Russia-Ukraine war has begun

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

With Putin's announcement that he'd send troops into Donetsk and Luhansk, and with reports tonight that Russian troops are already rolling through the region, Russia has officially and openly invaded Ukrainian territory. Of course, they were probably already there, anyway, but now there is no room for denial.

This thread is for the foreign policy wonks who got crowded out of the previous thread by the predictable political bullshit. None of that in this thread, please. Let's keep this one focused.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

With Putin's announcement that he'd send troops into Donetsk and Luhansk, and with reports tonight that Russian troops are already rolling through the region, Russia has officially and openly invaded Ukrainian territory. Of course, they were probably already there, anyway, but now there is no room for denial.

This thread is for the foreign policy wonks who got crowded out of the previous thread by the predictable political bullshit. None of that in this thread, please. Let's keep this one focused.

Draw a line in the sand for a limit of advance - prenegotiated ahead of time - and let sleeping dogs lie.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Draw a line in the sand for a limit of advance - prenegotiated ahead of time - and let sleeping dogs lie.

In other words, let Russia effectively annex territory already held by separatists, and move on. Is that right?

Not saying I disagree if that's what you mean. It's what we did with Crimea, and that was probably the only move there, too.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

On a related note, Reuters is reporting that agreements between Putin and the leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk give Russia the right to build military bases in the regions.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

In other words, let Russia effectively annex territory already held by separatists, and move on. Is that right?

Not saying I disagree if that's what you mean. It's what we did with Crimea, and that was probably the only move there, too.

I see no other choice, but they cross that line and the pipeline have a series of very unfortunate accidents.

 

[larsIU]

Honest question. How much can we (USA) squeeze Russia financially before Europe throws in the towel?

 

[Morrison]

Draw a line in the sand for a limit of advance - prenegotiated ahead of time - and let sleeping dogs lie.

Then invite Ukraine to join NATO?😊

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Honest question. How much can we (USA) squeeze Russia financially before Europe throws in the towel?

It depends how quickly we can wean Germany off Russian gas.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

In other words, let Russia effectively annex territory already held by separatists, and move on. Is that right?

Not saying I disagree if that's what you mean. It's what we did with Crimea, and that was probably the only move there, too.

Yea that’s what I mean. I’ve spoken to people in those regions. They’re Russian if you ask them.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Yea that’s what I mean. I’ve spoken to people in those regions. They’re Russian if you ask them.

Do you think the line in the sand should be the current "ceasefire" line, or the territory actually claimed by Donetsk and Luhansk? Because Russia could engage in some limited offensive moves here under the banner of protecting their new partners.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Do you think the line in the sand should be the current "ceasefire" line, or the territory actually claimed by Donetsk and Luhansk? Because Russia could engage in some limited offensive moves here under the banner of protecting their new partners.

Realistically the D and L territories. And then we need to have serious talks with those that prop up Russia's economy.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Realistically the D and L territories. And then we need to have serious talks with those that prop up Russia's economy.

Biden and NATO are going to look weak if this plus some further action fall under the infamous "minor incursion" rubric.

Again, I don't disagree with you, I'm just thinking out loud about some of the consequences.

 

[Spartans9312]

Two breakaway republics…then if feasible, Mariupol and Odessa.

That is about all they can do.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Biden and NATO are going to look weak if this plus some further action fall under the infamous "minor incursion" rubric.

Again, I don't disagree with you, I'm just thinking out loud about some of the consequences.

Biden is going to look weak until NATO sacks up. This isn’t on Biden.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Biden is going to look weak until NATO sacks up. This isn’t on Biden.

What do you think constitutes sacking up at this point?

 

[larsIU]

It depends how quickly we can wean Germany off Russian gas.

So, we don’t have long.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

What do you think constitutes sacking up at this point?

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

From The Guardian (sorry for the copypasta formatting):

Russian president Vladimir Putin’s decision to send troops he called “peacemakers” into breakaway regions of Ukraine has not as yet constituted a further invasion that would trigger a broader sanctions package, a Biden administration official told Reuters.

The United States will continue to pursue diplomacy with Russia until “tanks roll,” another official said.

Putin’s recognition of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine as independent and his order to send in troops was met with widespread condemnation from the west.

However, one administration official told Reuters sending Russian troops into the separatist regions was not a departure from what Russia had done already, which was why it did not trigger broader sanctions.

Speaking to reporters on a conference call, the official said:

This isn’t a further invasion since it’s territory that they’ve already occupied.
Russian troops moving into Donbas would not itself be a new step. Russia has had forces in the Donbas region for the past eight years... They are currently now making decisions to do this in a more overt and ... open way.
Russia continues to escalate this crisis that it created in the first place. We’ll continue to pursue diplomacy until the tanks roll, but we are under no illusions about what is likely to come next.”

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

What do you think constitutes sacking up at this point?

UN Security Council resolution against Russia. Over the top sanctions. Carrier battle group in the eastern med.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

UN Security Council resolution against Russia. Over the top sanctions. Carrier battle group in the eastern med.

I'm not an expert on UNSC procedure, but is that even possible? Doesn't Russia have veto power as a permanent member?

Agree the sanctions must be insane.

 

[larsIU]

So, we don’t have long.

I’ll stop being so lazy. Looks like about 1/2 of Germanys natural gas imports come from Russia. They have some stored reserves but probably only a few months. Then they are screwed unless we can provide it (I have no idea how/if gas can be transported overseas).

How dependent is Germany on Russian gas?

Russian forces invaded Ukraine on Thursday, sending European gas prices higher and increasing the focus on gas supply in countries including Germany, which is Europe's largest economy and imports most of the gas it consumes.

www.reuters.com

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

I'm not an expert on UNSC procedure, but is that even possible? Doesn't Russia have veto power as a permanent member?

Agree the sanctions must be insane.

Yeah it is not likely. But we’re needing to go on record trying. And the sanctions must be devastating.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I’ll stop being so lazy. Looks like about 1/2 of Germanys natural gas imports come from Russia. They have some stored reserves but probably only a few months. Then they are screwed unless we can provide it (I have no idea how/if gas can be transported overseas).

How dependent is Germany on Russian gas?

Russian forces invaded Ukraine on Thursday, sending European gas prices higher and increasing the focus on gas supply in countries including Germany, which is Europe's largest economy and imports most of the gas it consumes.

www.reuters.com

LNG is how you do it. I'm not sure how feasible it is to replace that much supply with it, though.

 

[DrHoops]

Biden and NATO are going to look weak if this plus some further action fall under the infamous "minor incursion" rubric.

Again, I don't disagree with you, I'm just thinking out loud about some of the consequences.

I agree. I don't think Ukraine should just roll over and give Russia everything it's demanding. If that happens, they can do the same thing in the other former Soviet territories.

I think Russia needs to pay a heavy economic price for this.

 

[larsIU]

LNG is how you do it. I'm not sure how feasible it is to replace that much supply with it, though.

Doesn’t look real feasible. Might buy some time. While it seems we have plentiful NG supply we are a bit down on the cooling facilities needed to transport as LNG. Hindsight’s always 20/20

Gas gap in Europe drives U.S. LNG exports to record high

Sky-high European demand drove U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to a record in December, Refinitiv data showed, with winter supply worries set to sustain orders for the fuel.

www.reuters.com

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Doesn’t look real feasible. Might buy some time. While it seems we have plentiful NG supply we are a bit down on the cooling facilities needed to transport as LNG. Hindsight’s always 20/20

Gas gap in Europe drives U.S. LNG exports to record high

Sky-high European demand drove U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to a record in December, Refinitiv data showed, with winter supply worries set to sustain orders for the fuel.

www.reuters.com

It's incredible, the things we can do, but how quickly that incredibility is run up against what we can't do.

 

[Morrison]

It's incredible, the things we can do, but how quickly that incredibility is run up against what we can't do.

So, is Putin willing to completely destroy his economy for his expansionist goals? It sure seems like he DGAF. That will only make him more unpredictable and dangerous.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

So, is Putin willing to completely destroy his economy for his expansionist goals? It sure seems like he DGAF. That will only make him more unpredictable and dangerous.

I haven't figured out what he's thinking. He might be playing chess many dimensions above my capability. But if you are right, then, yes, he is incredibly dangerous. Hell, he could decide to take on NATO and invade Estonia next.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I haven't figured out what he's thinking. He might be playing chess many dimensions above my capability. But if you are right, then, yes, he is incredibly dangerous. Hell, he could decide to take on NATO and invade Estonia next.

He seems to have China's support, can China bail him out?

Or does he think the west won't absorb the pain themselves.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

He seems to have China's support, can China bail him out?

Or does he think the west won't absorb the pain themselves.

I think he is expecting more from China than he will get from them.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Honest question. How much can we (USA) squeeze Russia financially before Europe throws in the towel?

We can’t. Putin has been planning this move for years. He accelerated it after our change in energy policy. Energy is Putin’s leverage. The United States has no leverage.

Sanctions? I’m not seeing it. China has Putin’s back and Germany, the most vibrant economy in Europe, has decided to suck on Russian energy. Germany will never participate in sanctions. Merkel cozied up to Putin years ago and our effort to change her went nowhere. Scholz is more left than she was.

Putin is in the driver’s seat.

 

[TomEric4756]

On a related note, Reuters is reporting that agreements between Putin and the leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk give Russia the right to build military bases in the regions.

Nothing better to consolidate a gain than putting a couple of armored divisions and a forward tactical airbase (just) out of artillery range.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Nothing better to consolidate a gain than putting a couple of armored divisions and a forward tactical airbase (just) out of artillery range.

Regardless of what international recognition claims, Crimea is no longer part of Ukraine. That will soon be the case with the Donbas, as well.

 

[Morrison]

We can’t. Putin has been planning this move for years. He accelerated it after our change in energy policy. Energy is Putin’s leverage. The United States has no leverage.

Sanctions? I’m not seeing it. China has Putin’s back and Germany, the most vibrant economy in Europe, has decided to suck on Russian energy. Germany will never participate in sanctions. Merkel cozied up to Putin years ago and our effort to change her went nowhere. Scholz is more left than she was.

Putin is in the driver’s seat.

You’re probably right, which is why the Biden Administration’s response to this crises is heavy on controlling world opinion of Putin’s move.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

You’re probably right, which is why the Biden Administration’s response to this crises is heavy on controlling world opinion of Putin’s move.

In hindsight, it does look like it's going to read like this:

USA: Russia is doing A.
Russia: No, we aren't.
USA: Russia is totally doing A.
Russia: We really are not.
USA: I'm telling you, Russia is doing A.
Russia: Knock it off, we totally aren't.

/Russia does A.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

Regardless of what international recognition claims, Crimea is no longer part of Ukraine. That will soon be the case with the Donbas, as well.

Putin said Ukraine is not part of Ukraine. He said Ukraine is part of Russia.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Putin said Ukraine is not part of Ukraine. He said Ukraine is part of Russia.

It's not an unremarkable opinion. Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine are all historically part of the same people, the same series of empires. The connection goes back to the Varangians and Rurik over a thousand years ago. It's extremely common for Russians to feel that Ukraine is naturally part of their polity. As Ranger has pointed out a few times, the feeling is shared by more than a few Ukrainians, as well.

 

[toastedbread]

In other words, let Russia effectively annex territory already held by separatists, and move on. Is that right?

Not saying I disagree if that's what you mean. It's what we did with Crimea, and that was probably the only move there, too.

I don't think Putin will stop there. He is bolstered by recent success in Kazakhstan and Syria among various African nations.

I see no other choice, but they cross that line and the pipeline have a series of very unfortunate accidents.

The mistake was in not sanctioning various oligarchs, etc. I've been suggesting this for years. We take all of their money. Their kids go to prep school in Miami and London. They buy football teams. Total impunity. We should have put the pressure on them a long time ago instead of always leading from behind.

Yea that’s what I mean. I’ve spoken to people in those regions. They’re Russian if you ask them.

You've spoken to Russians in Luhansk and Donetsk?

Biden and NATO are going to look weak if this plus some further action fall under the infamous "minor incursion" rubric.

Again, I don't disagree with you, I'm just thinking out loud about some of the consequences.

I think the Biden administration takes a negotiating track of diplomacy as a religion as Bennett said recently. Putin has been making them look ridiculous for weeks with these fruitless meetings as he continues to execute his military strategy. I support an Iran nuke deal, but the Biden admin has taken the track of "bend over-how far" to an extreme. Recently one of the prior lead negotiators from the original deal resigned out of disgust at the extent of the bending over. We are negotiating as if we are a developing nation with an economy in crises and not the ones with the strongest military in the world. It's quite odd to me. Put in will sack Kiev and install his puppet while we are still debating about debating about diplomacy. It's a very sad and pathetic look. You don't move massive amounts of material and men from Vladivostok to Ukraine as an academic

UN Security Council resolution against Russia. Over the top sanctions. Carrier battle group in the eastern med.

UN???

LNG is how you do it. I'm not sure how feasible it is to replace that much supply with it, though.

Interestingly, Qatar was recently named a major non-nato allly. I thought it was odd consider they are "allies" with all. They play all sides constantly. They can probably pick up much of the slack. Iran perhaps after we are done bending over? But, I'm not certain of the state of their infrastructure.

So, is Putin willing to completely destroy his economy for his expansionist goals? It sure seems like he DGAF. That will only make him more unpredictable and dangerous.

Well so far he has seen the extent of western sanctions... plus he is sitting on hefty financial reserves at the moment...

He seems to have China's support, can China bail him out?

Or does he think the west won't absorb the pain themselves.

I think he is expecting more from China than he will get from them.

We can’t. Putin has been planning this move for years. He accelerated it after our change in energy policy. Energy is Putin’s leverage. The United States has no leverage.

Sanctions? I’m not seeing it. China has Putin’s back and Germany, the most vibrant economy in Europe, has decided to suck on Russian energy. Germany will never participate in sanctions. Merkel cozied up to Putin years ago and our effort to change her went nowhere. Scholz is more left than she was.

Putin is in the driver’s seat.

China and Russia do not have great relations. Surface level. But Putin does not need China at the moment.

 

[larsIU]

We can’t. Putin has been planning this move for years. He accelerated it after our change in energy policy. Energy is Putin’s leverage. The United States has no leverage.

Sanctions? I’m not seeing it. China has Putin’s back and Germany, the most vibrant economy in Europe, has decided to suck on Russian energy. Germany will never participate in sanctions. Merkel cozied up to Putin years ago and our effort to change her went nowhere. Scholz is more left than she was.

Putin is in the driver’s seat.

Well then, delivery of LNG to Western Europe is going to become a real big opportunity out for the US. I suspect we’ll hear about some acceleration of projects to expand our cooling capabilities to foster more delivery. This will take several years however. But is the right move both from a security/geopolitical standpoint as well as financially for American companies. So Putin is in the lead because nobody really gives a shit about Ukraine. But lines are being drawn on the sand. The US must respond in a way that foster the separation of Western Europe from Russia

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

China and Russia do not have great relations. Surface level. But Putin does not need China at the moment.

But if and when he does need them, I expect he will be disappointed.