Russia-Ukraine war has begun

[toastedbread]

No way. Wargames show we cannot hold them. Retaking becomes very expensive.

So you are saying we would not uphold are NATO obligations if Russia moved on a Baltic state? Or we would throw a few sacrifical lambs? (troops), but with no real hope of preventing Russia from a takeover?

Actually it’s on topic … if sanctions only apply to occupied territories … with potential Ukrainian majorities (for now) … the announced sanctions are more likely to hurt Ukrainians more. And Russians not at all. Your conclusion is quite correct. … “This is nothing except it makes you look completely inept and foolish.”

And won’t dissuade anyone from pushing on to Kyev… it’s not even a slap on the wrist.

I think Ukrainian majorities in name only. I don't think any relations currently exist between the 2 breakaway regions and the Ukraine state. Moreover, if I'm not mistaken, anyone who wishes to collect their pension would actually need to enter Ukrainian controlled Ukraine. I doubt the breakaway regions have any current business interests with the "west" and certainly their leaders do not. I would add that it's not even clear to me that we should be arming Ukraine, as I think there are extremely unsavory characters on their side. I just think we are completely rudderless.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

It was two autocrats playing autocrat bridge. Nothing more.

Russia, China work on agreement for supplying 100 mln tonnes of coal — Energy Ministry

More $$$$ for Russia.

 

[twenty02]

Off topic, but the sanctions of the two breakaway regions is so absurd and silly. It's just completely irrelevant and laughable. Either you apply some sanctions to Russia or you do nothing. This is nothing except it makes you look completely inept and foolish.

Sure.... but nothing actually happened today. Other than some words from the Kremlin stating what was already the obvious.

So announcing meaningless sanctions is just more of the game. Definitely can't shoot your wad prematurely in a situation like this.

 

[toastedbread]

Russia, China work on agreement for supplying 100 mln tonnes of coal — Energy Ministry

More $$$$ for Russia.

It's a piece of paper. Memorandum of understanding? I'm not even sure it's that. A goal perhaps? In theory Iran has a treaty with China and a military cooperation agreement with Russia. They are pieces of paper you could wipe you buttocks with.

 

[toastedbread]

Sure.... but nothing actually happened today. Other than some words from the Kremlin stating what was already the obvious.

So announcing meaningless sanctions is just more of the game. Definitely can't shoot your wad prematurely in a situation like this.

Russian tanks were moved into the 2 regions. That is an escalation and a serious one. You have to start applying some costs to Russia now imo and not wait until Kiev is sacked.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Ukrainian in what sense? ethnically Ukrainian? I doubt it.

World opinion does not matter to Putin. Russia only understands muscle.

I’ve spoken to several Eastern Ukrainians. They say they’re Russians. It’s weird.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

I would use a very simple definition, which his what do they call themselves. Likely those in question refer to themselves as Russian.

That is correct

 

[toastedbread]

I’ve spoken to several Eastern Ukrainians. They say they’re Russians. It’s weird.

Thanks. Are they ethnically Russian? Or just Russian speakers as their native language? And you mean territory that is currently part of Ukraine?

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Thanks. Are they ethnically Russian? Or just Russian speakers as their native language? And you mean territory that is currently part of Ukraine?

As far as the Ukrainians I know - only those in Kyiv are really “Ukrainian.” The ones from the east I have no idea - they just consider themselves Russian despite having borne children in what is now eastern Ukraine.

 

[toastedbread]

As far as the Ukrainians I know - only those in Kyiv are really “Ukrainian.” The ones from the east I have no idea - they just consider themselves Russian despite having borne children in what is now eastern Ukraine.

I haven't spent time in Eastern Ukraine, so I can't make an informed comment. From recent reading, I think many who previously "supported" Russia are afraid after witnessing the degradation of society in the breakaway regions. The conditions are not good. Thus there is a recent shift in preference to remain part of Ukraine.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

I haven't spent time in Eastern Ukraine, so I can't make an informed comment. From recent reading, I think many who previously "supported" Russia are afraid after witnessing the degradation of society in the breakaway regions. The conditions are not good. Thus there is a recent shift in preference to remain part of Ukraine.

Could be the case. My convos are a decade old. Perhaps chest thumping. Perhaps too much vodka.

