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Cinci Game

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JerryPalm.com has us as a 30 point dog at Cincy. He also has Purdue ranked 3rd in the nation behind Bama and OSU.

By the way, Palm graduated from Purdoo. He is the poster child for typical Purdue male. Absolute nerd.
And his technology is out of date.
 
The game last year wasn’t decided on MM’s targeting call, it was because we turned it over four times and gave up a special teams touchdown. Statistically, it’s almost impossible to win if you play that way against anyone, let alone a good team like UC was a year ago. There’s no reason we can’t beat them this year, but we need a clean game to make that happen.
 
Sagarun’s projections are out, Indiana + points rated #9

… EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG
9 Indiana …… 20.56 …... 728 ….. 88% … @ Cincinnati

FAVORITE …….….. Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL
CINCINNATI (27) 12.28 .. 9.72 ….. 10.00 .. 16.16 … indiana (69) .. 348 .. 78% .. 56.11

……………….….. RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
27 Cincinnati A = 80.04 2 1 63.34( 85) 0 0 | 0 0 | 79.83 24 | 79.34 27 | 80.99 25
69 Indiana … A = 69.87 3 0 63.91( 80) 0 0 | 0 0 | 72.22 62 | 71.46 61 | 66.76 79
 
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Cincinnati got raked for not stomping, ‘Cradle of Coaches’, Miami, O, at Paul Brown Stadium, for a Miami home game. It’s a rivalry game with a trophy, and the ratings disparity can be discounted somewhat. I thought the attendance should have been bigger than ~50% capacity.

The Arkansas game showed Cincy was competent. Cincy‘s O had a respectable showing running and passing v. ’razorbacks’. The OL didn’t wilt. Their new LB dual looked good enough.

All IU‘s games say, IU is flawed. IU needs to start loose, with nothing to lose. We don’t have our defensive mojo yet.
 
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The game last year wasn’t decided on MM’s targeting call, it was because we turned it over four times and gave up a special teams touchdown. Statistically, it’s almost impossible to win if you play that way against anyone, let alone a good team like UC was a year ago. There’s no reason we can’t beat them this year, but we need a clean game to make that happen.

McFaden’s targeting call negated what would have been Cincy’s 4th 3 and out of the 1st half and given IU the ball up 14-0 with good field position with a little over 4 minutes left in the half. No, IU didn’t lose the game right there on that call but 100% flipped the entire script.
 
That's debatable. Last year's defense was poor.
Depends on which game in the season. I think it could be argued that early results last year, overall, were better than this year. There just weren’t enough warm bodies by season’s end. This lesson was learned … lot’s of defenders are playing this year.

Deterioration was evident to me v. Michigan St, when our 2nd string DBs couldn’t get IU out of the holes that the offense served up.
 
The game last year wasn’t decided on MM’s targeting call, it was because we turned it over four times and gave up a special teams touchdown. Statistically, it’s almost impossible to win if you play that way against anyone, let alone a good team like UC was a year ago. There’s no reason we can’t beat them this year, but we need a clean game to make that happen.

Then your viewpoint is contrary to most others.
IMO, that game TOTALLY swung towards UC after that targeting call. It totally changed the complexion of the game.
I have little doubt that we win that game if that call would have not happened.
 
Cincinnati got raked for not stomping, ‘Cradle of Coaches’, Miami, O, at Paul Brown Stadium, for a Miami home game. It’s a rivalry game with a trophy, and the ratings disparity can be discounted somewhat. I thought the attendance should have been bigger than ~50% capacity.

The Arkansas game showed Cincy was competent. Cincy‘s O had a respectable showing running and passing v. ’razorbacks’. The OL didn’t wilt. Their new LB dual looked good enough.

All IU‘s games say, IU is flawed. IU needs to start loose, with nothing to lose. We don’t have our defensive mojo yet.
For the UC-Miami game, tickets were not sold for the upper deck. UC sold its entire allotment, while it appears Miami did not.

I’m a graduate of both schools and wanted to attend, but didn’t feel like spending $70 on a ticket and dealing with Oktoberfest crowds. I suspect others felt the same. UC has now won 16 in a row, so there’s little suspense anymore.
 
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McFaden’s targeting call negated what would have been Cincy’s 4th 3 and out of the 1st half and given IU the ball up 14-0 with good field position with a little over 4 minutes left in the half. No, IU didn’t lose the game right there on that call but 100% flipped the entire script.
But that play and the resulting call didn’t r
cause any of the three INTs, the lost fumble, or the KO return for a TD. That’s where the game was lost.
 
