Archie going with 11 scholarship players

[IndyResident16]

The issue is even if their production is replicated, we're still not that good of a team. Making the tourney as a double digit seed isn't a good season. I wouldn't call it doomsday, but it's a crappy season for Indiana standards.

Now you're moving the goal posts. Nowhere did I ever say that Indiana was going to be automatically better next year than last year. Simply refuting the idea that Indiana's scoring output was going to dramatically decrease next year because they lost Romeo and Morgan.

But now since the goal posts have changed, I do think Indiana is a better team next year than last year. Largely in part due to better depth and also because of development and experience.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

I think were a bubble team and will win between 17-20 games. Why would I take that bet? I offered him a bet. You're welcome to take it, as well.

What was it?

 

[ndhuntington]

We will win maybe 15 games we lost so much in scoring still don't have enough shooters are inside depth is bad and we're one injury away from really hurting.

 

[IndyResident16]

We will win maybe 15 games we lost so much in scoring still don't have enough shooters are inside depth is bad and we're one injury away from really hurting.

@snarlcakes ^^^^ My point exactly.

 

[snarlcakes]

What was it?

You win the bet if Indiana finishs in the top 3 in the Big Ten or they are a 6 seed or better in the tourney.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

We will win maybe 15 games we lost so much in scoring still don't have enough shooters are inside depth is bad and we're one injury away from really hurting.

So another candidate for Aloha's bet, who hasn't stepped up. Since you are predicting 15 or less wins, I assume you are thinking no NCAA tournament. Care to really show how sure you are by taking Aloha's bet?

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

You win the bet if Indiana finishs in the top 3 in the Big Ten or they are a 6 seed or better in the tourney.

I'm not that confident, but i do think they make the tournament, and it won't come down to the BTT to decide.

 

[snarlcakes]

@snarlcakes ^^^^ My point exactly.

And? It's not an unrealistic prediction. It's also not unrealistic to think we will be a better team. Both outcomes are plausible. That was my point on your very first post in this thread I responded to.

I went back and read a thread (the thread was prior to the season) for predictions for this past season. Someone on here predicted IU would win 20 regular season games. The poster was insulted, ridiculed, and trolled for his prediction for being too pessimistic. He was actually too optimistic. I don't/didn't take issues with you predicting an increase in scoring or that we will be a better team. I take issue with your inability to recognize we could also be worse.

 

[IndyResident16]

And? It's not an unrealistic prediction. It's also not unrealistic to think we will be a better team. Both outcomes are plausible. That was my point on your very first post in this thread I responded to.

I went back and read a thread (the thread was prior to the season) for predictions for this past season. Someone on here predicted IU would win 20 regular season games. The poster was insulted, ridiculed, and trolled for his prediction for being too pessimistic. He was actually too optimistic. I don't/didn't take issues with you predicting an increase in scoring or that we will be a better team. I take issue with your inability to recognize we could also be worse.

My comment was in response to FPeaugh who is the most dense poster on here who said you don't replace productivity with role players as if it's impossible for role players to get better or improve. Morgan was a role player his first two years in Bloomington and became the teams best player the last two years with an increased role and further development. Yogi Ferrell was a role player his freshman year and became one of the best point guards in program history with an increased role and development. Victor Oladipo struggled dribbling the ball as a freshman and became an all-american and the second overall pick and face of an NBA franchise with an increased role and development. I could do this for 1,000+ players spanning hundreds of different college basketball programs where role players got better with development and an increased role.

 

[IndyResident16]

And? It's not an unrealistic prediction. It's also not unrealistic to think we will be a better team. Both outcomes are plausible. That was my point on your very first post in this thread I responded to.

I went back and read a thread (the thread was prior to the season) for predictions for this past season. Someone on here predicted IU would win 20 regular season games. The poster was insulted, ridiculed, and trolled for his prediction for being too pessimistic. He was actually too optimistic. I don't/didn't take issues with you predicting an increase in scoring or that we will be a better team. I take issue with your inability to recognize we could also be worse.

Again, at the time of my first response I never actually made a prediction about how Indiana's season was going to turn out in terms of success/failure. Simply said it was flat wrong and embarrassingly stupid to suggest role players from the year before can't get better or improve and that point still stands.

 

[hondo314]

And? It's not an unrealistic prediction. It's also not unrealistic to think we will be a better team. Both outcomes are plausible. That was my point on your very first post in this thread I responded to.

I went back and read a thread (the thread was prior to the season) for predictions for this past season. Someone on here predicted IU would win 20 regular season games. The poster was insulted, ridiculed, and trolled for his prediction for being too pessimistic. He was actually too optimistic. I don't/didn't take issues with you predicting an increase in scoring or that we will be a better team. I take issue with your inability to recognize we could also be worse.

