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Wow, there is a Democratic Party

But what will it be? It would have to shift pretty far to the left to compensate, no?
Good question. I don't know. But I know that party coalitions tend to change over time in response to one party becoming too powerful. Of course, we live in really untested political waters now, in terms of the money available, and the makeup of donor constituencies might not match the makeup of voter constituencies, which could push against those same shifts.
 
I'm seeing lots of victories by women this evening. One of the big programs that came out of the women marches and movement was encouraging more women to run at the local level. This first test seems to have been fairly successful.
 
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Maine statistical anomaly that highlights...something. I don't know how to put it, but it's certainly some kind absurdity within the electorate. Voting Clinton correlates with supporting Medicaid expansion. Voting Trump correlates with actually receiving Medicaid.

The other thing that drives me nuts is when I talk to seniors on Medicare that are strongly against any kind of government health care but look at me blankly when I tell them that their Medicare, which they like, is government health care.
 
Diversity won tonight. Tonight was a YUGE FECK YOU To Trump and Trumpism.

A transgender candidate won against the man who wrote the original bathroom bill. A Sikh candidate won, a black woman won, a victim of gun violence beat a candidate endorsed by the NRA and a civil rights lawyer who sued the police department just became Philly's top prosecutor.

I'm waiting for Trump supporters to explain this.................... Russians perhaps?
 
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This is going to be a very interesting area for poll-watchers to examine. The two most obvious explanations for widespread partisan poll error are 1) the overcorrection Silver mentions and 2) consistent late break for one party by undecideds. Figuring out the relative roles of those two will give us some insight into the current mindset of the electorate as a whole, and help shine some light moving forward on 2018 (for example, is the generic Congressional ballot - currently an 11-point Dem lead - also lowballing Dems).

Turnout.
 
Northam compared to Clinton by age group:
65+ - +2%
45-64 - +2%
30-44 - +8%
18-29 - +15%

Hillary was toxic. She sank Dems across the board.

Hell, with these recent Saudi arrests, Republicans are claiming on social media that they are tied to Clinton conspiracy theories. Many people are nuts.
 
I really doubt the GOP will be the party of old white men in 2040

It really depends how much damage the old white men do to the party brand in the minority community in the meantime. It took 100 years for blacks to pull the D lever. I do not think future Republican leaders will be able to rebuild trust in a single cycle or two.
 
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Dems will win the House next year.

I fully expect them to have total control of the Fed Govt by Jan 2021.
Wouldn't surprise me a bit and then they'll start saying they have a mandate from the voters (just like the Rs did) and they'll screw up their majority if a few years. It's a vicious cycle of one party getting in and thinking they can do what they want and forget the other voters that voted against them. They somehow think voters are voting for them when, IMO, a lot of voters are just voting against the other party and want a change. IIRC in 2010 there were several on here saying the Republican party was dead and we know that isn't true but I think some of the politicians think that way too and their arrogance gets them voted out.
 
Wouldn't surprise me a bit and then they'll start saying they have a mandate from the voters (just like the Rs did) and they'll screw up their majority if a few years. It's a vicious cycle of one party getting in and thinking they can do what they want and forget the other voters that voted against them. They somehow think voters are voting for them when, IMO, a lot of voters are just voting against the other party and want a change. IIRC in 2010 there were several on here saying the Republican party was dead and we know that isn't true but I think some of the politicians think that way too and their arrogance gets them voted out.

Yes, that's true...it's all a cycle. But how long does the cycle last? And does a losing party shift....or your just double down on defense/obstruction?
 
What’s the big deal! Democrats have held that seat for years and New York City the same.

The Virginia Governor's race isn't nearly as big of a deal as the House of Delegates results. The Dems haven't had more than 47 seats in the House of Delegates since 2000. If the results hold it'll be a 50/50 tie there and there's one seat where the Dems are only down by 12 votes which could flip with absentees/provisional ballots/recounts.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...te-races-could-be-most-telling-2017-elections

Cook Political Report said:
Think of it this way: if Democrats pick up five seats or less, Republicans would breathe a sigh of relief. If Democrats pick up five to ten seats, it would suggest Democrats are in contention for the House next year. If Democrats pick up 10 to 15 seats, it would be a strong sign they're on track to pick up the House majority next year. If Democrats pick up more than 15 seats, we're looking at a potential tidal wave in 2018.

The Dems are at 15 confirmed pickups, a 16th where they're ahead by about 70 votes, and a 17th where they're down by 12 votes.

Yes, that's true...it's all a cycle. But how long does the cycle last? And does a losing party shift....or your just double down on defense/obstruction?

Typically this continues until the White House flips unless the other party majorly screws up at the state/local level.
 
Wouldn't surprise me a bit and then they'll start saying they have a mandate from the voters (just like the Rs did) and they'll screw up their majority if a few years. It's a vicious cycle of one party getting in and thinking they can do what they want and forget the other voters that voted against them. They somehow think voters are voting for them when, IMO, a lot of voters are just voting against the other party and want a change. IIRC in 2010 there were several on here saying the Republican party was dead and we know that isn't true but I think some of the politicians think that way too and their arrogance gets them voted out.
All that may be, but I seriously doubt that the Dems will find someone as bad as Donald Trump to nominate.
 
