ADVERTISEMENT

Another way to think about opposition to the Iran deal

Rockfish1

Hall of Famer
Sep 2, 2001
36,255
6,841
113
As I've argued previously, no one is making rational arguments against the Iran deal based on our national interests. That's because from our perspective the deal is obviously better for us than the alternatives -- a nuclear-armed Iran or a war with Iran. But Josh Marshall explains why the alternatives might be better for Israel and Saudi Arabia:

The best argument against the nuclear deal is that it is better to keep Iran as a pariah state, with an abiding mutual hostility with the world's great power, the United States, and still enfeebled by US sanctions, even at the risk of Iran building a handful of nuclear weapons. For the way many Saudis see the world this isn't only the best argument, it's actually a decent argument. For the Israelis, it's considerably more complex. But there's some logic to it there as well. I certainly do not blame the Israelis for vastly preferring a world where Iran has zero nuclear weapons - let's not forget: THAT'S WHAT THIS DEAL DOES. But Israel's generals do not think Iran will launch an unprovoked first strike against Israel to bring on the end times. That's not Israel's real problem. Setting aside the abiding issue of the Palestinian conflict, Israel's real problem is that Iran subsidizes and arms proxy armies to Israel north and south. The situation with Hamas and Gaza is considerably more complex than that. But with Hezbollah it very much captures the situation. Hezbollah is a vastly more lethal force than anything Hamas has or can do in Gaza. In any case, it is obviously a complex reality. But the point is simple enough: a legitimized and wealthier Iran which does not change its behavior presents real challenges to all its neighbors.
From this perspective, a nuclear-armed Iran isn't the worst outcome (so disregard the Holocaust histrionics). Instead, the worst outcome is an Iran more empowered to be a bad actor in the region. We can handle that without too much trouble, but it's a much more substantial threat for Iran's neighbors.

But the most important thing about this perspective is that it elevates Israel's and Saudi Arabia's interests over our own. I understand why Israelis and the Saudis would put their interests first -- obviously they will, and they should -- but why would we put their interests first?

There are plenty of reasons why so many are responding so irrationally to the Iran deal, from partisan opposition to whatever Obama does to ingrained hatred of Iran to a childish misperception of American power. But way too many of us take our cues from Bibi Netanyahu, allowing the Israeli tail to wag the American dog. This is irrational, dangerous, and wrong.
 
This should absolutely be approved.

Those opposed are not very well informed or thinking clearly, they are being led.

I just think this is the right continuing on in their anal captivity regarding anything Obama does. After all, they had a stated policy to oppose him on everything regardless if it was detrimental to our country or not.

So screw the republican party, those who participated and condoned this behavior don't deserve anyone's vote. Just like those that put religion before their oath to defend and uphold our Constitution against all comers.
 
Last edited:
Some of us figured this out months ago

The $150b sanctions money, taking Iran off of the state sponsored terrorist list, lifting the arms embargo and similar give-a-ways, not to mention sanctions relief, are all features of this deal that destabilize the region and are bound to hurt our international interests. These matters were a huge part of the deal for the Shia mullahs as they attempt to match the Saudis for influence. In return for welcoming Iran/Shia mullahs as legitimate players in world affairs and commerce we got an illusion.
 
  • Like
Reactions: IU-Curmudgeon
uh, how is removing the current embargo/sanctions going to destabilize them again?
I don't understand your question

Increasing the Shia capability in the region will be destabilizing. "Peace through strength" is an unknown concept in that part of the world. The most important consideration is whether you are the "right" kind of Muslim, Jew or a Chistian.
 
This should absolutely be approved.

Those opposed are not very well informed or thinking clearly, they are being led.

I just think this is the right continuing on in their anal captivity regarding anything Obama does. After all, they had a stated policy to oppose him on everything regardless if it was detrimental to our country or not.

So screw the republican party, those who participated and condoned this behavior don't deserve anyone's vote. Just like those that put religion before their oath to defend and uphold our Constitution against all comers.
 
