I agree on a lot of your post. I never said or meant to say that conservative republicans are old dinosaurs marching on their way to extinction.
You are a minority movement in pure numbers and have been for a while (again republicans have only won two general presidential elections in over 30 years).
If trends stay true, and who knows as younger generations move into their power years, then there should be continued republican slippage as people die off and younger ones take over.
Look at diversity in high school graduates. Going off the top of my head here but I thought in 2000 around 61% of hs graduates were white. In 2020 it was down to around 50%.
Wanna really know why there's so much animosity over the 'southern border'? It's because of Texas. Southern immigrants tend to vote democratic (unlike Cuban immigrants who tend to be republicans). If the GOP loses Texas, say goodbye to a Republican president.
But I digress.
Here's a blurb of political identity.
On December 17, 2020,
Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 25% identified as Republican, and 41% as Independent.
[3] Additionally, polling showed that 50% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 39% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"
[3]
If I read that right, 31% are true blue Dems, 25% are true red republicans.
Of the 41% who claim to be independent, 50% lean Dems and 39% lean republican.
The Dem numbers are baked into the populace. Which is why we just need a big voter turn out and we should win. Republicans, since they are the minority now, have to make it so the right mix of voters count.
Which is why you see all of the games in regards to gerrymandering and all of the new voter laws going into republican controlled areas.
We all know this. This isn't new.
Eventually I believe the minority party, like it has happened all over the world, will create a crusade to justify simply taking over.
Gotta get the people prepped for that first though.
As far as November, yeah there's already because of gerrymandering six to eight seats that will be flipped. Add in if the economy stays where it's at with the current inflation (and the market has been dogshit so far this year) I agree, it's going to be a rough November like it was for Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr, Obama and Trump.
Historically the first mid term is a nasty one for the party of a new president.
This year most likely won't be any different unless the pubs really mess this up (but they won't, they seem laser focused on the mid terms. I can't say the same for the Dems).
In all of this, I will say the best thing for the republican party is for the democratic progressives to continue to grow and split the party in two. That in essence could make it a de facto three party system which would be a disaster for the Dem party because, they are already turning on Biden whereas the republicans are much more in sync as a party (although there are some cracks).
