Line out of Vegas is +20.5 for the Buckeyes

[Grateful Redbeard]

I don't think that they're coming to Bloomington and beating IU by 3 TD's. I'm a casual gambler and I never bet on IU because I bet with my heart and not my brain. That said, I think I might have to put $100 down on the Hoosiers to cover. What say ya'll?

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

I would take that action.

 

[CC Mac]

I don't think that they're coming to Bloomington and beating IU by 3 TD's. I'm a casual gambler and I never bet on IU because I bet with my heart and not my brain. That said, I think I might have to put $100 down on the Hoosiers to cover. What say ya'll?

I see no scenario where we lose by 3 touchdowns but I have been wrong a time or two

 

[cshartle123]

We won't get torched by three touchdowns. Put a hundred down for me too.

 

[hometownfan]

I was a pretty heavy gambler a few years ago. -20.5 is as close to a guaranteed lock as I have seen in years against a team that we have historically played well against, especially at home lately. That being said, I might get back into the game. However, I do remember that my guaranteed locks generally only hit in the 50%-60% range back in the day. Damn it has to be nice to be the "House".

 

[rcaulfie]

I was guessing the line would be about 14. I'm surprised it is so high, but I bet it goes down....(pun intended!)

 

[YOTHN]

No way IU loses by 20. Good defensive teams don't guarantee wins but they also don't lose games big. Nor did IU last year. I like that the nation is sleeping on us as much as they are. The defense is in its 2nd year under Allen and I don't see OSU getting over 27pts if OSU plays a great game. I also don't see IU being held to under 7pts so I don't see how this line is anything other than a lock.

 

[Bowlmania]

I think the biggest challenge for IU will be establishing the run against an outstanding DL.

 

[td75]

I agree with Bowlmania, it'll be hard for ANY team to run on OSU. All we keep hearing is how they're trotting out a NFL dline.

Debord will have to scheme and find ways to get the ball down field. Wilson used to throw the ball out to the WR directly after the snap and create a one on one matchup which is similar to a rushing play I guess.

OSU lost a lot in their secondary, Rich should be able to light them up a bit through the air. Our two main guys, Westbrook and Cobbs, will need to play great to win the game.

I'm thinking I'll put $100 or $150 on TA and the boys...if I can find a place to bet. Online??

 

[YOTHN]

I agree with Bowlmania, it'll be hard for ANY team to run on OSU. All we keep hearing is how they're trotting out a NFL dline.

Debord will have to scheme and find ways to get the ball down field. Wilson used to throw the ball out to the WR directly after the snap and create a one on one matchup which is similar to a rushing play I guess.

OSU lost a lot in their secondary, Rich should be able to light them up a bit through the air. Our two main guys, Westbrook and Cobbs, will need to play great to win the game.

I'm thinking I'll put $100 or $150 on TA and the boys...if I can find a place to bet. Online??

I hear Vegas has some gambling hot spots....?

 

[D_C_B]

I'd take you guys all day getting 20. And I don't know what the odds to win are, but I'd be tempted to bet on the upset. Like I said in the Wilson thread, lots of indicators are pointing to OSU stumbling into a hornets' nest.

 

[turney333]

No way IU loses by 20. Good defensive teams don't guarantee wins but they also don't lose games big. Nor did IU last year. I like that the nation is sleeping on us as much as they are. The defense is in its 2nd year under Allen and I don't see OSU getting over 27pts if OSU plays a great game. I also don't see IU being held to under 7pts so I don't see how this line is anything other than a lock.

Well IU did lose by 21 last year, and the defense even played really well.

IU fumbled on the 9, had a kickoff returned to the 6, and went for it on 4th down on the 30 late in the game and didn't convert. That directly set up 21 OSU points.

I'm pretty optimistic that IU will hold their own and make it competitive for most of the game, but a few mistakes, especially late, could easily make it a 3 TD game regardless of how the defense plays.

Essentially, if you could bet on what the score would be after 3.5 quarters, then 20.5 would be a lock

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Done...but just for fun.

