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Fareed Zakaria weekly take - Trump betting on US manufacturing.

The best and brightest in America go into MBA programs because that's where the money is. I've known a couple of overachiever types, science olympiad/mathlete types that would have made great engineers or scientists. But they chose business because they were smart enough to know that's where one gets rich.

We need to reevaluate this. We need our brightest not in hedge funds but researching AI, not creating derivatives but creating new materials. Moving money from pile A to pile B doesn't create wealth. But that is what we pay big money for.

There has to be a cultural shift. But unfortunately, the phrase 'greed is good' comes to mind and is the national cultural motto.

The bigger this educational, human capital gap gets, the more likely some nutcase in the WH will start another war -- on some pretence or trumped up justification like WMD.

Ultimately, the goal of any POTUS at this point is to maintain the sustainability of the economy -- and the trick to that is to maintain the hegomony of the USD as the global currency reserve via trade or military cohersion.


Otherwise the chickens will be coming back to roost, i.e., the national debt. (Its currently only sustainable because people are using the USD for trade, and as a result, the Treasury can keep pumping out the $$$ since there is always a demand. Off the top of my head, I think 2/3 of all USD in circulation are outside the US. You want foreigners to increase the use of USD.

But what Trump is doing is really like tactics developed by committees; every stakeholder in his big tent gets a wish.

As a result, they can be so contradictory and really counteract what I mentioned above. Protect the USD in order to sustain the national debt.

Tarriffs -- if you tarriff people, countries will stop trading with you or they will sell less -- which means they will need fewer USDs. That means there is less of a need to print USDs. And, there will be a tipping point when its no longer the predominant currency for trade, especially when countries are trading with their respective currencies. Then interest rates will be permanently high.

Then you go into a death spiral of high interest rates and then even a higher debt burden.

Going back to the present -- is the growth of the manufacturing sector possible? Yes. But it requires a long-term industrial strategy. (You ask any investor what they need -- visibility and stability.)


Is that possible in this political climate? Hell no.

It will be a future of politicians shouting: 'everyone else's fault' rather than being an adult and looking within and figuring things out.

So ask any bean counter and they will tell you that numbers dont lie.
 
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Sglowrider, enjoyed and agreed with much of your post.

As someone who tunes into the "Ivory Tower" Zakaria weekly show your fresh perspective is the kind of material presented by his guests. He may question the quest's ideas for clarity but doesn't argue with them.

I have a serious heated discussion with my BILs -- one teaches PHDs in bioengineering at Columbia, and the other is a Yale-trained lawyer. (And my sisters have like 4-5 degrees EACH from Columbia.)

I accused the professor of suffering from Stage One Kuger-Dunning just last year. The other one I quoted the famous Eleanor Roosevelt quote about small minds focusing on people. (His hatred of Trump is serious. He has been involved in 12 Trump law suits since 2017.) They are so focused on the every day stuff and not seeing the big picture. I kept on saying that Trump will win because the system and the consequences of it will put him in. (I blame Billybob Clinton and Citizens United for most of today's problems.)

My sisters were in the Canary Islands, 6 weeks ago at some monument for Columbus, telling me about it being the starting point of his epic discovery/journey. A week later, one of my sisters told me about how stressful it is to live in the States right now because of the things Trump is doing. She didnt seem to see the irony or the disconnect.

What's sad is how all discussions seem to always be about two sides only—and defending your side. They suffer from chronic cognitive dissonance whilst defending their 'side.' Not sure they realise it.

You cant take it seriously then—cognative dissonance but also the gamification of politics or economics are so obvious in any discussion.

My theory is that it's intentional. You have the majority of the voting plebs arguing among themselves and defending their sides while the country has been hollowed out and plundered by various powers, whether large corproations in the past, PEs, or today, the various billionaires.
 
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I agree that Zakaria is out of touch. But I don’t think he’s wrong.

And, again, how much of the burden for gaining high-value skills is on the country (as a matter of policy, etc), and how much of it is on us as individuals?

There has to be a cultural change. Stop blaming others -- whether it's China or for the drug epidemic. Look at ourselves and take control of our own issues --- and not have politicians deflect the problems and let them wash their hands off any accountability on their part.

This drug problem—you know what Asians here cant understand is how it is that outsiders get blamed for it? Its not like the Mexicans are putting a gun to the heads of the drug addicts and forcing them to take it?

Isnt what teenagers do? The Not me? Its him!!

Crack down or assist on the demand side of the equation. Boost the federal or state budget instead of continuing this pointless, nearly 55 years War of Drugs.
 
We've progressed ourselves out of a livelihood...yay?


Oh, and all that progress and still no feckin' jetpack...
th_coffee.gif


 
We've progressed ourselves out of a livelihood...yay?


Oh, and all that progress and still no feckin' jetpack...
th_coffee.gif



I think what Gates said has been said for hundreds of years, with every industrial revolution. Ultimately, every industrial revolution eliminates jobs that are repetitive, require low skill, and, in some cases, are physically dangerous or harmful.