So screw the Republican Party. About as mature as Obama comparing those that oppose the deal to Iranian hardliners.

Stupid format.
 
Some of us believe the world would be a better place if no country had nuclear weapons. Just because MAD (mutually assured destruction) somehow prevailed during the Cold War and a nuclear exchange didn't take place, doesn't mean MAD will work forever. I just don't see how allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon capability makes sense to any country whether in the Middle East or elsewhere.

Allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon along with its guaranteed ability to have a long range missile at sometime in the future eventually puts Europe and the U.S. in danger. The premise that only Israel and the non-Shia dominated countries have to be concerned about Iran becoming a nuclear power player on the Middle East and world stage just doesn't make sense to me.

So in my view, eliminating Iran as a potential nuclear power for the next ten years or so is a good first step. The next step being to keep Iran's terrorist supported activities and other destabilizing Middle East actions at bay. I really question whether the sanction regime designed to get Iran to the negotiating table over its nuke program would have lasted with or without a nuclear agreement.

Let us face it, Russia and China are anxious to open trade with Iran. Thus our best option against Iran being a bad actor in the M.E. is and always has been the threat of a military attack. In regard to a military threat, the non-Shia dominated countries must join the U.S. and Israel to remove the threats posed by both ISIS and Iran. The U.S. and Israel shouldn't have to carry the entire burden.
 
So screw the Republican Party. About as mature as Obama comparing those that oppose the deal to Iranian hardliners.

Stupid format.

"Screw the Republican Party". Ok, I agree. This is pure bullshit partisanship in a possibly dangerous situation. I think they're rejecting the deal because they WANT to go to war with Iran.
 
"Screw the Republican Party". Ok, I agree. This is pure bullshit partisanship in a possibly dangerous situation. I think they're rejecting the deal because they WANT to go to war with Iran.
They are rejecting the deal because the election season is already heating up, and they figure misrepresenting this deal as something other than what it is will help them position themselves as the party of security next November.
 
They are rejecting the deal because the election season is already heating up, and they figure misrepresenting this deal as something other than what it is will help them position themselves as the party of security next November.

That's true. I also believe some of them truly want war. To some of these people its a Christian vs Muslim thing.
 
Someone sure is spending a lot to sink the deal. I am not used to seeing this much money spent in the Indy market for foreign policy. Where does all this cash come from, certainly Indy is not the only market seeing this.
 
They are rejecting the deal because the election season is already heating up, and they figure misrepresenting this deal as something other than what it is will help them position themselves as the party of security next November.

We were completely out-negotiated in every way. But what are the other options now? I haven't seen a single one proposed.
 
That's true. I also believe some of them truly want war. To some of these people its a Christian vs Muslim thing.

What is the difference between Khomeini and most of the GOP Presidential candidates? If Walker, Rubio, or the Huckster had their way we would all be going to church on Sundays. They only care about Israel because they believe it will be reclaimed. They don't care about Jews, but for their own sick religious perversions.
 
We were completely out-negotiated in every way. But what are the other options now? I haven't seen a single one proposed.
They are agreeing to restrictions on activities that, as a sovereign nation, they have every right to engage in, and in exchange, we are giving them access to money that belongs to them, anyway.

I'm not sure on what level we were "out-negotiated" here. What did you expect? For us to simply set the terms, and Iran, China and Russia to all meekly agree?
 
They are agreeing to restrictions on activities that, as a sovereign nation, they have every right to engage in, and in exchange, we are giving them access to money that belongs to them, anyway.

I'm not sure on what level we were "out-negotiated" here. What did you expect? For us to simply set the terms, and Iran, China and Russia to all meekly agree?

I don't think these sanctions have any real teeth to them. When you fund Hezbollah and engage in assassinations and operate outside the established order you lose some rights imo.

Zariff out-negotiated us at every step. The continued delays. The minimal inspections. My opinion is they will build a nuclear bomb deal or no deal if they so decide. As to the sanctions, in recent years they were skirting them through Dubai, China with middlemen.

Possibly we missed an opportunity some years back during the Green revolution. I'm not sure.

