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Another way to think about opposition to the Iran deal

People in Iran are expressing opposition to this deal. Others are expressing support.

Iran has a lot of problems, but it's not the monolithic radical power you imagine it is. Iranian politics are extremely complex.
Yes they're expressing opposition and that is condoned by their government and Supreme Leader. It means nothing. It's propaganda. We're the Great Satan. This perpetuates this notion. The leaders of Iran could hardly be more happy with this deal. However, as I said, we're stuck with a bad deal now. At this point we're probably slightly better off agreeing to it than rejecting it, but rejecting it isn't practically possible anyway.
 
When I was in college, I had access to introductory level textbooks on Islamic politics that explained a lot of this. And although a lot of them are severely outdated, I always assumed our policy experts had access to at least the same quality of information. Imagining I am wrong about that is quite depressing.

Reading textbooks is one thing. You need people who have contacts on the ground in these places... people who have insider access. We don't have it. Zilch. Our knowledge base has gaping holes in it.
 
Yes they're expressing opposition and that is condoned by their government and Supreme Leader. It means nothing. It's propaganda. We're the Great Satan. This perpetuates this notion. The leaders of Iran could hardly be more happy with this deal. However, as I said, we're stuck with a bad deal now. At this point we're probably slightly better off agreeing to it than rejecting it, but rejecting it isn't practically possible anyway.
Still makes no sense. Literally the only thing we are giving up is money that already belongs to them. And only about a third (?) of that money is even in the U.S., so they were going to have the rest of it available to them, anyway. Ultimately, what are we giving them, once their debts are subtracted, about $18 billion? $18 billion of their own money in exchange for no nukes? If they build nukes, anyway, you might have a complaint, but if you think they are just going to ignore the deal, then no deal is a good one. This sounds like partisan grandstanding on your part.

You're making me agree with toasted in this thread. Do you realize how rare that is? You must really be off the reservation to make that happen! :D
 
Yes they're expressing opposition and that is condoned by their government and Supreme Leader. It means nothing. It's propaganda. We're the Great Satan. This perpetuates this notion. The leaders of Iran could hardly be more happy with this deal. However, as I said, we're stuck with a bad deal now. At this point we're probably slightly better off agreeing to it than rejecting it, but rejecting it isn't practically possible anyway.

Fyi, most Iranians in Iran have a positive impression of the good ole' USA.
 
Still makes no sense. Literally the only thing we are giving up is money that already belongs to them. And only about a third (?) of that money is even in the U.S., so they were going to have the rest of it available to them, anyway. Ultimately, what are we giving them, once their debts are subtracted, about $18 billion? $18 billion of their own money in exchange for no nukes? If they build nukes, anyway, you might have a complaint, but if you think they are just going to ignore the deal, then no deal is a good one. This sounds like partisan grandstanding on your part.

You're making me agree with toasted in this thread. Do you realize how rare that is? You must really be off the reservation to make that happen! :D

What we are giving them is access to SWIFT. That was their #1 concern.
 
Fyi, most Iranians in Iran have a positive impression of the good ole' USA.
Iran has the human resources to be a force for modernity and change in the Middle East and South Asia if we can just get their government to progress properly. Of course, we could say that about Lebanon 30 years ago, and nothing came of that. Which was ironically partially Iran's fault.

Whole region's just a goddamn mess. I don't think I have a point to this post other than to shake my head.
 
Iran has the human resources to be a force for modernity and change in the Middle East and South Asia if we can just get their government to progress properly. Of course, we could say that about Lebanon 30 years ago, and nothing came of that. Which was ironically partially Iran's fault.

Whole region's just a goddamn mess. I don't think I have a point to this post other than to shake my head.

It's easy to play Monday morning quarterback, but...

Imo, Obama's biggest failure was the Arab Spring. We were incredibly passive and back heeled. Every single calculation went against us. These revolts were led by SECULAR protesters. They needed better organization, coordination, and possibly funding. Instead we are left with ISIS in Libya, Egypt is a mess, etc.

Another horrific miscalculation was not aligning with Assad years ago. It was obvious to some of us that the Syrian opposition rebels were not "moderates". In all of these Sunni rallies it's always the most extreme who come to dominate. That's beyond no ones surprise.

Frankly every calculation we have made has been a mistake.

On another note, I would be absolutely shocked if Iran doesn't already have nukes hidden underground. And in the case they don't, they will continue their work underground out of the reach of the toothless inspections. There is nothing we can do about this, but it's the reality.
 
There's no way our international experts are that myopic.
The reality is that our experts aren't so unrealistically idealistic as you seem to be. Iran's leadership isn't interested in peace, love and understanding. They're interested in dominating the Middle East region and controlling it with their radical Shia version of Islamic theocracy. They officially say they want to destroy Israel. They actively support terror groups that kill Sunni Muslims and Jews. The Iranian leadership isn't moderate under any reasonable understanding of the word "moderate."
 