With regards to AI, we haven't quite reached the tipping point yet. Though I have seen reports of 'dark factories' in China where you have robots making other robots or mobile phones without any human input, bar the few guys in the control room.

Most of us have been using some form of AI for nearly a decade now without realising it. (As I type, my spelling and grammar correction is done by AI.) Its only when machines/robots work with other machines/robots on an everyday or industrial level that I think we will be phased out in the majority of jobs.

I have been deep diving into AI recently, taking a couple of basic courses. But I have not decided to learn to code Python yet when I am looking at courses where you can build AI agents without coding. IMO Software coders could be the first endangered species post this initial AI surge. We can already ask an AI platform to build the entire software program for us, including all the codes.

Until we have machines working with other machines independently, I think there will be a need for humans for the majority of roles. Ultimately, a human has to convince another human to execute or make a decision. We are only at the point where AI is a productivity tool, an enhancement to your work. I think we are a long way to replicating the intelligence of the brain -- we barely know how our brain even works. (My BIL has a brain map of the fruit fly and it took him nearly a decade to do that.)

Gen Zs will use AI tools more liberally, overrelying on them, like outsourcing their analytical requirements, and in the long run, forgetting how to do critical analysis -- like how we had forgotten how to hand calculate by using the slide rule and eventually the scientific calculators. This will be a loss to the next generation.

And never mind the fact that the results provided by the existing AI platforms arent entirely accurate and can be totally made up i.e., hallucinations. The Gen Alphas will need to come to grips with that and learn to think or analyse in parallel.

We will need to understand ourselves better and start thinking about how AI and eventually super-intelligent humanoids/robots can supplement our lives... for now.

On the flip side, I have made a few songs -- had AI write the lyrics and then another AI platform to incorporate the lyrics into a musical tune to create a song. She cried at one of the songs I made. I am now a maker of songs!
 
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And make everyone else in the country collectively poorer via protectionism and subsides....

Sounds like a shit plan.

Now we have secondary sanctions, 25% on top of the current proposed -- for buying oil from Venezuela, for example. Weaponising the US consumers.

It's all fine and dandy if there are alternatives for the products. But if there is not, then how can you weaponise the American consumers for long when you are weakening their purchasing power at the same time? Thats assuming other countries dont retaliate which they will.

Like I said earlier, so much of these tactics are done by committee—it's just a litany of wish lists from the various lobbyists or lobbying stakeholders.

A fun fact, but circa 2023 only. The numbers will be much worse after April 2nd:




You just cant have American consumers keep paying for foreign policy initiatives as the way forward.

You either need to accept other political systems around the world or find other ways besides tarriffs and the military to impose your vision of the world.

At some point, the world will stop producing and exporting to the US. China has already reduced its dependence on the US and shifted to my region, ASEAN, which is now China's largest trading partner as a bloc.

Fyi. @UncleMark A box or carton of 30 extra large eggs here cost me $3.70.

The only way to keep people from being angry with the cost of living is to build an informational moat. Gaslight into people being happy or shape the informational flow that folks arent aware of stuff outside the US. The EVs are a great example.

The other thing is going back to the secondary sanctions on countries buying oil from Venezuela; do we really think that Trump cares about the 'free and fair' elections there? The sanctions are there to protect American Big Oil and their exports.

This is the gaslighting element of the way the media just reports things nowadays.
 
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Otherwise the chickens will be coming back to roost, i.e., the national debt. (Its currently only sustainable because people are using the USD for trade, and as a result, the Treasury can keep pumping out the $$$ since there is always a demand. Off the top of my head, I think 2/3 of all USD in circulation are outside the US. You want foreigners to increase the use of USD.

But what Trump is doing is really like tactics developed by committees; every stakeholder in his big tent gets a wish.

As a result, they can be so contradictory and really counteract what I mentioned above. Protect the USD in order to sustain the national debt.

Tarriffs -- if you tarriff people, countries will stop trading with you or they will sell less -- which means they will need fewer USDs. That means there is less of a need to print USDs. And, there will be a tipping point when its no longer the predominant currency for trade, especially when countries are trading with their respective currencies. Then interest rates will be permanently high.

Then you go into a death spiral of high interest rates and then even a higher debt burden.
The U.S. dollar would strengthen in that hypothetical. Also, the reason there are so many dollars in circulation is because there is a demand for them. The demand isn't going to go away in that scenario. And all other currencies would crash well before the dollar did, which by the way would ironically end up driving demand for the dollar when it was happening.

Ask yourself what happens when Americans stop buying all those goods? Those countries economies crash because it's a larger part of their economies. Also, they don't have consumers to step in and fill that demand.

Now, the U. S. would also suffer, but not as bad and we'd eventually make the goods here. I'm not advocating for this and hope we move to a neutral reserve currency, but a tariff war would end with the U.S. still on top. It is what it is.
 
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The U.S. dollar would strengthen in that hypothetical. Also, the reason there are so many dollars in circulation is because there is a demand for them. The demand isn't going to go away in that scenario. And all other currencies would crash well before the dollar did, which by the way would ironically end up driving demand for the dollar when it was happening.