Irrational Archie hate has turned so many of you into archivists...weird

 

[ufo33]

It's only crazy or unreasonable if you don't understand how depth and development create a more balanced scoring attack. Unless you think there's ZERO way Indiana's 8 returning players don't somehow improve nor does IU get any production from the three newcomers does it become unreasonable.

Last year's Indiana back court:
Starters
Phinisee 6.8 ppg
Langford 16.5 ppg
Durham 8.3 ppg

off bench
Green 9.4 ppg
Anderson 1.5 ppg

Indiana's front court last year:
Smith 8.2 ppg
Morgan 15.5 ppg

off bench (and this is what killed Indiana last year)
Davis 5.4 ppg
Fitzner 3.5 ppg
Moore 1.3 ppg
Forrester 2.1 ppg

It took 4 players to average 12 ppg off the bench last year in the front court. Here is a reasonable take on where to expect scoring to come from this year given players development and new roles.

Back court starters
Phinisee 9.5 ppg
Green 13.5 ppg
Durham 10 ppg

Off bench
Franklin 4.5 ppg
Anderson 3 ppg

Front court starters
TJD 11 ppg
Davis 8.5 ppg

off bench
Justin Smith 7.5 ppg
Joey Brunk 7 ppg
Race Thompson 4 ppg

And notice I didn't include Jerome Hunter who may or may not play. If he comes back healthy it makes IU even that more dynamic.

With those numbers, last years scoring numbers are not only duplicated but actually slightly increased with just incremental development despite losing your two best players. Now notice I didn't say this makes IU a better team, just simply showing how losing Juwan and Romeo doesn't signal the sky is falling and the world's end is near.

If Hunter plays and Race is healthy their contributions will be higher.

 

[ufo33]

The issue is even if their production is replicated, we're still not that good of a team. Making the tourney as a double digit seed isn't a good season. I wouldn't call it doomsday, but it's a crappy season for Indiana standards.

Baby steps after the post-Crean depleted returning roster.

 

[ufo33]

And that's my point. You have people who already have one foot off the ledge simply because Romeo and Langford are gone. Even if the scoring output only slightly decreases that's a worst case scenario. It's not anywhere near the doomsday scenario people are predicting simply because Romeo and Morgan are gone. Their production SHOULD be replicated if not exceeded simply due to development and more importantly depth that didn't exist last year.

Front Court depth should be greatly improved!
6'11" DeRon healthy enough to play, 6'9" Race healthy enough to play, Added 6'11" Joey Brunk who will play immediately as a Junior, added a McD AA TJD at 6'10" who could immediately start.
Essentially lost a sometimes injured Morgan, and 3 guys that did not play much: Fitzner, Moore, Forrester, and forced to play a perimeter challenged Smith out of position at the 4. Added McD AA TJD, Junior Joey Brunk, a healthy Race Thompson , healthy DeRon, and Smith back to a backup 3 if Hunter is healthy. the IU Front court should see a major improvement in depth and overall improvement as a group.

 

[IndyResident16]

Front Court depth could be greatly improved.
6'11" DeRon healthy enough to play, 6'9" Race healthy enough to play, Added 6'11" Joey Brunk who will play immediately as a Junior, added a McD AA TJD at 6'10".
Essentially lost sometimes injured Morgan, and 3 guys that did not plsy much Fitzner, Moore, Forrester and Smith out of position at the 4. Added McD AA TJD, Junior transfer Brunk, healthy Race, healthy DeRon, and Smith back to a backup 3 if Hunter is healthy. Front court should see major improvent in depth and overall improvement as a group.

I thought that was pretty easy for people to understand but apparently not. Archie Derangement Syndrome has really made it hard some people to see things bi-partisan.

 

[ufo33]

Again, at the time of my first response I never actually made a prediction about how Indiana's season was going to turn out in terms of success/failure. Simply said it was flat wrong and embarrassingly stupid to suggest role players from the year before can't get better or improve and that point still stands.

Front Court depth is the biggest potential improvement that I see.

 

[bailey777]

Front Court depth should be greatly improved!
6'11" DeRon healthy enough to play, 6'9" Race healthy enough to play, Added 6'11" Joey Brunk who will play immediately as a Junior, added a McD AA TJD at 6'10" who could immediately start.
Essentially lost a sometimes injured Morgan, and 3 guys that did not play much: Fitzner, Moore, Forrester, and forced to play a perimeter challenged Smith out of position at the 4. Added McD AA TJD, Junior Joey Brunk, a healthy Race Thompson , healthy DeRon, and Smith back to a backup 3 if Hunter is healthy. the IU Front court should see a major improvement in depth and overall improvement as a group.

