DBM WE'RE COOKED 7 SWING STATE SWEEP NATE SILVER
- Thread starter mcmurtry66
- Start date
shhhhhh i wanted to poke dbm a little this am. get him cookin
I didn't click on your link but Nate Silver is the biggest fraud ever. He's the Jim Cramer of political predictions. His claim to fame was Obama's own pollster once giving him their own internal polling.
Pretty wild that he actually thinks there is a 40% chance that either sweeps. That seems quite high to me given how different some of those are.
Am I remembering it wrong?...or did you link a Silver poll this summer that was favorable to Trump?
I think it probably speaks to just how close those states are this year. So it only takes a little movement in either direction to start tipping them all.
Just one event right ahead of the election like the Comey letter could do it.
He had a post a couple of weeks ago in the Harris / Waltz interview thread that said "Even Nate Silver now his favored. All the people that were the most accurate in 2016 and 2020 see him as a heavy favorite." I believe he was saying at the time that Trump was going to win because even democratic-leaning Silver had Trump winning (though the "most accurate" sentence afterward was kinda confusing because it implied that Silver was considered part of that grouping).
Hillary is an idiot. She can scream from now till judgement day that the Comey reinvestigation was the reason that she lost and she would still be just as wrong. DELETING the emails is what lost her the election, not Comey's investigation of it.
The corrupt crooked vile Dems have an October surprise!!!!!
Trump covered in baby oil at a Diddy freak off!!!!!!
If Silver has the race at 50/50 then you know Trump is really at 85%+. That was the point. He's a Dem schill and a fraud.
they're lying through their teeth. you know that dbm. they'll do ANYTHING! so tomorrow is oct. are you hearing on your channels if we have anything in store for them? i'm not talking about policies and all that. people don't care. somehow now the queen of defund and open borders is joe arpaio. so what i'm talking about now are the dark arts. you understand. are you hearing that we have anything cooking along those lines?
So, in other words, there would need to be something of significance that would actually create such a wild, simultaneous swing. I'm not saying it isn't possible, but that is effectively what Silver seems to be banking on.
Otherwise, there is little reason to think one would sweep those seven states in question, given their different voting patterns and makeups.
Five bucks says they stop another assassination attempt against Trump, but this time the culprit is caught wearing a white guys for Harris shirt.
No, we concocted a hurricane to ravage only red states. Duh.
less impactful but one of montel williams' daughters is actually harris'
No, you're slightly misunderstanding how his type of modeling works. He runs simulations based on the current state of the polls, and states tend to shift in groups, so it's much more likely for PA and MI to both shift slightly red (or blue) than it is for one to shift in one direction, and the other in the opposite direction. All he's saying is that right now, when he runs the model, in 40% of the cases, these particular seven states shift enough to end up on the same side. I'm saying this isn't all that surprising, because they are so close right now, it doesn't take much to make that happen. You flip enough coins, and you'll get long streaks if heads. Nothing mystical about it.
Fair point, but I don't think you can deny the Comey letter may have tipped the scales.