Ask yourself what happens when Americans stop buying all those goods? Those countries economies crash because it's a larger part of their economies. Also, they don't have consumers to step in and fill that demand.

Now, the U. S. would also suffer, but not as bad and we'd eventually make the goods here. I'm not advocating for this and hope we move to a neutral reserve currency, but a tariff war would end with the U.S. still on top. It is what it is.

Firstly, the US just doesnt export a lot of manufactured goods. Services yes. A lot -- which goes back to the original discussion on reshoring manufacturing jobs.

With the weakening of US consumers' purchasing power via tariffs, this idea isnt as realistic as it once was. Geo-political economists will or should have a long-ass discussion on which is the more relevant GDP indicator. Nominal or PPP in 2025.

Post-2024 elections: Kamala's Bidenomics gaslighting of how strong the economic strength of the US economy is; by touting the fantastic growth, etc under her watch versus the financial reality felt by the majority of the voters, you ought to start to lean towards the PPP as the better and more indicative GDP version.

Another example -- an increase in healthcare costs actually contributes to the overall nominal GDP -- and this despite a downward trend in life expectancy in the US. I dont know if you know how expensive healthcare is in the US versus other countries. Its got to be between 2 and 5 times more than any of the places I have lived or worked in.

Besides, the US isn't the only market out there. The US was the largest export market for China. But since the initial rounds of tarriffs in Trump 1.0 they have shifted gears. The Asean trading bloc is now its largest market and growing at a rapid pace. You have to remember that in the first 18 of the last 20 centuries, China and India were the world's largest economies. We may just be heading into a period of economic default.

Trump, regardless, wants fewer imports, with the aim of manufacturing domestically. The other problem is that the US-based manufacturers will find it difficult to export their US-made products. The rest of the world in the long term may just trade amont themselves freer with the US as a trading island all by itself.

So the 2/3rd pool of USD abroad will gradually shrink since they aren't trading with the US as much?

As to the strengthening of the US dollar, TBF its a long discussion and one that goes beyond typing on a forum. But my basic premise is that when there is less demand for the USD, the value weakens in the long run. It can only be compensated by selling more T-bills or Bonds through raising the yield/the interest rate, which isnt a good thing considering the size of the ever-increasing national debt.
 
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Regarding the tariffs of vehicles: please correct me if you know the answer to this. I thought I read to transfer manufacturing from other countries back to the United States it take 2-3 years to plan and create the infrastructure for building new models.
 
Regarding the tariffs of vehicles: please correct me if you know the answer to this. I thought I read to transfer manufacturing from other countries back to the United States it take 2-3 years to plan and create the infrastructure for building new models.
I don’t know but I do know a major oversight across numerous industries re bringing it back is that the capital raised for plants already took place and is overseas. It would be a hell of an investment to start from scratch for so many companies. Our little piss ant co owns all of the equipment overseas. My investors already paid for it. They wouldn’t pony up again. Now imagine massive infrastructure. And Joe bag of doughnuts doesn’t realize it but china is insanely technologically advanced. In my space their factories blow away what we have here in the states
 
I have a serious heated discussion with my BILs -- one teaches PHDs in bioengineering at Columbia, and the other is a Yale-trained lawyer. (And my sisters have like 4-5 degrees EACH from Columbia.)

I accused the professor of suffering from Stage One Kuger-Dunning just last year. The other one I quoted the famous Eleanor Roosevelt quote about small minds focusing on people. (His hatred of Trump is serious. He has been involved in 12 Trump law suits since 2017.) They are so focused on the every day stuff and not seeing the big picture. I kept on saying that Trump will win because the system and the consequences of it will put him in. (I blame Billybob Clinton and Citizens United for most of today's problems.)

My sisters were in the Canary Islands, 6 weeks ago at some monument for Columbus, telling me about it being the starting point of his epic discovery/journey. A week later, one of my sisters told me about how stressful it is to live in the States right now because of the things Trump is doing. She didnt seem to see the irony or the disconnect.

What's sad is how all discussions seem to always be about two sides only—and defending your side. They suffer from chronic cognitive dissonance whilst defending their 'side.' Not sure they realise it.

You cant take it seriously then—cognative dissonance but also the gamification of politics or economics are so obvious in any discussion.

My theory is that it's intentional. You have the majority of the voting plebs arguing among themselves and defending their sides while the country has been hollowed out and plundered by various powers, whether large corproations in the past, PEs, or today, the various billionaires.
Your posts in this thread are great.

A few points of disagreement:

(1) your theory about American politics' polarization being intentionally created by "various powers," "large corporations," and "billionaires is kinda conspiracy theory territory. It's ironic when in another message you rightly criticize Americans for needing someone to blame for the drug crisis. That's what you're doing here. It's probably an innate human psychological instinct, I'd guess, to want to blame people--it makes complex problems easier to think about and gives people comfort that large scale human problems are solvable and controllable by humans when they might not be.

(2) You say America needs to attack its drug problem by cracking down on demand. I'm not sure how that happens. I don't know that a society invested in individualism, etc. has the ability to change culture and societal norms on a dime like that. That might be a weakness of American/Western societies, but they have their strengths as well.
 