Iran has the human resources to be a force for modernity and change in the Middle East and South Asia if we can just get their government to progress properly. Of course, we could say that about Lebanon 30 years ago, and nothing came of that. Which was ironically partially Iran's fault.

Whole region's just a goddamn mess. I don't think I have a point to this post other than to shake my head.
Hey! I agree with this one.
 
The reality is that our experts aren't so unrealistically idealistic as you seem to be. Iran's leadership isn't interested in peace, love and understanding. They're interested in dominating the Middle East region and controlling it with their radical Shia version of Islamic theocracy. They officially say they want to destroy Israel. They actively support terror groups that kill Sunni Muslims and Jews. The Iranian leadership isn't moderate under any reasonable understanding of the word "moderate."

And Saudi Arabia, Qatar are moderate?
 
The reality is that our experts aren't so unrealistically idealistic as you seem to be. Iran's leadership isn't interested in peace, love and understanding. They're interested in dominating the Middle East region and controlling it with their radical Shia version of Islamic theocracy. They officially say they want to destroy Israel. They actively support terror groups that kill Sunni Muslims and Jews. The Iranian leadership isn't moderate under any reasonable understanding of the word "moderate."

The Iranian regime is primarily interested in self-preservation. That's normally the game plan of most regimes. The end of world stuff is pure crap.
 
The reality is that our experts aren't so unrealistically idealistic as you seem to be. Iran's leadership isn't interested in peace, love and understanding. They're interested in dominating the Middle East region and controlling it with their radical Shia version of Islamic theocracy. They officially say they want to destroy Israel. They actively support terror groups that kill Sunni Muslims and Jews. The Iranian leadership isn't moderate under any reasonable understanding of the word "moderate."
Here's the problem. I say, "Iranian politics are complex." You hear, "Iranians want peace, love and understanding."

You see them as a caricature. I see them as human beings with human motivations. That's the difference.
 
The Iranian regime is primarily interested in self-preservation. That's normally the game plan of most regimes. The end of world stuff is pure crap.
If they are only interested in self preservation, why do they support terrorist groups focused on targeting and killing civilians in Israel, hundreds of miles from Iran?
 
If they are only interested in self preservation, why do they support terrorist groups focused on targeting and killing civilians in Israel, hundreds of miles from Iran?
Because, much as many Israelis think that keeping Iran down is good for their own security, many Iranian leaders probably feel like keeping Israel occupied with the Palestinians is good for Iranian security. You keep your enemy occupied close to home, and he can't come snooping around your place.
 
Because, much as many Israelis think that keeping Iran down is good for their own security, many Iranian leaders probably feel like keeping Israel occupied with the Palestinians is good for Iranian security. You keep your enemy occupied close to home, and he can't come snooping around your place.

It's also a domestic distraction. There are a lot of poor, uneducated, religious people in Iran.
 
Spoken like a man whose only understanding of the wider world is how it affects America. Absent the Shia/Sunni divide, you ask any person which regime they'd rather live under, I bet 9/10 say "Iran."

As I've said many times before I would much rather be partners with Iran in terms of a people standpoint. There are some really decent and lovely people there. Otoh, Sunni Gulf Arabs are barbarian nomads who happened to be standing on black gold.
 
In comparison, they certainly are.

That's laughable. I'm sorry, did you write that with a straight face?

The Saudis have spent decades funding and spreading wahhabism all over the world, basically creating radical nutjobs that believe suicide bombing is martyrism. Their nation is basically a very wealthy Taliban. That's moderate?
 
Saudi Arabia? No way. That's lunacy.
It all depends on what you consider moderate and what you consider radical. I've been in Saudi and Qatar, as well as Bahrain, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Afghnistan. From my perspective, they're all radical in one way or another. In this context radical is suupporting, as a government, terrorist groups that target and kill innocent civilians of other countries.
 
It all depends on what you consider moderate and what you consider radical. I've been in Saudi and Qatar, as well as Bahrain, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Afghnistan. From my perspective, they're all radical in one way or another. In this context radical is suupporting, as a government, terrorist groups that target and kill innocent civilians of other countries.

Haha.....you mean like this?

http://theweek.com/articles/570297/how-saudi-arabia-exports-radical-islam


Saudi Arabia has state sponsored more extreme Islamic terror than any country on earth, and it's not even close. They've now lost control of the monster they created, and the royals are terrified they'll not survive another generation
 
It all depends on what you consider moderate and what you consider radical. I've been in Saudi and Qatar, as well as Bahrain, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Afghnistan. From my perspective, they're all radical in one way or another. In this context radical is suupporting, as a government, terrorist groups that target and kill innocent civilians of other countries.
Saudi Arabia is radical in almost every which way. And almost all of modern Islamic terrorism traces its roots back to late 19th and early 20th century Wahhabism.
 
Fyi, most Iranians in Iran have a positive impression of the good ole' USA.

