In spite of the suggestion by the knowledgeable/honorable/esteemed Devin Nunes, to go to your local pub, I’m guessing the bandaid will be ripped off this week and all the things you mention above will be closed.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Cream&Crimson
- Start date
In spite of the suggestion by the knowledgeable/honorable/esteemed Devin Nunes, to go to your local pub, I’m guessing the bandaid will be ripped off this week and all the things you mention above will be closed.
Could the new Fed rate cut fend that off? I really don't claim to know enough about the macro shit to know if that's even a dumb question or not.
Having tests would probably help. They have no way of doing any type of tracking to fight this. We're behind SK's response already and they seem to be one of the very few who had a working plan. We don't even know if our healthcare workers on the frontline are actually clean or infectious. We're basically following an even more inept version of the Italian model. Then when you see a vid of a girl doing a "corona challenge" by licking an airplane toilet seat as an attempt to prove it's a media hoax, you realize that our public currently is dangerously misinformed.
Yeah for sure. Containment/mitigation without testing still leaves us in the dark. Ugh.
When it comes to explaining why the market goes up or down you can easily find highly paid, extremely intelligent experts that will express completely opposite opinions as to what impact an action will have on the markets.
I don’t know what the rate cut will do mid to long-term but very short term (I.e. tomorrow) I think that at this point the cut will actually spark some worry that the fed is panicking and/or that this shows the fed thinks things are worse than we think. Beyond that, the rapidly increasing number of closures (schools, restaurants, bars, etc) this weekend is making it very clear that the financial/economic ramifications are going to be worse than many anticipated.
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What a logistical nightmare though when you begin to get into the minutiae of widespread testing for a nation of our size - not to mention the significant fringe folks that would deem same intrusive of their autonomy blah blah blah.
A CORONAVIRUS patient in Kentucky has been placed under 24/7 armed guard after refusing to self-isolate.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/539494/coronavirus-kentucky-patient-self-isolate-armed-guard/
It’s simple. Disagree in good faith or not.
You may have to stop lying to yourself first, making it one step more complicated.
There ya go. What a mess. I just got a text that my kid's school is closed until April 3. This is going to be a brutal few weeks gang lol.
Not me. Given the circumstances if my cable goes out they'll have to check me into the nervous hospital stat.
Unfortunately some people are going to die. And rarely will they be there right ones.
That's a bold statement that i obviously hope is inaccurate, but who knows. Best case scenario we're 8 months out for vaccine/meds.
I think the markets are gonna get a LOT worse before they get better. It's going to be rough sledding for all for awhile.
Thats why you start early and keep it small. Wea re only at 200+ after 2+ months of this crap.
I can see every single case here:
https://infographics.channelnewsasi...??cid=h3_referral_inarticlelinks_24082018_cna
Keeping it small is the key -- this way you provide the best care quality per patient and that's why -- touch wood, we have ZERO fatalities after a couple of months.
What has been trending are the imports. That's the most random and toughest.
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Okay, lollipop.
It wasn't the 'there' it was your reprehensible theme that the people dying are not the "right" people as you obviously have your list of who should be dying. That makes you an inhuman ghoul.
The list would be by application. An asshole that has to be put under armed guard so he doesn't kill my parents has applied.
Francis.
It will be at least until the end of the year.
The biggest impact of the epidemic is financial and bankruptcies. It was allowed to fester this long before any attempts to control the spread has only led to some major long-tail financial impacts later.
On a positive note....we have a president with a lot of experience dealing with business bankruptcies/closures.
It's really depressing that a public health crisis is a partisan issue. There are multiple right wingers on this site that have called this a hoax driven by the media and as a way to get Trump. You can't fix people that stupid.... but that polling shows it's a widespread affliction.
EDIT: COULD BE FAKE
Summary of Goldman Sachs Investor call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
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This matches up well with what I've heard as well. What's with the disclaimer at top?
second hand from the internet and I’ve seen one or two people claim it is true or was fabricated
Testing for first attempt at a vaccine about to begin:
https://apnews.com/8089a3d0ec8f9fde971bddd7b3aa2ba1
https://apnews.com/8089a3d0ec8f9fde971bddd7b3aa2ba1
I think 3-5m US deaths over the next year is a possibility.... but how much of that is an increase over people that would have died anyway? Really hard to pinpoint. I have a 96 yr old grandfather who has been struggling with random viruses for the last year or so. Was in the hospital last fall for a while. Yet recovers and is good. If he gets this, I think his odds are extremely poor.
Let us pretend you were on a cruise ship on a chilly night with a rough sea when the ship strikes something and all passengers are ordered to lifeboats. We know from past real life experiences that some will fight to get in first. But most people are hardwired to hang back, to make sure the problem is real enough to warrant the fairly massive inconvenience.
Then the captain comes on the loudspeaker and says, "we have tremendous control of the flooding". Does that encourage or discourage people from getting into lifeboats?
I was just reading a Facebook post from Governor Holcomb about the state's response. There are people who still believe this pandemic is a hoax, or blown up out of proportion. Every time Trump says something like that it gives those people something to hang their hats on.
People like Falwell Jr, who says it is nothing but a North Korean bio weapon designed to make Trump look bad. People like the national club sport for college wrestling which held their championships over the weekend. Google what people putting on the event, including reps from Liberty University, said about COVID-19.
There is no way "But it is something we have tremendous control of" fits with the rest of the message. We need people to get into their lifeboats. Dr. Fauci is clear on that, I have never heard him say we have this contained or controlled.
Then the captain comes on the loudspeaker and says, "we have tremendous control of the flooding". Does that encourage or discourage people from getting into lifeboats?
I was just reading a Facebook post from Governor Holcomb about the state's response. There are people who still believe this pandemic is a hoax, or blown up out of proportion. Every time Trump says something like that it gives those people something to hang their hats on.
People like Falwell Jr, who says it is nothing but a North Korean bio weapon designed to make Trump look bad. People like the national club sport for college wrestling which held their championships over the weekend. Google what people putting on the event, including reps from Liberty University, said about COVID-19.
There is no way "But it is something we have tremendous control of" fits with the rest of the message. We need people to get into their lifeboats. Dr. Fauci is clear on that, I have never heard him say we have this contained or controlled.
TDS is how.... this should be the last of things that they try to use to discredit him. They are down to Hail Mary’s in hopes of a win in November. Nothing new here
I feel like closing shop in the country for what will probably be at least a month or more, the economy will come to a screeching halt. To depths we haven't seen in generations.
Is the government able to suspend all loans (business, mortgage, car..etc), and use the funding to pay the interest? It doesnt solve for other bills but that seems like a much more organized way of helping stave off a pause in our society than creating a million separate funds. You cannot close off every sector or 2 weeks and not collapse the economy and this will last at least a month and my guess is likely to be 2 months.
Is the government able to suspend all loans (business, mortgage, car..etc), and use the funding to pay the interest? It doesnt solve for other bills but that seems like a much more organized way of helping stave off a pause in our society than creating a million separate funds. You cannot close off every sector or 2 weeks and not collapse the economy and this will last at least a month and my guess is likely to be 2 months.
I'm at a loss over the entire thing. How is there any way to gauge or predict the duration of this without widespread testing?
The tone from the administration has markedly changed today. There were Trumps much more somber comments, and this from the Surgeon General:
"We are at a critical inflection point in this country, people," U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told Fox News. "When you look at the projections, there's every chance that we could be Italy."
"We are at a critical inflection point in this country, people," U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told Fox News. "When you look at the projections, there's every chance that we could be Italy."
