of the 940,000 votes returned by Dems only 12% come from people who voted on election day in 2020. That means the Dems total includes a combination of both mail voters from 2020, as well as New or non-2020 voters...


Have the returned numbers from Clark Co been updated yet. As of last night they were still lagging significantly behind...
I must have posted them in the wrong thread. The GOP added +15,000 voters to the rolls in Nevada since Oct 1st.

The GOP momentum in early voting is continuing without pause
 
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Mail ballot update for Arizona…pretty brutal news for Ds…2,183,594 ballots like 65% or more of total votes

716,864 D
892,815 R
573,915 Other
+8% for the GOP. The pool of voters who voted early in person or sent in ballots is about +4.8%. The balance of the voters who have not voted early or requested a mail ballot is about +6% R. So the pool of voters who could potentially vote on early (did not request a mail in ballot) is actually more R then those who have returned ballots. Of course at any point in time voters can put their ballot in the mail or they can take it a Dropbox or commission office. Must be in hand by end of Election Day.

With 65% of ballots in younger voters are well behind 2020 numbers and minority apparently are below 2020 levels as well. This is pretty stunning turnaround from 2020 numbers.
 

Oregon ballot returns are up to 1,166,985…well behind 2020 numbers. GOP voters have returned 50.6% of their ballots or 376,000 while Ds have returned 45.9% of their ballots. Portland area lagging in ballot turn in numbers….younger voters are slower to turn in ballots and I bet turnout is lower than 2020.

In 2020 the mail in ballot count was 2.115 million and the Ds had 889,178 ballots turned in and the Rs had 621,000. Some voters do vote in person but if this trend holds instead of being 268,000 votes ahead the Ds would be maybe 160,000 or so votes ahead of the Rs. We will know more on Monday. This number is likely about 50% of turnout
 

Colorado as of Oct. 31st….1,731,171 are in or about 55% or so of expected votes? 18-34 make up about 9% of ballots in….five days to go if count a Tuesday postmark from Thursday and in 2020 they accounted for 24% of total ballots turned in.

The GOP in Colorado is only a bit more R than the mail ballots in 2020 but most voters are indies so it’s really depends in that state. Still based on what seems to be lower younger and minority voter numbers that is historically good for the GOP
 

Early vote in Georgia was quite different than it was 2020.

Rural I counties are up, younger voters are down and by what I saw it was 3% less AA. Complete numbers for 2020 in link above.


White was 56.5 AA was 27.7….the current data is 58.7 white and 26.2 AA but more important the white voters are not younger white voters in Fulton and DeKalb counties but from rural Georgia
 

Early vote in Georgia was quite different than it was 2020.

Rural I counties are up, younger voters are down and by what I saw it was 3% less AA. Complete numbers for 2020 in link above.


White was 56.5 AA was 27.7….the current data is 58.7 white and 26.2 AA but more important the white voters are not younger white voters in Fulton and DeKalb counties but from rural Georgia
Good intel Spartans per usual. @dbmhoosier what are we hearing? Widespread cheating?
 
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Oregon ballot returns are up to 1,166,985…well behind 2020 numbers. GOP voters have returned 50.6% of their ballots or 376,000 while Ds have returned 45.9% of their ballots. Portland area lagging in ballot turn in numbers….younger voters are slower to turn in ballots and I bet turnout is lower than 2020.

In 2020 the mail in ballot count was 2.115 million and the Ds had 889,178 ballots turned in and the Rs had 621,000. Some voters do vote in person but if this trend holds instead of being 268,000 votes ahead the Ds would be maybe 160,000 or so votes ahead of the Rs. We will know more on Monday. This number is likely about 50% of turnout
Why in the hell are you talking about Oregon and Colorado?
 
Why in the hell are you talking about Oregon and Colorado?
Last I checked….they hadn’t seceded.

Looks like a race to the finish of early voting in Nevada. 1.026 million votes with likely another 325K to go. If the GOP hits 83.3 % of its turnout (it was 81% in) that would be another 107K to go and that is without any new ED registrants. With the growing % of others voting the GOP could end up at +50K advantage. Could that is. Clark county mail is a variable.

As of Oct 31st, Washoe county had received 92,315 ballots and had about 5000 or so to process. Didn’t see information on ballots received on Nov 1st. The 5,000 ballots out appear to be about 1700D, 1900R and 1500 or so Other. It’s hard to nail down an exact number because of “un-cured” ballots. Not a lot of them out but if someone fails to sign properly they are contacted and asked to “cure” or fix their ballot. So it looks like it’s all about Clark county mail in ballots and Election Day voting. It will probably be a wash. +140,000 mail ballots…180,000 ED vote and 45K to 52K GOP advantage. As to the Indie vote based on map of Clark county early voting Hispanic and AA areas are down while more R areas are up….indies live all over Clark county. Those indies who have voted are older and live in more R areas. That is another bit of good news for the GOP.
 