Diversity won tonight. Tonight was a YUGE FECK YOU To Trump and Trumpism.

A transgender candidate won against the man who wrote the original bathroom bill. A Sikh candidate won, a black woman won, a victim of gun violence beat a candidate endorsed by the NRA and a civil rights lawyer who sued the police department just became Philly's top prosecutor.

I'm waiting for Trump supporters to explain this.................... Russians perhaps?

We don't need to explain it. Only liberals think transgenders, Sikhs, a designated victim, and a lawyer who sued police (BTW, I have too), are important to politics and policy. Policy is no longer relevant. The issues will be about people who matter and people who don't matter.
 
I fully expect them to have total control of the Fed Govt by Jan 2021.

The swamp will survive no matter who is in total control.

We've learned that "total control" doesn't mean squat. The GOP had total control and immigration reform failed. The democrats had total control in 2009 and only managed health care reform by employing a procedural sight of hand. No other significant legislation; unless, you count massive spending as significant. The GOP has total control now and hasn't done anything important.
 
I'm seeing lots of victories by women this evening. One of the big programs that came out of the women marches and movement was encouraging more women to run at the local level. This first test seems to have been fairly successful.

What affect does this have? In Denver early voting, Democratic women voters outnumbered Democratic men voters by about 2/3-1/3. That is very significant. Are Democratic men sinking into a "I don't give a damn" mode? I don't know if there is a connection, but among minorities, minority women are making making up the vast majority those minorities who are completing high school and furthering their educations. Minority men are lagging.

On the GOP side, voting is pretty close to 50/50.

This is a serious question. I have my own thoughts about how more women will change politics and policy I'm wondering what yours are.
 
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The swamp will survive no matter who is in total control.

We've learned that "total control" doesn't mean squat. The GOP had total control and immigration reform failed. The democrats had total control in 2009 and only managed health care reform by employing a procedural sight of hand. No other significant legislation; unless, you count massive spending as significant. The GOP has total control now and hasn't done anything important.
They can't do anything important because they have someone totally incompetent in the lead. Compare what OBama did to help healthcare care get passed as to what Trump did.
 
We don't need to explain it. Only liberals think transgenders, Sikhs, a designated victim, and a lawyer who sued police (BTW, I have too), are important to politics and policy. Policy is no longer relevant. The issues will be about people who matter and people who don't matter.

Only republicans think an unqualified, racist, bigoted, homophobic, sociopathic, narcissistic blow hard is important to politics and policy. I guess you have to decide who you’re willing to take your chances with.
 
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What affect does this have? In Denver early voting, Democratic women voters outnumbered Democratic men voters by about 2/3-1/3. That is very significant. Are Democratic men sinking into a "I don't give a damn" mode? I don't know if there is a connection, but among minorities, minority women are making making up the vast majority those minorities who are completing high school and furthering their educations. Minority men are lagging.

On the GOP side, voting is pretty close to 50/50.

This is a serious question. I have my own thoughts about how more women will change politics and policy I'm wondering what yours are.
I don't think we will know for quite awhile how having more women in office will actually affect policies. My guess is that women might be more willing to actually sit down with the other side to hammer out compromises. I don't think it's a coincidence that Collins, Snowe, and Murkowski are one of the few moderates in the GOP brave enough to stand against Trump. I think health care and gun control would be big issues that women would work together to make some changes. You can't really generalize about women any more than you can men though, obviously. Right now, I'm just looking at some of the individual races and enjoying the irony of the transgender woman beating the author of the bathroom bill and the woman that beat the incumbent male who was so dismissive of the women's marches.
 
Collins, Snowe, and Murkowski are one of the few moderates in the GOP brave enough to stand against Trump.

I don't think they "stood up against Trump". I think they thought the proposed reforms were not a good idea.

I sense for you politics is all about groups of people and personalities, and not about policy and ideas.

Thanks for the post. I'll post my thoughts later.
 
They can't do anything important because they have someone totally incompetent in the lead. Compare what OBama did to help healthcare care get passed as to what Trump did.
Only republicans think an unqualified, racist, bigoted, homophobic, sociopathic, narcissistic blow hard is important to politics and policy. I guess you have to decide who you’re willing to take your chances with.

Last I checked, Trump is not a member of congress. I think you two think the president runs the country, I don't. With that in mind I fully understand why you want a single national election for POTUS; that would give POTUS at least the appearance of power and authority you assume that office has.
 
Last I checked, Trump is not a member of congress. I think you two think the president runs the country, I don't. With that in mind I fully understand why you want a single national election for POTUS; that would give POTUS at least the appearance of power and authority you assume that office has.

This coming from a guy who held the previous president responsible for everything.

Wait a sec....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!
 
This coming from a guy who held the previous president responsible for everything.

Wait a sec....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!
Throughout the Bush 43 administration, CO. insisted that presidents don't matter. Then during the Obama administration CO. insisted that little else mattered. Now during the Trump administration presidents don't matter again. You'd almost think this didn't emerge from some disinterested theory of political science.
 