Then your viewpoint is contrary to most others.
IMO, that game TOTALLY swung towards UC after that targeting call. It totally changed the complexion of the game.
I have little doubt that we win that game if that call would have not happened.
We had many opportunities to win that game before and after that call. If we play clean, we win. We turned It over way too much and then gave up a lead on a kick return. That’s where the game was won and lost, not one call. We beat ourselves. Coach Allen said as much after the game.
 
Then your viewpoint is contrary to most others.
IMO, that game TOTALLY swung towards UC after that targeting call. It totally changed the complexion of the game.
I have little doubt that we win that game if that call would have not happened.
Al, I totally agree with you. I’ve been attending IU games since Joe Norman was a senior & have never seen a stadium “deflate” as much after a call. The troops just lost their General Patton & everyone knew it. Incredible emotional swing.
 
Al, I totally agree with you. I’ve been attending IU games since Joe Norman was a senior & have never seen a stadium “deflate” as much after a call. The troops just lost their General Patton & everyone knew it. Incredible emotional swing.
I'll say one thing about that game...It felt like a turkey fryer inside the stadium. We witnessed some people having serious problems with heat and there was a lack of water to help out. It was terrible. Saw one older guy go down right in front of us and needed some help.
 
But that play and the resulting call didn’t r
cause any of the three INTs, the lost fumble, or the KO return for a TD. That’s where the game was lost.
It didn't...but as we've seen throughout Allen's tenure, his teams live and die off their emotion and energy.

At the time of McFadden's penalty (shouldn't even have been a penalty!, let alone targeting)... we were up 14-0, crowd, team, everything was like a lightning rod. That play should have resulted in 4th and long, and caused a punt, which likely would have set IU up with good field position. Our offense was rolling at that point, again...electric energy...we likely would have put some points on the board...so 17 or 21 to 0...with crazy energy.

Instead...horrible call is made...that same possession, UC's running back immediately starts to gash our defense, Ridder "all of a sudden" has time to make throws, they run it down our throat and score a touchdown. Pretty much all the energy is gone, stadium is quiet, everyone "knows" what's coming at that point.

The rest of the game their running back gashes us, and their QB has time to throw.

Obviously UC was going to get some things figured out in that game at some point, but the difference between figuring it out at some point in the 2nd or 3rd quarter, and being down by 20 ish points, is VERY, VERY different from immediately figuring it out in the first quarter, scoring a TD, and only being down 7.

It took the energy out of the game on our end, gave it to them, and put tons of pressure on Penix and our offense, that was not there before the penalty.

I don't like that Allen's teams are so fragile with their emotion and energy, but they are. And that call broke us, without question.
 
It didn't...but as we've seen throughout Allen's tenure, his teams live and die off their emotion and energy.

At the time of McFadden's penalty (shouldn't even have been a penalty!, let alone targeting)... we were up 14-0, crowd, team, everything was like a lightning rod. That play should have resulted in 4th and long, and caused a punt, which likely would have set IU up with good field position. Our offense was rolling at that point, again...electric energy...we likely would have put some points on the board...so 17 or 21 to 0...with crazy energy.

Instead...horrible call is made...that same possession, UC's running back immediately starts to gash our defense, Ridder "all of a sudden" has time to make throws, they run it down our throat and score a touchdown. Pretty much all the energy is gone, stadium is quiet, everyone "knows" what's coming at that point.

The rest of the game their running back gashes us, and their QB has time to throw.

Obviously UC was going to get some things figured out in that game at some point, but the difference between figuring it out at some point in the 2nd or 3rd quarter, and being down by 20 ish points, is VERY, VERY different from immediately figuring it out in the first quarter, scoring a TD, and only being down 7.

It took the energy out of the game on our end, gave it to them, and put tons of pressure on Penix and our offense, that was not there before the penalty.

I don't like that Allen's teams are so fragile with their emotion and energy, but they are. And that call broke us, without question.
He knows all this. You're arguing with a Purdue troll.
 
It didn't...but as we've seen throughout Allen's tenure, his teams live and die off their emotion and energy.

At the time of McFadden's penalty (shouldn't even have been a penalty!, let alone targeting)... we were up 14-0, crowd, team, everything was like a lightning rod. That play should have resulted in 4th and long, and caused a punt, which likely would have set IU up with good field position. Our offense was rolling at that point, again...electric energy...we likely would have put some points on the board...so 17 or 21 to 0...with crazy energy.