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Regarding the tariffs of vehicles: please correct me if you know the answer to this. I thought I read to transfer manufacturing from other countries back to the United States it take 2-3 years to plan and create the infrastructure for building new models.
Yes, and Trump has acknowledged that
 
Your posts in this thread are great.

A few points of disagreement:

(1) your theory about American politics' polarization being intentionally created by "various powers," "large corporations," and "billionaires is kinda conspiracy theory territory. It's ironic when in another message you rightly criticize Americans for needing someone to blame for the drug crisis. That's what you're doing here. It's probably an innate human psychological instinct, I'd guess, to want to blame people--it makes complex problems easier to think about and gives people comfort that large scale human problems are solvable and controllable by humans when they might not be.

(2) You say America needs to attack its drug problem by cracking down on demand. I'm not sure how that happens. I don't know that a society invested in individualism, etc. has the ability to change culture and societal norms on a dime like that. That might be a weakness of American/Western societies, but they have their strengths as well.
Drugs it’s supply and demand. Opioid settlement for negligent manufacturers and distributors. Increased access to treatment including telemed. Although the muny where my ex lives used their opioid dough for a new truck. My guess is this money will look a lot like tobacco. A wasted opportunity
 
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Your posts in this thread are great.

A few points of disagreement:

(1) your theory about American politics' polarization being intentionally created by "various powers," "large corporations," and "billionaires is kinda conspiracy theory territory. It's ironic when in another message you rightly criticize Americans for needing someone to blame for the drug crisis. That's what you're doing here. It's probably an innate human psychological instinct, I'd guess, to want to blame people--it makes complex problems easier to think about and gives people comfort that large scale human problems are solvable and controllable by humans when they might not be.

(2) You say America needs to attack its drug problem by cracking down on demand. I'm not sure how that happens. I don't know that a society invested in individualism, etc. has the ability to change culture and societal norms on a dime like that. That might be a weakness of American/Western societies, but they have their strengths as well.
sglowrider is a great poster. You don't always have to agree with him - and I often don't - to realize that (I know you know that, but wanted to acknowledge him).

On your second point, he lives, or used to, in Singapore. They quash demand by executing drug dealers and, maybe, users. That will tend to tamp down demand.....
 
Your posts in this thread are great.

A few points of disagreement:

(1) your theory about American politics' polarization being intentionally created by "various powers," "large corporations," and "billionaires is kinda conspiracy theory territory. It's ironic when in another message you rightly criticize Americans for needing someone to blame for the drug crisis. That's what you're doing here. It's probably an innate human psychological instinct, I'd guess, to want to blame people--it makes complex problems easier to think about and gives people comfort that large scale human problems are solvable and controllable by humans when they might not be.

(2) You say America needs to attack its drug problem by cracking down on demand. I'm not sure how that happens. I don't know that a society invested in individualism, etc. has the ability to change culture and societal norms on a dime like that. That might be a weakness of American/Western societies, but they have their strengths as well.
Addressing number 2. The drug problem is a relatively new issue in the U.S. It's increased 10x this century. It's mainly being driven by broken money, globalization, and more deadly drugs. The negative trade offs of our monetary system and globalization has hit those communities the hardest. Being a working class Joe with a 90 IQ, in West Virginia, sort of sucks, is my take away.
 
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Yes I’m bias against many of Trump’s policies but Fareed has intelligent opinions I could never articulate. I’d like to post his weekly takes and open for discussion.


I've long argued on here that part of the reason comparative advantage matters is because we don't need as much shit as we did decades ago. American's habits change and they aren't interested in hoarding as many things on average and spend more time with a single object or two (phone, computer/tablet).

I'm open to counterarguments, but his points on services and innovation also make sense.
 
I guess one of the questions though is SHOULD America aspire to be a leader in manufacturing like the old days versus being a services economy which Fareed suggests is more profitable for employees and companies?

You need strategic manufacturing. That could change, but we should be doubling down on manufacturing products based on their value and complexity. Favorable end markets include medical devices, biotech, aerospace and defense, and critical industrial electronics, systems.

Nonfavorable markets should be anything commoditized or lower value, lower margin manufacturing (widgets, basic industrial tools). Of course semicon fits in that bucket, to a degree, but there are always some strategically important reasons to want to keep things like semicon, steel, etc. domestic so that there is supply in the event it is needed.
 
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Great band.

I dare anyone here to put War on Drugs playlist on random this summer, sit on the porch with a chickadee and a couple bottles of red, as the sun sets into night...

and not at least get a handy.



Great live band. Saw them at the White River venue a couple summers back. He’s a big Springsteen fan. I believe he named his son after Bruce. Good night music while driving with the windows down.
 
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You need strategic manufacturing. That could change, but we should be doubling down on manufacturing products based on their value and complexity. Favorable end markets include medical devices, biotech, aerospace and defense, and critical industrial electronics, systems.