It's not even clear if a majority of Iranians support the deal. It's probably 60-40 in favor.
 
They are agreeing to restrictions on activities that, as a sovereign nation, they have every right to engage in, and in exchange, we are giving them access to money that belongs to them, anyway.

I'm not sure on what level we were "out-negotiated" here. What did you expect? For us to simply set the terms, and Iran, China and Russia to all meekly agree?
It's a bad deal. We didn't get Iran to do many of the things that civilized nations do, like NOT supporting terrorists that target and kill innocent civilians and NOT imprisoning and refusing to release innocent civilians from other countries like the four US citizens they have imprisoned. We didn't require them to do either of those things. In return for releasing their assets and easing the sanctions (allowing them more financial strength to support terrorists and to kill more innocent civilians) we get modest restraints to their nuclear program, at best - if they actually comply, which is probably less likely than likely. However, it's a bad deal we're going to be stuck with and the alternative is probably worse since we just gave up most of our leverage, though I doubt it's a lot worse. So THANKS OBAMA for negotiating a poor deal which apparently he considers better than no deal (since he said more than once no deal is better than a bad deal). This thing is set up so that it's nearly impossible for Congress to nullify it (if it's possible at all) so it's going to be voted down in a bipartisan fashion and the President will veto that and the veto won't be overridden. This will be the great diplomatic accomplishment of his Presidency I guess - until Iran is caught cheating. It's very possible that will happen before he's out of office. Thanks Obama . . .
 
  • Like
Reactions: mjvcaj
This should absolutely be approved.

Those opposed are not very well informed or thinking clearly, they are being led.

I just think this is the right continuing on in their anal captivity regarding anything Obama does. After all, they had a stated policy to oppose him on everything regardless if it was detrimental to our country or not.

So screw the republican party, those who participated and condoned this behavior don't deserve anyone's vote. Just like those that put religion before their oath to defend and uphold our Constitution against all comers.
You are assuming that Iran will abide by the agreement. If they don't, look for Russia and China to side with Iran to prevent the sanctions from being reinstated. What do you suppose Iranian General Soleimani discussed in his illegal meeting in Russia? Iran violated the current sanctions by allowing him to leave the country.

Iran doesn't need to build a nuke. They can make a deal with their friends in North Korea. Lifting the sanctions on the front end, opening up oil markets, returning $150 billion in asset, and not limiting ballistic missile development was a sweet deal for Iran. Meanwhile, they still hold 4 Americans and continue to support Hamas and Hezbollah.

In the unlikely event it was true they were 2 months away from a nuke, they might have a few hidden away before this can go into effect.
 
It's a bad deal. We didn't get Iran to do many of the things that civilized nations do, like NOT supporting terrorists that target and kill innocent civilians and NOT imprisoning and refusing to release innocent civilians from other countries like the four US citizens they have imprisoned. We didn't require them to do either of those things. In return for releasing their assets and easing the sanctions (allowing them more financial strength to support terrorists and to kill more innocent civilians) we get modest restraints to their nuclear program, at best - if they actually comply, which is probably less likely than likely. However, it's a bad deal we're going to be stuck with and the alternative is probably worse since we just gave up most of our leverage, though I doubt it's a lot worse. So THANKS OBAMA for negotiating a poor deal which apparently he considers better than no deal (since he said more than once no deal is better than a bad deal). This thing is set up so that it's nearly impossible for Congress to nullify it (if it's possible at all) so it's going to be voted down in a bipartisan fashion and the President will veto that and the veto won't be overridden. This will be the great diplomatic accomplishment of his Presidency I guess - until Iran is caught cheating. It's very possible that will happen before he's out of office. Thanks Obama . . .
I have no idea if this is going to end up a bad deal or not, but it sure sounds like your definition of "bad deal" is "deal in which we didn't get every single thing we asked for while compromising on nothing." That's just not realistic.
 
