Coronavirus
- Thread starter Cream&Crimson
- Start date
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trump-coronavirus-testing-blame-obama.html
This is a GREAT read about the Trump’s administration’s way of dealing with the potential pandemic. Before you read it, I’m sure you know what it’ll say.
In short, instead of actually doing things they could’ve done a while ago, the administration seeks to place blame elsewhere. When you dismantle the folks that should be your first line of defense, it’s not a surprise when our response has sucked so far. Public safety in government is not only good, it’s actually necessary.
I am thankful that they seem to finally be taking some active measures. It’s about damn time.
FWIW, I really hope they get it right. I’m not rooting for this to be bad- it’s probably going to be bad for a while, even with proper planning and protections. I had feared that Trump’s Dunning-Krugerness would harm us in terms of national security- but this is just as bad.
I second that response. WTF? Please name the measures a Trump’s admin have done to save lives at this point.
Up to this point, all they’ve done is make things worse than they should’ve been.
COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were floridly exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates were 10 times greater than the eventual CFR, of 1.28 percent. Epidemiologists think and quibble in terms of numerators and denominators—which patients were included when fractional estimates were calculated, which weren’t, were those decisions valid—and the results change a lot as a result. We are already seeing this. In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. If anything, it underscores just how early we are in this.
But the most straightforward and compelling evidence that the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is well under 1 percent comes not from statistical trends and methodological massage, but from data from the Diamond Princess cruise outbreak and subsequent quarantine off the coast of Japan.
But the most straightforward and compelling evidence that the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is well under 1 percent comes not from statistical trends and methodological massage, but from data from the Diamond Princess cruise outbreak and subsequent quarantine off the coast of Japan.
All of my girls are coming home from Italy, as schools and universities are closed until MidMarch, at least. I feel really bad for them, as they’ve lost the opportunity of a lifetime. Now they have to come home and take computer classes.
There was extrapolation in a post in this thread or another which put estimated seats at 640,000. Really, all Trump has done was limit some flights and tell evryone to calm down. It's not over yet, but seems like another crisis that won't materialized to me.
Only thing I can think of is that he seemed quick to ban travel to/from the affected region(s). Maybe it wasn't quick, but I recall some pundits complaining once he did it that he was being harsh.
Its was too late. I was bitching away at the S'pore govt for banning flights too late which resulted in the numbers blowing up. They did it in like the 2 or 3rd week of January.
Everyone should have banned certain flights back then. Viruses dont have good time management skills. They dont wait in line.
Chances are you could have banned them way back in Jan/Feb. But because the ignorance or lack of awareness or not wanting to cause any drop in the Dow, it was ignored.
First Brit coronavirus patient, 25, reveals how he was left 'suffocating' and unable to move
Connor Reed - who teaches English in Wuhan - started with just "the sniffles" in November but his symptoms quickly escalated leaving him in a nightmare of pain and not knowing whether he would survive
The first British person to catch the coronavirus has described how the deadly disease "hit me like a train" leaving him 'suffocating' and in blinding pain for weeks.
Connor Reed, an ex-pat living in Wuhan, started with "just a sniffle" on November 25 - a month before authorities officially announced the virus - but over the next three-and-a-half weeks he was taken to rock bottom and unable to move.
The 25-year-old, originally from Llandudno, North Wales, teaches English as a foreign language in the Chinese city where Covid-19 originated, and had initially tried to cure himself with whisky and honey - better known as a 'hot toddy'.
After seven days of feeling under the weather , Connor's symptoms started to drastically worsen, and fearing he had regular flu he then took time off from the school he had worked at for seven months.
"This is no longer just a cold. I ache all over, my head is thumping, my eyes are burning, my throat is constricted," he wrote in a diary entry published by the Daily Mail .
"The cold has travelled down to my chest and I have a hacking cough. This is flu, and it’s going to take more than a mug of hot honey, with or without the magic whisky ingredient, to make me feel better."
The next day Connor, who lives alone, told his bosses he would unlikely be back to work for a week, admitting "even my bones are aching", while he could not get out of bed without pain and even coughing hurt.
A little stray kitten that hung around in Connor's apartment suddenly looked unwell and didn't want any of the food he offered her - before tragedy struck and she died on Day 11.
However, what Connor would quickly learn was only the calm before the storm, miraculously he was beginning to feel better, as if the flu had lifted.
But by the following day he relapsed and his breathing had become "laboured", he wrote in his journal and just going to the bathroom "leaves me panting and exhausted".
