ADVERTISEMENT

Goat's POLS Thread for Mature Adults

.....Sigh....
It's true. So far, from most networks, states have only been called for the candidates that had the polling lead. The only exception is Florida, which some networks have called (probably rightfully so) for Trump, and which Biden led by a whopping 2.5 points, which is a miss, but it's a miss by far less than a standard deviation. In other words, it's a small enough miss that it can be explained by nothing more than random sampling error.

Now, if Trump wins Michigan or Wisconsin, then you have an argument. That requires some sort of at least moderate systemic error in polling methodology. Random error isn't enough.

But don't but the cart before the horse. Those states are still uncalled by everyone.
 
It's true. So far, from most networks, states have only been called for the candidates that had the polling lead. The only exception is Florida, which some networks have called (probably rightfully so) for Trump, and which Biden led by a whopping 2.5 points, which is a miss, but it's a miss by far less than a standard deviation. In other words, it's a small enough miss that it can be explained by nothing more than random sampling error.

Now, if Trump wins Michigan or Wisconsin, then you have an argument. That requires some sort of at least moderate systemic error in polling methodology. Random error isn't enough.

But don't but the cart before the horse. Those states are still uncalled by everyone.


Here's a few: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/15...trump-nationally-states-show-closer-race.html





Could go on but I think you can grasp the trend here..
 
Last edited:
  • Love
Reactions: JamieDimonsBalls
Here's a few: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/15...trump-nationally-states-show-closer-race.html





The could go on but I think you can grasp the trend here..
Yes, yes, yes, see my further response to you. I was mistaken.
 
I think your being overly pessimistic, at least until we get the final Iowa/Ohio numbers. I mean, Minnesota has been called already, so it's not like it's a region-wide flop.

WI and MI are a lot more like Ohio/ Iowa than they are MN.


The polling 'errors' are extreme.... again.... in upper midwest
 
Reminder on Georgia: Fulton Co. is 72% in and Biden has a 184K lead. All of the outstanding votes are mail in ballots, and therefore likely to be even more heavily Biden than the average. They will not count anymore votes until the morning; they have gone home for the night. So we will not get a call on Georgia tonight. Trump has a 118K lead over all, which may shrink a little bit as other votes come in tonight. But the race will be decided by Fulton's returns tomorrow.

(Or, perhaps, a recount down the road.)
 
WI and MI are a lot more like Ohio/ Iowa than they are MN.


The polling 'errors' are extreme.... again.... in upper midwest
Yeah, shocking! Not. It seems the only people not aware of the massive shy Trump voters in WI and MI are the Clinton and Biden campaigns. I’m not sure how many times WIsconsin Dem officials need to beg the Dem candidate to come to their state and ignore the goddamn polls.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JamieDimonsBalls
Sad commentary on our politics: 344 decided house races, only 6 were flips (4 for Repubs, 2 for Dems, for a +2 GOP advantage so far). In a more reasonable electoral system, flips would be a lot more common.
 
  • Like
Reactions: largemouth
Yeah, shocking! Not. It seems the only people not aware of the massive shy Trump voters in WI and MI are the Clinton and Biden campaigns. I’m not sure how many times WIsconsin Dem officials need to beg the Dem candidate to come to their state and ignore the goddamn polls.
How often did Biden go to Wisconsin? Did he short change them like Hillary? Can't recall.
 
How often did Biden go to Wisconsin? Did he short change them like Hillary? Can't recall.
I’m not sure how often, but it wasn’t much, especially the last month of the campaign. Some Dem official was on the phone the last week to the campaign begging them to come, that the polls are wrong. Biden did a quick, unscheduled fly by stop for about 20 minutes in front of no one on his way back from Iowa/MN.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT