DBM WE'RE COOKED 7 SWING STATE SWEEP NATE SILVER
- Thread starter mcmurtry66
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shhhhhh i wanted to poke dbm a little this am. get him cookin
I didn't click on your link but Nate Silver is the biggest fraud ever. He's the Jim Cramer of political predictions. His claim to fame was Obama's own pollster once giving him their own internal polling.
Pretty wild that he actually thinks there is a 40% chance that either sweeps. That seems quite high to me given how different some of those are.
Am I remembering it wrong?...or did you link a Silver poll this summer that was favorable to Trump?
I think it probably speaks to just how close those states are this year. So it only takes a little movement in either direction to start tipping them all.
Just one event right ahead of the election like the Comey letter could do it.
He had a post a couple of weeks ago in the Harris / Waltz interview thread that said "Even Nate Silver now his favored. All the people that were the most accurate in 2016 and 2020 see him as a heavy favorite." I believe he was saying at the time that Trump was going to win because even democratic-leaning Silver had Trump winning (though the "most accurate" sentence afterward was kinda confusing because it implied that Silver was considered part of that grouping).
Hillary is an idiot. She can scream from now till judgement day that the Comey reinvestigation was the reason that she lost and she would still be just as wrong. DELETING the emails is what lost her the election, not Comey's investigation of it.
The corrupt crooked vile Dems have an October surprise!!!!!
Trump covered in baby oil at a Diddy freak off!!!!!!
If Silver has the race at 50/50 then you know Trump is really at 85%+. That was the point. He's a Dem schill and a fraud.
they're lying through their teeth. you know that dbm. they'll do ANYTHING! so tomorrow is oct. are you hearing on your channels if we have anything in store for them? i'm not talking about policies and all that. people don't care. somehow now the queen of defund and open borders is joe arpaio. so what i'm talking about now are the dark arts. you understand. are you hearing that we have anything cooking along those lines?
So, in other words, there would need to be something of significance that would actually create such a wild, simultaneous swing. I'm not saying it isn't possible, but that is effectively what Silver seems to be banking on.
Otherwise, there is little reason to think one would sweep those seven states in question, given their different voting patterns and makeups.
Five bucks says they stop another assassination attempt against Trump, but this time the culprit is caught wearing a white guys for Harris shirt.
No, we concocted a hurricane to ravage only red states. Duh.
less impactful but one of montel williams' daughters is actually harris'
No, you're slightly misunderstanding how his type of modeling works. He runs simulations based on the current state of the polls, and states tend to shift in groups, so it's much more likely for PA and MI to both shift slightly red (or blue) than it is for one to shift in one direction, and the other in the opposite direction. All he's saying is that right now, when he runs the model, in 40% of the cases, these particular seven states shift enough to end up on the same side. I'm saying this isn't all that surprising, because they are so close right now, it doesn't take much to make that happen. You flip enough coins, and you'll get long streaks of if heads. Nothing mystical about it.
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Fair point, but I don't think you can deny the Comey letter may have tipped the scales.
He's always coaching, Goat. It's in his blood. It's why the Dream Team is so relentless and undefeated.
Executive Director of Real Clear Politics Tom Bevan really impressed me on C Span this morning.
His polling shows the presidential electoral race being hard to predict.
He left me with the impression that the GOP will take a narrow majority in the Senate. This along with winning the House and Presidency is a possibility.
So with a majority of the state legislatures, the Supreme Court, the Oval Office, and both houses of Congress as Trump might say, "Never in all of history has the country, or the world, had better leadership".
His polling shows the presidential electoral race being hard to predict.
He left me with the impression that the GOP will take a narrow majority in the Senate. This along with winning the House and Presidency is a possibility.
So with a majority of the state legislatures, the Supreme Court, the Oval Office, and both houses of Congress as Trump might say, "Never in all of history has the country, or the world, had better leadership".
Not sure, Coach. The rumor is he's been chewing on stones, doing burpees and watching David Goggins tik toks. He'll be ready.
At this point in the Trump national nightmare, would anyone actually be surprised? Sure, there would be a collective gag of disgust if there photo evidence, but zero surprise.
And let's be honest, after all the shit he's said and done, being Diddy's BFF wouldn't impact his base's opinion of him.
Wouldn’t impact me. The border numbers and pedophiles and rapists and murderers from this admin are more than enough to endure some freak parties. At this point only a fool would vote Harris
Is there supporting evidence of said pedophiles, rapists and murderers?
https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/undocumented-immigrant-offending-rate-lower-us-born-citizen-rate
I was just going to post something similar. I'm not saying that there haven't been rapists and murderers come into the country illegally, but it's not like every town has been invaded by pirates raping and pillaging.
I've heard Trump say it a lot, but he says a lot of stupid shit.
You have to go by the record. The comparative evidence. Biden/Harris on the border is disqualifying. They’ve imperiled us all.
And Trump is disqualified on the basis of foreign policy.
Luckily, my vote doesn't matter.
there is unfortunately. it's under hte new york immigration thread. crazed linked the letter the head of ice wrote. frankly it's shocking. and it has been going on for some time but the number on hte non confined docket doubled under harris/biden with biden's executive actions. 13,000 plus murderers. rapists. all of it. frightening. in fact 13,000 was the number of murders commited in 2023. so through policy we have let in that same number. again it's shocking
if you say so. i just don't know/follow that stuff more than passing.
According this article murder rates in the US dropped from 2022 to 2023 (from 21,156 in 2022 to around 18,450 in 2023).
And I found it hard to believe that 13,000 of the 18,450 murders in 2023 were committed by immigrants so I looked it up. This article clarifies the 13,000 number you referenced (bold and italics added by me):
More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide — either in the United States or abroad — are living outside of Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention, according to data ICE provided to Congress earlier this week.
I'm not saying that's not a bad thing, but it's a lot different than saying immigrants committed 13,000 murders in 2023. It also said that that 13,000 number spans at least two previous presidential administrations - including your boy Trump's.
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you misconstrued what i wrote. or i wasn't clear. i didn't say or intend to imply that. i used it as a basis for comparison.
More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide — either in the United States or abroad — are living outside of Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention, according to data ICE provided to Congress earlier this week.
the above is insane. and harris lies incessantly about it. they are convicts. as trump has said and people derided him over. the policy actions of biden, executive actions, are disgusting and dangerous. harris has no business being within a thousand miles of dc. she's dumb as shit and a serial liar. she's dangerous
Sounds like those numbers aren't exactly as clear as you're trying to make them sound, nor do we know when those 13k (if that number is even correct) came into the country.
You also have to ask why they aren't in custody. The obvious answer is that they've already served their sentence, and the only reason they are still here is because for some reason we can't enforce the deportation order (I believe one of the articles linked mentions that most are from countries that aren't currently accepting deportations from us).
I'm not sure what scary lefty policy they are trying to eviscerate with this story, but the truth is likely much more mundane.
what's not clear about them? frankly i suspect they are higher. as for when they came this has been ongoing from obama through trump through biden. the material difference is that trump took action to curb the number of crossings. biden took action to open the border. so the number on the nonconfined docket, which comprises actual criminals, murderers and rapists, despite harris' incessant lies to the contrary, went from 3 plus million to 7 plus million