"I’m sweating, burning up, dizzy and shivering. The television is on but I can’t make sense of it. This is a nightmare," he continued.
And by that afternoon, December 6, he felt like he was "suffocating", adding: "I have never been this ill in my life."
"I can’t take more than sips of air and, when I breathe out, my lungs sound like a paper bag being crumpled up. This isn’t right. I need to see a doctor."
Instead, he decided to hold it together long enough to get a taxi to Zhongnan University Hospital because he knew there would be British doctors there studying.
"It isn’t rational but, in my feverish state, I want to see a British doctor," he wrote.
At the university, Connor was diagnosed with pneumonia and sent for a "battery of tests" which lasted six hours.
Instead he used Tiger Balm, which he described as "like Vick's vapour rub on steroids".
After just over two weeks, Connor said the days were blurring into one and he decided to call his mum in Australia - having initially put it off because she would "only worry" and try get on a plane to come see him.
By Day 19 he was well enough to "stagger out of doors" to get more Tiger Balm.
"My sinuses are agony, and my eardrums feel ready to pop. I know I shouldn’t but I’m massaging my inner ear with cotton buds, trying to take the pain away."
"I prefer to beat this with traditional remedies if I can," Connor explained. "It helps, simply knowing that this is pneumonia. I’m only 25 and generally healthy: I tell myself there’s no reason for alarm."
However, he was reluctant because calling emergency services in China means paying for the ambulance call-out himself, which is expensive, he explained.
"I'm ill, but I don't think I'm dying - am I?"
However, by Day 24 - just under a week before Christmas - he was better.
12 days later on New Year's Eve, he got a tip off from a friend that Chinese officials are "concerned about a new virus that is taking hold in the city".
"There are rumours about a curfew or travel restrictions. I know what this will mean — panic buying in the shops. I need to stock up on essentials before everyone else does."
By New Year's Day everyone in Wuhan was "told to stay in doors" with doctors describing the symptoms he had just agonisingly fought off.
On January 16 the hospital informed Connor that he had been infected with the Wuhan coronavirus and while he was pleased he would now be immune, he still had to wear a face mask outside his apartment or risk arrest.
"My nose has cleared enough to smell what my neighbours are cooking, and I think I might have an appetite for the first time in nearly two weeks," he wrote.
A couple of days later the pneumonia had gone but plans of returning to work were halted because "I ache as if I've been run over by a steamroller".
But back at his apartment he was reluctant to take the antibiotics prescribed, worried "my body will become resistant" and if he got really ill they wouldn't work.
By the end of the month, he said the "whole world has now heard about coronavirus" and things spread on Facebook leading to his local Llandudno newspaper trying to get in touch.
He wondered whether he had caught the virus at a fish market, where he does much of his shopping - and which many experts believe had started the spread.
"Since the outbreak became international news, I’ve seen hysterical reports (especially in the U.S. media) that exotic meats such as bat and even koala are on sale at the fish market," he wrote. "I’ve never seen that.
"The only slightly weird sight I’ve seen is the whole pig and lamb carcasses for sale, with their heads on," he added.
On February 4 Connor said he was concerned many news outlets were reporting he had apparently claimed he cured himself with hot toddies.
"I attempt to explain that I had no idea at the time what was wrong with me — but that isn’t what they want to hear.
"I wish it had been that easy," he added.
The UK saw its biggest day-on-day increase in coronavirus cases on Wednesday, with 87 people now confirmed to have the virus in the country.
Connor Reed - who teaches English in Wuhan - started with just "the sniffles" in November but his symptoms quickly escalated leaving him in a nightmare of pain and not knowing whether he would survive
The first British person to catch the coronavirus has described how the deadly disease "hit me like a train" leaving him 'suffocating' and in blinding pain for weeks.
Connor Reed, an ex-pat living in Wuhan, started with "just a sniffle" on November 25 - a month before authorities officially announced the virus - but over the next three-and-a-half weeks he was taken to rock bottom and unable to move.
The 25-year-old, originally from Llandudno, North Wales, teaches English as a foreign language in the Chinese city where Covid-19 originated, and had initially tried to cure himself with whisky and honey - better known as a 'hot toddy'.
After seven days of feeling under the weather , Connor's symptoms started to drastically worsen, and fearing he had regular flu he then took time off from the school he had worked at for seven months.
"This is no longer just a cold. I ache all over, my head is thumping, my eyes are burning, my throat is constricted," he wrote in a diary entry published by the Daily Mail .