Nonfavorable markets should be anything commoditized or lower value, lower margin manufacturing (widgets, basic industrial tools). Of course semicon fits in that bucket, to a degree, but there are always some strategically important reasons to want to keep things like semicon, steel, etc. domestic so that there is supply in the event it is needed.
So, we need a Great Leap Forward? A Five Year Plan?
 
Regarding the tariffs of vehicles: please correct me if you know the answer to this. I thought I read to transfer manufacturing from other countries back to the United States it take 2-3 years to plan and create the infrastructure for building new models.

Create the infrastructure -- you know how long it takes to scout a site, negotiate the sale, get building permits, and then actually build? (Thats assuming you can find enough workers.) What about the engineers? Skilled workers?

Trump has to be in for the 3rd term if this is to happen today. Otherwise, whoever wins could just change things around, and then everything is back to square one.

Thats whywe need Trump 2028!!!

#Trump3.0

Make America Even Better (MAEB)
 
Create the infrastructure -- you know how long it takes to scout a site, negotiate the sale, get building permits, and then actually build? (Thats assuming you can find enough workers.) What about the engineers? Skilled workers?

Trump has to be in for the 3rd term if this is to happen today. Otherwise, whoever wins could just change things around, and then everything is back to square one.

Thats whywe need Trump 2028!!!

#Trump3.0

Make America Even Better (MAEB)
MAYBE

Make America Yet Better Even
 
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Your posts in this thread are great.

A few points of disagreement:

(1) your theory about American politics' polarization being intentionally created by "various powers," "large corporations," and "billionaires is kinda conspiracy theory territory. It's ironic when in another message you rightly criticize Americans for needing someone to blame for the drug crisis. That's what you're doing here. It's probably an innate human psychological instinct, I'd guess, to want to blame people--it makes complex problems easier to think about and gives people comfort that large scale human problems are solvable and controllable by humans when they might not be.

(2) You say America needs to attack its drug problem by cracking down on demand. I'm not sure how that happens. I don't know that a society invested in individualism, etc. has the ability to change culture and societal norms on a dime like that. That might be a weakness of American/Western societies, but they have their strengths as well.
Drugs it’s supply and demand. Opioid settlement for negligent manufacturers and distributors. Increased access to treatment including telemed. Although the muny where my ex lives used their opioid dough for a new truck. My guess is this money will look a lot like tobacco. A wasted opportunity

Addressing number 2. The drug problem is a relatively new issue in the U.S. It's increased 10x this century. It's mainly being driven by broken money, globalization, and more deadly drugs. The negative trade offs of our monetary system and globalization has hit those communities the hardest. Being a working class Joe with a 90 IQ, in West Virginia, sort of sucks, is my take away.


Let's start with point 2.

It has nothing to do with individualism. Otherwise, how the hell do we get to have the best military in the world then? Imagine every soldier exhibiting their 'individualism'. 😅

If you live outside the country long enough, you will have been made a fool and look parochial enough times. Concepts liek 'individuality' freedom of speech, democracy etc are just slogans or ideas indoctrinated into one's head early on. Makes you feel special but the reality is that a lot o countries also have the same rights.

Example: 1st Amendment—freedom of speech, for example. There are actually 150 countries in the world that have that in their constitutions or laws. I didnt know that -- until you lived outside the US.

Honestly, in my cynical view, so much of this sloganism is just what it is. An excuse for politicians not to get off their asses and take accountability.

A complicated question deserves a long-form version as to why the US is facing an opiod epidemic:

Reasons for the Opioid Epidemic

A. Medical Overprescription
Overprescribing Painkillers: In the 1990s, pharmaceutical companies aggressively marketed opioids like OxyContin, assuring doctors that these drugs were safe and non-addictive when used for pain management. This led to widespread overprescription.
Chronic Pain Management: Many Americans suffer from chronic pain conditions, and opioids were seen as an easy solution. However, long-term use increased dependency rates.
Lack of Alternatives: Limited access to alternative pain management options (e.g., physical therapy, acupuncture) pushed patients toward opioids.

B. Fentanyl's Role
Illicit Fentanyl: Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid 50–100 times more potent than morphine, entered the illegal drug market. It is often mixed with heroin, cocaine, or counterfeit pills, making it highly dangerous due to its potency.
Cheap and Potent: Drug traffickers favor fentanyl because it is cheaper and easier to produce than heroin, leading to its proliferation in the illicit drug supply.

C. Systemic Failures
Inadequate Regulation: Weak oversight of pharmaceutical companies allowed aggressive marketing and distribution of opioids.
Fragmented Healthcare System: The U.S. healthcare system often prioritizes short-term solutions over long-term care, leaving patients without adequate support for pain management or addiction recovery.
Stigma Around Addiction: Addiction has historically been stigmatized rather than treated as a medical condition, delaying effective interventions.

D. Social Determinants
Economic Decline: Economic hardship, job loss, and poverty have contributed to higher rates of substance abuse in certain regions, particularly in rural and deindustrialised areas. Mental Health Crisis: Rising rates of anxiety, depression, and trauma have fuelled self-medication with opioids.