Instead...horrible call is made...that same possession, UC's running back immediately starts to gash our defense, Ridder "all of a sudden" has time to make throws, they run it down our throat and score a touchdown. Pretty much all the energy is gone, stadium is quiet, everyone "knows" what's coming at that point.

The rest of the game their running back gashes us, and their QB has time to throw.

Obviously UC was going to get some things figured out in that game at some point, but the difference between figuring it out at some point in the 2nd or 3rd quarter, and being down by 20 ish points, is VERY, VERY different from immediately figuring it out in the first quarter, scoring a TD, and only being down 7.

It took the energy out of the game on our end, gave it to them, and put tons of pressure on Penix and our offense, that was not there before the penalty.

I don't like that Allen's teams are so fragile with their emotion and energy, but they are. And that call broke us, without question.
Yet, with all of that, we still took the lead, only to surrender a kick off return for a touchdown. Then, we were down deep with another chance to take the lead and we fumble inside the 5. Those kinds of mistakes are killers against bad teams, and UC was far from a bad team. I get how the MM impacted fans, but it’s a different game on the field. I’ve just never been a fan of blaming the refs for losses, even when the call is close like that one was (it probably was targeting based on the way the rules are stupidly written and enforced). The PU people were here whining about their refs after they gave one away at SU, and it was garbage excuse making from them. Just not a fan of that approach.

Go Hoosiers. If we play clean this weekend we can definitely win.
 
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I don't like that Allen's teams are so fragile with their emotion and energy, but they are. And that call broke us, without question.
I don’t think you can generalize like this. We don’t appear to be fragile this year (so far) in coming back from double digit deficits. We could’ve thrown in the towel in this last game but didn’t concede even though the situation looked bleak. So, saying an Allen team is mentally fragile, not sure that is accurate.
 
I don’t think you can generalize like this. We don’t appear to be fragile this year (so far) in coming back from double digit deficits. We could’ve thrown in the towel in this last game but didn’t concede even though the situation looked bleak. So, saying an Allen team is mentally fragile, not sure that is accurate.
This is a good point, and it’s why I think we have a good shot this weekend. We’ve shown resiliency and that, plus a clean game, would give us a great chance to win.

Go Hoosiers.
 
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Why? They lost Ridder but they're still plenty good and plenty dangerous. Their current FPI is #23 nationally and they're #27 in the Sagarin ratings. They lost to #9 Arkansas in Fayetteville by just a touchdown.

This will be our toughest opponent to date and IU will have to play much better than what we've seen to have a shot at the upset. Both our O and D have had their moments, but there's been a lack of consistency and we're clearly not clicking on all cylinders.
I agree. If we play game four similar to games 1-3, we may be blown out.
We cannot win with a 2 minute drive if we are down 20.
 
I don’t think you can generalize like this. We don’t appear to be fragile this year (so far) in coming back from double digit deficits. We could’ve thrown in the towel in this last game but didn’t concede even though the situation looked bleak. So, saying an Allen team is mentally fragile, not sure that is accurate.
To me...being susceptible to huge swings in momentum, energy, overall play, is a sign of being mentally weak, or fragile. And it goes both ways.

Allen's teams aren't fundamentally sound in most areas. Dropped passes, inopportune penalties, missed tackles, poor coaching decisions, these are all things that hold his teams back. His teams have overcome those things with creating turnovers, riding emotion in games to get key scoring drives, they've been good at making big plays in close games, etc... I suppose one could say making those plays in the face of failure and adversity is a sign of mental strength...its just hard for me to give him/them that credit when they make so many mental mistakes to put/keep them in those situations to start with. To me its just uneven...which means fragile to me.
 
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To me...being susceptible to huge swings in momentum, energy, overall play, is a sign of being mentally weak, or fragile. And it goes both ways.

Allen's teams aren't fundamentally sound in most areas. Dropped passes, inopportune penalties, missed tackles, poor coaching decisions, these are all things that hold his teams back. His teams have overcome those things with creating turnovers, riding emotion in games to get key scoring drives, they've been good at making big plays in close games, etc... I suppose one could say making those plays in the face of failure and adversity is a sign of mental strength...its just hard for me to give him/them that credit when they make so many mental mistakes to put/keep them in those situations to start with. To me its just uneven...which means fragile to me.
I agree on the missed tackles, although, in my view, a function of lower level talent. Our current year penalties have been nominal, and far less than our opponents. I don't recall prior years. I don't recall a significant amount of dropped passes, Again, a function of talent. Coaching decisions? Not many that I remember that would hold his teams back.
 