"The cold has travelled down to my chest and I have a hacking cough. This is flu, and it’s going to take more than a mug of hot honey, with or without the magic whisky ingredient, to make me feel better."
The next day Connor, who lives alone, told his bosses he would unlikely be back to work for a week, admitting "even my bones are aching", while he could not get out of bed without pain and even coughing hurt.
A little stray kitten that hung around in Connor's apartment suddenly looked unwell and didn't want any of the food he offered her - before tragedy struck and she died on Day 11.
However, what Connor would quickly learn was only the calm before the storm, miraculously he was beginning to feel better, as if the flu had lifted.
But by the following day he relapsed and his breathing had become "laboured", he wrote in his journal and just going to the bathroom "leaves me panting and exhausted".
"I’m sweating, burning up, dizzy and shivering. The television is on but I can’t make sense of it. This is a nightmare," he continued.
And by that afternoon, December 6, he felt like he was "suffocating", adding: "I have never been this ill in my life."
"I can’t take more than sips of air and, when I breathe out, my lungs sound like a paper bag being crumpled up. This isn’t right. I need to see a doctor."
Instead, he decided to hold it together long enough to get a taxi to Zhongnan University Hospital because he knew there would be British doctors there studying.
"It isn’t rational but, in my feverish state, I want to see a British doctor," he wrote.
At the university, Connor was diagnosed with pneumonia and sent for a "battery of tests" which lasted six hours.
Instead he used Tiger Balm, which he described as "like Vick's vapour rub on steroids".
After just over two weeks, Connor said the days were blurring into one and he decided to call his mum in Australia - having initially put it off because she would "only worry" and try get on a plane to come see him.
By Day 19 he was well enough to "stagger out of doors" to get more Tiger Balm.
"My sinuses are agony, and my eardrums feel ready to pop. I know I shouldn’t but I’m massaging my inner ear with cotton buds, trying to take the pain away."
"I prefer to beat this with traditional remedies if I can," Connor explained. "It helps, simply knowing that this is pneumonia. I’m only 25 and generally healthy: I tell myself there’s no reason for alarm."
However, he was reluctant because calling emergency services in China means paying for the ambulance call-out himself, which is expensive, he explained.
"I'm ill, but I don't think I'm dying - am I?"
However, by Day 24 - just under a week before Christmas - he was better.
12 days later on New Year's Eve, he got a tip off from a friend that Chinese officials are "concerned about a new virus that is taking hold in the city".
"There are rumours about a curfew or travel restrictions. I know what this will mean — panic buying in the shops. I need to stock up on essentials before everyone else does."
By New Year's Day everyone in Wuhan was "told to stay in doors" with doctors describing the symptoms he had just agonisingly fought off.
On January 16 the hospital informed Connor that he had been infected with the Wuhan coronavirus and while he was pleased he would now be immune, he still had to wear a face mask outside his apartment or risk arrest.
"My nose has cleared enough to smell what my neighbours are cooking, and I think I might have an appetite for the first time in nearly two weeks," he wrote.
A couple of days later the pneumonia had gone but plans of returning to work were halted because "I ache as if I've been run over by a steamroller".
But back at his apartment he was reluctant to take the antibiotics prescribed, worried "my body will become resistant" and if he got really ill they wouldn't work.
By the end of the month, he said the "whole world has now heard about coronavirus" and things spread on Facebook leading to his local Llandudno newspaper trying to get in touch.
He wondered whether he had caught the virus at a fish market, where he does much of his shopping - and which many experts believe had started the spread.
"Since the outbreak became international news, I’ve seen hysterical reports (especially in the U.S. media) that exotic meats such as bat and even koala are on sale at the fish market," he wrote. "I’ve never seen that.
"The only slightly weird sight I’ve seen is the whole pig and lamb carcasses for sale, with their heads on," he added.
On February 4 Connor said he was concerned many news outlets were reporting he had apparently claimed he cured himself with hot toddies.
"I attempt to explain that I had no idea at the time what was wrong with me — but that isn’t what they want to hear.
"I wish it had been that easy," he added.
The UK saw its biggest day-on-day increase in coronavirus cases on Wednesday, with 87 people now confirmed to have the virus in the country.
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Just when ya think the man can’t get more stupid. Trump: I think the WHO estimate of 3.4 percent Coronavirus death rate globally is really a false number adding this is just my hunch but personally I would say the number is way under 1 percent.
Because, as always, he doesn’t believe the experts.
Because, as always, he doesn’t believe the experts.
There are two parts to this statement:
1) There is an obvious case where the WHO may be overestimating b/c of the number of unreported cases where people overcame the illness - hasn't the world been skeptical of the Chinese reported figures from the outset?
2) He's an idiot because he disagrees with scientists without providing any additional support. If he was ever competent enough to explain his basis for a statement, people MIGHT take him seriously (they wouldn't, but let's just pretend).
Not really. You have pushing that batty narrative a bit. But no one over here things its under-reported or over-reported. It's to the 'best of their knowledge'. The local province govt leaders that delayed the reporting of the virus outbreak and they have all been removed by Beijing a couple of months ago.
The WHO has a joint task force with the Health authorities in China working on this.
Otherwise, the WHO has praised China for their response and ability to control the numbers, albeit draconian.
But as I said before, the longer the delay in controlling the spread, the more draconian the measures needed. In fact, Italy is starting to implement such draconian measures as we speak.
lol pushing that narrative? There are hundreds or articles and expert statements. I heard it first on NPR of all places. I’m sorry you are no longer living in reality.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-deaths-idUSKBN1ZZ1AH
https://www.ft.com/content/d3d41c7c-56db-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc
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Coronavirus: There are two types
‘Two types of coronavirus’
The coronavirus has evolved into two major types, with differing transmission rates and geographical distribution, according to a study published in the National Science Review on Tuesday.
A group of Chinese scientists analysed 103 coronavirus genomes and identified mutations in 149 sites across the strains.
They found that one type, which they called the L type, was more prevalent than the other, the S type, meaning it was more infectious. They also found that the L type had evolved from the S type, and that the L type was far more widespread before January 7 and in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.
Human actions soon after the outbreak was discovered in December may have changed the abundance of each type, the report said, citing the Chinese central and local governments’ drastic containment measures including lockdowns of cities, which it said may have curbed the spread of the L type.
The researchers said follow-up studies were needed to form a better understanding of the virus’ evolution and spread.
The spread of infection through faeces and urine has been recognised as an additional mode of transmission in China’s latest coronavirus diagnosis and treatment plan.
Citing research in which traces of coronavirus were found in patients’ stool samples, the NHC’s plan added contact with and aerosolisation of contaminated faeces and urine as transmission modes. Aerosolisation refers to conversion into particles small enough to be carried in the air.
Chinese health authorities have said that respiratory droplets and close contact with infected people are the main ways the coronavirus is spread. The NHC added in its previous treatment plan that aerosol transmission was possible for those in a relatively closed environment for long periods.
‘Two types of coronavirus’
The coronavirus has evolved into two major types, with differing transmission rates and geographical distribution, according to a study published in the National Science Review on Tuesday.
A group of Chinese scientists analysed 103 coronavirus genomes and identified mutations in 149 sites across the strains.
They found that one type, which they called the L type, was more prevalent than the other, the S type, meaning it was more infectious. They also found that the L type had evolved from the S type, and that the L type was far more widespread before January 7 and in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.
Human actions soon after the outbreak was discovered in December may have changed the abundance of each type, the report said, citing the Chinese central and local governments’ drastic containment measures including lockdowns of cities, which it said may have curbed the spread of the L type.
The researchers said follow-up studies were needed to form a better understanding of the virus’ evolution and spread.
The spread of infection through faeces and urine has been recognised as an additional mode of transmission in China’s latest coronavirus diagnosis and treatment plan.
Citing research in which traces of coronavirus were found in patients’ stool samples, the NHC’s plan added contact with and aerosolisation of contaminated faeces and urine as transmission modes. Aerosolisation refers to conversion into particles small enough to be carried in the air.
Chinese health authorities have said that respiratory droplets and close contact with infected people are the main ways the coronavirus is spread. The NHC added in its previous treatment plan that aerosol transmission was possible for those in a relatively closed environment for long periods.
Coronavirus lingers in rooms and toilets but disinfectants kill it
New research from Singapore published Wednesday showed that patients with the novel coronavirus extensively contaminate their bedrooms and bathrooms, underscoring the need to routinely clean high-touch surfaces, basins and toilet bowls.
The virus was however killed by twice-a-day cleaning of surfaces and daily cleaning of floors with a commonly used disinfectant -- suggesting that current decontamination measures are sufficient as long as people adhere to them.
The research letter was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) and comes after cases in China where the pathogen spread extensively through hospitals, infecting dozens of health care workers and other patients.
This led scientists to believe that, beyond catching the infection through coughing, environmental contamination was an important factor in the disease's transmission, but its extent was unclear.