2. Demographic and Psychological Factors Leading to Addiction.

A. Demographics
  • Age: Young adults (ages 18–35) are at high risk for opioid misuse due to experimentation and peer pressure. Middle-aged adults (45–64) also face high rates of addiction, often stemming from chronic pain prescriptions.
  • Geography: Rural areas, particularly in states like West Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio, have been disproportionately affected due to economic decline and limited access to healthcare.
  • Race/Ethnicity: While the opioid epidemic initially affected predominantly white populations, it has increasingly impacted Black and Hispanic communities, partly due to the spread of fentanyl.
  • Gender: Men are more likely to die from opioid overdoses, but women are more likely to be prescribed opioids and develop dependencies.

B. Psychological Factors
  1. Chronic Pain: Individuals suffering from chronic pain are more likely to be prescribed opioids and may become dependent as they rely on them for relief.
  2. Mental Health Disorders: Conditions like depression, anxiety, PTSD, and trauma increase vulnerability to addiction. Opioids provide temporary relief from emotional pain, creating a cycle of dependency.
  3. Personality Traits: Impulsivity, low self-control, and a history of risk-taking behaviors can predispose individuals to substance abuse.
  4. Trauma and Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs): People with histories of trauma or ACEs are more likely to develop substance use disorders as a coping mechanism.

3. Financial Situation and Its Role
  • Financial instability plays a significant role in the opioid epidemic, both directly and indirectly:

i. Poverty and Economic Hardship
  • Job Loss and Unemployment: Economic downturns, factory closures, and unemployment in certain regions have left many people feeling hopeless and stressed, increasing their likelihood of turning to drugs.
  • Lack of Access to Healthcare: Low-income individuals often lack access to affordable healthcare, including mental health services and addiction treatment programs.
  • Substandard Living Conditions: Poverty correlates with higher exposure to stressors like crime, violence, and unstable housing, which can exacerbate mental health issues and substance abuse.

ii. Healthcare Costs
  • High Cost of Treatment: Addiction treatment is expensive, and many low-income individuals cannot afford rehabilitation programs or medications like buprenorphine (used for opioid use disorder).
  • Insurance Gaps: Even with insurance, coverage for addiction treatment is often inadequate, leaving patients to pay out-of-pocket or go untreated.

iii. Economic Disparities
  • Urban vs. Rural Divide: Rural areas, where poverty rates are higher, tend to have fewer resources for addiction prevention and treatment compared to urban centers.
  • Systemic Inequality: Marginalized groups, including racial minorities and low-income populations, face additional barriers to accessing quality care and are disproportionately affected by the opioid crisis.

4. Summary of Key Drivers

The opioid epidemic, especially involving fentanyl, is driven by:
  1. Medical practices that overprescribed opioids and failed to address alternatives.
  2. Illicit drug markets flooding communities with cheap, potent substances like fentanyl.
  3. Economic and social factors , including poverty, unemployment, and lack of healthcare access.
  4. Psychological vulnerabilities , such as mental health disorders and trauma.
  5. Systemic failures , including inadequate regulation and stigmatization of addiction.

While financial situations play a significant role—especially in terms of access to healthcare, economic stability, and exposure to stressors—they are just one piece of the puzzle. Addressing the opioid epidemic requires a comprehensive approach that includes:
  • Expanding access to affordable healthcare and addiction treatment.
  • Improving education about the risks of opioids and fentanyl.
  • Investing in economic development and job creation in hard-hit areas.
  • Reducing stigma around addiction and promoting harm-reduction strategies like naloxone distribution and supervised injection sites.
  • By tackling the root causes of the epidemic on multiple fronts, progress can be made in reducing opioid addiction and overdose deaths.

{The opioid epidemic in America, particularly involving fentanyl, stems from over-prescription, illicit drug markets, economic hardship, psychological vulnerabilities, and systemic failures. Financial situations contribute significantly but are intertwined with broader social, medical, and psychological factors.}


None of these points mentioned above has anything to do with some god-given, unalienable right or some sense of exceptionalism like induvidualism.

Its all fixable, but as I had suggested earlier -- there is a reason why this War on Drugs has been going on for nearly 55 years. People are benefiting from it, and it aint the opiod users.

Its always easy to blame others, like other countries. (The 'suppliers')

It's much harder a job --- to address the demand problem -- when you have to do it yourself, and then this foreign idea of accountability will start to bite their lardy asses up in DC.

Not only is it a politically lazy way of doing your job, it's very immature and infantile. But then its no wonder why the Congress has such low approval ratings.

By the People, For the People* -- do so your feckin job. You are there to improve the people's lives and not bicker and do nothing other than enrich yourselves.




* That's my definition of 'democracy' and not some ritual that happens every few years.
 
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You need strategic manufacturing. That could change, but we should be doubling down on manufacturing products based on their value and complexity. Favorable end markets include medical devices, biotech, aerospace and defense, and critical industrial electronics, systems.

Nonfavorable markets should be anything commoditized or lower value, lower margin manufacturing (widgets, basic industrial tools). Of course semicon fits in that bucket, to a degree, but there are always some strategically important reasons to want to keep things like semicon, steel, etc. domestic so that there is supply in the event it is needed.