 

[YOTHN]

Well IU did lose by 21 last year, and the defense even played really well.

IU fumbled on the 9, had a kickoff returned to the 6, and went for it on 4th down on the 30 late in the game and didn't convert. That directly set up 21 OSU points.

I'm pretty optimistic that IU will hold their own and make it competitive for most of the game, but a few mistakes, especially late, could easily make it a 3 TD game regardless of how the defense plays.

Essentially, if you could bet on what the score would be after 3.5 quarters, then 20.5 would be a lock

No I get that and I'm not saying we'll be without flaws but OSU lost a lot of their top talent while IU retained more than it lost. OSU returns 15 "starters" to IU's 14 but that stat is incredibly flawed. Simmie Cobbs is a starter but isn't counted as one. J-Shun Harris. Andre Brown. Let alone guys like Chase Dutra who started for a couple years and is on the 2 deep but not starting. I mean IU returns guys who were starters in prior years who have been out due to injury or who have been beat out by younger guys. We have the most returning minutes played in the country. That alone explains the kind of depth IU has. Anything can happen but I truly don't see any way IU loses by 20pts. Being that I see IU winning this game, that might explain why I don't see 20 as a possibility. ha *adjusts his crimson colored shades*

 

[iuhoosierstildeath]

IU has covered the spread every single year against OSU since 2011.

 

[YOTHN]

IU has covered the spread every single year against OSU since 2011.

What he said...

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

IU has covered the spread every single year against OSU since 2011.

I love that little nugget. Also, in the last 4 years IU has only lost by more than 10 points once. To PSU last year and that was on a fumble return for a TD as IU was driving for the game winning TD. Lagow got strip/sacked. I'm liking this bet more and more.

 

[NewYorkBuck]

However, I do remember that my guaranteed locks generally only hit in the 50%-60% range back in the day. Damn it has to be nice to be the "House".

"Only the 50%-60% range?"

Well, since covering the vig is 52.3% and the greatest sports gambler of our time (B Walters) hits at a 57% rate, Id say quoting a 50-60% range is quite useless information. You consistently beat just that 52.3%, you are in rarifieid air. You do anywhere near 55%, and expect people to bang down your door for your picks. There are truly only a few guys in the world who can do that over the long haul.

 

[fpeaugh]

OSU by 30+. Wilson will run the score up too. Don't take the bait.

 

[Grateful Redbeard]

OSU by 30+. Wilson will run the score up too. Don't take the bait.

I see you're totally sucking in multiple threads. Well done.

 

[RBB89]

OSU by 30+. Wilson will run the score up too. Don't take the bait.

LOL fortunately all of your predictions are hilariously wrong. Didn't you rip on Wilson when he was here? You realize he's running Urban's offense, right? Like they've never had good talent/coaching before? And that we have a functioning defense now that finished 31st nationally last year and has been predicted by multiple publications to be in the top 25 this year? Not that they won't have a very good offense, but what exactly is it, specifically, that you think they're going to throw at us that we've never seen before? It's Urban's offense.

The last two games in Bloomington have been 52-49 and 34-27. If they didn't run it up on defenses ranked in the 120s, they sure as hell aren't running it up now. I mean, Ohio State has literally scored 50 or more points against us one time since 1984, and that was the game I mentioned above that they won by three.

God we have some dumb fans.

 

[RBB89]

I see you're totally sucking in multiple threads. Well done.

The guy seems to legitimately think that Wilson is the head coach over there. What is exactly is it that he thinks they're going to throw at us that we've never seen before?

 

[CC Mac]

OSU by 30+. Wilson will run the score up too. Don't take the bait.

Given the current playoff system it is almost mandatory that teams try to run up the scores every game.
You don't think they tried to run it up on us the previous 5+ years?
Trying to and actually doing it are two different things.i just don't see any way they do this year either.

 

[FiddlerV]

Early season games are a crap shoot. There is no telling what will happen. Also, don't be over confident...Vegas betting lines are set by very smart people.