Researchers at Singapore's National Centre for Infectious Diseases and DSO National Laboratories looked at the cases of three patients who were held in isolation rooms between late January and early February.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is why containing the spread is critical. Once the cases overloads the healthcare infrastructure to its breaking point, individual care falls off the cliff, facilities are over-utilised -- like in China where they have quite a few in a ward. Then the fatality numbers will rocket.
Here, they managed to the limit spread so its still within the capacity of the infrastructure and each patient to have their own room with a high level of patient care. This is part of the reason there isn't one fatality yet.
New research from Singapore published Wednesday showed that patients with the novel coronavirus extensively contaminate their bedrooms and bathrooms, underscoring the need to routinely clean high-touch surfaces, basins and toilet bowls.
The virus was however killed by twice-a-day cleaning of surfaces and daily cleaning of floors with a commonly used disinfectant -- suggesting that current decontamination measures are sufficient as long as people adhere to them.
The research letter was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) and comes after cases in China where the pathogen spread extensively through hospitals, infecting dozens of health care workers and other patients.
This led scientists to believe that, beyond catching the infection through coughing, environmental contamination was an important factor in the disease's transmission, but its extent was unclear.
Researchers at Singapore's National Centre for Infectious Diseases and DSO National Laboratories looked at the cases of three patients who were held in isolation rooms between late January and early February.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is why containing the spread is critical. Once the cases overloads the healthcare infrastructure to its breaking point, individual care falls off the cliff, facilities are over-utilised -- like in China where they have quite a few in a ward. Then the fatality numbers will rocket.
Here, they managed to the limit spread so its still within the capacity of the infrastructure and each patient to have their own room with a high level of patient care. This is part of the reason there isn't one fatality yet.
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I'm guessing he's had his flu vaccination. If he has he should tour a hospital were they are treating people for the virus. I mean it's just like the flu and the same vaccine and his superior genetics will render him immune.
Also listened to a podcast that talked about one of Trump’s meeting first meetings with experts, where he got furious and was arguing with them about how to present the facts. They have to stand there and look embarrassed while he spouts his lies, and then try to contradict him without saying he’s lying. But sure, he’s listening to all the expert advice. It’s amazing to me the same people that were scared to death of Ebola are now making fun of overreacting to Corona virus. And Trump’s tweets about Ebola......well you can imagine.m
Guy who was quarantined appears on Fox & Friends and can't stop coughing. OMG. Then he drinks out of his baby daughter's water bottle. (Warning: Left wing youtube show).
Not sure if this is funny or sad.
Not sure if this is funny or sad.
Well, that video had to inspire a lot of confidence for the Iranian folks. Good grief.
A View from China
TPM Reader PH gives us a wild, bracing, sobering view from China. This is a must-read:
TPM Reader PH gives us a wild, bracing, sobering view from China. This is a must-read:
I’ve been following the COVID-19 cataclysm, as I believe it is, very closely. One reason is that I had the fortunate timing of moving to Beijing from San Francisco in January 2020. I’m far from any kind of expert on China or epidemiology, but as a longtime TPM reader and Prime AF member, I thought I’d share some experiences and thoughts.
The governmental response has been extraordinary, and the national quarantine is total. In February, I only had two places I could go: the place I was staying and the grocery store Carrefour. When entering either, I have my temperature taken by a security guard, and if it were elevated I would go into mandated quarantine. I got caught in a non-tier 1 city for the month after LNY, and for weeks returning to Beijing was out of the question. After I finally returned to Beijing, I received regular phone calls from the police to confirm I was abiding by the self-quarantine, including a door check. Recently it has been loosening up, but most white collar workers are still opting to work from home. Masks are required and ubiquitous. From a personal tech perspective, we are able to have groceries cheaply delivered twice per week, and when we purchase goods in person it’s all self-checkout via QR code, as potentially virus-carrying cash hasn’t been too common in China for awhile. In the past week, the only people I’ve interacted with in person are my security guard and my girlfriend.
Once the threat of COVID-19 was identified, the government was willing and able to sacrifice the economy–what too many Western observers think of as its sole legitimizer–and put all of Chinese society on a total wartime footing against the coronavirus, in the span of one or two weeks. And it’s been wildly effective. It’s really the most impressive deployment of state capacity I’ve seen. It wouldn’t happen in the USA, but moreover it couldn’t happen in the USA even if we wanted it to.
