Zeke needs to answer for this thread. S&P off another 3.5% in less than 30 minutes this AM. DOW down a full 3000 points since she created this snarky topic.
How bout that stock market?
- Thread starter zeke4ahs
- Start date
Karma got Zeke or maybe bad Karma is now Kamala. 😂
She’s busy sipping margs on a beach. She sold at the market top. We’re the suckers.
This giddiness everyone has been feeling was bound to come crashing down. Biden’s inflation was going to smack people in the gut sooner or later. For many that day came when the credit cards were maxed out.
Kamala already putting out garbage that this is Trump’s fault. 😂
Kamala already putting out garbage that this is Trump’s fault. 😂
The grocery store I shop at put a new style tag. Hard to read and small. The prices all went up substantially at the same time.
Consumer data I've seen is not pretty. People are pretty much out of money. Something was bound to break sooner or later. Fed was late.
And the first thing she’ll do in office is announce people are suffering we need a big stimulus package. Mark it down
Awesome job reporting here. Of course the Nasdaq hadn't fallen by 1000 points before because it wasn't until 1991 that they reached a 1000 points. Then it rose to 8k in 1998 and steadied out at an average of 3k until 2012 until its current levels (which have been the highest it has even been. NASDAQ is not at 16.1 at this moment (a 3.86% loss), but even at that level, it is still 2k higher than at any point under Trump. Context is king.
Fed late on the interest reduction is a pretty big deal. One day trends are meaningless. See how the week progresses.
Interesting, my buddy is an electrophysiologist and he was asking the rhetorical question about people in his neighborhood about "I make more money than these guys and yet they drive around in BMW 7 series what the hell". I told him to pull up the register of deeds in wayne county for those people (all public records), and see if there were lines of credit on the houses. 7 of 8 had lines of credit through second mortgages based upon overinflated property appraisals. No equity in their homes and likely underwater. That's pretty scary
And the cars are leased
Likely, which is basically insane. Everywhere you look, not a spec of equity just to keep up with the Joneses. I'm thankful my old man gave me some great advice when I first started practicing: (1) "You are single, you have no kids, I expect you to work 80 hours a week with a smile on your face"; and (2) "Save your f******g money, otherwise we are giving all our money to your brother". It worked
I have a buddy who was at stifel and had a midlife crisis and decided to sell cars at our high end dealer. All the luxury brands. I asked him who the F is buying all these new cars. He said no one. They’re all leased.Likely, which is basically insane. Everywhere you look, not a spec of equity just to keep up with the Joneses. I'm thankful my old man gave me some great advice when I first started practicing: (1) "You are single, you have no kids, I expect you to work 80 hours a week with a smile on your face"; and (2) "Save your f******g money, otherwise we are giving all our money to your brother". It worked
My favorite Thai restaurant recently went under. Been around forever
Agree. These dumps are inevitable. No one can predict the exact bottom, but if you have some money to invest get ready. In 6 months you will likely be glad.
Pizzology was a favorite when it first opened. Haven't been in years though. Didn't that fire happen before covid?
P&P has instituted a BS 3 beer max. So now, instead of mixing in 4 or more low-ABV choices (they have a good selection of sours) over the course of a few hours and walking back home or letting wifey drive, I'll go get our food to go and drink 1 beer while I wait.
Don’t knock it. I buy my cars when they come off these leases. Great shape; low miles; bulk of the depreciation in the rear-view mirror; certified Lexus program; warranty; maintenance program; two-to-three years old; like new at 15,000 miles or so.
I never liked the place - hate to share the food I want and hate to pay for food someone else wants. I hate family style, in general.
But, at least in Castleton, the place was always packed when we went there (my family loved it) and it did have a fun atmosphere. I always thought the food was meh.
Pastarrific in Kokomo has better Italian. Hell, Olive Garden has better Italian.
When I bought a deli, I was the third owner in about 20 years. The first owner started it and made it a real success. The second owner was an idiot and started replacing her ingredients with cheaper ones and, when I bought it, many complained to me things just didn't taste the same.
I brought in the original food vendor and told him to pull up all the old records of the place and we would use those. It made an immediate difference in the taste.
We’ve seem this story with RE before. I hope it’s not as bad as the last one.
If it is I will finally suck it up and buy a Beach Property on Seista Key. I was a chickshit and didn’t do it the last RE crash.
I'm thinking a crash has to come, at some point, in farm ground.
Unfortunately, my fear is that it is going to happen again. No specific knowledge other than I know what houses in my neighborhood sell for and I'm appalled that they sell that high because it simply can't last, and this anecdotal tale from my buddy. A lot of these lenders have continued to not learn the lessons from 2006-2009...
Anybody who read "The Millionaire Next Door" knows the difference between somebody who actually has money and somebody who makes a good income and spends most or all of it on lifestyle things. These two kinds of people are different in critical ways. One of those differences is in status symbol type things -- expensive cars, houses, jewelry, etc. etc.
That's not to say there's no such thing as a genuinely wealthy person who has nice cars and houses and such. But it is to say that a lot (most?) people who do have these things don't have the best looking balance sheet. And some of the wealthiest guys I know drive normal cars and have normal kinds of things.
I know a guy very well whose business was just bought by T-Mobile for $10B. If you put him in a room with most of the docs, lawyers, and financial advisers I know, he'd be the last person in the room you'd figure to be the wealthiest.
We usually rent our condo in Bonita Springs a few months each year when we're not there. November and Feb, usually, with maybe December.
Usually we're turning people away because of demand. So far, we don't have a single renter for this Fall and Winter and no prospects.
And, of course, the BoT of the condo association decided to undertake a major capital improvement last year after the hurricane, when construction prices were through the roof. F'n idiots.
You think the real estate market will crash? Big difference in buyers this time. Qualified vs 08 stated income etc
I mean, if you think about it.....the lenders are just gaming the system. Loan for 500k on a house that appraises for 550k (assuming down payment). House only goes up in value. Especially in high valuae areas.
What risk?
It might if there are no qualified buyers. Or the current qualified holding mortgages lose their jobs.
I would argue that the entire country didn't learn the lessons from 2009. Even the blue ribbon commission that was put together to do a post mortem on the subprime mortgage meltdown avoided the primary problem. They focused on all the secondary problems -- and gave short-shrift to the reality that the government deliberately lowered the barriers to home-lending....which, unsurprisingly, led to the barriers to home-lending being lowered in various ways.
I'm not saying that residential RE is going to crash again or anything like that. But I do agree with you that the current market (around here anyway) seems to have gotten out over its skis. My guess is that people with 2.5% mortgages are understandably reluctant to get out of them, which has had the effect of muting the supply for existing home sales.
The straw buyers have largely disappeared, so that is a huge plus.
Well my buddy had a lot more knowledge--he knows what these guys do for a living.....Not strangers
