How long until China invades Taiwan?

[Hoopsdoc1978]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-05-10/china-wants-to-take-taiwan-peacefully-but-is-preparing-militarily-u-s-intelligence-officials?context=amp

"It's our view that they (the Chinese) are working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan over our intervention," Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

I’m guessing not long. Just a matter of time, imo.

 

[Crayfish57]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-05-10/china-wants-to-take-taiwan-peacefully-but-is-preparing-militarily-u-s-intelligence-officials?context=amp

"It's our view that they (the Chinese) are working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan over our intervention," Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

I’m guessing not long. Just a matter of time, imo.

They know Biden won't do anything

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

They know Biden won't do anything

I’m not sure Trump would have been any better, but they sure as hell don’t think much of Biden. The “over our intervention” part is what was interesting to me.

 

[IUCrazy2]

I’m not sure Trump would have been any better, but they sure as hell don’t think much of Biden. The “over our intervention” part is what was interesting to me.

They have to be able to pull off the amphibious invasion. Drones and anti shipping missiles to Taiwan would make that difficult.

 

[larsIU]

They have to be able to pull off the amphibious invasion. Drones and anti shipping missiles to Taiwan would make that difficult.

Yeah, good luck traversing 100 miles of water with all the anti-ship missles pointed at you and nowhere to hide. It would be murderous. China would eventually win but at what cost?

 

[mrhighlife]

The Russians have shown how great Chinese weapons are. I say ahead China. Have at it.

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

The Russians have shown how great Chinese weapons are. I say ahead China. Have at it.

It would be a catastrophe for the global economy I would think.

 

[bawlmer]

Yeah, good luck traversing 100 miles of water with all the anti-ship missles pointed at you and nowhere to hide. It would be murderous. China would eventually win but at what cost?

This^^

China didn't miss noticing the unified economic penalties Russia faced.

 

[bub-rub]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-05-10/china-wants-to-take-taiwan-peacefully-but-is-preparing-militarily-u-s-intelligence-officials?context=amp

"It's our view that they (the Chinese) are working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan over our intervention," Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

I’m guessing not long. Just a matter of time, imo.

IMO China, unlike Russia, is way too dependent on far away shipping routes they currently have no hope of defending to pull this off at this time. If/ when China tries for Taiwan, it will be after a major shift in sea power. Right now and until then it will just be more bluffs for internal consumption. But still scary shit.

 

[outside shooter]

China has gotten really good very fast at money-making (dare we say, capitalism?) and is unlikely to take the economic hit that such an invasion would prompt.

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

China has gotten really good very fast at money-making (dare we say, capitalism?) and is unlikely to take the economic hit that such an invasion would prompt.

People said that about Russia. Then they said the sanctions will stop them. And here we are.

 

[larsIU]

This^^

China didn't miss noticing the unified economic penalties Russia faced.

Yeah, there's that too. Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have severely dampened China's desire to take Taiwan via military means

 

[mrhighlife]

Yeah, there's that too. Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have severely dampened China's desire to take Taiwan via military means

Chinas best bet is play the long game. Infiltrate there social media with subtle pro Chinese propaganda. Make "friends" with them politically over several years if not decades. Slowly gaining influence. There is literally no reason to just try and take by force any country in todays digital information age. Destroy the set norms and cultures from within and then just slide right in to fill the void.

I mean they could try and invade only to see the majority of there navy taken out. Then what? Nukes? Why take over an area if its just a wasteland?

 

[bub-rub]

People said that about Russia. Then they said the sanctions will stop them. And here we are.

russia is better at taking those hits. They don’t need as much international integration to keep on trucking. China needs it bad. Maybe more than anyone.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

They know Biden won't do anything

I’m not sure Trump would have been any better, but they sure as hell don’t think much of Biden. The “over our intervention” part is what was interesting to me.

I think you guys are mistaking long term planning for short. This has nothing to do with the president, and really isn't even remarkable at all. China wants Taiwan, and they want to develop to the point militarily that the USA can't prevent them from taking it. I mean, stop the presses, really. Why would you expect China to do anything other than that?

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

I think you guys are mistaking long term planning for short. This has nothing to do with the president, and really isn't even remarkable at all. China wants Taiwan, and they want to develop to the point militarily that the USA can't prevent them from taking it. I mean, stop the presses, really. Why would you expect China to do anything other than that?

BDS

 

[sglowrider]

It would be a catastrophe for the global economy I would think.

Its a red herring. There is no way China would invade Taiwan at the costs of destroying half of Taiwan. What's the point then?

Besides, there is so much Taiwanese investments in China itself. And Taiwanese working in China -- I have met quite a few of them.

Besides, the fact that they know they cant do -- is precisely why they do so much of the feints.

Its always going to be about economics/$$ first with China. They arent rich enough to think about geopolitics yet.