 

[YOTHN]

OSU by 30+. Wilson will run the score up too. Don't take the bait.

lol OSU by 30 or more!?

 

[Bowlmania]

lol OSU by 30 or more!?

It was a thoughtless post by someone interested in stirring the pot (apparently Ewezrfan isn't the only one), and who thinks we're still a "no D" team. My concern with this game centers around our ability to run the football and move the chains. As good as our D is, we can't be on the short end of a lopsided TOP situation and still have a chance to win. In the same vein, while we have an enormously talented stable of receivers, if we have to throw the ball every down, we're in trouble.

Here's what I think is key, and what I'll be looking for. If we see IU cranking out some yards on the ground in the first quarter against one of the best DLs in college football, this could be a very interesting game. If, on the other hand, we're repeatedly getting stuffed at the LOS, it could be a long night. No way we lose by 30+, though.

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

I'm not going to say it can't happen, especially in the first game which is very unpredictable. I am optimistic that it will be much better and it would not shock me if it was that much the other way.

 

[YOTHN]

It was a thoughtless post by someone interested in stirring the pot (apparently Ewezrfan isn't the only one), and who thinks we're still a "no D" team. My concern with this game centers around our ability to run the football and move the chains. As good as our D is, we can't be on the short end of a lopsided TOP situation and still have a chance to win. In the same vein, while we have an enormously talented stable of receivers, if we have to throw the ball every down, we're in trouble.

Here's what I think is key, and what I'll be looking for. If we see IU cranking out some yards on the ground in the first quarter against one of the best DLs in college football, this could be a very interesting game. If, on the other hand, we're repeatedly getting stuffed at the LOS, it could be a long night. No way we lose by 30+, though.

How can someone say this is a "no D" team?! This team has LOTS of D and I know my D's!!!!!

Waaaaaaait.....maybe I should reconsider that wording....

My point is, I would put this defense up against most any others. The talent is top notch. I find it incredibly hard to believe that OSU will score 30 pts against IU this year let alone beat them by 30.

 

[turney333]

Early season games are a crap shoot. There is no telling what will happen. Also, don't be over confident...Vegas betting lines are set by very smart people.

Yes, betting lines are set by very smart people - that understand the whims of a generally somewhat dumb group of people that are betting. A betting line isn't an educated prediction of the game, but an educated prediction of what it will take to get a 50-50 split on bets. Essentially, betting lines aren't based on the game itself, but what Vegas thinks bettors on aggregate perceive the game to be.

"Locks" or highly favorable bets don't occur because Vegas got it wrong, but because there is an overzealous group of bettors on one side that Vegas is trying to offset, which in this case is OSU fans that haven't been betting on anything in recent months.

 

[Ewezrfan1]

How can someone say this is a "no D" team?! This team has LOTS of D and I know my D's!!!!!

Waaaaaaait.....maybe I should reconsider that wording....

My point is, I would put this defense up against most any others. The talent is top notch. I find it incredibly hard to believe that OSU will score 30 pts against IU this year let alone beat them by 30.

Lol

 

[fpeaugh]

A lot of fans in here who think they're smarter than Vegas line setters. And people wonder how bookies make so much money.

For the record I hope I'm dead wrong. I've been a diehard IUFB fan for decades.

 

[fpeaugh]

The guy seems to legitimately think that Wilson is the head coach over there. What is exactly is it that he thinks they're going to throw at us that we've never seen before?

Every coach for about a decade has known exactly what Alabama is going to throw at them. How many have been able to stop it?

And I ripped on Glass for making the ridiculous change firing Wilson. I fear that mistake is going to haunt us for years.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Yes, betting lines are set by very smart people - that understand the whims of a generally somewhat dumb group of people that are betting. A betting line isn't an educated prediction of the game, but an educated prediction of what it will take to get a 50-50 split on bets. Essentially, betting lines aren't based on the game itself, but what Vegas thinks bettors on aggregate perceive the game to be.

"Locks" or highly favorable bets don't occur because Vegas got it wrong, but because there is an overzealous group of bettors on one side that Vegas is trying to offset, which in this case is OSU fans that haven't been betting on anything in recent months.