 

[twenty02]

I'm old enough to recall Mitt Romney being mocked and ridiculed in 2012 for calling Russia our biggest geopolitical foe.

 

[TomEric4756]

I think the major caveat here is nuclear weapons. Which also prevent serious conflict with Russia and allow Putin to run roughshod. In theory, would we defend the Baltics? Despite what our NATO treaty obligations are, I'm not sure.

No way. Wargames show we cannot hold them. Retaking becomes very expensive.

We (US/NATO) couldn’t likely build up a sufficient defense to start (say 3 armored divisions, 2 heavy infantry divisions and Auxiliaries) fast enough. Everything in Ukraine is effectively a couple days away by train.

How long would it take the Navy to sally from Norfolk and reach the Baltic Sea? There has never been a Baltic Sea exercise. There is a Russian port on the Baltic — Baltic republics are flanked to the south from the start.

During the cold part of the Cold War — the weapon of last resort was a tactical nuclear weapon.

 

[iuwclurker]

It's not an unremarkable opinion. Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine are all historically part of the same people, the same series of empires. The connection goes back to the Varangians and Rurik over a thousand years ago. It's extremely common for Russians to feel that Ukraine is naturally part of their polity. As Ranger has pointed out a few times, the feeling is shared by more than a few Ukrainians, as well.

Interestingly what protected Slovenia as a small nation in its separation from Serbia was that Slovenians were an ethnic minority beyond all of its borders and within its borders it was relatively homogeneous.

 

[iuwclurker]

My understanding, which is not deep, but is mostly based on some NPR interviews, is that Russian/Ukrainian identity can be pretty fuzzy, ethnically and nationally speaking.

This is relatively easy to understand. The Ukraine was part of the USSR for decades. During that time many ethnic Russians moved there or were moved there for Russian dominance. That’s in addition to any who already lived there before the USSR was created.

Not dissimilar to Israeli occupation of the West Bank and migration of ethnicities within the six republics of Yugoslavia.

 

[iuwclurker]

Stalin was a Georgian.

Hitler was a Jew.

 

[iuwclurker]

I wonder how many Ukrainians remember Stalin’s starvation of millions of Ukrainians.

All of those still alive.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

This is relatively easy to understand. The Ukraine was part of the USSR for decades. During that time many ethnic Russians moved there or were moved there for Russian dominance. That’s in addition to any who already lived there before the USSR was created.

Not dissimilar to Israeli occupation of the West Bank and migration of ethnicities within the six republics of Yugoslavia.

The Russians and Ukrainians are connected far more deeply and much more recently than the Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank. By centuries. It's not remotely comparable.

 

[twenty02]

The Russians and Ukrainians are connected far more deeply and much more recently than the Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank. By centuries. It's not remotely comparable.

Yes. It's not comparable. But the analogy is relevant when it comes to people actually alive and living in today's world.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Yes. It's not comparable. But the analogy is relevant when it comes to people actually alive and living in today's world.

Fair enough for the people who view it that way. But for Ranger's fans, that analogy would probably fall flat.

 

[twenty02]

Fair enough for the people who view it that way. But for Ranger's fans, that analogy would probably fall flat.

I'm a believer that humans adapt to their own life and experiences a lot more than hearing stories about their ancestors. Of course, all of that feeds down in the filters they see things through, and is relevant. But ancient history is ancient for a reason.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I'm a believer that humans adapt to their own life and experiences a lot more than hearing stories about their ancestors. Of course, all of that feeds down in the filters they see things through, and is relevant. But ancient history is ancient for a reason.

Very good point. But if that really held, we wouldn't have such strong nationalist movements in, say, Catalonia, or Scotland, so there are clearly other factors at work.

Edit: Or maybe we would. Maybe I'm misplacing the drive behind said nationalist movements.

 

[twenty02]

Very good point. But if that really held, we wouldn't have such strong nationalist movements in, say, Catalonia, or Scotland, so there are clearly other factors at work.

Edit: Or maybe we would. Maybe I'm misplacing the drive behind said nationalist movements.

Nationalism is usually a symptom of something gone wrong within the nation.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Nationalism is usually a symptom of something gone wrong within the nation.

You're very wise tonight.

 

[twenty02]

You're very wise tonight.

I do my best work somewhere between beer 7-11.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I do my best work somewhere between beer 7-11.

I'm also in that special zone right now. I feel like we could probably solve all the world's problems tonight if we really wanted to.

 

[larsIU]

I'm also in that special zone right now. I feel like we could probably solve all the world's problems tonight if we really wanted to.

Make sure to write it down this time

 

[twenty02]

Make sure to write it down this time

I keep a notepad by my fridge for a reason!

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Make sure to write it down this time

I'll try to rremember to put it on the pad on teh fridge when I go out for the next beer. Not goonna fix those spelling errors.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Nationalism is usually a symptom of something gone wrong within the nation.

How so?

I think I disagree, but I’m not s use I understand your point.

FWIW, I think Norway is among the most nationalistic countries in the world If not the most nationalistic, i don’t think Norway has gone wrong.

 

[iuwclurker]

The Russians and Ukrainians are connected far more deeply and much more recently than the Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank. By centuries. It's not remotely comparable.

The parallel was strictly the policy of the Soviets to ship Russians into the Ukraine and settle them there as Israel settled the West Bank. That’s all I said, that’s all I meant.

 

[twenty02]

How so?

I think I disagree, but I’m not s use I understand your point.

FWIW, I think Norway is among the most nationalistic countries in the world If not the most nationalistic, i don’t think Norway has gone wrong.

Understanding of the human condition. Falling into tribes is the easiest and most natural condition for people, as it provides safety. Just like family provides a "nation" to all of us as we born into. It's a safe world.... and we all build from there in our lives.

When it becomes nation-states.... we all give some level of dedication to a human created existence that makes us feel safe to these states. That leverage of 'safety' from 'others' is easily manipulated in politics. It has been done ever since we walked from caves.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

The parallel was strictly the policy of the Soviets to ship Russians into the Ukraine and settle them there as Israel settled the West Bank. That’s all I said, that’s all I meant.

I get it now. Thanks.

 

[iuwclurker]

Understanding of the human condition. Falling into tribes is the easiest and most natural condition for people, as it provides safety. Just like family provides a "nation" to all of us as we born into. It's a safe world.... and we all build our from there in our lives.

When it becomes nation-states.... we all give some level of dedication to a human created existence that makes us feel safe. That leverage of 'safety' from 'others' is easily manipulated in politics. It has been done ever since we walked from caves.

Trees.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Understanding of the human condition. Falling into tribes is the easiest and most natural condition for people, as it provides safety. Just like family provides a "nation" to all of us as we born into. It's a safe world.... and we all build from there in our lives.

When it becomes nation-states.... we all give some level of dedication to a human created existence that makes us feel safe to these states. That leverage of 'safety' from 'others' is easily manipulated in politics. It has been done ever since we walked from caves.

People underestimate just how much Westphalia defines our existence.

 

[twenty02]

People underestimate just how much Westphalia defines our existence.

I love your posts because it makes me look up something that I have no idea what it is.

But yes.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Understanding of the human condition. Falling into tribes is the easiest and most natural condition for people, as it provides safety. Just like family provides a "nation" to all of us as we born into. It's a safe world.... and we all build from there in our lives.

When it becomes nation-states.... we all give some level of dedication to a human created existence that makes us feel safe to these states. That leverage of 'safety' from 'others' is easily manipulated in politics. It has been done ever since we walked from caves.

Isn’t falling into tribes inconsistent with nationalism?

When I spent time in Norway several years ago, I was struck by a number of indicia of genuine nationalism that I haven’t observed elsewhere. I asked a good friend who is a first generation Norwegian and visits there often about that. He said Norwegians love the land and are very proud if their history from the Vikings to Nazi resistance. I view nationalism as profound affection for a country. Norwegians have that. Coalescing around tribes is not the same.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I love your posts because it makes me look up something that I have no idea what it is.

But yes.

Without it, our revolution wouldn't have even made sense. A land declaring they were a people would have been incomprehensible. By older standards, we should have always been English, and nothing else.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

I love your posts because it makes me look up something that I have no idea what it is.

But yes.

I had a 1972 Westfalia. Now I know why we always flashed headlights at other Westfalias. We were all members of a tribe.

 

[Bill4411]

Reagan was right and Russia remains the douchiest country on the planet.