So are we making the NCAA or what? I think that should be a minimum expectation even though I do not think we will be that good. Archie needs to really coach the season of his life.

 

[snarlcakes]

Baby steps after the post-Crean depleted returning roster.

The roster wasn't depleted.

 

[snarlcakes]

My comment was in response to FPeaugh who is the most dense poster on here who said you don't replace productivity with role players as if it's impossible for role players to get better or improve. Morgan was a role player his first two years in Bloomington and became the teams best player the last two years with an increased role and further development. Yogi Ferrell was a role player his freshman year and became one of the best point guards in program history with an increased role and development. Victor Oladipo struggled dribbling the ball as a freshman and became an all-american and the second overall pick and face of an NBA franchise with an increased role and development. I could do this for 1,000+ players spanning hundreds of different college basketball programs where role players got better with development and an increased role.

Quote fpeaugh next time then. Some players do improve and some players don't. I could also list 1000+ of players who don't develop or continue to be role players. For example Justin Smith and Devonte Green, last season.

Yogi didn't have that big of a freshmen season because he was surrounded by really good players. Victor Oladipo had a good freshmen season and you're talking out your a#$ claiming he couldn't dribble. If Crean wasn't an idiot he would have played him 30+ minutes a game.

 

[snarlcakes]

Again, at the time of my first response I never actually made a prediction about how Indiana's season was going to turn out in terms of success/failure. Simply said it was flat wrong and embarrassingly stupid to suggest role players from the year before can't get better or improve and that point still stands.

I know. I was using it as an example of predictions that you would have found "semi-crazy". So you agree that it's not "semi-crazy" for someone to think IU won't increase it's scoring production, next year?

 

[ufo33]

The roster wasn't depleted.

Yes it was.
No perimeter shooters.
Newkirk at PG? NAIA pg are better.
Crean left the cupboard bare with underperforming returning players and Morgan.

 

[snarlcakes]

Yes it was.
No perimeter shooters.
Newkirk at PG? NAIA pg are better.
Crean left the cupboard bare with underperforming returning players and Morgan.

Newkirk was a 5th year senior and 4 star recruit. NAIA pgs are now better than him? He had a better RS Junior season than Green did this prior season (you could nit pick this) , by the way. Robert Johnson was a top 50ish recruit and was a good player for IU. There won't be a guard next year have a better season than he did his senior year. Not to mention Morgan who was an all conference player. It wasn't a great roster, but the cupboard wasn't bare.

 

[IndyResident16]

I know. I was using it as an example of predictions that you would have found "semi-crazy". So you agree that it's not "semi-crazy" for someone to think IU won't increase it's scoring production, next year?

It’s more than semi-crazy to make a statement suggesting that role players cannot or will not improve or get better. That’s why I said it in the first place.

 

[IndyResident16]

Newkirk was a 5th year senior and 4 star recruit. NAIA pgs are now better than him? He had a better RS Junior season than Green did this prior season (you could nit pick this) , by the way. Robert Johnson was a top 50ish recruit and was a good player for IU. There won't be a guard next year have a better season than he did his senior year. Not to mention Morgan who was an all conference player. It wasn't a great roster, but the cupboard wasn't bare.

Wait Morgan an all-conference player? I was told by a certain poster that role players aren’t expected to make up lost productivity. So you’re telling me that guys like Green, Phinisee, Durham, Davis, etc who were role players just may break out and contribute more by playing more minutes in a larger role? Be careful how you answer this without outing yourself.

 

[ufo33]

Newkirk was a 5th year senior and 4 star recruit. NAIA pgs are now better than him? He had a better RS Junior season than Green did this prior season (you could nit pick this) , by the way. Robert Johnson was a top 50ish recruit and was a good player for IU. There won't be a guard next year have a better season than he did his senior year. Not to mention Morgan who was an all conference player. It wasn't a great roster, but the cupboard wasn't bare.

Newkirk was worse than anyone I can ever remember at PG at IU. Robert Johnson was not as good as the starter after JBJ had left, and RJ also suffered from poor decision making and TO. Green was a TO machine. That was a poor IU backcourt that tried to play too fast for their abilities and decision making skills. Robert Johnson was better as a Soph back-up than he was as a starter. Johnson seemed to play worse while in the spotlight. Underperforming roster of players conditioned to play low BB IQ ball while under Crean.

 

[OhioBoiler51]

So, are we going to make the tournament next season?

