How bout that stock market?
- Thread starter zeke4ahs
- Start date
Again I think you answered something other than the topic.
When home prices drastically fall (for any reason) and people become so totally “fixed in place with no mobility” because they can’t sell without a huge loss (no equity and no 6 figure cash reserves), what happens to the financial market?
Not that much, but still much more than it takes to get you to “party” with Pete and Chastsen Bootygang
When my wife ran her United Way charity, providing medical equipment and home modifications to the disabled, she had a number of clients in Bloomington's high end areas on the SE side. Mostly widows with a nice house, nice car, no income other than SS, and no savings.
The only way to do it is to have a handle on your fixed costs and an idea of what the variable input costs will be, then look at what the yields have been on similar ground and what the market expectations are.
The larger the operation, the lower your fixed costs/acre as you spread it across the additional ground you're renting, assuming the extra ground doesn't require additional capital for a second combine to get it all done in the season's window, for example. You need to lock in some % of all your inputs and hope for the best when it comes to weather and historical yields on similar ground. Then you get into the idea of hedging by selling a % of your potential crop at a future guaranteed price. What you don't want to do is sell too little on a future contract and leave money on the table, or sell more than you're able to deliver and get caught buying at a higher price to meet your lower-priced contract commitment.
One reason some of these cash rent prices can get so out of whack is that you have large entities trying to lower their fixed cost/acre because they've maybe lost ground from previous seasons or have had to invest more capital to service the same ground or additional ground they bought. The landowner has an expectation of a return on their asset and will drive the rents higher as a result.
I'm sure that's full of typos, but you get the idea.
It depends. You would need to provide more information. If it is people wanting to leave their homes because financial difficulty and the homes are over mortgaged, then I would gather there would be a negative impact. If it is people moving because they want to downsize, but can't because of dropping property values, then there may not be a negative impact.
I have no doubt TODAY, that there is a significant amount of debt in a ton of homes with multiple mortgages that if sold, would make a serious impact. But falling prices alone aren't the cause of losses. It is only when you try to sell and everyone gets mucked about.
I have a 3200 square foot home on 1 1/2 acres with a 1000 square foot poll barn. I have about 260,000 in the entire thing, had a guy call me last week asking if I wanted to sell I told him I would take 800k.
Homes around me are selling for 800k to 1 million and they look like houses that use to cost 300-400k 15 years ago. Bubble has to burst at some point, same with cars. My wife just bought the 2024 Loaded Expedition like having a mortgage payment.
I don't know, but the answer could be that a lot of the land is being purchased solely as a safe investment with a very small return and the expectation of an appreciation in value (i.e., the gain when they ultimately sell the land). Perhaps most people aren't buying the farmland because they want to farm it themselves. For the non-farming land buyers, the rents just give them a very small, and relatively safe, return.
In a weird way, it seems slightly similar to buying a professional sports team. The investment value comes when you sell the team - not from annual revenues and profits (which sometimes are negative).
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Yep. It’s the monetization of real estate. It’s one of many reasons I hope Bitcoin succeeds. Land should be worth its utility value.
Farm land prices have no relationship to economics. Right now it’s simply folks buying because they want it and either have the money or ability to borrow.
I know many farmers with substantial acres of land with much of it at lower prices. They convince themselves the new higher priced land still keeps their total acreage at a reasonable average cost. I disagree.
Pretty sure they changed the regulations on appraisers. They are real hesitant to fudge the numbers like in years past. People waiting for a 2008 style bubble should rethink this. Not even close to the same situation.
You ain’t outbidding the Amish in these parts. They will overpay every single time.
The track home business down here and in many parts will do in house financing. I saw 3.9% yesterday. They will also build you another one and buy back the one you purchased. Those homes are easy to buy. Good deal? 🤷🏻♂️
There was a guy on r/wallstreetbets last week bragging on how his grandma left him $800k, and he'd just invested $700k on Intel, 22977 shares at $30.45. This was the day before it crashed. Closed today at $20.11, so he's down to $460k. Not bad for 4 days work.
At least it wasn't GamestopThere was a guy on r/wallstreetbets last week bragging on how his grandma left him $800k, and he'd just invested $700k on Intel, 22977 shares at $30.45. This was the day before it crashed. Closed today at $20.11, so he's down to $460k. Not bad for 4 days work.