That's quite the wish list. Wanting to bring back manufacturing and actually having the capacity is another matter.

Where is the human capital going to come from? And that opens up another can of worms.

These are all generational issues that require industrial policies that need to be consistent over decades. Otherwise, nobody will want to invest. Is that even possible when CEOs are focused on quarterly results?

You will require an investment come-to-Jesus moment --- where shareholders and other stakeholders have to set aside financial resources for a decade or more? (like in the old days.)

Honestly I dont see all this happening.

The easiest solution is to go to war.

Blow up the competitors into submission ala WW2 -- where almost every country in the world was destroyed and had to start from scratch again -- and then you can dominate the global economy again.
 
Let's start with point 2.

It has nothing to do with individualism. Otherwise, how the hell do we get to have the best military in the world then? Imagine every soldier exhibiting their 'individualism'. 😅

If you live outside the country long enough, you will have been made a fool and look parochial enough times. Concepts liek 'individuality' freedom of speech, democracy etc are just slogans or ideas indoctrinated into one's head early on. Makes you feel special but the reality is that a lot o countries also have the same rights.

Example: 1st Amendment—freedom of speech, for example. There are actually 150 countries in the world that have that in their constitutions or laws. I didnt know that -- until you lived outside the US.

Honestly, in my cynical view, so much of this sloganism is just what it is. An excuse for politicians not to get off their asses and take accountability.

A complicated question deserves a long-form version as to why the US is facing an opiod epidemic:

Reasons for the Opioid Epidemic

A. Medical Overprescription
Overprescribing Painkillers: In the 1990s, pharmaceutical companies aggressively marketed opioids like OxyContin, assuring doctors that these drugs were safe and non-addictive when used for pain management. This led to widespread overprescription.
Chronic Pain Management: Many Americans suffer from chronic pain conditions, and opioids were seen as an easy solution. However, long-term use increased dependency rates.
Lack of Alternatives: Limited access to alternative pain management options (e.g., physical therapy, acupuncture) pushed patients toward opioids.

B. Fentanyl's Role
Illicit Fentanyl: Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid 50–100 times more potent than morphine, entered the illegal drug market. It is often mixed with heroin, cocaine, or counterfeit pills, making it highly dangerous due to its potency.
Cheap and Potent: Drug traffickers favor fentanyl because it is cheaper and easier to produce than heroin, leading to its proliferation in the illicit drug supply.

C. Systemic Failures
Inadequate Regulation: Weak oversight of pharmaceutical companies allowed aggressive marketing and distribution of opioids.
Fragmented Healthcare System: The U.S. healthcare system often prioritizes short-term solutions over long-term care, leaving patients without adequate support for pain management or addiction recovery.
Stigma Around Addiction: Addiction has historically been stigmatized rather than treated as a medical condition, delaying effective interventions.

D. Social Determinants
Economic Decline: Economic hardship, job loss, and poverty have contributed to higher rates of substance abuse in certain regions, particularly in rural and deindustrialised areas. Mental Health Crisis: Rising rates of anxiety, depression, and trauma have fuelled self-medication with opioids.


2. Demographic and Psychological Factors Leading to Addiction.

A. Demographics
  • Age: Young adults (ages 18–35) are at high risk for opioid misuse due to experimentation and peer pressure. Middle-aged adults (45–64) also face high rates of addiction, often stemming from chronic pain prescriptions.
  • Geography: Rural areas, particularly in states like West Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio, have been disproportionately affected due to economic decline and limited access to healthcare.
  • Race/Ethnicity: While the opioid epidemic initially affected predominantly white populations, it has increasingly impacted Black and Hispanic communities, partly due to the spread of fentanyl.
  • Gender: Men are more likely to die from opioid overdoses, but women are more likely to be prescribed opioids and develop dependencies.

B. Psychological Factors
  1. Chronic Pain: Individuals suffering from chronic pain are more likely to be prescribed opioids and may become dependent as they rely on them for relief.
  2. Mental Health Disorders: Conditions like depression, anxiety, PTSD, and trauma increase vulnerability to addiction. Opioids provide temporary relief from emotional pain, creating a cycle of dependency.
  3. Personality Traits: Impulsivity, low self-control, and a history of risk-taking behaviors can predispose individuals to substance abuse.
  4. Trauma and Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs): People with histories of trauma or ACEs are more likely to develop substance use disorders as a coping mechanism.

3. Financial Situation and Its Role
  • Financial instability plays a significant role in the opioid epidemic, both directly and indirectly:

i. Poverty and Economic Hardship
  • Job Loss and Unemployment: Economic downturns, factory closures, and unemployment in certain regions have left many people feeling hopeless and stressed, increasing their likelihood of turning to drugs.
  • Lack of Access to Healthcare: Low-income individuals often lack access to affordable healthcare, including mental health services and addiction treatment programs.
  • Substandard Living Conditions: Poverty correlates with higher exposure to stressors like crime, violence, and unstable housing, which can exacerbate mental health issues and substance abuse.

ii. Healthcare Costs
  • High Cost of Treatment: Addiction treatment is expensive, and many low-income individuals cannot afford rehabilitation programs or medications like buprenorphine (used for opioid use disorder).
  • Insurance Gaps: Even with insurance, coverage for addiction treatment is often inadequate, leaving patients to pay out-of-pocket or go untreated.

iii. Economic Disparities
  • Urban vs. Rural Divide: Rural areas, where poverty rates are higher, tend to have fewer resources for addiction prevention and treatment compared to urban centers.
  • Systemic Inequality: Marginalized groups, including racial minorities and low-income populations, face additional barriers to accessing quality care and are disproportionately affected by the opioid crisis.