I think I'd lean towards a yes at this point but it's very close. I could see it being another year missing the tournament because IU did lose almost 40 ppg including its two all conference players on a team that split with Rutgers and northwestern. They didn't really add the shooting that was needed either but just because you may not be as good as last season doesn't mean you won't make the tournament. Last year before the collapse you guys were looking like a 4 seed or better. Next years team won't have the ceiling that last years team had but getting older, getting healthy, and a weaker conference overall should benefit you guys enough to be in the field of 68.

 

[IndyResident16]

I think I'd lean towards a yes at this point but it's very close. I could see it being another year missing the tournament because IU did lose almost 40 ppg including its two all conference players on a team that split with Rutgers and northwestern. They didn't really add the shooting that was needed either but just because you may not be as good as last season doesn't mean you won't make the tournament. Last year before the collapse you guys were looking like a 4 seed or better. Next years team won't have the ceiling that last years team had but getting older, getting healthy, and a weaker conference overall should benefit you guys enough to be in the field of 68.

Shooting becomes almost de-facto better next year with the loss of Romeo and Juwan. Those two took a combined 216 3 pointers and between them only made 60. That's 28%. IU however does return Green, Durham, and Phinisee and between those three attempted 319 three pointers and made 115 of them, good enough for 36% which is exponentially better, and in fact would be off the chart good. Even if none of those guys improve their shooting and shoot at the exact same clip, 36% would have been third best by percentage in the B10 last year. There's no reason to think Phinisee who shot 30% from 3 last year doesn't at least get to 35% which is more than realistic (remember Yogi shot 30% as a freshman and shot 40+% the next 3 years due to improvement). Durham went from a 28% 3 point shooter as a freshman to 35% as a sophomore and there's no reason to think he can't shoot ~38% this year. And Green is a career 38% 3 point shooter who made over 40% of his attempts on over 100 shots this last year.

 

[snarlcakes]

Wait Morgan an all-conference player? I was told by a certain poster that role players aren’t expected to make up lost productivity. So you’re telling me that guys like Green, Phinisee, Durham, Davis, etc who were role players just may break out and contribute more by playing more minutes in a larger role? Be careful how you answer this without outing yourself.

I see you figured out the quote function. Reading comprehension, not so much. I never claimed players couldn't get better.

You’d actually be semi-crazy not to think Indiana’s scoring output doesn’t increase from next year to last. You lose 16.5 ppg in Romeo but Green who averaged 9.4 ppg playing 25 mpg should see his scoring improve with more minutes. I expect Green to play somewhere between 32-34 mpg and expect him to average somewhere around 14-15 ppg in a much larger role. You’ve almost replaced Romeo’s scoring output with 1 player in Green, not to mention that Durham and Phinisee should also see their scoring totals increase by a few points per game. I know this concept seems crazy to some, but most players tend to get better with experience. Green may not have the individual talent to take over a game like Romeo and that’s where he’ll be missed the most, but to act like Indiana can’t make up his production is asinine.

I'll repost this to show you again there wasn't any reference to fpeaugh. You did out yourself as a disingenuous fanboy (or a troll considering you have been on here for 2 months). A mea culpa would have been fine.

 

[T.M.P.]

Newkirk was a 5th year senior and 4 star recruit.

He certainly wasn't a four star player, the game and his feet were too fast for his mind. Once they play minutes you can (and should) use their stats (or eye test) instead of their HS recruiting rankings. Either way Josh Newkirk sucked.

Example: Would you compare Vic Oladipo and Newkirk using HS rankings, or stats .. ie 29 PER vs 11 PER or 3 star vs 4 star. .. which is the more accurate measure of talent? A 29 PER is 4 points over average for an All American, while an 11 is the average for a walk on that gets five minutes or less. Josh Newkirk was the least productive starting PG in IU history.

 

[IndyResident16]

I see you figured out the quote function. Reading comprehension, not so much. I never claimed players couldn't get better.



I'll repost this to show you again there wasn't any reference to fpeaugh. You did out yourself as a disingenuous fanboy (or a troll considering you have been on here for 2 months). A mea culpa would have been fine.

My first response was directly to FPeaugh (which was quoted) and then followed up by a second post immediately after, piggy backing off his original comment calling him crazy.

And me a troll? Not having an irrational hatred towards any and all things Archie that doesn't allow me to be objective towards anything IU related doesn't make me a troll. It may make someone like yourself an idiot but that isn't what this is about.

 

[snarlcakes]

He certainly wasn't a four star player, the game and his feet were too fast for his mind. Once they play minutes you can (and should) use their stats (or eye test) instead of their HS recruiting rankings. Either way Josh Newkirk sucked.