The goal is to ensure that the economy grows at a 6-7% rate to ensure that there are several million jobs created to support the new kids coming into the workforce annually. (You need to know the history of China too understand their priorities -- its not based on 4yrs cycles.)

Other than the indigenous people of Taiwan (2.42%), the bulk of the people in Taiwan is related to the folks on the opposite side of the Straits of Taiwan.

Folks of southern China migrated to Taiwan a few centuries ago. And when the KMT lost then they all ran off to Taiwan.
Hell, I speak the same dialect/language as the folks in Taiwan and in Fujian province. It's pretty much ethnically Chinese.

A moot point but at the end of the day, will the US actually go to war with China over Taiwan?

I doubt it.

 

[sglowrider]

I think you guys are mistaking long term planning for short. This has nothing to do with the president, and really isn't even remarkable at all. China wants Taiwan, and they want to develop to the point militarily that the USA can't prevent them from taking it. I mean, stop the presses, really. Why would you expect China to do anything other than that?

Or you can look at it from China's perspective -- they are the 2nd largest economy in the world with a 2nd rate military force.

Wouldn't you expect the leaders to upgrade and match their economic standings with the right military competency to match their economic status? Or protect their interests?

Besides, they have learnt from the US that a best in the class military helps ensure their global hegemony.

FYI. In the Chinese culture, coopetition is more of a norm. They prefer not to have the gladiatorial, winner takes all mindset. All about social harmony and stability.

 

[DANC]

They have to be able to pull off the amphibious invasion. Drones and anti shipping missiles to Taiwan would make that difficult.

If there's one thing we've learned from Ukraine, it's that militaries strong on paper aren't always that great in the field.

Especially ones that haven't seen a single day of combat.

 

[sglowrider]

If there's one thing we've learned from Ukraine, it's that militaries strong on paper aren't always that great in the field.

Especially ones that haven't seen a single day of combat.

If us dummies here have figured this out I am sure the leadership of China knows it too.

Its feints by China. No point getting all worked up for nothing. I am more concerned about whether we can get the 6th Banner than the likelihood of Taiwan being invaded.

If anything the US and China should have some sort of tacit agreement -- where China's economic hinterland or sphere of influence will be Asia and Africa and the US has Europe.

 

[bub-rub]

If us dummies here have figured this out I am sure the leadership of China knows it too.

Its feints by China. No point getting all worked up for nothing. I am more concerned about whether we can get the 6th Banner than the likelihood of Taiwan being invaded.

If anything the US and China should have some sort of tacit agreement -- where China's economic hinterland or sphere of influence will be Asia and Africa and the US has Europe.

respecting spheres of influence is an idea I’ve thought about a lot but the US is used having significant influence everywhere always. Not sure what humbling experience or great offer would put us in an equitable mood.

 

[bub-rub]

Its a red herring. There is no way China would invade Taiwan at the costs of destroying half of Taiwan. What's the point then?

Besides, there is so much Taiwanese investments in China itself. And Taiwanese working in China -- I have met quite a few of them.

Besides, the fact that they know they cant do -- is precisely why they do so much of the feints.

Its always going to be about economics/$$ first with China. They arent rich enough to think about geopolitics yet.

The goal is to ensure that the economy grows at a 6-7% rate to ensure that there are several million jobs created to support the new kids coming into the workforce annually. (You need to know the history of China too understand their priorities -- its not based on 4yrs cycles.)

Other than the indigenous people of Taiwan (2.42%), the bulk of the people in Taiwan is related to the folks on the opposite side of the Straits of Taiwan.

Folks of southern China migrated to Taiwan a few centuries ago. And when the KMT lost then they all ran off to Taiwan.
Hell, I speak the same dialect/language as the folks in Taiwan and in Fujian province. It's pretty much ethnically Chinese.

A moot point but at the end of the day, will the US actually go to war with China over Taiwan?

I doubt it.

Good stuff! I do disagree on the last point. I think the US would strike immediately if China made a move against Taiwan. The US has fewer moves and less to lose should Ukraine go away and not come back. It was always a “nice to have” and maybe wasn’t realistic to think Ukraine would lean west for very long anyway. If it turns out it was just a way to trip up Russia, so be it. We’ll see.

Giving up Taiwan would mean the US Navy has lost worldwide blue water dominance and that, in the minds of US foreign policy makers, can never ever ever ever happen. Our whole economic system and global power structure is predicated on the US Navy’s ability to find, track, and sink any enemy ship it wants in any part of the world. And that’s not just me being dramatic. Lol. The US dollar would falter if the US lost naval primacy because the perception that we can pay our debt also vanishes in that case. The almost set in stone idea that the US homeland cannot be invaded then starts to be called into question and foreign investment likely erodes because of it.

i totally agree that we’re not likely to see this in our lifetimes but China moving on Taiwan scares me 1000 times more than almost anything Russia can do. This is the one scenario where I could see us shooting nukes first. That’s how closely tied ocean dominance/ control of shipping lanes is to our identity as a superpower.