I joke with my friends now that I have a sofa they can crash on if things get bad stateside, but I’m only half joking. Singapore and Taiwan responded to coronavirus very effectively (preventing even the start of community spread), South Korea competently, Italy with a level of mediocrity, and Iran with deep incompetence. The US will likely end up somewhere between Italy and Iran. Because of the test kit fiasco and the resultant lack of rigorous contact tracing, as well as messaging from national leadership, we don’t even know where we stand now, and in the early stages of exponential growth that’s a very bad place to be. The government is unable and unwilling to take the actions necessary to slow the spread, apparently for fear of spooking the markets, which Trump identifies as *his* sole legitimizer. All of that is to say, I wouldn’t be surprised if China issues a travel ban
on Americans by April.
Amartya Sen argued democracy was the cure for disasters such as famine, because it and the free press facilitate the flow of information from the reality on the ground to the national leadership and provides the incentives to address issues correctly. And that argument still has some power: the disconnect between medical officials and bureaucrats in Hubei and the national Chinese leadership contributed to this disaster. But in a post-truth world where power wills its own reality, does democracy still have those feedback mechanisms that give it the edge? When I talk to people in China, the general sense is that China essentially got a pop quiz and scored a B+, while other countries are getting a take home exam and failing it. Buy into that analogy or not, if the USA and the West more broadly flunk this test, the Chinese model will be gaining legitimacy over democracy, not losing it. And that loss in legitimacy will happen everywhere, not just in China.
I can't imagine what is essentially marshal law in America. Crazy.The governmental response has been extraordinary, and the national quarantine is total. In February, I only had two places I could go: the place I was staying and the grocery store Carrefour. When entering either, I have my temperature taken by a security guard, and if it were elevated I would go into mandated quarantine. I got caught in a non-tier 1 city for the month after LNY, and for weeks returning to Beijing was out of the question. After I finally returned to Beijing, I received regular phone calls from the police to confirm I was abiding by the self-quarantine, including a door check. Recently it has been loosening up, but most white collar workers are still opting to work from home. Masks are required and ubiquitous. From a personal tech perspective, we are able to have groceries cheaply delivered twice per week, and when we purchase goods in person it’s all self-checkout via QR code, as potentially virus-carrying cash hasn’t been too common in China for awhile. In the past week, the only people I’ve interacted with in person are my security guard and my girlfriend.
Once the threat of COVID-19 was identified, the government was willing and able to sacrifice the economy–what too many Western observers think of as its sole legitimizer–and put all of Chinese society on a total wartime footing against the coronavirus, in the span of one or two weeks. And it’s been wildly effective. It’s really the most impressive deployment of state capacity I’ve seen. It wouldn’t happen in the USA, but moreover it couldn’t happen in the USA even if we wanted it to.
I joke with my friends now that I have a sofa they can crash on if things get bad stateside, but I’m only half joking. Singapore and Taiwan responded to coronavirus very effectively (preventing even the start of community spread), South Korea competently, Italy with a level of mediocrity, and Iran with deep incompetence. The US will likely end up somewhere between Italy and Iran. Because of the test kit fiasco and the resultant lack of rigorous contact tracing, as well as messaging from national leadership, we don’t even know where we stand now, and in the early stages of exponential growth that’s a very bad place to be. The government is unable and unwilling to take the actions necessary to slow the spread, apparently for fear of spooking the markets, which Trump identifies as *his* sole legitimizer. All of that is to say, I wouldn’t be surprised if China issues a travel ban
on Americans by April.
Amartya Sen argued democracy was the cure for disasters such as famine, because it and the free press facilitate the flow of information from the reality on the ground to the national leadership and provides the incentives to address issues correctly. And that argument still has some power: the disconnect between medical officials and bureaucrats in Hubei and the national Chinese leadership contributed to this disaster. But in a post-truth world where power wills its own reality, does democracy still have those feedback mechanisms that give it the edge? When I talk to people in China, the general sense is that China essentially got a pop quiz and scored a B+, while other countries are getting a take home exam and failing it. Buy into that analogy or not, if the USA and the West more broadly flunk this test, the Chinese model will be gaining legitimacy over democracy, not losing it. And that loss in legitimacy will happen everywhere, not just in China.
Hyperbole and anecdotes from a random, nameless internet poster aren't something I'm putting much interest in.
same as the dramatic writing of one persons experience with the virus that is accepted by some as normal
Sharing his personal experience in China is fine..... then in the 2nd half of it, he acts like a WHO expert.... even though he admits at the beginning to not knowing anything. Wouldn't expect less from TPM, however.