The vast majority of the wagering public doesn't understand this.

 

[Bowlmania]

A lot of fans in here who think they're smarter than Vegas line setters. And people wonder how bookies make so much money.

For the record I hope I'm dead wrong. I've been a diehard IUFB fan for decades.

It's the first game of the season. The Vegas guys don't have current data to work with so, in terms of reliability, this is nothing like a line later in the season. But wait, what am I missing? The Vegas line is 20.5 and you're saying OSU by 30+. Makes no sense, and doesn't sound like the kind of call a fan of the dog would make. Do you really hope you're dead wrong, or are pissed at IU for firing Wilson?

 

[YOTHN]

A lot of fans in here who think they're smarter than Vegas line setters. And people wonder how bookies make so much money.

For the record I hope I'm dead wrong. I've been a diehard IUFB fan for decades.

Well, any IU fan who bet against Vegas the last 4-5 years came away "smarter than Vegas line setters"....sooooo

 

[turney333]

It's the first game of the season. The Vegas guys don't have current data to work with so, in terms of reliability, this is nothing like a line later in the season. But wait, what am I missing? The Vegas line is 20.5 and you're saying OSU by 30+. Makes no sense, and doesn't sound like the kind of call a fan of the dog would make. Do you really hope you're dead wrong, or are pissed at IU for firing Wilson?

Yep, the current line doesn't mean Vegas is anticipating that OSU wins by 20, it means they are anticipating that a large contingent of people think OSU is going win by 30+ like fpeaugh and they need to offset those bets by individuals that are bit more sane.

Let's say that a more realistic 14.5 spread is about 50-50 on actual game outcome, but under those circumstances OSU would get 60-70% of the bets, and the places in Vegas would lose money if OSU wins by 15 or more.

Vegas is concerned with 2 things, bringing the most total bet money and being able to offset payouts. Anticipated outcome of the game is almost inconsequential to them. The line could be close final outcome, but that assumes on aggregate people are betting rationally - which is probably rarely the case.

Vegas sets lines close to what they think will get 50-50 split on the money bet and will then lean a couple percentage point one way or the other to drive up total bets.

 

[fpeaugh]

It's the first game of the season. The Vegas guys don't have current data to work with so, in terms of reliability, this is nothing like a line later in the season. But wait, what am I missing? The Vegas line is 20.5 and you're saying OSU by 30+. Makes no sense, and doesn't sound like the kind of call a fan of the dog would make. Do you really hope you're dead wrong, or are pissed at IU for firing Wilson?

Well then go ahead and load up on all this free money you think is available. I'm saying OSU covers fairly easily. I've seen this dance before. Does it really matter if they cover at 21 or 30? Those two numbers aren't far off.

But I do sincerely hope I'm wrong and IU wins. I think it was completely foolish how Glass ran Wilson off but I'm totally open to being proven wrong. The only purpose of my post was to prevent people from getting sucked into taking the Vegas bait they have dangling out there.

 

[turney333]

Well then go ahead and load up on all this free money you think is available. I'm saying OSU covers fairly easily. I've seen this dance before. Does it really matter if they cover at 21 or 30? Those two numbers aren't far off.

But I do sincerely hope I'm wrong and IU wins. I think it was completely foolish how Glass ran Wilson off but I'm totally open to being proven wrong. The only purpose of my post was to prevent people from getting sucked into taking the Vegas bait they have dangling out there.

Which dance have you seen before? The one where IU has covered the spread against OSU every year since 2011?

I think you are overestimating the "Wilson vendetta" factor in this game. It assumes that coaches aren't already highly motivated for most every game. Plus things like defense, special teams, and pulling starters which play a big role in blowouts are completely out of Wilson's control.

 

[fkfootball]

Firing Wilson will haunt us? Lol. He wasn't that impressive.

 

[Ewezrfan1]

Firing Wilson will haunt us? Lol. He wasn't that impressive.

If the early returns in recruiting are any indication, yes it will.