 

[DANC]

If us dummies here have figured this out I am sure the leadership of China knows it too.

Its feints by China. No point getting all worked up for nothing. I am more concerned about whether we can get the 6th Banner than the likelihood of Taiwan being invaded.

If anything the US and China should have some sort of tacit agreement -- where China's economic hinterland or sphere of influence will be Asia and Africa and the US has Europe.

I would agree if it was only 'influence' China was interested in.

But they're more into imposing their control over that area. Even in their own country, the Uighars are persecuted, reminiscent of the gulags and concentration camps.

But I agree they are puffing themselves up more for show than in actual preparation for invasion.

 

[TomEric4756]

I don’t think the Chinese will consider doing anything until the Shanghai city and port are fully open again.

The last involved action the Chinese saw was their invasion of North Korea in support of (grandfather) Kim.
(MacAuthur routed the North Koreans after Inchon, first.)

They sent waves and waves of infantry, toward US and UN troops. (Which is what Stalin did to stop the Wehrmacht until the T34 arrived with US trucks, and massed artillery became available).

This was a land invasion, and not an amphibious landing, or air assault.

The Russians showed in Ukraine that ill conceived amphibious landings and air assaults can fail spectacularly. The US Marines practice amphibious operations regularly.

One of the other Ukrainian lessons is pilot training matters — low combat readiness leads to rapid losses In contested airspaces.

 

[bub-rub]

I don’t think the Chinese will consider doing anything until the Shanghai city and port are fully open again.

The last involved action the Chinese saw was their invasion of North Korea in support of (grandfather) Kim.
(MacAuthur routed the North Koreans after Inchon, first.)

They sent waves and waves of infantry, toward US and UN troops. (Which is what Stalin did to stop the Wehrmacht until the T34 arrived with US trucks, and massed artillery became available).

This was a land invasion, and not an amphibious landing, or air assault.

The Russians showed in Ukraine that ill conceived amphibious landings and air assaults can fail spectacularly. The US Marines practice amphibious operations regularly.

One of the other Ukrainian lessons is pilot training matters — low combat readiness leads to rapid losses In contested airspaces.

China did send 200kish troops into Vietnam by land in the late 70s after the north beat us. Having maybe learned something from us, they didn’t stay long but still lost a crap ton of soldiers. (North Vietnam was clearly the Wu Tang Clan of their time. Lol)

good point about amphibious assaults. They have no history of doing it or succeeding at it. Totally unproven doctrine.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

IMO China, unlike Russia, is way too dependent on far away shipping routes they currently have no hope of defending to pull this off at this time. If/ when China tries for Taiwan, it will be after a major shift in sea power. Right now and until then it will just be more bluffs for internal consumption. But still scary shit.

Are you assuming our Navy would defend Taiwan?

Edit...I see that you do assume so....

 

[bub-rub]

Are you assuming our Navy would defend Taiwan?

Yes, I think they would. The US military has more folks in Japan and S Korea than all of Europe.

 

[Spartans9312]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-05-10/china-wants-to-take-taiwan-peacefully-but-is-preparing-militarily-u-s-intelligence-officials?context=amp

"It's our view that they (the Chinese) are working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan over our intervention," Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

I’m guessing not long. Just a matter of time, imo.

MSN

All Biden does is "misspeak" when its politically damaging...

It's a clown show thats caused inflation to get worse and prompted a war in Ukraine to spin out of control affecting food supply chains globally.

 

[DANC]

MSN

All Biden does is "misspeak" when its politically damaging...

It's a clown show thats caused inflation to get worse and prompted a war in Ukraine to spin out of control affecting food supply chains globally.

Who was it who posted that Biden is keeping us out of WWIII?

 

[bub-rub]

MSN

All Biden does is "misspeak" when its politically damaging...

It's a clown show thats caused inflation to get worse and prompted a war in Ukraine to spin out of control affecting food supply chains globally.

everyone — mostly importantly the Chinese — knows the US would counter an invasion of Taiwan. It changes nothing when the dope says this like it changed nothing when the last dope was frenemies w kim jong-un. It causes a minor diplomatic ripple and not much more

 

[DANC]

everyone — mostly importantly the Chinese — knows the US would counter an invasion of Taiwan. It changes nothing when the dope says this like it changed nothing when the last dope was frenemies w kim jong-un. It causes a minor diplomatic ripple and not much more

N. Korea quit lobbing missiles under the 'last dope'. He's threatening nuclear testing again under this dope.

Which would you rather have?

 

[Bowlmania]

N. Korea quit lobbing missiles under the 'last dope'. He's threatening nuclear testing again under this dope.

Which would you rather have?