Yea as you and others above have said, if someone has several other acres and can average it down across the whole operation, I could kind of understand that paper trick (looking from the farmer side). But if you are just a landlord, spend $20k for a $300-$400 / YEAR return... You must have been lighting joints with $100 bills and simply don't give a crap. OR I suppose carry it over a 50-60 yr mortgage... which is stupid and stressful... Oh well, These prices will never make sense to me I suspect.
Holy Crap, my Broker just called me from jail..... No just kidding about the jail part.. 
I would never ever figure I would have a broker who would spend the time to personally call me. Freaking cool !
Anyway, He explained this has a lot to do with Hedgefunds, shorting Japanese bonds and when Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates last week, a lot of head fund people were shitting bricks and had to cover some suddenly bad positions (in my redneck understanding anyway).
Does that square with you other financial people who speak jive?
I would never ever figure I would have a broker who would spend the time to personally call me. Freaking cool ! Anyway, He explained this has a lot to do with Hedgefunds, shorting Japanese bonds and when Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates last week, a lot of head fund people were shitting bricks and had to cover some suddenly bad positions (in my redneck understanding anyway).
Does that square with you other financial people who speak jive?
The cough syrup thing was always dumb and your constant use of it isn’t helping.
Find something new, for fvcks sake.
It’s not like you ever post anything but moronic insults. At least rotate them now and then.
I had an appraiser do my house on 2 different situations - one on a re-fi and and one when we sold it.
The first one he came back with a ridiculously low estimate, but I didn't care because I wasn't refinancing that much.
When I sold, he came back with some bullshit things like the roof on my outdoor gazebo by the pool had some issues.... no shit. It's a f'n gazebo that you can slap some shingles on and it's no big deal. Get some buddies over, offer them a beer, spend and hour on it and then hit the pool.
Another item was the cap on the fireplace needed 'repaired'. No specifics - just 'repaired'. I had to bring some chimney expert up from Boone County for him to put some cement on it, for which I was charged $2k.
The third item was the jets in the bathtub didn't work. No shit, dumbass - the jets won't run until there's water to run through them. I explained it to him and he STILL kept it in his report.
I'm sure your friend runs an honest business, but this asshole didn't know his ass from first base. Apparently, there's not much training or education required to be an appraiser.
Well, basically, they just pay the interest. The principal is never paid off.
My sister worked at a bank and said this is how it works, so I assume it's true. And when interest rates were 3%, it probably made sense. It doesn't now, I don't think.
Well, that and gov't subsidies.....
To be fair, and where I’ve been most of my life. If I can do what I love, have enough to feed my family so to speak, that’s all I needed personally.
But now my eyes have been opened up to so much more.
I am sure I was more happy not knowing more. It’s ruined my happiness. Yet I still chase unhappiness. Why would I do that? Just to fit in?
We're all human and want what we don't have, or can't have.
Like you, I'm financially OK where I am and I'm grateful for that. Doesn't mean I wouldn't be a money-grubber if I had the chance.
Bucca has been closing locations for years. I used to drive by that one in Castleton that closed and it was always an empty parking lot.
I think BW3 is the next one to start closing up. Those places are always empty. Had some wings from there a couple months ago. Awful.
Is that Buffalo Wild Wings? My daughter and I were there a few weeks ago. Had a few bites and got up and left
Yep. 15-20 years ago those places were packed almost nightly. Used to hang out at the bar at one that was right next to where I lived at the time. The food was never that great IMO, but it was passable....but the beer was cheap and it was a fun atmosphere. Now depressing as hell, dirty and empty. Several locations have closed... And the ones that are left have to be on deaths doorstep
That’s what I thought. That place was a staple for us in college. Sad
As a kid I swear KFC was at least passable. Now pure garbage with most locations dirty. Popeyes not much better.
Steak and Shake has give downhill too since COVID. We need a Freddy's closer by.
Steak and Shake has give downhill too since COVID. We need a Freddy's closer by.
I even liked kfc mashed potatoes as a kid. So dirty and gross now. Couldn’t pay me to eat it.
When we were dealing with the power outage last month we ate at Steak & Shake and Freddy's on successive nights. The difference was night and day.
It's not the 'building' of the home, it's the privacy and comfort achieved while living in the home that matters. Sharing the amenities is a plus.
Same. You can add Popeyes, Wendy's, Arby's and Panda Express to that for me. Pizza Hut, however, will always tickle my G spot.
Still rather retire early. Or buy a small house on bigger land.
I'm with you. I am 53 and want to retire in 2 years, but know that missus doesn't want me around the house, so it will be 62 and beyond 😂
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