Example: Would you compare Vic Oladipo and Newkirk using HS rankings, or stats .. ie 29 PER vs 11 PER or 3 star vs 4 star. .. which is the more accurate measure of talent? A 29 PER is 4 points over average for an All American, while an 11 is the average for a walk on that gets five minutes or less. Josh Newkirk was the least productive starting PG in IU history.

You're in good company. Fpeaugh used that same argument with Brunk. I never said Newkirk was good. He wasn't NAIA level either, which is what ufo claimed.

 

[T.M.P.]

You're in good company. Fpeaugh used that same argument with Brunk. I never said Newkirk was good. He wasn't NAIA level either, which is what ufo claimed.

No he didn't ..Fpeaugh is a pudding eating dotard that has no clue what a PER is or how it's used.

 

[snarlcakes]

My first response was directly to FPeaugh (which was quoted) and then followed up by a second post immediately after, piggy backing off his original comment calling him crazy.

And me a troll? Not having an irrational hatred towards any and all things Archie that doesn't allow me to be objective towards anything IU related doesn't make me a troll. It may make someone like yourself an idiot but that isn't what this is about.

Nothing is irrational besides your bullsh#t statements and lies. Oh yeah, Devonte Green isn't going to average 15 points a game. I would say we could revisit these statements after the season, but I am sure you will have a new user name by them. I'll refer back to my original post to you. You're captain of the fanboy club.

 

[fpeaugh]

So, are we going to make the tournament next season?

I don’t know. No one does.

 

[snarlcakes]

No he didn't ..Fpeaugh is a pudding eating dotard that has no clue what a PER is or how it's used.

To be fair. I agree with both of you guys. Also, if Newkirk sucks, what are your thoughts on Green?

 

[IndyResident16]

Nothing is irrational besides your bullsh#t statements and lies. Oh yeah, Devonte Green isn't going to average 15 points a game. I would say we could revisit these statements after the season, but I am sure you will have a new user name by them. I'll refer back to my original post to you. You're captain of the fanboy club.

I just showed you where I thought he'd average somewhere between 13-15 ppg (that's an opinion by the way). He averaged 9.4 ppg last year coming off the bench playing 25 mpg. You think it's unrealistic he could average 13-15 ppg playing closer to 33-35 mpg taking over the role as lead guard? That's unrealistic? Please

Here are facts:

Over the last month of the season Green averaged 30 mpg and averaged 15.3 ppg. As his minutes increased as well as his role so did his production. With Romeo no longer on the team, that lead guard role now goes to him. Please tell me how it's unrealistic for a guy who is expected to play 8-10 minutes more per game with a much larger role isn't capable of increasing his ppg average by 4 or 5 points? How in the literal F*** is that unrealistic or make me a fan boy? Your basketball knowledge is already extremely low to begin with, I'm now starting to question your actual IQ.

 

[IndyResident16]

I don’t know. No one does.

You don’t just replace that productivity with role players. It’s going to be very tough for us to score next year.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

I don’t know. No one does.

And yet, you have no problems making other definitive statements about future events. It’s just that this one has been offered up by Aloha as a put up or shut up bet that you are too big of a coward to accept. It’s obvious from all your posting that you believe next season will be a “dumpster fire” (your words), but when given a shot to back it up, you ran away like the little puss you are. It was hard to watch, kid.

 

[snarlcakes]

Newkirk was worse than anyone I can ever remember at PG at IU. Robert Johnson was not as good as the starter after JBJ had left, and RJ also suffered from poor decision making and TO. Green was a TO machine. That was a poor IU backcourt that tried to play too fast for their abilities and decision making skills. Robert Johnson was better as a Soph back-up than he was as a starter. Johnson seemed to play worse while in the spotlight. Underperforming roster of players conditioned to play low BB IQ ball while under Crean.

I don't think you're understanding what you're seeing when you watch games. Maybe you don't watch all the games? Feel free to click the link below. Its Robert Johnson's stats. You're going to see he improved a bunch in his junior and senior season from his sophomore season.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/robert-johnson-5.html

 

[IndyResident16]

To be fair. I agree with both of you guys. Also, if Newkirk sucks, what are your thoughts on Green?

Green is an immensely better shooter/scorer than Newkirk and it's not even close. Green was forced to play more minutes than he should have at point guard last year with Phinisee being as inexperienced as he was on top of him getting injured. Green returned from his suspension and played almost exclusively off the ball the last third of the season. 15 ppg over the last month of the year shooting 51% from 3 (23/45) with nearly a 2:1 A/TO ratio (27A/14 TOs).