I live in Ohio, so I am getting the Tim Ryan / JD Vance ads constantly (including in my feed to the left right now =====>). One of the lessons that Democrats have not learned yet that Trump discovered early is that they flood the internet message boards and local youtube ad-spaces with their ads. They are cheap and effective. I can almost guarantee that part of Trump's success was getting their ads into the eyes 20 to 30 years-olds demographic who don't really care much one way or the other and are just voting out of duty. Just getting 1 in 20 of them can be the difference.
Anyway, I know it is sometimes uninformed and petty, but nothing turns me off to a candidate more than running nothing but attack ads. I have yet to see a JD Vance ad where he remotely says anything about what his platform is or what he wants to do as a senator. It is nothing but "Tim Ryan voted with Biden 100% of the time" or "Tim Ryan voted to give X million dollars to the Boston Marathon bomber!" (The last one is indeed, a direct quote, and also a lie, a potential entry into the recent thread below about "how can politicians get away with lying").
I tend to vote Republican local and Democratic on the national level, and state tends to run 50/50 for me (For example, I will be voting for DeWine). I suspect Vance will win by about 2 or 3 points, but in the off chance he loses, I'll put 50 bucks on the table right now that he goes down the voter fraud path.