Contemplating A Nuclear Iran

[iu_a_att]

A set of articles about how Iran may very shortly present the United States with a choice between attacking and allowing Iran to get a nuclear bomb.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/06/opinion/irans-crisis-nuclear-expansion.html

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR310.html

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/01/how-close-is-iran-to-a-nuclear-bomb-really/
Iran has the technical capability but has not shown great interest in possessing either Nukes or bio weapons.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34544.pdf
Iran can make a nuke in between 1-3 years.

Mega donor Sheldon Adelson recommends preemptively nuking Iran and threatening a second one on Tehran

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists on risks of nuclear war against Iran. https://thebulletin.org/2019/07/a-nuclear-war-in-the-persian-gulf/

Israeli preemptive strikes. https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-06-21/israel-could-strike-first-tensions-iran-flare

A very comprehensive reporting of the Israel/US/Iran nexus. Takes the story from the Bush administration up to the present. Seems like there is a very good chance of the U.S. or Israel attacking Iran.

 

[twenty02]

A set of articles about how Iran may very shortly present the United States with a choice between attacking and allowing Iran to get a nuclear bomb.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/06/opinion/irans-crisis-nuclear-expansion.html

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR310.html

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/01/how-close-is-iran-to-a-nuclear-bomb-really/
Iran has the technical capability but has not shown great interest in possessing either Nukes or bio weapons.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34544.pdf
Iran can make a nuke in between 1-3 years.

Mega donor Sheldon Adelson recommends preemptively nuking Iran and threatening a second one on Tehran

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Bulletin of Atomic Scientists on risks of nuclear war against Iran. https://thebulletin.org/2019/07/a-nuclear-war-in-the-persian-gulf/

Israeli preemptive strikes. https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-06-21/israel-could-strike-first-tensions-iran-flare

A very comprehensive reporting of the Israel/US/Iran nexus. Takes the story from the Bush administration up to the present. Seems like there is a very good chance of the U.S. or Israel attacking Iran.

This will continue to play out in small increments for years to come.

I see basically zero chance that Trump attacks Iran (directly) ... literally none.... outside of Iran doing something very provocative.

Iran attempted to save face tonight.... very doubtful you'll see anything beyond that.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Iran attempted to save face tonight.... very doubtful you'll see anything beyond that.

At least one side is run by adults, right?

 

[twenty02]

At least one side is run by adults, right?

Iranian regime is most worried about survival (from both internal and external threats). That's not a concern for the US.

I'd be interested in hearing from @toastedbread how he ever sees the mullahs falling.... and how it would actually play out. Or will the world just live with these nutbags for the rest of our lives?

This is literally the only state on earth that dares to fire ballistic missiles at US forces.

 

[Rockport Zebra]

At least one side is run by adults, right?

You make me want to puke. We may be wrong but they are not right. See you in November.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

You make me want to puke. We may be wrong but they are not right. See you in November.

You missed that one by a mile, RZ.

 

[iu_a_att]

This will continue to play out in small increments for years to come.

I see basically zero chance that Trump attacks Iran (directly) ... literally none.... outside of Iran doing something very provocative.

Iran attempted to save face tonight.... very doubtful you'll see anything beyond that.

If trump isn’t going to attack then Iran is free and even compelled to do more. Will they go nuclear as fast as possible? I totally agree that the implications here are long term.

 

[sglowrider]

Nostrodamus Don:

 

[Sage Kelly]

Iranian regime is most worried about survival (from both internal and external threats). That's not a concern for the US.

I'd be interested in hearing from @toastedbread how he ever sees the mullahs falling.... and how it would actually play out. Or will the world just live with these nutbags for the rest of our lives?

This is literally the only state on earth that dares to fire ballistic missiles at US forces.

He's answered as much that Iran will never change in his view. So we are stuck with these shit bags in power for our lives.

 

[iubud]

If trump isn’t going to attack then Iran is free and even compelled to do more. Will they go nuclear as fast as possible? I totally agree that the implications here are long term.

It will be important to know what the damage from Iran's attempt is. Do Iran's missiles suck that bad, or did they purposely miss causing major damage or injuries? They could have targeted US only bases, but they didn't. They fired missiles and can claim the attack killed many Americans. That allows them to save face to their people and prevents an automatic response. They didn't hide the attack and we reportedly had advance warning it was coming.

Assuming the reports are true that we suffered no casualties, we took out Soleimani without consequences. If they missed on purpose, it shows they respect our capabilities and that the threat of losing major assets is real. Who knows, maybe Iran learned there is no benefit to attacking the US directly or with their proxy terror groups.

 

[toastedbread]

Iranian regime is most worried about survival (from both internal and external threats). That's not a concern for the US.

I'd be interested in hearing from @toastedbread how he ever sees the mullahs falling.... and how it would actually play out. Or will the world just live with these nutbags for the rest of our lives?

This is literally the only state on earth that dares to fire ballistic missiles at US forces.

Did anyone forsee the soviet union falling?

Thint is the people that have the arms in iran are the ones who are kookie and not afraid to use them. Reason why there was a revolution in the first place was cause the shah had mistaken intelligence and generally his folks were big chickens. He needed to unleash serious violence.

I dont see a positive outcome here. I've said all along the best chance was through the free market and exchange of ideas. The iran hawks have destroyed that possibility.

You give people an ounce of freedom and they demand more. The sanctions approach won't work.

 

[T.M.P.]

Nostrodamus Don:

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*Nostradumbass