Just a guess...Does anyone think it won't be Dusty? He'll get a Brad-similar offer and I think he wants it. He knows he can get it done in the Big Ten now. He may not be everyone's first choice but I think he's in everyone's top 3.
He owes a 1.5m signing bonus back if he resigns before April 1 but has the low buy out. So first week of April.
Then we can switch the debate to roster speculation. Wolf? Will Mullins decommit and stay home? Can Dustys staff resurrect any of our existing players?
I think money won't end up being the deciding factor for May. Michigan will push hard to keep him, and they'll be competitive with IU, or anyone else, pay wise.
Obviously no idea if May was ever talked with last year at this time...and whether he was, or wasn't, how he feels about how all that went. It seems like the narrative here is that the board assumes he felt "spurned"...but technically, IU never had a job opening. Maybe he doesn't feel that way? That'd be an important part of the puzzle.
Along those lines, and even if he hasn't felt that way...I think for someone like May, feeling like he's coming in to a welcoming, fully on board by all involved, modern, forward thinking organization...could be what pushes him to jump to IU, or pushes him to stay at Michigan. If he doesn't like the vibe from guys like Quinn, Big Donors, or just the overall feel inside the building... Like I said, Michigan will have a very attractive package for him to consider after the season he's put together.
I think this same narrative probably plays out for all the other more proven P4 guys.