We don't need to explain it. Only liberals think transgenders, Sikhs, a designated victim, and a lawyer who sued police (BTW, I have too), are important to politics and policy. Policy is no longer relevant. The issues will be about people who matter and people who don't matter.
Old.White.Male after viagra fails him.
 
The other thing that drives me nuts is when I talk to seniors on Medicare that are strongly against any kind of government health care but look at me blankly when I tell them that their Medicare, which they like, is government health care.
This reminds me of a story the late Senator George Mc Govern told about how a women in his state of South Dakota gave him hell in agrocery store in 1980 for voting in favor of the PanamaCanal treaty ,then he noticed that she bought her groceries with food stamps that he had helped make sure she could get!
 
Last I checked, Trump is not a member of congress. I think you two think the president runs the country, I don't. With that in mind I fully understand why you want a single national election for POTUS; that would give POTUS at least the appearance of power and authority you assume that office has.

And why the reference to Trump not being in congress like that somehow negates what I posted? Did all the people you mentioned get elected to congress last night or something? I’m pretty sure DAs have absolutely nothing to do with congress.
 
Hillary was toxic. She sank Dems across the board.

Hell, with these recent Saudi arrests, Republicans are claiming on social media that they are tied to Clinton conspiracy theories. Many people are nuts.
I believe you are right about Hillary sinking Dems everywhere.In Indiana it should be interesting to see what happens in 2018 without Trump at the top of the ticket on one side,and Hillary at the top for the Democrats.
 
@Ladoga calls this fake news.
Virginia is a blue state. New Jersey is too. You'd figure Dems should win in states as blue as Virginia. Gillespie, however, ran a campaign that ignored the issues on which he might have made the election competitive at least. Bad candidate, blue state, lose the Governorship by 8!
 
Democrats haven’t had this many seats in the state of Virginia since 1899, so I think it was a HUGE night for Dems in VA.

And NJ has a Republican governor now, so it’s clearly not unprecedented. You can spin this anyway you’d like, but the FACT is that people hate Trump and they’re rejecting the Republicans’ platform.

I’d also add that Democrats won full control of Oregon.

Big night!

Virginia is a blue state. New Jersey is too. You'd figure Dems should win in states as blue as Virginia. Gillespie, however, ran a campaign that ignored the issues on which he might have made the election competitive at least. Bad candidate, blue state, lose the Governorship by 8!
 
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I don't think they "stood up against Trump". I think they thought the proposed reforms were not a good idea.

I sense for you politics is all about groups of people and personalities, and not about policy and ideas.

Thanks for the post. I'll post my thoughts later.
Oh I agree they thought the policies were bad. But so did dozens of other GOP who were afraid to go against Trump, hence the stood up against him remark. Word going around was that most everyone knew it was a bad bill, but were afraid to speak out against it and be the target of a Trump tantrum. Not at all sure what you are talking about in "groups of people and personalities" . I'm mainly about policies, which is why I became a Democrat about 20 years ago. Trump is the only personality that would have prevented me from voting for him, even if his policies aligned with mine. Would never vote for a person with his lack of ethics and morals.
 
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Last I checked, Trump is not a member of congress. I think you two think the president runs the country, I don't. With that in mind I fully understand why you want a single national election for POTUS; that would give POTUS at least the appearance of power and authority you assume that office has.
Maybe you should actually read what I said....you know comparing how President OBama helped to get bills passed as opposed to how everyone knows Trump doesn't even know what's in a bill? Did you miss that part?
 
Virginia is a blue state. New Jersey is too. You'd figure Dems should win in states as blue as Virginia. Gillespie, however, ran a campaign that ignored the issues on which he might have made the election competitive at least. Bad candidate, blue state, lose the Governorship by 8!


VA was not a blue state even a decade ago. In fact was a fairly consistent red state until very recently (last 10 years). Why is it continuing to trend even more and more blue? And what issues exactly were those that he ignored?

Also, in other news...gerrymandering:

 
VA was not a blue state even a decade ago. In fact was a fairly consistent red state until very recently (last 10 years). Why is it continuing to trend even more and more blue? And what issues exactly were those that he ignored?

Also, in other news...gerrymandering:


Our system is set up to allow minority rule. WI is another example of this.
 
Maybe you should actually read what I said....you know comparing how President OBama helped to get bills passed as opposed to how everyone knows Trump doesn't even know what's in a bill? Did you miss that part?
Let's compare the two presidents. Obama did all sorts of good things for the environment and planet earth. Trump has single-handedly taken us back years if not decades and we're now the ONLY country not signing on to the Paris Accords.

Trump is a pure and unadulterated steaming dung heap.
 
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Nope, but the polls were far closer and the Dem tried to give the election away in the last two weeks. So a 9 point win is somewhat impressive.

Perhaps it goes to show how flawed polling is, though you could have looked at Hillary and Trump as a similar example. He had a good-sized lead and even though the polls showed catch-up, they cannot account for physical voter turnout.
 
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