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@dbmhoosier polls all trending in favor of Harris. Turned after that moronic msg rally. Having that comedian will go down as one of the dumbest f ups in history
The f-up is yet another hoax. The comedian was not joking about Puerto Ricans, he was joking about the well-known (to those who know ) trash crisis/problem on the island. The guy is a frequent visitor. The truth is out there, yet the hoax goes on just like the Cheney execution hoax, the fine people hoax, the dictator day one hoax, the blood bath hoax, the project 25 hoax, the abortion ban hoax, the ivf hoax, and on and on.

Many wouldn’t mind if Trump lost in a fair fight, but this isn’t that. The Dems got nuthin’; no defensible record, no appealing promises, and nothing but a conglomeration of hoaxes, lies, and epithets against the opponent. Yet all of that is working. Thank the lord for democracy.

Hoaxes have consequences as you noted in the self service thread.
 
The f-up is yet another hoax. The comedian was not joking about Puerto Ricans, he was joking about the well-known (to those who know ) trash crisis/problem on the island. The guy is a frequent visitor. The truth is out there, yet the hoax goes on just like the Cheney execution hoax, the fine people hoax, the dictator day one hoax, the blood bath hoax, the project 25 hoax, the abortion ban hoax, the ivf hoax, and on and on.

Many wouldn’t mind if Trump lost in a fair fight, but this isn’t that. The Dems got nuthin’; no defensible record, no appealing promises, and nothing but a conglomeration of hoaxes, lies, and epithets against the opponent. Yet all of that is working. Thank the lord for democracy.

Hoaxes have consequences as you noted in the self service thread.
Not one bit of that matters. You don’t provide the opp for msm to run with a narrative. As I said msg was a disastrous unforced error
 
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Why in the hell are you talking about Oregon and Colorado?
Mail in returns in 2024 are lower than they were in 2020 by just about the same ratios in Oregon, Colorado, California. It’s as if voters in CA, OR and CO are acting exactly the same. We are seeing many other similar patterns in various states. Why should mail in ballot returns for the various states not familiar a pattern from state to state. Washington is similar. The slowness in ballot returns are there as well. Washington, however, unlike Oregon, Colorado and California does not have party registration so it’s hard to look at that detail.

So CA, OR and CO are all showing these two occurrences.
1st total ballots that have been returned is down.
2nd as to the ballots that have been returned the % percent and the % of ballots per GOP registrations are improved in a relative basis to 2020 numbers for the R side. So GOP is better % wise in 2024 than 2020.

We are just a few days out so ….a couple conclusions. Mail in ballots for these states will eventually be (maybe we will know the number by next Saturday) lower in 2024 than in 2020. And unless the trend changes the GOP % relative to 2020 will be better.
 
Not one bit of that matters. You don’t provide the opp for msm to run with a narrative. As I said msg was a disastrous unforced error
Nah. MSG was a great event. The MSM hated every second of it. If it wasn’t Puerto Rico, the MSM would have turned Hulk Hogan, Giuliani ( who shouldn’t have spoke), Melania, the crowd or anybody into a hoax. Trust me on this.
 
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New battleground state polls appearing today in RealClear:

  • Arizona (CNN): Harris +1
  • Nevada (CNN): Trump +1
  • Nevada (Trafalgar Group): Tie
  • North Carolina (WRAL-TV/Survey USA): Tie
  • North Carolina (Trafalgar Group): Trump +3
  • North Caroline (Elon): Tie
  • Wisconsin (InsiderAdvantage): Trump +1
  • Michigan (Emerson): Trump +1
  • Michigan (Susquehanna): Harris +5
  • Pennsylvania (AmGreatness/NSOR): Tie
All but the Susquehanna poll (Michigan) are within the MOE.

So how soon 'til Trump declares victory? Election night? November 6? Tomorrow?
Turns out the polls these days are not data, but models and assumptions. Reliable polling data is impossible to obtain. .

 
Nah. MSG was a great event. The MSM hated every second of it. If it wasn’t Puerto Rico, the MSM would have turned Hulk Hogan, Giuliani ( who shouldn’t have spoke), Melania, the crowd or anybody into a hoax. Trust me on this.
Trump was trending in the right direction then msg and a cycle of racism and the trending abruptly shifted. Perception matters. Was it coincidental. Hard to prove but I doubt it.

As I said two weeks ago trump is his own worst enemy. He’d have been better off hiding in a basement. His events only hurt him. Last week we’ve got racism and shooting politicians as the stories surrounding him. That’s self-inflicted stupidity
 
Trump was trending in the right direction then msg and a cycle of racism and the trending abruptly shifted. Perception matters. Was it coincidental. Hard to prove but I doubt it.

