Dems feel increasingly bullish about PA, both in terms of early vote as well as ED prospects.
First off despite increased efforts and turnout from GOP registered voters, Dems still lead 941,000--547,000 in terms of votes cast by registered Dems vs registered Pubs. So nearly a 400,000 vote lead.
But beyond just the raw numbers, Dems are pretty happy with the composition of the early vote...
With the already demonstrated generation gap in the early vote in PA (Women lead by 13%), as well as the generation gap that shows up in actual polling it's reasonable to assume that some of the registered female repubs who voted early by mail so far are voting for Harris. And of the GOP mail votes that have been cast they are overwhelmingly coming from areas where Haley did very well in the Primary. For reference PA has a closed Primary and Haley got over 130,000 votes in PA despite the Primary occurring 7 weeks after she left the race.
We won't know how Haley voters split until after the election. But a significant number of GOP voters who cast mail ballots in 2020 actually voted for Biden. So it's pretty reasonable to assume a number of these early votes cast by Haley supporters are voting for Harris. But we won't find out till the votes are counted...
Also fully 93% of the early GOP vote comes from 2020 voters. Which means they aren't doing a good job of turning out new or lower propensity voters. Of that 547,000 votes returned early by the GOP, 47% come from voters who voted on ED in 2020.
On the other hand of the 940,000 votes returned by Dems only 12% come from people who voted on election day in 2020. That means the Dems total includes a combination of both mail voters from 2020, as well as New or non-2020 voters...
Voter registration in Nevada is down to +8755 D. On Sept. 30th the gap was just short of 19k for the Ds. I don’t have a number for GOP voters now registered in Nevada. It was 574,270 on Sept 30th. I have this idea that pushing early voting (this is what the Ds have done so well since 2004) actually increases that party’s overall vote. It looks like to be that the GOP could have added 15,000 new voters since Oct 1st and since they are doing so during early voting it’s an actual vote. I was wrong about cannibalizing the vote in the past. I think we could seeing +500,000 GOP votes cast this year and the GOP is shy of 370,000 cast right now. There is a lot more potential GOP votes out there for IPEV (today), mail in ballots and EV.
Have the returned numbers from Clark Co been updated yet. As of last night they were still lagging significantly behind...
