Coach K etc are the exceptions! For every Coach K, Bennett or Barnes, who had bad starts for two seasons or more but turned out to be great later, there are definitely more Billy Gillespie, matt Doherty, Tommy Amaker.... You don't hear from them anymore because many of them are already out of coaching. The numbers won't be on your favor.
Actually, doing well right off the bat is the exception.
Of the 21 power conference teams with a 6 seed or better, only 6 coaches reached the NCAA tournament each of their first 2 season at that school: Roy Williams, Calipari, Bill Self, Greg Gard, Bruce Webber, and Steve Prohm. Only Williams/Calipari did so with a team that missed the NCAA tournament the year prior
11 of 21 missed the tournament both their first two seasons
Then you have John Beilein who missed the tournament his first year, made the tournament his second, then missed it his third
You also have Will Wade who missed the tournament his first year, and then wound up in an FBI investigation in year 2
Also, while Painter technically made the tournament his “2nd” year, it was his 3rd year with the program having been named HC in waiting for a year.
Mike Krzyzewski
1st Season at Duke: 17-13 (NIT)
2nd season at Duke: 10-17 (no post season)
Tom Izzo
1st Season at MSU: 16-16 (NIT)
2nd season at MSU: 17-12 (NIT)
Tony Bennett
1st Season at UVA: 15-16 (no post season)
2nd Season at UVA: 16-15 (no post season)
Rick Barnes
1st Season at Tenn: 15-19 (no post season)
2nd Season at Tenn:16-16 (no post season)
Buzz Williams
1st Season at VT: 11-22 (no post season)
2nd Season at VT: 20-15 (NIT)
Leonard Hamilton
1st Season at FSU: 14-15 (no post season)
2nd Season at FSU: 19-14 (NIT)
Steve Wojciechowski
1st Season at Marquette: 13-19 (no post season)
2nd Season at Marquette: 20-13 (no post season)
Bruce Pearl
1st Season at Auburn: 15-20 (no post season)
2nd Season at Auburn: 11-20 (no post season)
Ben Howland
1st Season at Miss St: 14-17 (no post season)
2nd Season at Miss St: 16-16 (no post season)
Mark Turgeon
1st Season at Maryland: 17-15 (no post season)
2nd Season at Maryland: 20-11 (NIT)
Jay Wright
1st Season at Villanova: 19-13 (NIT)
2nd Season at Villanova: 15-15 (NIT)
Honorable Mention
Will Wade
1st Season at LSU: 18-15 (NIT)
2nd Season at LSU: Under FBI investigation
John Beilein
1st Season at UM: 10-22 (no post season)
3rd season at UM: 15-17 (no post season)
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