As I said two weeks ago trump is his own worst enemy. He’d have been better off hiding in a basement. His events only hurt him. Last week we’ve got racism and shooting politicians as the stories surrounding him. That’s self-inflicted stupidity
Still waiting for what you’re pointing to that indicates the “abrupt shift”.

You might be the problem McM. Media has filled your head with so much garbage that you’re imagining shifts that aren’t there.

Race is 55-45 Trump like it’s been for a couple weeks.
 
Trump was trending in the right direction then msg and a cycle of racism and the trending abruptly shifted. Perception matters. Was it coincidental. Hard to prove but I doubt it.

As I said two weeks ago trump is his own worst enemy. He’d have been better off hiding in a basement. His events only hurt him. Last week we’ve got racism and shooting politicians as the stories surrounding him. That’s self-inflicted stupidity
It’s not self-inflicted, it’s imposed and imputed. Trump didn’t know the Puerto Rican comedian and had no idea he would attend. You cannot do prevention of these hoaxes, media just makes them up. They are deliberate misinformation. Trump is indeed his own worst enemy, but the garbage hoax, blood bath hoax, day one dictator hoax, the ivf hoax etc are not evidence of that.

The blending of government, education, and information into a giant information/ misinformation conglomerate is a fact of life. Call it Big Information. Resistance is futile. The hoaxes show us that. When Trump is gone there will never be another and Big Information will have its way with you.

George Orwell wrote nonfiction.
 
Good intel Spartans per usual. @dbmhoosier what are we hearing? Widespread cheating?

Are you talking about betting markets?

He doesn't know what he's talking about. And anyone looking at polls at this point is an idiot. We've known forever that they would dumb some voter suppression polls in the last few days. The CNN polls were beyond comical. They completely over sampled whites with a 4 year degree while drastically under sampling whites without. All by design.
 
They BOTH SUCK. I blame the parties for giving us a choice of 2 morons. I wrote-in for Haley.
 
Still waiting for what you’re pointing to that indicates the “abrupt shift”.

You might be the problem McM. Media has filled your head with so much garbage that you’re imagining shifts that aren’t there.

Race is 55-45 Trump like it’s been for a couple weeks.
No. pre msg trump was leading and Harris has regained. Use google. You’re becoming as ate up as dbm. This is one of many.

 
It’s not self-inflicted, it’s imposed and imputed. Trump didn’t know the Puerto Rican comedian and had no idea he would attend. You cannot do prevention of these hoaxes, media just makes them up. They are deliberate misinformation. Trump is indeed his own worst enemy, but the garbage hoax, blood bath hoax, day one dictator hoax, the ivf hoax etc are not evidence of that.

The blending of government, education, and information into a giant information/ misinformation conglomerate is a fact of life. Call it Big Information. Resistance is futile. The hoaxes show us that. When Trump is gone there will never be another and Big Information will have its way with you.

George Orwell wrote nonfiction.
Not knowing he would attend is beyond stupid. I would ask. A normal person would ask. Hey who is speaking. I don’t want any bombs a week before the election. It’s been the lead on every major network
 
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No. pre msg trump was leading and Harris has regained. Use google. You’re becoming as ate up as dbm. This is one of many.

Use the RCP average and Silver. They’re the best aggregators. That times poll would be an outlier. You’re imagining things.
 
I think we’re cooked. Self-inflicted stupidity the week before election. Fing dumb
Biden also had the “Garbage” gaffe last week. And Cuban was saying stupid shit as well.

I don’t thinks any of these things, including MSG, move the needle all that much. But maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Trump gets crush with Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania and that’s the difference.
 
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Not knowing he would attend is beyond stupid. I would ask. A normal person would ask. Hey who is speaking. I don’t want any bombs a week before the election. It’s been the lead on every major network
Sorry, Murt but the Professor is right again. Biden’s comments were 10x worse. The media is always going to produce a hoax. It’s one of the reasons why they win elections.
 
Not one bit of that matters. You don’t provide the opp for msm to run with a narrative. As I said msg was a disastrous unforced error
It’s nothing Murt. The MSM outrage don’t mean sh!t to anyone but the folks voting Kamala anyway.
 
Sorry, Murt but the Professor is right again. Biden’s comments were 10x worse. The media is always going to produce a hoax. It’s one of the reasons why they win elections.
The problem is that I don’t think we have a very bright electorate to say the least. So when JLo is sitting home then all of the sudden crying at a podium over the remarks it matters to casual low info voters. And in a race this close it could be dispositive
 
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The problem is that I don’t think we have a very bright electorate to say the least. So when JLo is sitting home then all of the sudden crying at a podium over the remarks it matters to casual low info voters. And in a race this close it could be dispositive
And JLo once dated Diddy, so we know what a good judge of character she is.
 
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I tend to agree with this. What are the odds that 3-4 swing states actually all end within a point? It could be just as likely that they’re missing an undercurrent (on either side) and this race is less close than it seems.
 
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