I have no idea if this is going to end up a bad deal or not, but it sure sounds like your definition of "bad deal" is "deal in which we didn't get every single thing we asked for while compromising on nothing." That's just not realistic.
url


A is the "and a pony" set of what Republicans would accept. B is the set of what Iran would accept. There's no possible deal that would satisfy Republicans.

A is also the set of what Iranian hardliners would accept, while B is the set of what America would accept. That's why, like Republicans, the Iranian hardliners oppose any conceivable deal.
 
url


A is the "and a pony" set of what Republicans would accept. B is the set of what Iran would accept. There's no possible deal that would satisfy Republicans.

A is also the set of what Iranian hardliners would accept, while B is the set of what America would accept. That's why, like Republicans, the Iranian hardliners oppose any conceivable deal.
Broken link on your image, there, but I'm pretty sure I can piece a Venn diagram of non-intersecting sets together in my head.
 
Broken link on your image, there, but I'm pretty sure I can piece a Venn diagram of non-intersecting sets together in my head.
There would be no deal if the Iranian hardliners that run Iran didn't approve of the deal. Our administration and the Iranian hardliners have agreed on this deal.
 
  • Like
Reactions: stollcpa
There would be no deal if the Iranian hardliners that run Iran didn't approve of the deal. Our administration and the Iranian hardliners have agreed on this deal.

The hardliners don't like this deal because they have profited tremendously under sanctions. They didn't have a choice.
 
There would be no deal if the Iranian hardliners that run Iran didn't approve of the deal. Our administration and the Iranian hardliners have agreed on this deal.
The hardliners have been vocally opposed to the deal since day one. They aren't getting what they want (which is all their $$$ plus no restrictions whatsoever on nukes).
 
How are you supposed to talk intelligently about foreign policy if you imagine other nations as caricatures?
The reality is that you aren't correct on who are really the hardliners. People are only allowed to say things if tolerated by the government. The government is controlled by the leading hardliner in Iran. I'm realistic. You're idealistic.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mjvcaj and stollcpa
The reality is that you aren't correct on who are really the hardliners. People are only allowed to say things if tolerated by the government. The government is controlled by the leading hardliner in Iran. I'm realistic. You're idealistic.

Khamenei is practically a moderate compared to the real "hard liners".
 
The reality is that you aren't correct on who are really the hardliners. People are only allowed to say things if tolerated by the government. The government is controlled by the leading hardliner in Iran. I'm realistic. You're idealistic.
It's not idealism. It's recognition that politics is complicated, and, yes, that includes in Iran. Leadership in Iran is complex. The hardliners and the moderates give and take. And as toasted says, Khamenei is by no means the hardest of all the liners.
 
Khamenei is practically a moderate compared to the real "hard liners".
He runs the country. He's a hardliner. People die in Iran for expressing unapproved opinions about issues like this. What they're saying really doesn't match what they want. It's obvious propaganda. They want the deal because the benefits for them far and away exceed the minuscule negatives for them.
 
He runs the country. He's a hardliner. People die in Iran for expressing unapproved opinions about issues like this. What they're saying really doesn't match what they want. It's obvious propaganda. They want the deal because the benefits for them far and away exceed the minuscule negatives for them.
People in Iran are expressing opposition to this deal. Others are expressing support.

Iran has a lot of problems, but it's not the monolithic radical power you imagine it is. Iranian politics are extremely complex.
 
There's no way our international experts are that myopic.

Well they might be... We were completely backfooted across the entire ME during the Arab Spring. Our calculations were simply awful. It's also amazing with the # of Soviet experts we posses how little we understand about Putin's current actions in Russia. So I presume we understand much less about the Iranian regime than we should.
 
Well they might be... We were completely backfooted across the entire ME during the Arab Spring. Our calculations were simply awful. It's also amazing with the # of Soviet experts we posses how little we understand about Putin's current actions in Russia. So I presume we understand much less about the Iranian regime than we should.
When I was in college, I had access to introductory level textbooks on Islamic politics that explained a lot of this. And although a lot of them are severely outdated, I always assumed our policy experts had access to at least the same quality of information. Imagining I am wrong about that is quite depressing.
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT