Ukrainian in what sense? ethnically Ukrainian? I doubt it.
World opinion does not matter to Putin. Russia only understands muscle.
Russia-Ukraine war has begun
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
My understanding, which is not deep, but is mostly based on some NPR interviews, is that Russian/Ukrainian identity can be pretty fuzzy, ethnically and nationally speaking.
We have to consider the ability of each party to withstand conflict. So far it appears Russia is willing and able to withstand pain, from which the western nations wince before the pain begins. I think the need of Russia to rely on support about China is a quite distant issue.
I would use a very simple definition, which his what do they call themselves. Likely those in question refer to themselves as Russian.
2020 LNG exports ended on a downward trend and export terminal plans got canceled…
Why would anyone trust this administration to deliver export the very energy it is working hard to keep in the ground.
(It takes 4 years just to build a facility. How does that get Nat.Gas and refined petroleum to Western Europe… next month.)
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44196
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/can...ect-signals-potential-headwinds-for-u-s-fids/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/lng-developers-another-year-canceled-projects-2021-05-18/
https://www.maritime.dot.gov/ports/...hdrawn-cancelled-and-disapproved-applications
https://www.spglobal.com/marketinte...l-for-controls-amid-world-gas-crunch-68570686
Ideologues were pleased with the “green“ policies… lots will live with the consequences.
India and China will burn more coal instead …
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This will require a change in policy direction in addition to the physical ability to be an LNG exporter.
It's a big world. It doesn't have to all come from us. But I would expect to see whatever sanctions package emerges to also find itself paired with policy shifts that increase LNG production. Asserting our power in Europe requires keeping Germany on board. That's just a reality. So we will do what needs to be done.
Putin and Xi met before the Olympics. I think that was one of the final bases Putin covered before today’s action.
Yep. Hopefully the PTB inside the beltway will work to remove any regulatory constraints to make this happen. I say that as a liberal. Geopolitical concerns override partisan hackery. I’ll be disappointed if they don’t.
This is why I started the thread. There are interesting political concerns, of course, but these kinds of issues rise above all of them in the long run.
I wonder how many Ukrainians remember Stalin’s starvation of millions of Ukrainians.
But defining current moves as being short of an invasion is back peddling and weak. Every single CNN contributor tonight said this is absolutely an invasion.
We were the world's largest exporter in December, we have a huge system coming online by the end of the year.
www.google.com
US becomes world’s top LNG exporter for first time ever
Output from American LNG facilities outpaced Qatar in December, according to data tracked by Bloomberg.
As an added benefit, this will be good for us economically, too.We were the world's largest exporter in December, we have a huge system coming online by the end of the year.
US becomes world’s top LNG exporter for first time ever
Output from American LNG facilities outpaced Qatar in December, according to data tracked by Bloomberg.
Why do you think the inside beltway PTB changed the policy a year ago? Don’t the reasons still exist?
Yeah, I was wrong, I did not think they would go through with it. If they expand outside the Donbass, I still think Ukraine needs to go guerilla and make it a drawn out affair. I would also consider blowing bridges up across the Dnieper if the Russians push that far.
(I’m sure it’s taught in school … Ukrainians weren’t particularly Russian that year).
I absolutely believe the Ukrainians will not give up as quickly as the Afghans did. They will become a guerilla force. It will become ugly. Lots of violence in the future.
If the real objective is Kiev … the troops in Belarus will drive south on the next planned pretext. The Dnieper bridges aren’t needed for that.
Mostly a show imo. Google china russia trade v china us trade. And I'm not going to get into a variety of tensions that exist in the China-Russia relationship;
It was two autocrats playing autocrat bridge. Nothing more.
I've been saying for weeks you don't move this amount of material and people for nothing. Russia is an enormous country. We are talking people and equipment moving upwards of 6,000 miles. It's not a joke.
Ukraine needs to undertake a Ludendorff type effort. Total war. The entire state must resist. If I was in Ukrainian leadership I would be arranging acts of sabotage within Russian cities. Acts of mass terrorism. Russians must feel real pain and blood if Ukraine is to resist. I don't know that a comedian is capable of leading these types of monstrosities.
Russia has enough troops to override Ukraine. They don't have enough troops to hold it indefinitely. It will be painful.
No, you can write off the east of the country to a certain degree if Russia desires. They have too many avenues to invade. I am more thinking from the standpoint of having an invading Russian Army pushing west through Ukraine up to the borders of NATO allies Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Additionally, if Ukraine is able to hold the west, there are multiple avenues for NATO to dump arms into the country to hopefully make Russia's occupation difficult.
Probably. But it remains to be seen how Ukrainians will actually respond when they are punched in the face. Will their spirit fade and they lay down arms? Some will switch sides for the right price.
Basically among major nations there is India (unaligned), then there is the US/Europe/Japan/Canada/Austria, and the China and Russia. If something happens to Putin, China is really isolated. I think she likes having Russia as is, seen as a bit mad. It takes a lot of pressure off China.
By major nations you mean trade? Or in what sense? South Korea is one of the stronger militaries. I don't think Austria belongs on the same page frankly.
Japan/Russia continue to have territorial dispute.
The situation has changed. Perhaps they were shortsighted a year ago but now it’s in our face. I can’t believe anybody's that shortsighted.
Yep, they have disputes. But those are not as great as our disputes with either.
Add S Korea into the west camp, it makes the case stronger.
China does not want to live with western ideas on things like licensing or human rights. Pretty much every other nation, including non-aligned India, accept those ideals. TPP was an attempt to get the world to isolate China. Russia was not in TPP. China's potential allies are North Korea and Russia. Not since Germany picked Austo-Hungary and Turkey has a country wasted their draft picks this badly.
If Russia went pro-west, China would be reduced to North Korea as an ally.
Their families do but then there were the Germans. Khrushchev felt very badly about all the woes that the Ukrainian people have endured and he wasn't exactly a soft touch.
Off topic, but the sanctions of the two breakaway regions is so absurd and silly. It's just completely irrelevant and laughable. Either you apply some sanctions to Russia or you do nothing. This is nothing except it makes you look completely inept and foolish.
Yes this is fractured .. but still illustrative.
There’s probably room for Belarus somewhere … the troops are already there.
The Belarus leadership is unpopular.
Crimea/Georgia == Saarland/Rhineland
Donbass == Sudetenland
Kiev/Ukraine == Vienna/Austria?
Poland == Poland?
Along as Germans depend on russian natural gas … Putin doesn’t really need the DDR back.
There’s probably room for Belarus somewhere … the troops are already there.
The Belarus leadership is unpopular.
Crimea/Georgia == Saarland/Rhineland
Donbass == Sudetenland
Kiev/Ukraine == Vienna/Austria?
Poland == Poland?
Along as Germans depend on russian natural gas … Putin doesn’t really need the DDR back.
I think the major caveat here is nuclear weapons. Which also prevent serious conflict with Russia and allow Putin to run roughshod. In theory, would we defend the Baltics? Despite what our NATO treaty obligations are, I'm not sure.
Actually it’s on topic … if sanctions only apply to occupied territories … with potential Ukrainian majorities (for now) … the announced sanctions are more likely to hurt Ukrainians more. And Russians not at all. Your conclusion is quite correct. … “This is nothing except it makes you look completely inept and foolish.”
And won’t dissuade anyone from pushing on to Kyev… it’s not even a slap on the wrist.
Drone strikes to cut off retreat - let Ukraine cut em up piecemeal
But truth is that US and NATO are not gonna fight, and Western Europe needs Russian natural gas
this was a fait accompli when Germany stopped building nuke plants and the US withdrew forward missile shields from Poland
It’s just TV now, except Bernie Shaw News will probably be willing to brief Putin