Hence why a few more years of sanctions would have permanently turned the tide in that country. The youth is desperate for Weesternization and hates the hardliners, particularly because of the economic disparity that continues to worsen.
 
That's laughable. I'm sorry, did you write that with a straight face?

The Saudis have spent decades funding and spreading wahhabism all over the world, basically creating radical nutjobs that believe suicide bombing is martyrism. Their nation is basically a very wealthy Taliban. That's moderate?
Of course it isn't. The Wahhabi movement is evil as far as I'm concerned. However, the Iranian government has officially funded terrorist groups broadly and have been directly and indirectly responsible for killing 100s of Americans and many thousands of Jews, Christians and Muslims in the Middle East.
 
Of course it isn't. The Wahhabi movement is evil as far as I'm concerned. However, the Iranian government has officially funded terrorist groups broadly and have been directly and indirectly responsible for killing 100s of Americans and many thousands of Jews, Christians and Muslims in the Middle East.

Who funded the Taliban, 9-11 hijackers? Who created ISIS? I say off with the King's head.
 
Of course it isn't. The Wahhabi movement is evil as far as I'm concerned. However, the Iranian government has officially funded terrorist groups broadly and have been directly and indirectly responsible for killing 100s of Americans and many thousands of Jews, Christians and Muslims in the Middle East.

Fyi, it's illegal for any non-muslim to visit Saudi as a tourist. ILLEGAL. This maybe the only country in the world with such a policy AFAIK.

And there are NO JEWS, CHRISTIANS, or others in Saudi. Iran has tremendous religious diversity and tolerance in comparison. In Sunni countries they killed all the Jews.
 
Hence why a few more years of sanctions would have permanently turned the tide in that country. The youth is desperate for Weesternization and hates the hardliners, particularly because of the economic disparity that continues to worsen.

That's not completely true though. The religious sickies have done a great job of brainwashing. There are plenty of youth who hate Westernization. But yes, a large plurality do appreciate increased rights.

The problem is that the rest of the world was ending sanctions so we couldn't possibly continue the sanctions. Obama, Clinton, and Kerry bungled this.

Also, contrary to popular belief the sanctions made the hardliners rich. And any popular resistance would be met with force.
 
Haha.....you mean like this?

http://theweek.com/articles/570297/how-saudi-arabia-exports-radical-islam


Saudi Arabia has state sponsored more extreme Islamic terror than any country on earth, and it's not even close. They've now lost control of the monster they created, and the royals are terrified they'll not survive another generation
I'm no fan of Saidi Arabia by any means. However the government is supporting us and ME countries against ISIS, a Sunn terrorist group.
 
As I've said many times before I would much rather be partners with Iran in terms of a people standpoint. There are some really decent and lovely people there. Otoh, Sunni Gulf Arabs are barbarian nomads who happened to be standing on black gold.
I actually agree with you as far as average Iranians and Saudis go. I much prefer dealing with an average Iranian. Governments are another matter.
 
Given the opposition has been repeating itself for over 20 years and they've never managed to fulfill those statements of doom.

buzz off, you're just whining

meanwhile Israel has stolen secrets, spied on us, attacked our troops and ships, lied to us, had espionage rings exposed in the USA...

who is it that's the enemy again?
 
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That's not completely true though. The religious sickies have done a great job of brainwashing. There are plenty of youth who hate Westernization. But yes, a large plurality do appreciate increased rights.

The problem is that the rest of the world was ending sanctions so we couldn't possibly continue the sanctions. Obama, Clinton, and Kerry bungled this.

Also, contrary to popular belief the sanctions made the hardliners rich. And any popular resistance would be met with force.

I don't disagree on the hardliners being rich. But, how rich could they have been given sanctions combined with plummeting oil and Iran's continuous decline in production?

At the end of the day, money buys a lot. It does not buy permanence and I believe the Iranian youth would have pushed out the hardliners. They were close to doing so already.
 
Saudi's are not our friends, they hold us in contempt and teach their children to hate us in their schools.

Israel is headed for a rude awakening, the world is tired of it's equivocating excuses for becoming their own style of nazi on the Palestinians all these years.

Knowing-web.jpg

http://jfjfp.com/?p=39918
 
nothing is wrong with me

I just think "human emotions" complex or otherwise is a silly way to think of the objectives of the Shia Theocracy.
That's insanely idiotic. If you want to predict what a foreign government is going to do, recognizing that it is made up of people is going to be a necessary first step.
 
Well, you got that wrong for starters.

It is the right that are the lock-step lemmings, see the tea party, you'll do it our damn way or we'll attack you... which is just the same as the religious right when they took over the party after Reagan.

...and that is why the GOP is such a mockery of what it used to be, which was all about individual choice.

dems can't even vote together when they have a majority to pass shit.
 
That's insanely idiotic. If you want to predict what a foreign government is going to do, recognizing that it is made up of people is going to be a necessary first step.
To justify irrational policies, it's helpful to imagine that the Iranians are insane -- despite all evidence to the contrary.
 
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