4. Summary of Key Drivers

The opioid epidemic, especially involving fentanyl, is driven by:
  1. Medical practices that overprescribed opioids and failed to address alternatives.
  2. Illicit drug markets flooding communities with cheap, potent substances like fentanyl.
  3. Economic and social factors , including poverty, unemployment, and lack of healthcare access.
  4. Psychological vulnerabilities , such as mental health disorders and trauma.
  5. Systemic failures , including inadequate regulation and stigmatization of addiction.

While financial situations play a significant role—especially in terms of access to healthcare, economic stability, and exposure to stressors—they are just one piece of the puzzle. Addressing the opioid epidemic requires a comprehensive approach that includes:
  • Expanding access to affordable healthcare and addiction treatment.
  • Improving education about the risks of opioids and fentanyl.
  • Investing in economic development and job creation in hard-hit areas.
  • Reducing stigma around addiction and promoting harm-reduction strategies like naloxone distribution and supervised injection sites.
  • By tackling the root causes of the epidemic on multiple fronts, progress can be made in reducing opioid addiction and overdose deaths.

{The opioid epidemic in America, particularly involving fentanyl, stems from over-prescription, illicit drug markets, economic hardship, psychological vulnerabilities, and systemic failures. Financial situations contribute significantly but are intertwined with broader social, medical, and psychological factors.}


None of these points mentioned above has anything to do with some god-given, unalienable right or some sense of exceptionalism like induvidualism.

Its all fixable, but as I had suggested earlier -- there is a reason why this War on Drugs has been going on for nearly 55 years. People are benefiting from it, and it aint the opiod users.

Its always easy to blame others, like other countries. (The 'suppliers')

It's much harder a job --- to address the demand problem -- when you have to do it yourself, and then this foreign idea of accountability will start to bite their lardy asses up in DC.

Not only is it a politically lazy way of doing your job, it's very immature and infantile. But then its no wonder why the Congress has such low approval ratings.

By the People, For the People* -- do so your feckin job. You are there to improve the people's lives and not bicker and do nothing other than enrich yourselves.




* That's my definition of 'democracy' and not some ritual that happens every few years.
You're missing the point on your beginning to #2. It's not a matter of who has what, it's a matter of how people perceive themselves (which you admit) and how that perception colors their attitudes towards centralized action. You can accuse me of provincialism all you want (I'm not) but plenty of experienced, traveled people have made the same observation I did. An example:

 
That's quite the wish list. Wanting to bring back manufacturing and actually having the capacity is another matter.

Where is the human capital going to come from? And that opens up another can of worms.

These are all generational issues that require industrial policies that need to be consistent over decades. Otherwise, nobody will want to invest. Is that even possible when CEOs are focused on quarterly results?

You will require an investment come-to-Jesus moment --- where shareholders and other stakeholders have to set aside financial resources for a decade or more? (like in the old days.)

Honestly I dont see all this happening.

The easiest solution is to go to war.

Blow up the competitors into submission ala WW2 -- where almost every country in the world was destroyed and had to start from scratch again -- and then you can dominate the global economy again.
What we lack for in consistency of policy, we gain in the consistency of not sticking with terrible policy.

Like the CCP for example. How are those age demographics looking? One child policy looking like a good idea? Even worse than the U.S.,except you don’t even allow immigrants.

Suckling at the teet of free trade, while you undermine it and act in protectionist ways is coming to an end as well. Even Biden understood that.

China’s 21st century apex is not far off, maybe it’s already happened?
 
That's quite the wish list. Wanting to bring back manufacturing and actually having the capacity is another matter.

Where is the human capital going to come from? And that opens up another can of worms.

These are all generational issues that require industrial policies that need to be consistent over decades. Otherwise, nobody will want to invest. Is that even possible when CEOs are focused on quarterly results?

You will require an investment come-to-Jesus moment --- where shareholders and other stakeholders have to set aside financial resources for a decade or more? (like in the old days.)

Honestly I dont see all this happening.

The easiest solution is to go to war.

Blow up the competitors into submission ala WW2 -- where almost every country in the world was destroyed and had to start from scratch again -- and then you can dominate the global economy again.

Huh? Hardly a wishlist considering we are already a significant player in those segments of manufacturing. When you are making differentiated products that make a major impact, you can price with enough margin to support high wage jobs and/or invest in automation.

I think you grossly underestimate the amount of automation out there. Factories are already operating with robots running entire multi-step cells.
 
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