It's amazing. One would think you'd be right about something - - at least once in a while. You continue to defy the law of averages.

Trump played down North Korea's string of missile tests. That could embolden Kim

U.S. President Donald Trump plays down North Korea's third missile launch in about a week, saying that "short-range missiles" are "very standard."

www.cnbc.com

North Korea Tests More Missiles, Violating Pledge to Trump

Pyongyang has conducted nine missile launches since May

www.voanews.com

North Korea Missile Tests, ‘Very Standard’ to Trump, Show Signs of Advancing Arsenal (Published 2019)

American intelligence officials and outside experts say that Kim Jong-un is capitalizing on President Trump’s downplaying of his weapons testing to significantly improve the North’s arsenal.

www.nytimes.com

 

[DANC]

It's amazing. One would think you'd be right about something - - at least once in a while. You continue to defy the law of averages.

Trump played down North Korea's string of missile tests. That could embolden Kim

U.S. President Donald Trump plays down North Korea's third missile launch in about a week, saying that "short-range missiles" are "very standard."

www.cnbc.com

North Korea Tests More Missiles, Violating Pledge to Trump

Pyongyang has conducted nine missile launches since May

www.voanews.com

North Korea Missile Tests, ‘Very Standard’ to Trump, Show Signs of Advancing Arsenal (Published 2019)

American intelligence officials and outside experts say that Kim Jong-un is capitalizing on President Trump’s downplaying of his weapons testing to significantly improve the North’s arsenal.

www.nytimes.com

Short-range missiles, going less than 250 miles.

You'd think you'd recognize the difference between that and sending them over Japan, but your knowledge of geography is lacking.

 

[outside shooter]

Biden...prompted a war in Ukraine to spin out of control

huh?

 

[Bowlmania]

Short-range missiles, going less than 250 miles.

You'd think you'd recognize the difference between that and sending them over Japan, but your knowledge of geography is lacking.

In Post 31, you claimed "North Korea quit lobbing missiles under the last dope." That statement was patently false. Now, in a classic goalpost move, you claim, well, it was only short-range missiles. That, too, is patently false. Kim launched at least one ICBM traveling about 1000 km during the last dope's presidency. Two strikes, dank. One more and you're out. Actually you were out a long time ago.

 

[IUCrazy2]

Drones, antishipping missiles, and anti air defenses should be pumped into Taiwan. The best way to win an invasion across the straits is for it to never occur in the first place.

Amphibious landings are extremely difficult to pull off. They are even more difficult when your opponent has advance notice they are coming. The U.S. and Taiwan will see the build up before the launch. I would have our subs in those straits on the regular and I would have Taiwan bristling with missiles. Kill the landing marines on their boats and taking the island becomes very difficult.

 

[DANC]

In Post 31, you claimed "North Korea quit lobbing missiles under the last dope." That statement was patently false. Now, in a classic goalpost move, you claim, well, it was only short-range missiles. That, too, is patently false. Kim launched at least one ICBM traveling about 1000 km during the last dope's presidency. Two strikes, dank. One more and you're out. Actually you were out a long time ago.

 

[DANC]

Drones, antishipping missiles, and anti air defenses should be pumped into Taiwan. The best way to win an invasion across the straits is for it to never occur in the first place.

Amphibious landings are extremely difficult to pull off. They are even more difficult when your opponent has advance notice they are coming. The U.S. and Taiwan will see the build up before the launch. I would have our subs in those straits on the regular and I would have Taiwan bristling with missiles. Kill the landing marines on their boats and taking the island becomes very difficult.

Even Hitler didn't attempt crossing the English Channel, which is only 21 miles across.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Drones, antishipping missiles, and anti air defenses should be pumped into Taiwan. The best way to win an invasion across the straits is for it to never occur in the first place.

Amphibious landings are extremely difficult to pull off. They are even more difficult when your opponent has advance notice they are coming. The U.S. and Taiwan will see the build up before the launch. I would have our subs in those straits on the regular and I would have Taiwan bristling with missiles. Kill the landing marines on their boats and taking the island becomes very difficult.

They have an aggressive anti-ship plan. 400 of our Harpoons in addition to their own systems.

Taiwan Unveils Two-Phase Anti-Ship Missile Deployment Plan

Taiwan plans to establish anti-ship missile squadrons across the territory against a potential Chinese navy invasion.

www.google.com

 

[DANC]

They have an aggressive anti-ship plan. 400 of our Harpoons in addition to their own systems.

Taiwan Unveils Two-Phase Anti-Ship Missile Deployment Plan

Taiwan plans to establish anti-ship missile squadrons across the territory against a potential Chinese navy invasion.

www.google.com

Yeah, I'm thinking Taiwan has plenty of technical expertise to develop much of what they need.