16.5 on FanDuel now. People are hammering Cincy evidently. Still I'm not touching with a ten foot pool. I see IU getting drilled. Other than the never quit attitude, I haven't seen a whole lot of positives so far this year. Or least anything that would lead me to believe they won't get absolutely drilled by Cincy. I admit I am not really familiar with the Bearcats team this year though.
The biggest positive of the UC season was losing a game at Arkansas by 7. Same Arkansas team that damn near lost to Missouri State. I feel this will be an even game.
 
It didn't...but as we've seen throughout Allen's tenure, his teams live and die off their emotion and energy.

At the time of McFadden's penalty (shouldn't even have been a penalty!, let alone targeting)... we were up 14-0, crowd, team, everything was like a lightning rod. That play should have resulted in 4th and long, and caused a punt, which likely would have set IU up with good field position. Our offense was rolling at that point, again...electric energy...we likely would have put some points on the board...so 17 or 21 to 0...with crazy energy.

Instead...horrible call is made...that same possession, UC's running back immediately starts to gash our defense, Ridder "all of a sudden" has time to make throws, they run it down our throat and score a touchdown. Pretty much all the energy is gone, stadium is quiet, everyone "knows" what's coming at that point.

The rest of the game their running back gashes us, and their QB has time to throw.

Obviously UC was going to get some things figured out in that game at some point, but the difference between figuring it out at some point in the 2nd or 3rd quarter, and being down by 20 ish points, is VERY, VERY different from immediately figuring it out in the first quarter, scoring a TD, and only being down 7.

It took the energy out of the game on our end, gave it to them, and put tons of pressure on Penix and our offense, that was not there before the penalty.

I don't like that Allen's teams are so fragile with their emotion and energy, but they are. And that call broke us, without question.
Yep. Dying after a bad call like that shows lack of mental toughness.
 
I think our defense will surprise us... it is the offense that I'm concerned about with it being a hostile road game.

- Taking care of the football.
- Converting TDs in the redzone, or "score zone" as Coach Bell calls it.
- Limiting penalties, especially false starts due to crowd noise.
- Producing an adequate run game to keep the defense honest.
- Catching the football.
- RBs pass pro to help on blitzing downs.

This will be a tremendous test for the team. We will likely need a few big performances to get over the hump. It would also be a great time to see a few wrinkles in the offense that haven't been shown much before like wildcat, tight end pass plays, double reverse with DJ Matthews, pump fake and go deep passes, etc. After the first 3 games, the trick plays have not worked once, unfortunately. Keep going to the DJ Matthews quick slants & Josh Henderson counter runs, and no more 4th and short midfield run plays up the middle 😂

Go Hoosiers!
 
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To me...being susceptible to huge swings in momentum, energy, overall play, is a sign of being mentally weak, or fragile. And it goes both ways.

Allen's teams aren't fundamentally sound in most areas. Dropped passes, inopportune penalties, missed tackles, poor coaching decisions, these are all things that hold his teams back. His teams have overcome those things with creating turnovers, riding emotion in games to get key scoring drives, they've been good at making big plays in close games, etc... I suppose one could say making those plays in the face of failure and adversity is a sign of mental strength...its just hard for me to give him/them that credit when they make so many mental mistakes to put/keep them in those situations to start with. To me its just uneven...which means fragile to me.
This is an unduly harsh - - and not fully accurate - - assessment.

We've had our share of drops but that haunts every team including well-coached ones. I saw some in both NFL games last night.

Numerous missed tackles are troublesome and, as CTA is running the defense, I concur that that's on him.

With respect to penalties, we are among the least penalized teams in college football so far this season.

Finally, I'm seeing very few calls that could fairly be deemed "poor coaching decisions." The failed attempt to convert on 4th and 2 in the first quarter against WKU qualifies but, at least from my perspective, he's doing a good job managing the game and the clock, with dramatic improvement from just a few years ago. The record this year speaks to that.
 
I'll say one thing about that game...It felt like a turkey fryer inside the stadium. We witnessed some people having serious problems with heat and there was a lack of water to help out. It was terrible. Saw one older guy go down right in front of us and needed some help.
Unlike IU, UC serves water inside its stadium
 
I don’t think you can generalize like this. We don’t appear to be fragile this year (so far) in coming back from double digit deficits. We could’ve thrown in the towel in this last game but didn’t concede even though the situation looked bleak. So, saying an Allen team is mentally fragile, not sure that is accurate.
It seems to be much less the case this year as you point out, they did not fold under adversity in either game.
 
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